加密交易笔记

A market avalanche triggered by a 'single sentence'
Simply put, this incident is like a 'financial avalanche' occurring in the cryptocurrency world. The cause was a gunshot from the peak (macroeconomic level) (Trump's tariff remarks), which loosened the already unstable snow layer (high-leverage market structure), ultimately triggering a series of collapses and stampedes in the early morning hours (the worst liquidity period).
1. The gunshot from the peak: Trump ignites panic
Event: At 00:00 on October 11, Beijing time, Trump announced that he would impose 'super tariffs' on China, which could reignite the Sino-US trade war.

1. In-depth Interpretation of 'Trump's Strategy' — A Carefully Designed Political Economy Game
1. Goal One: Precise 'Data Strike', Kidnapping the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve's Dependency: The Federal Reserve's decisions heavily rely on economic data, especially the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), JOLTS job openings, unemployment rate, and other labor market data. This data is collected, organized, and published by federal employees from government agencies (such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS).
Artificially Creating Data Distortion: Once the government shuts down, the release of this data will immediately stop. The Federal Reserve will be like 'flying in the dark', losing its most important navigational instrument. This will lead to several serious consequences:

From huge losses to stable profits: A practical manual for crypto trading review
After years of struggling in the crypto market, I have deeply realized one thing: the importance of reviewing trades far exceeds staring at the market for 12 hours a day.
Without a systematic review method, it is difficult to survive for 5 years in a market where BTC fluctuates wildly by tens of thousands of points and altcoins double or halve in a day, let alone achieve stable profits.
The core goal of reviewing: to make money in the future
Reviewing is not about regretting 'if only I had closed that position earlier yesterday', nor is it to prove 'how powerful my strategy is in a bull market'. The sole purpose of reviewing is to enhance your sensitivity to specific market conditions and buying and selling signals, making future trades more profitable.

1. Why should it be linked, but now it 'falls but does not rise'?
The 'core PCE data' is key. This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about. If the data is good (inflation cools down), the market will expect that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates earlier. Lowering interest rates means:
Lower borrowing costs: Companies and investors find it easier to finance, which is beneficial for company expansion and profits, favorable for U.S. stocks.
Funds will seek higher returns: The interest on money in banks decreases, and some funds will flow into the stock market, cryptocurrency, and other risk assets in search of higher returns.
So, the PCE data is favorable → U.S. stocks (S&P, Nasdaq) should rise sharply, which is very reasonable.

1. Core Results of the Meeting: The conservatives achieved a great victory
Rate cut but not enough: The Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) at this meeting in 2025, which is a typical 'defensive rate cut'. Just like a doctor feels that a patient has mild cold symptoms and prescribes some medicine to prevent worsening, rather than immediately administering strong medication.
The dot plot reveals the truth: The latest 'dot plot' from Federal Reserve officials suggests that the pace of rate cuts will slow down in the remaining meetings of 2025. This clearly conveys the central bank's continued high vigilance against inflation and its reluctance to rapidly and significantly cut rates at the pace expected by the market (or Trump).

1. Current situation: Why is everyone "waiting"?
Now the whole world, from Wall Street big shots to Trump, is watching the Federal Reserve. It's like a long-awaited heavy rain, and everyone is waiting for the first drop to fall.
Waiting for what? Waiting for "interest rate cuts."
In simple terms: an interest rate cut means the Federal Reserve decides to lower the cost of borrowing for banks. When banks have lower costs, the loan interest rates for individuals and businesses will also decrease. This is akin to "injecting water" into the entire economy, which can stimulate investment and consumption, benefiting the stock market, real estate, and more.
Why now? Because US inflation (the rate of price increase) has already decreased from its peak, but there are signs of an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve needs to walk a tightrope between "preventing a resurgence of inflation" and "avoiding an economic recession." If they cut rates too late, the economy may experience a "hard landing"; if they cut rates too early, inflation may return.

Making a living through trading? These four money-losing traps must be avoided!
97% of traders have fallen into these traps, with some even losing over 10 million...
I've organized this information, hoping everyone avoids taking detours. Some traps are very hard to escape once you fall into them.
1. Holding on without stopping losses, one wave takes it all
Many people think: 'Being stuck isn't scary; as long as I don't sell, it will eventually go up again.'
Indeed, many times it really does go back up—but this is precisely where the danger lies!
This mindset makes you let your guard down. Once you encounter a one-sided downturn (such as a stock price or cryptocurrency price falling straight down), not stopping losses will leave you with nothing.

Recently, someone in the comments asked:
I really envy you guys, I also want to quit my job and go All in Web3, can you take me with you?
I really can't take people with me. First, my energy is indeed limited, and second, everyone has to walk their own path. However, the question of 'should I go full-time in the crypto field' is worth a serious discussion.
1. Is it a main job or a side job? Don't rush to go 'All in'!
Is it easy to make money in the crypto field?
Sometimes it really is fast. Some people buy a Meme coin and turn $1,000 into $100,000 in a few days — but the reason such stories get spread is precisely that they are rare. Most people earn and lose, or even get stuck.

1. Why hasn't the CPI data stirred any reaction? — Because the answer has already been known!
It's like: Tomorrow the exam results will be released, but you already know from the teacher that you scored 90 points. So when the report card is actually issued, you certainly won't be excited to jump up.
So: The latest CPI (inflation data) has come out, and it's similar to what everyone guessed before (inflation is gradually cooling down). Therefore, the market has no reaction because the result has already been 'digested in advance.' Everyone is no longer concerned about 'how many points were scored,' but rather about 'based on this score, when will the parents (Federal Reserve) give pocket money (interest rate cuts)?'

In summary:
The market was briefly happy due to a good data point (PPI), but whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates doesn't hinge on that, but rather on whether the job market will take a hit. It's likely that in September there will only be a minor rate cut (0.25%) as a precaution, rather than because the economy is genuinely sick.
Role interpretation:
1. Market & Trump: Spectators enjoying the show
Why has market sentiment improved?
Just like today's exam, when I found that the PPI (Producer Price Index) score was better than expected, everyone thought: Oh, the cost pressure has lessened, are things not going to increase in price? So everyone felt very happy.

The focus of the current market has shifted from 'Will there be a rate cut in September?' to 'How significant will the rate cuts be in the coming years?' The key to all of this lies in the 'dot plot' released by the Federal Reserve in September.
Next, let's break it down step by step:
1. Background: Why is market sentiment tense?
Imagine a summer where the weather is hot and stuffy (high interest rate environment), and everyone is looking forward to a refreshing downpour (rate cut) to cool things down. Previously, everyone predicted that the first rain in September would definitely come.
Expecting a cooling: But in recent weeks, the weather forecast has changed. Data shows it doesn't seem as stuffy anymore (inflation has eased but remains stubborn), so people are starting to doubt: 'Can it still rain in September?' Some even worry that if it doesn't rain at all, will the crops (economy) in the fields die of drought (recession)? — This is the process of the market transitioning from discussing 'whether or not to cut rates in September' to 'whether the U.S. economy is in recession.'