Thursday Morning Analysis of Bitcoin Operations on December 19

From the current market perspective, the price of Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen below the key downward support level of 104,000 yesterday, and the bullish recovery momentum is slow. The overall trend shows a strong downward trend, as if the floodgates have been opened. Although the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement at three o'clock in the morning met expectations and had a limited impact on the market, Fed Chairman Powell's speech was like a heavy bomb, delivering a heavy blow to the bulls. He hinted that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down next year, raising concerns in the market about the economic and employment outlook, which has a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market.

From the four-hour chart, the downward support for Bitcoin has clearly been broken, and the Bollinger Bands show a large downward opening, indicating that there is still significant downward space below. This means that the bearish forces are strong, and the likelihood of a price pullback in the future is very high. Therefore, in subsequent operations, it is recommended to focus on short positions.

Trading Suggestions:

Short Bitcoin around 102,000-101,500, targeting down to 100,000-99,000

Short Ether around 3,750-3,700, targeting down to 3,600-3,480 $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #PENGU开盘

The short position was held for a day yesterday, and finally, it reaped big profits early this morning, successfully securing 70,000 in gains.

The big pancake futures went from 105012 to 102548, capturing 2464 points.

The auntie's futures went from 3846 to 3776, capturing 70 points.

Remember, the market is always changing, but the power of following the trend is an unchanging rule.
Let us create a new chapter of wealth together with keen insight and decisive decision-making!

$BTC $ETH #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #加密市场盘整 #PENGU开盘 #加密用户突破1800万

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Outlook

Time: Less than two hours until the important Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Market Outlook:

Data Expectations: Data is expected to be favorable.

Clearing Chart Observation: The current clearing chart is very full, indicating tense market sentiment.

Market Contrarian Expectations: Despite favorable data, the market may exhibit contrarian characteristics, initially dropping before rising.

Trading Strategy:

Long Position Clearing: If Bitcoin drops to 93,800, 2.5 billion of long positions can be cleared.

Market Trend Expectations: The market is expected to rise tonight, with a significant accumulation of short positions.

Short Position Clearing: If the market rises to 115,900, 4 billion of short positions can be cleared.

Market Performance:

Mainstream Currencies: Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed well.

Altcoins: Altcoins have generally performed poorly, with most still at the bottom.

$BTC $ETH #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #加密市场盘整 #PENGU开盘

What secrets lie at the end of trading?

In his youth, Buffett had already conducted in-depth research on technical analysis and the stock market. He wisely pointed out that smart people should avoid over-relying on technical trading. After all, technical analysis is truly subjective. Just like the technical indicators we commonly use, such as MACD and RSI, everyone can interpret and analyze the same chart in vastly different ways, and they are not a universal key that can unlock all market mysteries.

Trading is actually like warfare. The opponents in the market are always changing, and you need to have various tactics to respond. Faced with different market trends, you must be able to calmly provide a counter-strategy, rather than being swept away by market emotions and losing your composure. Livermore once said, "There is nothing new on Wall Street; whatever happens today has happened before, and it will happen again." This statement truly resonates.

In the market, the main players may try to manipulate prices, but don’t forget, their opponents may also be another strong player. If one does not follow economic laws and historical cycles, they are likely to be targeted by the market. Looking at the miserable failures of top financial tycoons and countless hedge funds, we should understand that no one can control the market at will 100%.

There are no two identical leaves in the world, but each leaf must experience the cycle of spring, summer, autumn, and winter. Similarly, the main players cannot escape the natural laws of the market. Whether in prosperity or decline, the market has its inherent logic and rhythm. $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #加密市场盘整 #PENGU开盘 #加密用户突破1800万

The essence of trading is actually a profound dialogue with one's own humanity.

What you think of as trading may involve staring at the screen, relying on various technical indicators and strategies to make buy and sell decisions, as if you are engaged in an intense battle with the market.

But the real world of trading tells you that this is actually an inner battle. You need to overcome your greed, conquer your fears, break free from the impatience when making profits and indecision when facing losses, and avoid the impulse to follow the crowd blindly.

All of this is actually unrelated to the market itself, but deeply rooted in your own heart. Therefore, rather than saying trading is a game against the market, it is more accurate to say that throughout the trading process, we are always fighting against our own human nature. Trading often requires us to act against our innate instincts.

