#炒币日记 Let me introduce myself briefly. My name is Sanbai. The purpose of writing this article is to record and review my daily trading experience. And record how you turned over!
I lost 5wu in the last bull market. The reason is very simple. The contract was a black swan and the position was liquidated.
This bull market is starting again with a principal of 14650u. I hope that after this year my goal becomes 10wu.
Now the first month has passed and the current wealth is 19500u
The main profit methods are: Seize the two most familiar mainstream value coins and cash out in low-multiple contract bands
The larger profits include CKB profit of 2000u, Bitcoin contract 1200u, and the rest are miscellaneous and I don’t remember much. I will share the actual offer later.
The current position allocation is planned to be 50% spot copycat and non-mainstream copycat, 5000u contracts, and the rest is used as funds to wait for the market to plummet.
Contract positions are generally opened twice and no more than five times
I plan to take the needle tonight. I plan to take the spot needle #sc . The target point is around 80, and the first section is taken at 85. There is also the WLD needle, the target point is around 5.5, 6.0
If there is no needle, I plan to buy the main position of #sc in two days, about 12000u spot
"Since Trump took office, it feels like the entire cryptocurrency market has become like a frightened bird, all affected by Trump, too sensitive, too focused on short-term news, forgetting the true value of investment. For Bitcoin, entering at $100,000 has a 95% probability of 50% returns this year, holding for 5 years can yield a starting return of 300%, which is much better than traditional markets!"
Bull market escape signal indicator list (simplified version) 1-03 Reject noise and wait patiently, the bull market is still continuing. Today I read Goldman Sachs' latest forecast report for 2025 (the full text is 14,000 words, and I read 3 articles to summarize ten points for you) First, let's talk about the key points: the Fed's interest rate cut nodes and US inflation, employment and GDP 1️⃣GDP growth forecast: Goldman Sachs expects US GDP growth to reach 2.4% in 2025, slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 2.0%, mainly driven by domestic private demand.
2️⃣Federal Reserve policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the final interest rate will reach 3.5-3.75%. They are: a 25 basis point cut in March, followed by two more cuts in June and September.
3️⃣Core PCE inflation rate: Core PCE inflation is expected to decline from 2.8% to 2.1% by the end of 2025, and may rise to 2.4% if tariffs are taken into account.
4️⃣Consumer spending: Consumer spending growth is expected to remain solid, supported by a healthy labor market and wealth effects.
5️⃣Labor market: The labor market is expected to remain strong, with the unemployment rate falling slightly to 4% by the end of 2025.
6️⃣Policy changes: Policy changes under the Trump administration are expected to have a slight drag on growth in 2025, but will have a positive impact in 2026.
7️⃣Immigration policy: Net immigration is expected to slow to about 750,000 per year, and tighter immigration policies will have an impact on the labor market and economic growth.
8️⃣Tariff policy: The United States is expected to impose tariffs on Chinese imports and automobiles, but does not expect to implement comprehensive general tariffs.
9️⃣Fiscal deficit: Congress is not expected to significantly reduce the main deficit, and the 2017 tax cuts are expected to be fully extended.
🔟Economic and financial outlook: Provides detailed forecast data including GDP, consumer spending, housing market, inflation, labor market and government finances.
I checked Goldman Sachs' historical forecasts, and the accuracy rate in the past four years is 78%. You can refer to it. Generally speaking, it is more bullish than bearish for the crypto market. #BTCUSDT
About my decision to quit the Internet and choose fixed investment
Q1: I am thinking about where I am better than the majority of retail investors and institutions?
A1: I have patience and can use time to exchange large cycles for small cycles So I choose this way to invest
Q2: Why choose fixed investment?
A2: I think ETH is one of the best assets in the world and is rising. Its yield can outperform the 10% annualized return of the Nasdaq index. I think it can at least give me an annualized return of 20%
Q3: How much money do I get?
A3: All in, income and expenses are as follows, the rest is all in
Q4: Why choose ETH?
A4: ETH is legal and compliant, and it is the second largest. I am optimistic about it in the future.
Q5: What is the expected return?
A5: In the following figure
Q6: What do I think is the biggest difficulty?
A6: Can I insist on regular investment? Can I not make stupid operations?
I will publish a diary to supervise the persistence of regular investment.
Finally, I will give myself a word.
It is not terrible to do something wrong, but it is terrible to be afraid to do it.
Summary written on the breakthrough of 100,000 for big pancakes
Currently holding 58,800 USDT, in cash, waiting for the annual major drop to buy the dip, otherwise staying on the sidelines
From losing 120,000 last year, to the major drop in March and April this year, then taking out a loan of 250,000, followed by the exchange rate against going long, with a loss rate reaching 80%, and now returning to break even, I feel like I've been through too much
The most thrilling thing I've experienced this year is trading BTC and ETH against the exchange rate, which made me look foolish, with my assets dropping to a low of 16,000 USDT, but fortunately, everything has come back since then
The smartest thing I did this year was buying BTC at 65,000, and then selling it all at 92,800
The most prudent decision I made this year was only trading spot and not engaging in contracts
However, being in cash a bit too early, but I feel there's no rush; I always believe the most important thing in spot trading is to have patience, and then buy the dip during the real annual major drop, staying still at other times
Let's wait. If there is a correction next year, then I will likely be able to double my assets to 100,000 USDT If there is no correction, I will just sit and wait for a year, eating nothing
Let me talk about my underlying logic. When you find that you have money again, you can increase your position with floating profits. You can make money easily when your position will never be liquidated
So under this premise, whose money are you making in the market?
Is it okay for Wall Street to harvest retail investors? Then whose money am I making?
Understanding this premise, I know that I can only make friends with time I firmly believe that the glory of BTC will rise again, and there will be new leeks and big financial groups who recognize BTC, and I! Will definitely win!
#比特币大会 #BTC☀ For ordinary people, the good opportunity has been lost. For traditional funds, they usually don’t release the eagle until they see the rabbit.
But it’s hard to get good news now. There is no turning back!