When will BTC's market share peak? When will the altcoin season begin?

BTC.D will peak in the fourth quarter of this year. The previous cycle peaked after the second rate cut, which was also the turning point when the Fed shifted from shrinking its balance sheet to expanding it

It is also easy to understand logically. BTC is to the cryptocurrency world what the US dollar is to foreign exchange. During the QT period, funds flowed into BTC. During the QE period, funds flowed to altcoins, pursuing higher risk returns. 25/26 will be an opportunity for altcoins.

If the United States still does not cut interest rates in September, China may face the following situations!
1. Interest rate cuts, the economy's little cotton-padded jacket: If the United States does not cut interest rates, China will adopt a little cotton-padded jacket strategy, lower bank interest rates, keep the economy warm, and prevent cold currents.
2. Corporate financing, as natural as breathing: With lower interest rates, corporate borrowing is as natural as breathing, easy, and the pace of development is more stable! !
3. Savings move, find new ways out: With low bank interest rates, ordinary people's wallets may have to move, looking for higher-yield investment channels, and market vitality may be stimulated!
4. Mortgage pressure relief, home buyers smile: With interest rate cuts, monthly mortgage payments are reduced, and just-needed home buyers are happy, and the real estate market is expected to usher in a small spring.
5. Monetary policy, flexible as water: If the United States does not cut interest rates, our Chinese monetary policy is as flexible as water, changing with the shape, to ensure that the economy is stable and far-reaching.

6. Investment confidence is steadily recovering: With the interest rate cut and the investment environment optimized, the confidence index of both domestic and foreign investors is steadily recovering.

7. Economic growth, adding wings to fly: The timely adjustment of interest rate policy is like giving wings to the Chinese economy. Even if the external winds and waves are strong, we can still fly steadily!
In addition, remind everyone! The trend of the currency circle is full of uncertainty and challenges, but it also contains potential opportunities. When participating in currency circle investment, investors should fully understand the relevant risks, remain calm and rational, and respond to market changes with a stable strategy!

A sheep leads a group of sheep to the slaughterhouse. No sheep will resist during this period. This is the herd effect. In the bull market, everyone is constantly buying. It is rare to have the courage to withdraw at this time. In the bear market, everyone is withdrawing. It is also rare to have the courage to buy at this time. Not following the crowd is sometimes psychologically unsafe. However, in the long run, the actual benefits are indeed much better than expected.

Two major negatives for SOL, causing market concerns
Talk about the next view of $Sol coin

1: Sol's annual developer conference on September 20, once a year, countdown 6 days, see if there is any hype, good news

2: FTX/Alameda released Sol pledge, a whale sold 177,603 $SOL coins after the pledge was unlocked, and his wallet currently has 7.05 million unsold Sol micros, increasing the selling pressure, a big negative

3: As mentioned before, its PUMPFUN may be banned from US users and sued by the SEC. Most of the local dogs on the SOL chain are supported by this platform, a big negative

In summary, there are currently two negatives and one positive. The current pattern is not very good, and there is no independent market. It is recommended to buy at 132.72, 128.21, position 5.5, target 139, nephew loss 126.47, leverage less than 5 times

The current market view on the Fed's rate cut on September 18 is 25/50 basis points, with a probability of 50% respectively.

If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points on September 19, it may be interpreted by the market as a recession in the short term, thus starting a recession trade with a wave of declines.

But I am firmly bullish in the next six months, because the Fed wants to take the initiative to Before the curve and actively reject economic recession. I will look for opportunities to go all in.

If it cuts by 25 basis points, I have no idea yet, and I need to wait and see, but I still tend to think that the US economy will have a soft landing.

Before the curve: It means that the Fed wants to be ahead of the market and increase the intensity of interest rate cuts before bad economic data is released.

If the differential economic data comes out and further increases the intensity of interest rate cuts, then the stock market and currency circle should have fallen a lot!

每个赛道，甚至每个币都有自己的独立走势，也有自己的高光时刻。
暴涨的时候你在车上，暴跌的时候你希望提前下车了，日落西山你不陪，东山再起你是谁？你只是普通人，不是神仙.

好几个人问我，铭文是不是不行了，
SATS要归零是吧，PIZZA利好也带不动呀，韭菜们越来越难带了。

其实我也能理解，大多数人看表面K线，我主要是看底层逻辑。所以RATS PIZZA这几天低位我还在买入。我炒币基本不看消息，主要看K线走势，看合约数据，看量能。消息能骗我，但是数据不会骗我，这样我成功率高很多。

Looking back at history, after the halving on July 9, 2016, the market experienced 164 days of volatility, then began a real pull-up, and reached the peak of the bull market 518 days after the halving. Similarly, after the halving on May 11, 2020, the market also experienced 161 days of volatility, and then began to pull up, reaching the peak of the bull market 549 days after the halving.

