AutumnLeaf

Different from the traditional financial market, the current valuation system for altcoins of different projects is not perfect. On the one hand, due to the rapid upgrade and iteration of the ecosystem, it is difficult for us to judge the development prospects of existing projects. On the other hand, since most altcoins have existed for a relatively short time, long-term price consensus has not yet been formed. Therefore, compared with Bitcoin, the timing of entry must be more rational, and more entry and exit basis should be placed on existing historical data, rather than blindly pursuing HODL at high levels.

I wrote this article on 06/18/24. I think it is time to start building a position in altcoins, provided that 4 conditions are met:

For ordinary investors, the process of participating in a bull market is more painful than consolidation. Since the reversal of the trend will start when no one cares, and since the confirmation of the signal of technical indicators requires sacrificing a large amount of previous gains, the timing of our entry is often when market volatility increases. The advent of a bull market is accompanied by the gradual materialization of the hope for increased wealth. Just like the big cake hanging over your head for years, when it really slowly falls to your mouth, you will find that you are the hungriest at this time. At this time, the greed and fear engraved in human nature will be fully displayed in repeated empty selling, selling, and callbacks.

The biggest weakness of human beings is that the senses in the present always overcome the foresight dominated by logic. I think if you want to do a good job in trading, the first step is to learn to integrate trading into life, feel your instinctive reaction to the environment and changes in things at any time, so as to experience what "human nature" is.
For ordinary people, knowledge accumulation is always the most solid way to improve themselves. However, due to the nature of immediate enjoyment, we are always unable to restrain many current desires, and thus reluctantly give up long-term goals. Take a closer look at the people around you, how many people often talk about losing weight, exercising, learning, quitting smoking and drinking, but never stick to it. Seeing this, you must feel the same, because perhaps you are also confused by these desires, and what I want to say is, calm down and feel these struggles and inner contradictions, because this process of fighting with reason is human nature.

I graduated with a Master's degree in Hong Kong in 2019 and then stayed in Hong Kong to work for a while. Although I have accumulated a certain amount of capital, I have never been satisfied with the current situation of life because of my youth and high expectations. I have been exposed to US stocks since undergraduate. At that time, I didn't have any strategy. I would buy some technology leaders on a whim. After buying, I could keep a normal mind. Due to busy schoolwork, I rarely opened my account. Overall, the account has a good return.

One day, in my boring work, I came up with an idea. Instead of living an ordinary life with a salary every month, why not become a full-time stock trader? From the birth of this idea, everything changed. I quit my job, returned to the mainland and rented a two-bedroom, one-living room apartment, ready to start making a big splash. Since I was a graduate of a financial major, and had obtained the CFA, FRM, and other certificates, I began to have infinite fantasies about my stock trading career every day. However, from the day I quit my job to now, half of the principal has been lost in the back and forth tossing, and daily living expenses have become a daily burden. I believe that most stock traders have also experienced this process, various tactics, various news, from fundamentals to technical aspects, and then from long-term to short-term, or perhaps back to long-term, thinking is jumping, and the account is shrinking.