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On the chart below, you can see the massive impact of the last FOMC meetings on $BTC . FED FOMC Meeting set for 11:30 pm today, post-market session. Projection: 25 basis points rate cut.
Case 1: If the 25 basis points cut happens, expect a calm market responseâit's already factored in.
Case 2: If there's a surprise 50 basis points cut, we might see a rally. #Bitcoin #FOMC
$BTC - It appears we're witnessing some de-risking activity ahead of the FOMC meeting. The recent surge following the reclaim of the $58k level has been fully retraced. It's challenging to discern how much of this movement is due to organic selling versus the market's reaction to the uncertainty leading up to Wednesday.
To clarify the bias on higher time frames, we remain in a bearish market structure on both the daily and weekly charts. We've been observing consistent lower highs and lower lows since March, with the latest lower high recorded at $65k.
As discussed last week, there was a potential higher low at $53k, which could potentially lead to a market structure break (MSB) if we manage to reclaim the $65k level. However, this development is still pending. At the moment, my stance is more neutral â there was some emerging bullish market structure since hitting $53k, but I would have preferred to see a continuation above $60k. Should we lose the previous higher low at $55.6k, my focus would shift towards seeking short positions targeting new lows.
Tldr; It's advisable to take a step back and 'touch grass' until after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon, given the short-term directional uncertainty. #bitcoin
$SOL - Things are looking pretty rough, to say the least. No matter how you slice it, it's been struggling big time, especially compared to BTC. We might see it dip to 120 or even lower in the next few days. Shorting it has been a goldmine this past week. #solana
$BTC - There's not much more to elaborate on. The bearish outlook has been reinforced as the 62.4K level was breached, presenting a straightforward short opportunity with a swift move back towards 60K. Anticipating further downside shortly. The recent lower high at 70K unfolded precisely as it did before at 72K â a peak at the range's upper limit followed by consecutive days of a downward-only price action. Essentially, it's been effortless profits daily from short positions, especially with triggers at the NYSE open intraday highs. #bitcoin
The inefficiency in $BTC has been filled, and it's retesting the previous breakdown point. I'm keeping an eye on potential short re-entries for $ETH , especially around the key 3200 level, which lines up with this.
I'm not rushing into these trades. Ideally, I'm looking for another lower high between the current level and 67k, and I'll jump in once I see bearish market structure forming from there. #bitcoin #ethereum
The altcoin market is looking pretty rough lately, with many altcoins seeming like they'll keep dropping. Itâs clear there's an edge in shorting these coins because theyâre so weak, no matter what Bitcoin is doing. Todayâs strategy was the same as yesterday's: find Bitcoinâs intraday high and use that candlestick as the stop-loss point for shorting the weaker altcoins.
So, here's where I stand on $BTC : it's been holding up pretty well even though US stocks had a rough day. Right now, I'm feeling pretty neutral about it short-term, but I think the ups and downs will eventually lead to a dip.
I'm not really looking to trade in this crazy market until there's a clear signal. It's super important to stay flexible as things change.
Just a few days ago, I went all-in with my challenge account because I thought the market conditions were just right and fit my strategy. I also put 60% of my total margin into it when I saw similar good conditions.
Now, I'm mostly back to cash, except for a small short position in MKR that's done really well since I first got in. With no clear trends right nowâexcept for a few like SOLâit's smarter to play it safe until the market shows some momentum.
When that happens, it's all about jumping on the opportunity and adjusting your investment size to match. #bitcoin
$BTC - experienced an intraday drop as anticipated from our previous analysis shared on my Discord, accompanied by some temporary fluctuations in $ETH 's relative strength, attributed to the ETF launch, which eventually diminished. Currently, there's a noticeable shift back to $SOL , with $MEW emerging as the standout performer in the market, primarily as a rotational move from $POPCAT. The risk/reward for going long on this isn't particularly appealing as it approaches a 1 billion market cap, but its relative strength makes it a key chart to focus on. The path higher appears less obstructed, judging solely by the price action.
$BTC has now surpassed the 65k mark. Should we observe some bullish market structure above this level, I'll consider entering positions in $PEPE & $SOL .
Additionally, I've identified some compelling triggers for both $MKR and $ZRO, as detailed below. $MKR currently stands as my top conviction holding, buoyed by the recent RWA news and the imminent launch of a rebrand token. I'm particularly keen on increasing my position during any pullbacks to the 2800 / 2675 levels.
It's also worth monitoring $OM and $ONDO for potential bids aligned with the broader narrative. $ZRO presents a straightforward range play opportunity for me. A reclaim of the 4.5 level could significantly propel its value upwards. It's a solid spot play, with a clear invalidation point at the range lows, making it an attractive option for strategic positioning.
$BTC - experienced further upward movement today, and this trend appears robust and sustainable. Currently, there are no indications of weakness, but reclaiming the 65k range would confirm a market structure break (MSB). This level is crucial for several reasons: it's the previous breakdown point, the midpoint of the range, and the location of the last lower high. We saw a precise rejection at this level last night, coinciding with the Ethereum Foundation selling at the peak (once again) and the movement of Mt. Gox funds, which led to a downturn. #Bitcoin
$BTC showing strong bullish CVD on the 30min chart. Notice the CVD (yellow line) making lower lows while $BTC price rises. This indicates large limit buy orders getting filled. Based on this CVD trend, expect a significant upward movement for #Bitcoin soon. đđ #Crypto #BTC
Germanyâs $2 billion Bitcoin sale might not hit $BTC prices hard. Why? Because selling off-market will prevent a crash.
Hereâs the thing: $2 billion in $BTC seems huge, but in a market with a total cap nearing $1 trillion, it's a drop in the ocean. When sold strategically, it barely ripples.
If Saxony's $BTC is sold through OTC deals or in smaller chunks, market impact is minimal. Smart moves by the German government could mean stability, not chaos.
Donât let the headlines fool you. The Bitcoin market is resilient and far from being shaken by a single stateâs liquidation.
Bitcoin currently shows bullish CVD on Binance Futures (many sells but price goes up --> absorption of $BTC sells by large limit $BTC $BTC order). I am still long $54'500 and will keep it open. #bitcoin
In light of the recent news about Mt. Gox and German sales, market makers are shaking things up, triggering a wave of panic selling. The market, which had been stable for about a year, has suddenly broken down. With #BTC plummeting 25% from its peak, it's no wonder people are feeling uneasy. However, there's something unique about the current wave of fear.
The selling pressure of $BTC immense, largely driven by retail panic rather than natural market forces. The primary sources of this sell-off are the Mt. Gox and German sales, and the pressure feels almost engineered. Weâve just experienced one of the biggest $BTC liquidation events in history, second only to the FTX crash in 2022. Back then, Bitcoin stayed flat for months before a significant drop, a pattern weâre seeing repeat itself now.
During the 2022 event, #Bitcoin was stuck around $18,000 before dipping to $16,000, leading to a market depression. Todayâs situation feels eerily similar, suggesting that the same players might be influencing the market again. For experienced traders, these scenarios are ideal for accumulating more BTC. The fear and panic tactics that worked before eventually led to new highs, and we might be on the verge of another such opportunity.
As many investors lose hope, market makers are likely achieving their goal. Personally, I've been holding since $16,000 and continue to buy the dips, viewing these capitulation events as signs of an upcoming reversal.
The recent sell-off likely marks a local bottom. The past year's stability provided excellent entry points, and even now, buying below that level seems advantageous. Despite a shaky start to Q3, we could see a strong recovery ahead.
I'm holding steady and not selling my positions. Now it's up to you to make your move.