Mubai Daily Current Price Order

Direction: Short

Bitcoin: 94000

Ether: 3400

Defense depends on your own position

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12.24 Afternoon Thoughts

Due to the importance of the upcoming holidays for the West, market fluctuations are not expected to be significant. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been under pressure since it surged to 99,000 on Saturday, with the midline currently in play. Bitcoin is moving around 94,000, operating below the MA7 and showing weak downward movement. The current market situation is in a resistance zone after a double bottom formation. Before a complete trend reversal occurs, the market is likely to continue oscillating within a range. If it can successfully break through the key level of 95,000 and establish a significant trend breakthrough, suitable entry opportunities can be sought within the pullback range. If the market can further elevate the bottom, the possibility of a short-term price increase will increase. However, it is important to remain vigilant, as the resistance zone may lead to adjustments at any time. The level of 92,600 was the previous peak of the upward trend and has now become a crucial support level. Typically, if it falls below the point where the previous trend started, the probability of forming a downward trend will significantly increase. Currently, the level of 92,600 serves as a key support area; if it can hold, the hope for a short-term rebound still exists.

Bitcoin: Short around 95,000-95,300, looking down to around 93,000

Ethereum: Short around 3,430-3,460, looking down to around 3,300

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Intra-day Live Sharing

In the morning, Mu Bai mentioned the idea of shorting at highs, and finally seized the opportunity to successfully lead the students to capture Bitcoin: 661 points, Ethereum: 26 points, gaining over 28,000 in profit.
The market isn't very active, so one can only make quick trades. Many people are unsure how to enter and exit in such market conditions. What Mu Bai wants to say is that when you feel confused, perhaps you can find someone to guide you out of that confusion!

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No fear of cryptocurrency pullbacks! "Bitcoin whales" continue to "buy, buy, buy" for the seventh consecutive week.

Despite a significant pullback in cryptocurrency over the past week, "Bitcoin whale" MicroStrategy continues to "buy, buy, buy." The company announced on Monday that it has purchased an additional 5,262 Bitcoins, marking its seventh consecutive week of accumulation.

According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company sold approximately $561 million worth of stock through an ATM (At-the-Market) offering and then used the proceeds to increase its Bitcoin reserves.

The average purchase price last week was around $106,613, slightly below Bitcoin's historical peak of about $108,500.

In October of this year, MicroStrategy stated that it would issue approximately $42 billion in stock and bonds over the next few years to purchase Bitcoin. Since then, the company has accumulated nearly 200,000 Bitcoins, raising the average holding cost from $39,266 in October to about $62,257 now.

MicroStrategy currently holds a total of 444,262 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $62,257, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world.

Although MicroStrategy has realized approximately $41 billion in unrealized gains from betting on Bitcoin, the significant drop in the cryptocurrency could pose risks for the company, especially considering that its main software business is not consistently profitable and the company has already raised over $7 billion through convertible bonds.

Sosnick emphasized that MicroStrategy benefits from a "self-fulfilling feedback loop." The company buys Bitcoin, helping to drive up its price, then sells more debt and equity to buy more Bitcoin, further pushing up the Bitcoin price.

"This kind of thing will not last forever and often ends badly—the question is, 'When?' The short-term answer seems to be 'not yet,'" Sosnick stated.
Since Trump’s election, Bitcoin's price has surged nearly 40%, breaking through $108,000 earlier last week to set a new historical high. However, pressured by the hawkish policy outlook of the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin recently recorded its first weekly decline since Trump’s victory. It is currently hovering around $94,500.

Morning Thoughts on 12.24
Analyzing the performance from the daily and weekly candlesticks, the overall pattern shows an interplay between high-level pullbacks and low-level rebounds. This resembles an intense and exciting tug-of-war, where both bulls and bears engage in fierce competition across different price ranges, with neither side yielding, resulting in the market's movements filled with endless variables and deep suspense.
In the short term, a retest of the 93000 level is underway, which has not been breached yet; if it effectively falls below, the bears will likely continue to push downwards, with a key focus on 92000 below; if the bears find more space, they may directly target the 90000 area for support. Therefore, moving forward, it is advisable to arrange according to short-term patterns, with support at 93000 and resistance at 98000. A slight rebound can prompt the arrangement of short positions; in the morning thoughts, we can short on highs and long on lows!

Bitcoin Trading Recommendation: Short around the rebound of 95300-95500, targeting 93000

Ethereum Trading Recommendation: Short around the rebound of 3450-3470, targeting 3350
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Mubai's weekly summary

Baidu's total score: 13235 points

Ether's total score: 842 points

This week's market fluctuations are still relatively large. Many friends can't grasp the market, miss out or suffer losses. Of course, Mubai is also there. However, what Mubai can do is to try his best to make everyone profitable in this market. No one can win every battle, but Mubai can only give you peace of mind!
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Morning Thoughts on 12.21

From the daily chart perspective, it is clearly in an adjustment cycle. The multiple top divergences on the daily chart make the current adjustment in line with technical trends. Coupled with the stimulating impact from news, the market's risk-averse sentiment is growing stronger. In this context, short-term operations should minimize trading frequency to avoid unnecessary losses caused by blind following.