Just like an athlete, if you want to succeed in the trading arena, you need strong psychological qualities, stable emotions, firm beliefs, and strict trading discipline. Of course, opportunities of the times, industry dividends, and a bit of luck are also indispensable.

A successful trading cycle can generally be viewed as composed of 70% good mindset, 20% luck, and 10% trading skills. You need to use that 70% mindset to gain insights into market trends, leverage 20% luck and 10% trading skills to seize opportunities amidst the market waves, and achieve growth in profits. $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #加密市场盘整 #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘

Tonight is strongly bullish, no need for too much talk, a bull market will have multiple pullbacks, and retractions mean going long!
My suggestion is to directly look at the range around 103500-104000.
If it's favorable, reduce positions and go north; small profits for big gains. A rate cut is expected to push towards the 110000 mark. Regardless of how it pulls back, the larger perspective remains bullish. $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #加密市场盘整 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha

Daily Global Forex Market News Summary (December 18)
US Dollar
The US Congress has reached an agreement to provide the necessary funding for the government before March next year.
Euro
The European Central Bank has raised the capital requirement for banks from 11.2% to 11.3% due to risk considerations.
German conservative chancellor candidate Merz has proposed cutting immigration and social spending plans by up to 100 billion euros.
British Pound
Traders expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 63 basis points in 2025 and believe the likelihood of a third rate cut in the same year is less than 50%.
Japanese Yen
The Japanese Parliament has approved a supplemental budget of $90 billion aimed at stimulating the domestic economy.
Other Currency Dynamics
Switzerland: The government has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the next three years and indicated a high level of uncertainty in international trade policies.
India: Market rumors suggest that the Reserve Bank of India may sell dollars to conduct mid-term buy-sell swap transactions.
Australia: The budget deficits for the next three years are expected to be $26.9 billion, $46.9 billion, and $38.4 billion, respectively.
South Korea: The central bank governor stated that if exchange rate fluctuations are abnormal, market intervention will be carried out again. The finance minister emphasized that they will actively respond to excessive fluctuations in the forex market to ensure economic stability.
Sri Lanka: The president expects foreign exchange reserves to reach $15.1 billion by 2028, sufficient to repay current debts.
Thailand: The central bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.25% and forecasts GDP growth rates of 2.7% and 2.9% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Indonesia: The central bank pointed out that capital outflows and the strengthening of the dollar have led to a loss of funds in emerging markets. Due to rising inflation rates, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may slow down. At the same time, the exchange rate policy remains focused on maintaining the stability of the Indonesian rupiah.

Cryptocurrency Trivia

Cost Averaging: Don't be fooled by appearances. For example, if you buy $10,000 when the price is $10 and add another $10,000 when the price is $5, the average cost is $6.67, not $7.5. Understanding this is crucial for position management.

Compound Interest Effect: With a principal of $100,000, earning 1% daily over 250 trading days in a year can grow your assets to $1,323,200. If sustained for two years, your assets could reach tens of millions. The challenge lies in maintaining compounding.

Probability and Take Profit/Stop Loss: With a 60% success rate and a 10% take profit/stop loss each time, after 100 trades, the total return could reach 300%. The key is to strictly execute the trading plan and remain calm.

Controlling Greed: Starting with $10,000, theoretically, earning 10% each time could lead to $1,000,000 in 49 days, over $10,000,000 in 73 days, and over $100,000,000 in 97 days. However, in reality, very few achieve this due to greed leading to failure.

Contract Trading and Position Management: The above techniques are particularly important in contract trading and position management, and should be flexibly applied based on actual circumstances. $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #加密市场盘整 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha

How to Avoid Being 'Fooled' in the Investment Market?

1. Emotional Management: Frequent fluctuations in market prices can easily cause anxiety. At this time, taking deep breaths, calmly analyzing, and maintaining a peaceful mindset is crucial. Don’t let emotions dictate your decisions.

2. Firmly Execute Your Plan: Plan your buying and selling opportunities in advance, and stick to your investment strategy. Don’t be easily swayed by short-term market fluctuations, and avoid following the crowd.

3. Take Timely Breaks: When the market is too volatile, consider temporarily stepping back, giving yourself some time and space, and re-engaging when your mind is clear.

To achieve investment success, adjust your mindset:

Long-Term Perspective: Don’t be misled by small fluctuations in front of you; have a long-term view and see the overall trend of the market.

