财经少华

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For four consecutive weeks, the third place on the Alcoin V ranking list has changed again and again.

Only the world's richest man Musk ranked first and I ranked second have not changed.

I have really become the second place for a thousand years😍😂😅🤭😁

Let's break down the phrase 'buy high, sell low':

'High' refers to the peak, 'sell' is about offloading, 'low' is the bottom, and 'buy' means to accumulate gradually.

'Buy' isn't about gulping down; at the bottom, there's low volume and little hype, so you have to scoop up slowly and stealthily.

Taking profits is trickier than cutting losses; many traders panic-sell but then hesitate to offload when prices rise, ending up on a wild ride.

Keep an eye on coins that hit new highs with low volume, but be cautious of those that reach new highs with excessive volume.

Coins that see rising volume as they dip are likely to have good short-term rebound opportunities, while those that drop on high volume at the peak don’t count.

Learning to stay in cash is even more crucial than knowing when to buy coins.

A sharp drop isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially after a long downtrend; many strong coins are born from such downturns.

Drawing trend lines is simple: connect the peaks with peaks and the troughs with troughs; the coin price will follow that path.

Bitcoin's downward momentum is showing signs of weakening, with several on-chain indicators suggesting that prices have likely hit the bottom. The market is gradually easing out of the sell-off pressure and entering a stable accumulation phase, without yet welcoming a full-blown bull market.

Analysts have highlighted three key bottom signals:

First, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has rebounded sharply from -43 to 20.35, significantly improving the risk-reward structure.

Second, the value held by new buyers has dropped below 7%, a range historically associated with the early stages of a bull market.

Third, there is a continuous flow of funds into derivatives platforms, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment.

Currently, Bitcoin is firmly holding the critical support level at $73,700. If it can maintain this price point, it may target $96,000 next. The low around $60,000 from February this year could serve as the bottom for this adjustment cycle.

Analysis of Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The Fed is unlikely to cut rates for at least another 6 months. The Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices up, inflation remains high, and consumer confidence is low, causing rate cut bets to fall flat and delaying the timing of any cuts.

Surveys show that over half of the economists polled expect the benchmark rate to stay between 3.50%-3.75% by the end of September; 71 expect at least one rate cut this year (with a median of one cut), and nearly a third expect rates to remain unchanged for the entire year (a doubling in proportion).

The testimony of Fed Chair candidate Waller hasn't changed the rate outlook; economists believe that a single decision-maker alone can't shift monetary policy and must build trust within the committee.

These three patterns are all "no-go zones"; when you spot them, don't try to catch a rebound, don't bottom-fish, and don't hesitate—get out first and think later.

1. Descending Resistance: More bearish candles than bullish ones; even if a bullish candle looks like a rebound, the closing price is lower than the opening price of the previous bearish candle—don't chase it.

Descending resistance appears during a downtrend, indicating that the downward trend is firmly established; no matter how hard the bulls struggle, it’s futile.

When you hit a descending resistance and see a bullish candle, don't get too excited. If the next day closes with a bearish candle, it's time to make a quick exit.

2. Headless Guillotine: A massive bearish candle that slices through all short-term, mid-term, and long-term moving averages in one go; the bears are coming in strong.

The headless guillotine typically appears at the end of an upward trend or during a high consolidation phase, with the closing price below three moving averages—it's a classic short signal.

As soon as the headless guillotine appears, don’t hesitate; reduce your position or go completely flat because a significant drop is usually on the horizon.

3. Torrential Downpour: It starts with a medium or large bullish candle, followed by a medium or large bearish candle that opens low and closes even lower, swallowing most of the previous day's bullish candle.

The torrential downpour occurs during an uptrend; the lower the bearish candle's body and the more it swallows, the stronger the trend reversal signal.

Torrential downpour is the exact opposite of the sunrise pattern—one signals a drop, the other a rise, so don’t mix them up.

When can we achieve stable profits? There's only one benchmark: when you're no longer swayed by outside information, no longer predicting price ups and downs, but firmly sticking to your trading system. Patiently wait for that familiar high-probability signal to appear. Once the signal shows up, set your stop-loss decisively and strike with confidence. If you can do this, you'll have the power for stable profits. This isn't some advanced method; the core lies in patience and execution...

Let's talk about the relationship between volume and price again.

Volume leads price; trading cryptocurrencies without looking at volume is like driving without checking the fuel gauge; how far you can go depends on whether the volume is strong enough.

Volume expansion is not the key; the key is that the change in volume can only sustain a gentle increase, otherwise the market cannot go far.

Increased volume at the bottom is definitely a good thing, but it depends on whether it's continuous or periodic; the former indicates a strong market, while the latter indicates consolidation.

The trend of volume changes determines the trend of cryptocurrency prices; only when volume increases can prices rise.