Now, the halving on April 20, 2024 has already occurred, and it has been 146 days. The turning day is coming, and October is usually the best performing month in the market. If we follow the previous pattern, the market is likely to reach the peak of the bull market about 533 days after the halving in 2024, which is expected to be around the third quarter of 2025. This expectation is consistent with the previous market performance range. "

Brothers, the market is indeed not as expected, but we must remain sober and firm in our faith! Every market correction is a prelude to the arrival of a big opportunity. Recalling the past market history, which bull market did not rise when it was least optimistic?

The current fluctuations are just shuffling, eliminating those who are mentally unstable and blindly operating. And the real winners are those who insist and lay out during the downturn.

Remember, the market is always volatile, it will not rise all the time, nor will it fall forever. What we have to do is not to be confused by the ups and downs in front of us, but to strengthen our own strategies, control our positions, and seize opportunities at critical moments.

Now is the best time to accumulate power, adjust our mentality, operate calmly, and then we will have our opportunity!

Be patient and wait, the strong will always be strong! Faith is not only about the rise and fall in front of us, but also about a deep understanding of the overall market trend. The more at this time, the more we must stand firm and seize the future outbreak point!

The start of the bull market requires patience, and the real "flooding" still needs to wait!
Everyone knows that flooding (i.e. interest rate cuts) is the starting point of the bull market! But flooding into the currency circle still requires time and trading volume.
Not only the currency circle, but also major central banks and all walks of life are very eager to cut interest rates!
The arrival of the bull market absolutely requires perfect timing, favorable conditions and joint efforts of all parties.
It is now generally believed that the interest rate cut in September is just the beginning, and the real bull market will continue for a long time in the future!
The real large-scale "flooding" may not start until the new US president takes office, and wait patiently for the real signal of the market!

The number of long-term BTC holders is soaring, approaching the level in February this year. This is a sign that a crazy bull market is about to start. Combined with the market, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18. It was also mentioned during the live broadcast that it is expected that there will be signs of a bull market in October. Therefore, in the fourth quarter of this year, Bitcoin will usher in a wave of big gains. ​​​

This week, Bitcoin gradually stabilized and rebounded after completing its second bottom. Although the rebound process is still very tortuous, the market's money-making effect has improved significantly, which is mainly reflected in two aspects:

1. Although the price of Bitcoin is still hovering at $58,000, 30% of the top 100 coins by market capitalization have returned to the price level of $65,000.

2. From September 5 to September 12, the market share of altcoins increased from 9.13% to 9.8%, and the proportion of daily trading volume also increased from 20.3% to 33.5%. The market continued to ferment.

Historical experience shows that when funds shift from focusing on absolute value to taking into account price elasticity, this often signals that market risk appetite is in a rising stage. With the completion of the mid-term bottom construction, the market gradually enters a stage of moderate recovery.

Although the rebound did not show a dry land-like rise, it is precisely this slow-heating state that verifies the sustainability of the rising market.

What should I do if I get stuck during the transaction? Here are some tips to help me get out of the trap!

1. According to the position you hold
1. If you are a coin friend with a shallow order, you can use the rebound market to get out of the trap, or reduce your position when the price is high.

2. If you are a coin friend with a deep order, you can make a partial position opening operation at a high price or make up for the position to lower the average price, so that you can take the psychological initiative before the market comes.

2. According to the trend status of the purchased currency
1. If the purchased currency is in a downward trend, once the downward trend is confirmed and the trend has been formed, it is recommended to stop loss immediately, and you must not have illusions of gain and loss. Hesitation and hesitation may cause deep traps in the future, which will eventually make it difficult to extricate yourself.

2. If the purchased currency is in a balanced oscillation trend, you don’t have to stop loss immediately. Wait patiently for the currency to enter the high position of the oscillation cycle. Once the trap is untied or the loss is small, you should decisively leave the market.

3. If the purchased currency is in an upward trend, you don’t have to stop loss. If you hold it patiently for a period of time, you will inevitably get out of the trap and even have a greater profit possibility.