Maintain Patience: Don’t rush into buying and selling; patiently wait for the best opportunities to come.

Trust Yourself: Stick to your investment plan and don’t let short-term market emotions sway you. Remember, 'holding on' is the key to investing.

Most importantly, you need to have sufficient market knowledge and self-control. Invest calmly and rationally, and you will eventually reap your rewards.

Late tonight, at 03:00 a.m. on the 19th, the results of the rate cut decision will be officially announced. If everything goes as expected, the rate cut is expected to be 25 basis points.

As far as the interest rate environment in January is concerned, the possibility of a rate cut seems relatively low at present, but it is worth noting that Trump may introduce a series of unforeseen variables after taking office, which will affect the market trend.

After the dust settles on the rate cut results, we recommend that investors carefully consider adjusting their contract positions to cope with possible market fluctuations. In particular, considering the policy changes that may be brought about by Trump's inauguration, the altcoin market may usher in new opportunities and challenges. Therefore, friends who hold spot need to remain vigilant and keep up with market trends to avoid missing opportunities or being affected by market fluctuations. $BTC $ETH #加密市场盘整 #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha #USUAL现货开盘预测

The aviation situation fell back and I took advantage of the trend to catch up and successfully pocketed 29,000 oil.

Big Pie Kong 106089 to 105201 gained 888 points

Auntie Kong gained 32 points from 3879 to 3847

Make the new day better or worse, it's all up to you! A bright future is in your hands, you just need to have the courage to seize the opportunity! $BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha #USUAL现货开盘预测 #加密用户突破1800万

Old Xu's Partner Summary Review on December 17

Big Pancake won 3967 iodine with four consecutive victories

Auntie won 102 iodine with three consecutive victories

If you are feeling lost, overwhelmed, and have a limited understanding of technical analysis, struggling to read market changes and find the right time to enter, why not follow in Old Xu's footsteps? Here, Old Xu not only shows you the way but also has a seat prepared for you! $BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha #USUAL现货开盘预测 #加密用户突破1800万

December 18, Wednesday Bitcoin and Ethereum Strategy Analysis

Current market dynamics show that Bitcoin experienced a pullback after reaching a new high yesterday. After multiple tests of the support level below, there are currently no obvious signs of a renewed upward attack. Notably, the gradual weakening of bearish forces has limited the downside potential, while the pressure faced by the upward movement has also relatively eased.

From the daily chart analysis, Bitcoin's overall trend remains firmly above the three-day average price line support. Last night's pullback quickly gained rebound momentum after touching this important moving average line, further validating its effectiveness as a key support level.

Switching to the hourly chart, we can see Bitcoin's price oscillating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. During this process, the weakening of bearish forces has become quite evident. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that during the upcoming midnight period, bulls may seize this favorable opportunity to push the price higher and recover previous losses.

Based on the above analysis, we will continue to adhere to the strategy of buying on dips.

Trading Suggestions:

Buy Bitcoin around 105100-105600, targeting 107500-108000

Buy Ethereum around 3810-3840, targeting 4060-4100 $BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha #USUAL现货开盘预测 #加密用户突破1800万

The large pancake long position successfully closed with a profit of 22,000 oil

The large pancake from 105760 to 106901 gained 1141 points

While you are cutting losses, I am making a fortune! Old Xu's control over the market is like a rehearsed script, as always, effortlessly grasped. $BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #USUAL现货开盘预测 #USUAL现货开盘预测 #加密用户突破1800万

The market continues to decline, successfully capturing 27,000 oil again in the trend.

Bitcoin dropped from 106,725 to 105,705, gaining 1,020 points.

Ether dropped from 3,959 to 3,935, gaining 24 points.

Others have already flipped their positions and made profits, while you still cannot see the direction. How can someone like you, who is always indecisive, make it? If you don't understand the directional layout, you can follow Old Xu's steps; there’s still a bench here! $BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha #USUAL现货开盘预测 #加密用户突破1800万

Successful withdrawal before the flight, capturing 27,000 oil

Big pancake futures from 107795 to 106779, gaining 1116 points

Auntie futures from 3993 to 3967, gaining 26 points

Engaging with the trend and walking alongside Old Xu, there's no need to speculate too much about the future market. Focus on the current market conditions; if you can't seize the opportunities, it doesn't matter how many there are.

$BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高 #PENGU开盘 #币安Alpha #USUAL现货开盘预测 #加密用户突破1800万

Did Lao Xu's strategy today successfully validate that the big coin went long from 105424 to 108366, successfully capturing 2942 points? It's just that Ethereum is a bit disappointing; it didn't move much all day $BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高 #币安Alpha #币安Alpha #USUAL现货开盘预测 #加密用户突破1800万

At 3 AM on the 18th, the interest rate cut policy is about to be implemented, and the following week is Christmas. Currently, the market has mixed opinions on the future trend; whether it will rise or fall has become the focus of heated discussion.

In my view, the potential negative impact of Christmas seems to have been somewhat priced in by the market. Therefore, in the short term, the market may remain relatively stable. After the Christmas holiday, as foreign investment institutions return to work, the market may welcome new vitality and embark on a strong upward trend.

Six Don'ts and Four Holds: Insights into Cryptocurrency Trading

Six Don'ts:

1. Be cautious with coins that are in a continuous downtrend and have not stabilized above the 60-day moving average.

For coins that continue to decline and have not stabilized above the 60-day moving average, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines and wait for reversal signals to appear.

2. Avoid coins that rise after positive news.

A price increase accompanied by positive news often indicates that selling pressure may be gathering, so it should be approached with caution to avoid buying at high prices.

3. Do not chase coins that surge far from the 5-day moving average.

Coins that experience a short-term surge and are far from the 5-day moving average come with heightened risks; chasing these surges should be done carefully to avoid getting trapped at high levels.

4. Be wary of abnormal spikes at high prices.

A sudden large price spike at high levels may indicate that major funds are unloading; do not blindly follow the trend.

5. Stay away from coins with excessively high turnover rates, over 30%.

An unusually high turnover rate indicates serious market divergence, and price fluctuations may intensify; participation should be cautious to avoid getting caught in a volatile range.

6. Be cautious of coins that are forcefully propped up in a sluggish market.

When the overall market is weak, certain coins being forcefully boosted may indicate a false prosperity created by major players, and investors should be wary of subsequent correction risks.

Four Holds:

1. Hold coins when the RSI is between 50-80.

An RSI indicator in the range of 50 to 80 indicates that the coin is in a strong zone; holders should continue to hold and await further appreciation.

2. Patiently hold coins that have jumped up from low levels.

A price jump from a low level is a sign of strong bullish momentum; patience is required to wait for the subsequent release of upward momentum.

3. Firmly hold coins with a clear upward trend.

For coins that have formed a clear upward trend, holders should maintain their positions as the strength of the trend often results in substantial gains.

4. Wait for action when chips are concentrated and intentions of major players are clear.

When chips are highly concentrated in a certain range, it may indicate that major players are preparing to make a move; investors can wait for major players to boost the price and then sell at a high point.

The above strategies aim to help investors make more rational decisions in the complex cryptocurrency market, but it should be noted that the market is ever-changing, and actual operations should be flexibly adjusted according to individual risk tolerance and specific market conditions.

Key economic data and events to watch on December 17, 2024 (Tuesday):

15:00: The UK will release several employment data, including the ILO unemployment rate for the three months ending in October, the unemployment rate for November, and the number of unemployment claims. These data will reflect the health of the UK labor market.
17:00: Germany will publish the December IFO Business Climate Index, which is a key indicator of German businesses' confidence in future economic prospects.
18:00: Germany and the Eurozone will each release the December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, while the Eurozone will also publish the seasonally adjusted trade balance for October. These data will provide further clues about the economic outlook for Germany and the Eurozone.
21:30: Canada will announce the November CPI monthly rate, which is crucial for assessing Canada's inflation level and monetary policy direction.
21:30: The United States will release the November retail sales monthly rate, which is an important indicator of consumer spending and consumer confidence in the US.
22:15: The United States will publish the November industrial production monthly rate, which will reflect the production activity in the US industrial sector.
23:00: The United States will release the December NAHB Housing Market Index and the October commercial inventory monthly rate. The NAHB Housing Market Index is an indicator of the outlook for the US real estate market, while the commercial inventory monthly rate reflects changes in US business inventory levels.
Next day 05:30: The United States will announce the API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 13, which is significant for assessing the supply and demand situation in the US crude oil market and oil price trends.
These data and events will have a significant impact on global financial markets, and investors should pay close attention.