三木Trader
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BTC's weak performance should not be shorted, CRCL has rebounded to the top and is about to decline | "Weekly Review/Analysis"
Logically speaking, with the drop in cryptocurrency, CRCL shouldn't be particularly optimistic.
Previously, it quickly rose more than twice from the bottom; one could say it was oversold before, and now the market has a bit of FOMO. However, cryptocurrency has dropped back into the range, and indices like the Nasdaq are also performing poorly. I believe CRCL is completely being supported by sentiment.
Currently, the structure is somewhat lacking. If there are signs of weakness, I will consider shorting some. The bulls who previously bought the dip on CRCL may also take profits and drive it down.
Moreover, the larger cycle has also rebounded to the previous range POC. I'll wait for the smaller cycle to show signs of weakness to find an opportunity to short.
Previously, it quickly rose more than twice from the bottom; one could say it was oversold before, and now the market has a bit of FOMO. However, cryptocurrency has dropped back into the range, and indices like the Nasdaq are also performing poorly. I believe CRCL is completely being supported by sentiment.
Currently, the structure is somewhat lacking. If there are signs of weakness, I will consider shorting some. The bulls who previously bought the dip on CRCL may also take profits and drive it down.
Moreover, the larger cycle has also rebounded to the previous range POC. I'll wait for the smaller cycle to show signs of weakness to find an opportunity to short.
312 was already 6 years ago...
At that time, I had just entered the circle for a little over half a year, and I remember fully investing in BTC spot in early March.
On the afternoon of 312, I was watching the price crash at the company and was completely at a loss.
The volatility during 313 was even more exaggerated.
At that time, I had a few hundred U left on BG, opened a BTC contract, and basically blew up within seconds (because BG defaulted to 100X + isolated margin at that time, I was a bit clueless and also a bit fuzzy on how to modify it).
The volatility was terrifying, but fortunately, the spot recovered my capital after a month.
I hurriedly sold after breaking even, not knowing that the bull market had just begun.
At that time, I had just entered the circle for a little over half a year, and I remember fully investing in BTC spot in early March.
On the afternoon of 312, I was watching the price crash at the company and was completely at a loss.
The volatility during 313 was even more exaggerated.
At that time, I had a few hundred U left on BG, opened a BTC contract, and basically blew up within seconds (because BG defaulted to 100X + isolated margin at that time, I was a bit clueless and also a bit fuzzy on how to modify it).
The volatility was terrifying, but fortunately, the spot recovered my capital after a month.
I hurriedly sold after breaking even, not knowing that the bull market had just begun.
The pitfalls that retail investors are most likely to fall into!——Frequent trading ｜ Anti-liquidation Research Institute | Sanmu
The core logic of doing imitation is to follow the main player
Here, the main player actually refers to the flow of funds
As the flow of funds increases, a strong market appears
This may indicate the possibility of an upward trend
Once the upward trend is completed, the market enters a phase of divergence and volatility
This represents the fact that funds are also in a dilemma
If in a certain variety, the funds are concentrated in the hands of a small number of people
They will consider whether to continue to push the market or to sell directly, depending on which has a higher payoff
Generally speaking, the popularity of imitations is effective
If it's too short, retail investors' attention can't come in
If it's too long, funds become exhausted and the ceiling is limited
Therefore, this is usually why the first phase of imitation is easier to handle
The second and third phases are extremely difficult to manage
However, the space in the first phase is relatively limited compared to the later phases
So most of my decisions are
When there is profit in the first phase, to take out part of the profit to track the second phase
If a variety is particularly strong, it will come quickly
Usually, there are very few who actively participate in the second phase market
Here, the main player actually refers to the flow of funds
As the flow of funds increases, a strong market appears
This may indicate the possibility of an upward trend
Once the upward trend is completed, the market enters a phase of divergence and volatility
This represents the fact that funds are also in a dilemma
If in a certain variety, the funds are concentrated in the hands of a small number of people
They will consider whether to continue to push the market or to sell directly, depending on which has a higher payoff
Generally speaking, the popularity of imitations is effective
If it's too short, retail investors' attention can't come in
If it's too long, funds become exhausted and the ceiling is limited
Therefore, this is usually why the first phase of imitation is easier to handle
The second and third phases are extremely difficult to manage
However, the space in the first phase is relatively limited compared to the later phases
So most of my decisions are
When there is profit in the first phase, to take out part of the profit to track the second phase
If a variety is particularly strong, it will come quickly
Usually, there are very few who actively participate in the second phase market
Synchronize, the premium is gone directly, and the positions are not fully taken.
The rate exists because of the premium, if there is no premium, the rate will also be gone.
So the strategy needs to be adjusted here.
Observe around 12 o'clock, after finishing the rate to see the specific situation, if the current price is maintained, then the rate is probably gone, and we can only liquidate.
The rate exists because of the premium, if there is no premium, the rate will also be gone.
So the strategy needs to be adjusted here.
Observe around 12 o'clock, after finishing the rate to see the specific situation, if the current price is maintained, then the rate is probably gone, and we can only liquidate.