There is a simple but effective cryptocurrency trading technique. If you can hold back and achieve unity of knowledge and action, the probability of stable profit is quite high.
The cryptocurrency market is an extremely risky market. Countless originally happy families have been broken because of blind pursuit of huge profits. If investors want to go a long way on this road, they must solidly learn basic knowledge, news analysis and technical indicators.
Without in-depth research and reasonable planning, it will only lead to the exhaustion of funds and eventually leave the market. Although classic technical indicators such as MACD divergence, KDJ overbought and oversold, support and pressure do not guarantee profits, they can help you find the direction in investment.
There is only one way to make 1 million yuan from a few thousand U in the cryptocurrency circle - rolling positions.
Rolling positions are suitable for the following three situations:
Direction selection after long-term sideways trading,
Bottom-hunting after a sharp rise in the bull market,
And breaking through important support or resistance levels at the weekly level. Other opportunities should be abandoned.
Rolling operations include floating profit addition and bottom position + T. When adding to a position with floating profit, you need to ensure that the cost of holding the position is reduced before adding to the position. However, the bottom position + T is divided into multiple positions, and the cost can be reduced and the profit can be increased by selling high and buying low.
The key to success lies in identifying big opportunities and grasping them reasonably

The following sectors can be focused on:
1. AI sector: Artificial intelligence-related projects have great potential.
2. Ethereum ecosystem: Ethereum-related tokens and projects are still hot spots.
3. Layer 2: Ethereum's expansion demand increases, and the second-layer solution may perform outstandingly.
4. Staking and re-staking: Staking tokens may become a hot investment due to their stable income model.
5. New public chain: Emerging public chain projects have the opportunity to gain market recognition.
6. New MEME tokens: When sentiment is high, new MEME tokens have a large room for growth.
7. BN new coins: The new coins launched in the past year have good liquidity and are worth paying attention to.

A fan asked me, will the bull market in the cryptocurrency market come again?
​I think it is meaningless to worry about this now. The cryptocurrency market will always fluctuate. It will not rise all the time, nor will it fall forever!
And what we can do is to be firm in our strategy and control our positions so that we can seize opportunities at critical moments.
​​Now is the best time to accumulate strength, adjust your mentality, operate calmly, and we will have our opportunity next! ​​​

The new normal of the future currency market, what is the new normal is that it is polarized like the US stock market, and the Matthew effect is obvious: the good ones are better and the bad ones are worse. This itself is the embodiment of the market effectiveness as the market size is getting bigger and bigger, and investors are getting more and more mature (more mature external investors enter, and existing internal investors are repeatedly educated).

Looking back at the history of the traditional capital market for a hundred years: the most growth-oriented (narrative) and certain targets will definitely attract the most attention and funds, and most of the remaining stocks in the market will become obscure and become toys for a few capital masters (think about where the "penny stocks" and "shell kings" of Hong Kong stocks come from, and the SPAC gameplay of US stocks back then)

Everyone used to imagine that the cottage season was a chicken and dog rising to the sky. In fact, the cottage season in the future may be limited to the leaders of those main narrative logic sectors, and then most of the small coins may be a wave, coming and going quickly.

In the past, the investment in the currency market focused on timing (the bottom of the big cycle or the starting stage of a big market, and the small coins soared after the big cake led), and in the future, timing and currency selection will be equally important (the importance of target screening is far greater than before)

Now the market is holding its breath waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next Wednesday to be settled. Now the price of the big cake is fluctuating in the range of 55600-58500 in the short term. Try to reduce operations in the next few days! If you want to sell high and buy low, please wait patiently for the price to be in place.

There is a high probability that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points next Wednesday, but even so, the Federal Reserve's interest rate is still high, and the market liquidity is still insufficient in the short term, but the expectations about the future should be reversed. The financial market operates on expectations;

Overall, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next Wednesday will be a short-term positive and a negative, but it will be a positive in the long run. However, it is not ruled out that the main force will smash the market again before and after this, but remember one sentence: the next six months of crazy bull market will definitely come, and all the declines are for higher rises!

In a blink of an eye, it is already mid-September. After Bitcoin hit 73777 in mid-March this year, it has been fluctuating downward all the way. The overall fluctuations are quite violent, with more than 8 ups and downs, and the average fluctuation range is about 17%~32% each time. Basically, it beats the comrades who do not set stop loss for more than 3 times the contract. No matter whether they are long or short, most people cannot make stable money. We don’t know when the overall market will continue to fluctuate. I personally believe that once the whole process of the oscillation and callback of the big cake is over, there will inevitably be a wave of rise to break through 74,000, and the ultimate goal should be 90,000 or 100,000+.
But the most difficult part is the process. Dog dealers have countless ways to wash you out of the car or wash away your funds before reaching the final rising target, and then pull the market. Therefore, in fact, no matter when, protecting the existing funds at the first time is the top priority. Protecting the principal does not mean that you cannot tolerate a little loss, but to protect the majority of the principal. In this way, we have the capital to cope with the future rising market.