From the current four-hour structure, the Bitcoin trading volume is gradually decreasing, the MACD is forming a golden cross and running upward, and the KDJ is also moving upward. From the one-hour structure, the Bitcoin trading volume is shrinking.

Bitcoin Recommendation: Short around 97800-98000, looking down to around 96000

Ethereum Recommendation: Short around 3500-3520, looking down to around 3400-3420

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12.20 Summary

Today, Mu Bai has laid out 4 orders, but unfortunately the current price order hit a stop loss.

Total Bitcoin gained: 4624 points, loss of 733 points.

Total Ethereum gained: 293 points, loss of 39 points.
The evening current price order strategy did not go as hoped, but overall today was still not bad, after all, no one can win forever; profit is the ultimate goal. Overall, today's market was indeed volatile, but the pace was too fast for many to grasp, and they were hesitant to enter the market. Therefore, stability is the most important thing. Opportunities are always available; our requirement is to be steady and seek victory!
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Mubai current price welfare list

Direction: short

Big cake: 93500

Ether: 3200

Defense depends on your own position

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Continue to hold patiently. It is really important to enter the market in this market, because the rebound is too fast at any time, so you must grasp the entry and exit. When you can't hold the entry and exit, you may have to think about it. This market is an offensive and defensive battle. It depends on whether you can survive to the end!

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About Unwinding

Many people do not know how to properly unwind their positions.

1. Do not rush to cut losses
When an investment is stuck, do not rush to sell. As long as funds allow, it is advisable to observe market changes temporarily. Market trends are cyclical and there may be opportunities for reversal. Remember, the loss before selling is only on paper and has not actually occurred.

2. Set stop-loss and take-profit levels for yourself. Set a stop-loss baseline, and when losses reach this baseline, decisively sell to stop the loss. This can prevent losses from further expanding. After stopping the loss, you can wait for the market to correct to a better position and then re-enter the market to make up for previous losses, or even achieve a profit.

If you currently have any stuck positions, or do not understand anything, you can come to Mu Bai, who will tailor a unique unwinding plan for you to solve various problems!

First, there is a lack of mastery over basic trading skills. It is repeatedly emphasized that every trade must include both take-profit and stop-loss orders; the vast majority of investment friends do not have this habit. Investment is not speculation; it should be rationally done under the premise of manageable risk.

Intraday real-time trading sharing

In the morning, Mu Bai said that the shorts are still strong recently, so our thinking is still mainly rebound shorts. In the afternoon, we successfully reached the point mentioned by Mu Bai.

This wave of friends successfully won the big cake: 1392 points, ether: 77 points
Harvested 7.8W surplus oil. Mu Bai often said that only by following the market trend can we survive. The direction is right, the thinking is right, and the trend is perfect, then what can stop us from winning!
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12.20 Morning Thoughts

Bitcoin remains weak in the intraday trend, and the trend remains below the moving average. Although it has rebounded to a certain extent, the strength is still not strong, and it has failed to break through the moving average pressure and is suppressed.

Judging from the current daily trend, the K-line has stepped back and directly broke through the middle track support of the daily line. There is still a large space below, and the current trend clearly shows a weak downward trend, so the market will continue to pay attention to the continuation of the short position.

In the short term, the big cake has shown a clear downward trend. The technical indicator MACD also sent an unfavorable signal in this 4-hour cycle. The MACD histogram turned from positive to negative, and the DIF line crossed the DEA line downward. This series of signs all indicate that the main force is continuing to liquidate longs, and the overall trend begins to extend downward around the lower track line.

Bitcoin: Short around 98200-98500 on rebound, look down around 95600-95800

Ether: Short around 3450-3470 on rebound, look down around 3320-3350

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I believe many people have no direction now!

There are also many people who are confused and don’t know what to do

In this market, many people may not know what to do

Those who are trapped and holding orders can’t sleep, and those who are pulled out are unwilling to find an opportunity to enter the market again. The market is turbulent, so the most correct way now is to find someone who can give you confidence to give you guidance.

In fact, it is not terrible to be trapped or exploded. What is terrible is that you don’t have the confidence to fight back. In this market, who has not been trapped and who has not been exploded.

Why others can still survive in this market, have you ever thought about it? So change can make you better in this market!

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12.19 Evening Thoughts

After the morning breakout, the intraday market fell into a bullish rebound and recovery rhythm, showing an overall oscillating slow rise. It recovered from the low of 98744 to the highest level of 102600 in the evening.

From the current market, the big cake fell again after breaking the new high yesterday. The current trend has bottomed out many times and there is no sign of breaking the support below. After the evening correction touched this line, it rebounded quickly, showing strong support.

