O caminho trader

Bulls believe this is last dip before altszn
Bears think bull run is over
I spent 10+ hours analyzing all the data: here are all the possible scenarios and when market will turn around 👇🧵

---
1/➮ Right now, it’s really hard to determine what stage of the cycle we’re in:
• On one hand, we haven’t had a true altseason (though we did get a meme season)
• On the other hand, Bitcoin has already surpassed its previous all-time high by 1.5x (or only by 1.5x)
• And on top of that, the bull run has already lasted 12 months since the last ATH - making it already longer than every past bull run
---
Basically, the cycle is broken, making it really hard to figure out what’s next.
There are three possible scenarios (imo):
• This is the final dip before altseason begins (Thrill)
• This is the beginning of the end (Anxiety)
• The cycle is already over (Anger)
---
We are currently between Anger and Depression stages or at Belief/Thrill stage, imo (which is almost the same)
✧ While for many, this becomes the phase of exiting the market, for me, it's a phase of opportunities
✧ Here's my thesis:
---
I can't say that retail is fully trapped yet, and I think bullish sentiment is still strong, so I don't see why MM would make this dip the start of a bear market.
It's important to understand that the market maker's goal is to extract as much money from retail (us) as possible.
---
To do that, the most likely scenario, in my view, is a slow decline over a month or more - just enough to make believers lose hope, but not enough to stop them from FOMOing back into alts later.
That’s why I’m slowly starting to build positions, since I believe there’s still plenty of time and prices will likely go even lower.
Here are all the key factors affecting the market rn and why I think this way:
---
2/➮ Disbelief in Altseason
✧ The prolonged absence of an obvious and straightforward altseason has negatively affected retail investors
✧ Now, it feels like no one believes in altseason anymore
✧ Most have moved to the meme casino, while the rest have simply given up on alts
✧ This has led to a loss of hope, sentiment, and attention
---

3/➮ An excess of scams
✧ Never in any cycle has there been so much scam activity, and so openly at that
✧ Every third celebrity without money is talking about crypto and launching a token on SOL
✧ At the same time, they rug it by -99% within a few days, doing it blatantly
✧ Such events negatively impact sentiment
---
4/➮ Trump - ProCrypto President
✧ Trump gave us huge expectations: bullish on crypto, never sell your Bitcoin, BTC reserve
✧ But in reality, he has now stepped away from crypto and hardly mentions it anymore
✧ This has also negatively affected the market at the moment
✧ However, we remember that the U.S. BTC reserve has already been confirmed
---
5/➮ Bybit's Hack
✧ The biggest hack in crypto history that dumped ETH
✧ Bybit was hacked, and $1.5B in ETH was stolen, which is a huge amount
✧ Hacks always negatively impact both overall sentiment and the market itself
---
6/➮ BTC as a Macro Asset
✧ Everyone still believes that if BTC pumped like this, alts will pump somewhere soon too—but no
✧ BTC has now partly become a macro asset, globally recognized
✧ That's why it can grow, but crypto itself doesn't necessarily follow
✧ On the other hand, when BTC drops, alts drop too
✧ This is due to an oversupply of alts on the market, so it’s crucial to finally understand: alts will pump, BUT definitely not all of them, it's not 2021 anymore. Choose wisely.
---
7/➮ Stablecoin Index
✧ On the other hand, we have the stablecoin index, which is still far from reaching levels seen in previous cycles
✧ This index indicates new capital entering the crypto market
✧ And at the moment, it is only starting to grow
---
8/➮ Global Net Liquidity Index
✧ There's also an indicator that tracks major central banks' assets and FED reserves
✧ Right now, we are witnessing its reversal, which accordingly signals a possible market reversal as well
✧ For now, it’s in correction too
---
9/➮ FTX Payouts
✧ Let’s also remember the FTX payouts, which have already started
✧ In the next couple of weeks, about ~$7B will be paid out, and these will also be reinvested into the market
✧ This will also give a nice boost to the market's growth
---
10/➮ Leading Market Players
✧ The most bullish factor remains that leading market players are actively accumulating
✧ WorldLiberty, Michael Saylor, BlackRock - these leading companies are massively building positions
✧ They are clearly not doing this without a strategy and just for no reason
---

11/➮ Conclusion
✧ Considering all factors and the overall picture, things aren’t as bad as they seem, but the fact remains:
We are currently in the disbelief stage
✧ It's exactly these moments that create the best opportunities
✧ Learn new skills and develop yourself, before the market pump, and find yourself among the winners at the end of this cycle
—

We put a lot of research and work FOR FREE into this thread before reading it.
Very Important : Please follow and Like + Comment and Share this post