The essence of volume is not about how much has been released, but about who has won; the subsequent trends will show whether the funds that entered earlier made a profit or a loss.

The volume platform is the closing price on the day with the highest trading volume; if the subsequent breakout exceeds this platform, it is an entry point.

Later volume surpasses earlier volume; the volume platform will rise, and every time there is a breakout, it is an opportunity to get on board.

The best type of breakout is a sideways breakout: volume increases during platform building, decreases during adjustments, and then follows up when breaking through, which is very stable.

Strong cryptocurrencies have short adjustment periods and small amplitudes; when there is another volume breakout, it is a good time to chase the trend.

A surge market starts quickly, has a short cycle, and experiences large price increases; it often breaks through with a large bullish candle at the start, allowing for substantial gains.

Three types of topping signals, don't wait until it drops deep to ask whether to cut losses, act as soon as you see the signal.

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A triple top is when three peaks stand in a row; if the price breaks the neckline, hurry and run, don’t wait for a pullback.

When a triple top forms, the trading volume decreases each time, indicating that the bulls are quickly running out of strength.

The signal of a triple top is stronger than that of a double top because the bulls and bears have already tussled several times, and the bulls have been exhausted.

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An inverted V-shaped top indicates that the price rises rapidly and then falls just as quickly; once you see a rapid surge followed by a sudden increase in selling volume, don’t hesitate to sell directly.

Once an inverted V-shaped top forms, the speed of the decline is very fast; waiting to sell after a rebound is basically too late.

The larger the trading volume at the peak of the inverted V-shaped top, the stronger the bearish signal, indicating that many people are running away.

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A rounded top slopes down slowly; when the price stops rising and starts to decline gradually, the last liquidation point is when the decline accelerates.

The longer a rounded top takes to form, the more thoroughly the bulls and bears exchange positions, and the subsequent decline is often larger.

If the trading volume of the rounded top also forms a rounded shape, with price decline and volume increase, it becomes even more dangerous.

The essence of the market is waiting. After the rise, wait for the pullback. After the pullback, wait for support. After support, wait to enter the market. After entering the market, wait for the rise. After patiently waiting, you will find that the market is actually very simple. You just need to remember that the market never punishes those who are patient; it only punishes those driven by emotions. The highest realm of trading is to patiently wait.

How to tell if the shakeout has been cleaned up? Have the chips been 'redistributed' properly? Look for 'support' during the downtrend.

The essence of a shakeout isn't about crashing prices, but about the turnover. If it's a shakeout, during the decline the trading volume shouldn't spike in panic, and there should be clear support at key levels (support zones/platforms), often showing a quick rebound after dips on the intraday charts.

If it's a sell-off, the price drops with increasing volume, no one is buying the dip, and the price keeps sinking lower, with weak rebounds, like 'can't bounce back'.

In a shakeout, there's someone buying and the turnover is happening; in a sell-off, there's no one buying and the price just crashes.

Many traders only focus on the turnover for one day, which is a misconception. You need to observe a few days of moderate turnover (in the 3%-10% range), rather than just one day suddenly spiking over 20%+

The ideal 'cleaned up' state is when chips at high positions are gradually digested, and the turnover rate shows a 'stair-step decrease'. This indicates that floating chips are slowly moving, and the chips are gradually settling.

Look for whether the 'center of gravity' has shifted downwards; this is an often-overlooked but crucial point. During the shakeout phase, prices may oscillate, but the center of gravity remains stable or slowly rises, with each dip's low point being progressively higher.

In a sell-off phase, it may seem like sideways trading, but the highs are getting lower, and the center of gravity is quietly descending. Remember this: a shakeout can shake, but it can't collapse.

How to determine if the shakeout has been cleaned up? In short, don't try to guess if the whales have finished shaking out; instead, watch if the price can hold up when selling pressure appears. You're not focused on how much it drops, but whether the rebound is being suppressed afterward.

Many traders fail to hold positions or sell just before a price increase, not because they misjudged the direction, but because they can't distinguish whether the current oscillation is a shakeout or a sell-off.

When trading gets tough, remember this set of mantras. These phrases are the essence of a decade of trading experience and a million-dollar education from our elders—may you avoid unnecessary detours.

Small rallies lead to big gains. Continuous big rallies? Time to exit decisively.

If there's a minor downtrend, expect a major drop. A sharp drop with low volume is just a scare tactic.

A gradual decline with increasing volume? Bulls should pull out quickly. If the rebound hasn’t peaked, find your entry point.

As long as the pullback holds, feel free to enter the market boldly. A rise with low volume? Expect more pullbacks.

A sharp drop with high volume? Time to go short. A quick drop welcomes a rally, while a swift rise invites a drop.