In the short term, the bulls are slightly dominant, and the current price ratio continues to remain at a high level, and there is not much decline. It rises and closes at a high level, and maintains a high level of volatility. Then it is expected to go through time correction next, so the low point below will not be easily broken. Therefore, there is still a lot of retracement in operation.

Bitcoin is bullish around 100500-101000, and may rise to around 103000-103500

Ether is bullish around 3610-3630, and may rise to around 3750-3800

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Is this considered bottom fishing?

Will it continue to decline?

Given the current situation, the severity of the drop in Bitcoin means that the rebound will not be small, so do not blindly chase shorts. Just because you are bearish, doesn’t mean you should short. Out of the top thirty liquidations across the entire network in the last 24 hours, there was only one short position. So if you were the market maker, would you let so many shorts survive?

Sometimes, blindly following the trend is really a good thing? Yesterday, Mu Bai's bottom fishing failed, losing two trades, but today this trade succeeded, and I am currently still holding it. The market changes frequently, and if you remain unchanging, then you will forever just be a toy in the hands of capital! Therefore, we need to have our own ideas and judgments when trading, not just follow the trend!
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It is estimated that many people are sleepless right now

Everyone is waiting for the interest rate cut meeting results

Of course, Mu Bai is also waiting

On the hourly chart, after three consecutive bearish candles followed by a bullish one, it continuously fails to break the support at 103000. If the result of the interest rate cut is announced and it still cannot break through, then it will definitely rise, even if it breaks the support, Mu Bai still believes it can bottom out at 102000 and wait for subsequent increases!
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Mubai's welfare list today

Direction: long

Bitcoin: 106300

Ether: 3950

Defense depends on your own position!

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2024 Bitcoin Development Report: Global Regulation Clarification, DeFi and Scalability as Dual Drivers

When historians look back at 2024, they may regard it as a significant year for Bitcoin's move towards mainstream acceptance. This year, Bitcoin reached an all-time high, became a hot topic in the U.S. presidential election, 11 Bitcoin ETFs were approved for listing, and the halving event occurred.

This year, Bitcoin showcased its unique charm in multiple facets. In countries struggling with economic difficulties (such as Argentina and Turkey), it was seen as a safe haven against high inflation; in the eyes of Wall Street elites, it became an investment tool recognized by financial giants like BlackRock; for crypto-punks and developers, it was a whole new canvas for innovation; and in the view of governments around the world, it transformed from a threat that needed to be controlled into an opportunity that could be leveraged.

Bitcoin's technology is also continuously evolving. Once centered around the idea of 'simplicity', BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) set a record, achieving $10 billion in assets under management in just a few weeks, with Bitcoin gradually entering retirement portfolios. This phenomenon excited Wall Street but also worried Bitcoin purists. The popularity of ETFs made Bitcoin more accessible than ever—now, 62% of Americans can easily buy Bitcoin through brokerage accounts, just like purchasing Apple stock. However, this convenience also brings issues. The spirit of Bitcoin, 'Not your keys, not your coins', is increasingly overshadowed by the clamor of institutional trading.

However, Bitcoin always finds vitality amidst contradictions. In the U.S., Trump's crypto-friendly policies legitimized Bitcoin as an institutional asset; in India, despite regulatory pressures, 75 million users have adopted Bitcoin as a tool for financial empowerment; in Turkey, with a 50% inflation rate, Bitcoin became a savings choice for millions; while in Argentina, as the currency rapidly depreciated due to 140% inflation, citizens had no time to hesitate over custody methods and instead used Bitcoin to protect their savings. In Latin America and Africa, Bitcoin is not an investment tool but a means of survival.

12.18 Lunch Thoughts
The Fed rate cut is about to land at 3 am on Thursday with a high probability of 25 basis points. Before the good news is about to land, the market has a pullback, which may be a performance of accumulating momentum to rise, and the market still has a need to break the high after the rate cut is landed. This shows that the market has responded to the expectation of the Fed's rate cut, and investors may be making arrangements in advance, waiting for further upward momentum after the rate cut is landed.
After the daily line closed with a cross star K, the white market continued to pull back, but did not fall below the key support. This shows that although there is a pullback pressure, the key support level is still in effect, and the market is in a more delicate state of balance.
After hitting a new high yesterday, the price of the currency fell back to the middle track to stop falling, which shows that the middle track has a certain supporting role. And in this process, the strength remains unchanged, which means that the overall upward trend is still continuing. In the short term, the middle track can be used as support for layout operations.
A wave of upward movement at midnight failed to stand firm near 107,500 for a long time, and then fell back, which reflects that the selling pressure above is strong and the bearish sentiment needs to be released. The waterfall-like decline in the morning was also expected. However, from the four-hour level, the price of the currency rebounded to a certain extent near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. We can observe the support strength of this line in the future, and we can go long when we go back!

It is recommended to go long at 104200 - 104600 for Bitcoin, with a target of 106800

It is recommended to go long at 3800 - 3830 for Ethereum, with a target of 4000

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