三木Trader
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There may be certain arbitrage opportunities
Taking COIN as an example
The current Binance price is 173.6
The US stock closing price is 175.8
This part of the premium comes from today's geopolitical factors being suppressed
However, before the US stock market opens on Monday at 5 PM (UTC+8)
That is, from now until Monday afternoon, the US stock quotes will not recover
If COIN remains at a negative premium, there is an opportunity for funding rate arbitrage
For example, with the current -1.8%/8H
There is a 7-time charging rate time difference
1.8%*7=12.6% (This is the ideal state; the rate may be adjusted down during this period)
However, it should be noted that stock index futures open at 6 AM on Monday
This could potentially affect market expectations in advance
If being conservative, then directly abandoning the rates at 8 AM and 4 PM on Monday
And directly liquidating positions in the early morning
The risk here is that if geopolitical turmoil intensifies, it may continue to trigger price declines, leading to losses in positions
But using rates to hedge against some losses, the risk should also be relatively controllable
If the market digests these expectations over the weekend, the price fluctuations may not be large
Additionally, there is the issue of market capacity, which can be observed through the order book and positions; if it's not a significant position issue, it should not be large.
Taking COIN as an example
The current Binance price is 173.6
The US stock closing price is 175.8
This part of the premium comes from today's geopolitical factors being suppressed
However, before the US stock market opens on Monday at 5 PM (UTC+8)
That is, from now until Monday afternoon, the US stock quotes will not recover
If COIN remains at a negative premium, there is an opportunity for funding rate arbitrage
For example, with the current -1.8%/8H
There is a 7-time charging rate time difference
1.8%*7=12.6% (This is the ideal state; the rate may be adjusted down during this period)
However, it should be noted that stock index futures open at 6 AM on Monday
This could potentially affect market expectations in advance
If being conservative, then directly abandoning the rates at 8 AM and 4 PM on Monday
And directly liquidating positions in the early morning
The risk here is that if geopolitical turmoil intensifies, it may continue to trigger price declines, leading to losses in positions
But using rates to hedge against some losses, the risk should also be relatively controllable
If the market digests these expectations over the weekend, the price fluctuations may not be large
Additionally, there is the issue of market capacity, which can be observed through the order book and positions; if it's not a significant position issue, it should not be large.
There may be certain arbitrage opportunities
Taking COIN as an example
The current Binance price is 173.6
The US stock closing price is 175.8
This part of the premium comes from today's geopolitical factors being suppressed
However, before the US stock market opens on Monday at 5 PM (UTC+8)
That is, from now until Monday afternoon, the US stock quotes will not recover
If COIN remains at a negative premium, there is an opportunity for funding rate arbitrage
For example, with the current -1.8%/8H
There is a 7-time charging rate time difference
1.8%*7=12.6% (This is the ideal state; the rate may be adjusted down during this period)
However, it should be noted that stock index futures open at 6 AM on Monday
This could potentially affect market expectations in advance
If being conservative, then directly abandoning the rates at 8 AM and 4 PM on Monday
And directly liquidating positions in the early morning
The risk here is that if geopolitical turmoil intensifies, it may continue to trigger price declines, leading to losses in positions
But using rates to hedge against some losses, the risk should also be relatively controllable
If the market digests these expectations over the weekend, the price fluctuations may not be large
Additionally, there is the issue of market capacity, which can be observed through the order book and positions; if it's not a significant position issue, it should not be large.
Taking COIN as an example
The current Binance price is 173.6
The US stock closing price is 175.8
This part of the premium comes from today's geopolitical factors being suppressed
However, before the US stock market opens on Monday at 5 PM (UTC+8)
That is, from now until Monday afternoon, the US stock quotes will not recover
If COIN remains at a negative premium, there is an opportunity for funding rate arbitrage
For example, with the current -1.8%/8H
There is a 7-time charging rate time difference
1.8%*7=12.6% (This is the ideal state; the rate may be adjusted down during this period)
However, it should be noted that stock index futures open at 6 AM on Monday
This could potentially affect market expectations in advance
If being conservative, then directly abandoning the rates at 8 AM and 4 PM on Monday
And directly liquidating positions in the early morning
The risk here is that if geopolitical turmoil intensifies, it may continue to trigger price declines, leading to losses in positions
But using rates to hedge against some losses, the risk should also be relatively controllable
If the market digests these expectations over the weekend, the price fluctuations may not be large
Additionally, there is the issue of market capacity, which can be observed through the order book and positions; if it's not a significant position issue, it should not be large.
三木Trader
·
--
Fighting has begun
The rates for gold and silver in the exchange are extremely high
Due to the US stock market being closed
Funds are heavily shorting US stock assets in the exchange
Causing the rates to turn negative
It is estimated that we will have to wait until the market opens on Monday
For the US stock market quotes to stabilize the premium
The rates for gold and silver in the exchange are extremely high
Due to the US stock market being closed
Funds are heavily shorting US stock assets in the exchange
Causing the rates to turn negative
It is estimated that we will have to wait until the market opens on Monday
For the US stock market quotes to stabilize the premium
Fighting has begun
The rates for gold and silver in the exchange are extremely high
Due to the US stock market being closed
Funds are heavily shorting US stock assets in the exchange
Causing the rates to turn negative
It is estimated that we will have to wait until the market opens on Monday
For the US stock market quotes to stabilize the premium
The rates for gold and silver in the exchange are extremely high
Due to the US stock market being closed
Funds are heavily shorting US stock assets in the exchange
Causing the rates to turn negative
It is estimated that we will have to wait until the market opens on Monday
For the US stock market quotes to stabilize the premium
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