Bitcoin may have bottomed out, and the risks of quantum computing have been exaggerated

Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor stated at an event held by Mizuho that Bitcoin likely bottomed out around $60,000 in early February, with the bottom being more determined by seller exhaustion than by valuation. He believes that current selling pressure is limited, ETF inflows are absorbing daily supply, and companies reallocating financial assets to Bitcoin are also creating sustained demand.

Saylor predicts that the catalyst for the next bull market will be the establishment of a banking credit and digital credit system built on Bitcoin, which will transform Bitcoin from a non-yielding asset into an engine of the capital market.

Regarding the recent heated discussion about the threat of quantum computing, Saylor believes the risks have been exaggerated, as this threat remains theoretical and may not need to be faced for decades, at which time there will also be solutions.

Talk about left-side trading and right-side trading

We often hear about left-side trading and right-side trading, and it is not easy to understand the difference between them. Today, I will clarify it in a few sentences.

Left-side focuses on winning rates, only taking profits but not cutting losses, buying low and selling high.

Right-side focuses on odds, only cutting losses but not taking profits, moving stop losses.

Left-side looks at fundamentals and valuations, buying in when prices are low, continuously buying as the price falls, believing that the market is just mispricing and that there will be a day of value return.

Right-side looks at technicals and trends, buying in when an upward trend is identified, believing that price encompasses all information.

Relying on rules, trading psychology is not the ultimate solution to problems; it must depend on "the limitations of rules." One should adhere to trading rules as one adheres to the law.

How to identify bull coins using technical analysis

The first thing to look for in bull coins from a technical perspective is the trading volume. In the early stages, the volume should increase steadily, during the mid-stage it should greatly decrease, and in the later stages, if the volume increases while the price stagnates, it’s time to exit.

The saying 'the longer it goes sideways, the higher it can go' holds true; the longer the consolidation period, the greater the upward potential once a breakout occurs.

The best way to drive up bull coins is not through continuous increases, but rather through small upward and downward movements, steadily maintaining above the 5-day moving average, as this kind of trend has the strongest momentum.

Don’t wait until the coin price becomes a hot topic to chase it; by then it is often already at a peak. Quantitative testing shows that chasing hot trends can lead to a 70% loss.

The first characteristic of a strong coin is breaking through an important resistance zone or pattern, such as a box, triangle, or long-term platform; only after breaking through is there potential for profit.

Increasing volume on upward movements and decreasing volume on downward movements indicates significant capital involvement. A washout cannot occur with increasing volume; that is called unloading.

The definition of an upward trend is simple: higher highs and higher lows. Only those coins that meet these criteria are worth watching.

Strong coins typically experience a significant correction during their upward trajectory, usually around 30%-50%. After stabilizing, this marks the starting point for the second wave.

Truly great bull coins will continuously reach new highs; once a trend is established, new highs will follow.

Consolidation patterns are the final adjustments before a surge; when formations like cup and handle, triangular flags, or ascending triangles appear and then break out with increased volume, it is the entry point.

Core Analysis of Bitcoin Price

In the past few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated sharply between $60,000 and $74,000, and the direction of the breakout from this range will determine the market trend. Currently, the macro structure remains bullish, with key support at the 200-week moving average (approximately $59,000).

Looking back at historical cycles, Bitcoin has launched bull markets multiple times after holding above the 200-week moving average, soaring to $20,000 in 2015 after holding, reaching a peak of $69,000 in 2021 after holding in 2019, and rising to $126,000 in 2025 after holding in 2023.

As long as the price of Bitcoin remains above $59,000, every decline is a good buying opportunity, and there is hope for setting a new historical high. If it falls below this moving average, it will officially enter a bear market, or trigger a deeper decline.

What do the bullish and bearish arrangements of moving averages mean?

In simple terms, it is the order of moving averages from top to bottom, which clearly indicates whether the market is strong or weak.

Multiple moving averages from top to bottom are:
Short-term moving average > Medium-term moving average > Long-term moving average
For example: 5 days > 10 days > 20 days > 60 days

Meaning: The upward trend is very strong
Market sentiment: Strong buying power, stock prices rise all the way
Commonly known as: Bull market pattern, strong market

Multiple moving averages from top to bottom are:
Long-term moving average > Medium-term moving average > Short-term moving average
For example: 60 days > 20 days > 10 days > 5 days

Meaning: The downward trend is very strong
Market sentiment: Strong selling power, stock prices fall all the way
Commonly known as: Bear market pattern, weak market

Remember this mnemonic

- From top to bottom: Short → Medium → Long = Bullish, bullish outlook
- From top to bottom: Long → Medium → Short = Bearish, bearish outlook

What is the relationship between price and volume?

First defend then attack

Don't always think about how much money to make; first consider how much loss you can bear.

The most important rule is to avoid large losses. As long as there is no significant loss that damages the account, the candlesticks won't look too bad.