A complete operating system, or operating rules, contains answers to the following five questions: 1. What currency to buy? (Choose the trend state that matches your own style based on the trend shape). 2. When to buy? (Signal criteria for entry) 3. How much to buy? (This is easy to understand) 4. How to buy (entering steps determined based on risk management principles) 5. Exit. First of all, everyone needs to truly understand a concept: currency speculation and gambling are almost the same. Every time you enter the market, the probability of failure is almost the same as the probability of success. If it is a trend following trading style, the number of failures is far more than the probability of success. Therefore, there is no "must-win" technology. Every technical method, you When using intervention, you must be mentally prepared that it may be wrong this time. Only in this way can you truly establish a sense of risk. Of course, you may be tired of hearing more principled things. Let’s illustrate with examples. First of all, this method is trend following trading, which means it does not participate in sideways trends; of course you may ask, how do I determine whether it is sideways or a trend? It's very simple. Everyone has different habits when looking at a line. Some may like to look at the MA99 line, while others like the MA60 line or other lines. It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter. My habit is MA99 line. This line is used to observe and confirm the current trend. If the slope is upward, it is the direction of long, and if it is downward, it is the direction of short. If it is horizontal, it is sideways. Very simple, right? It is very simple in the first place, but people who speculate are smart people, and smart people will not accept simple methods, because if they are simple, they cannot reflect their intellectual advantages, so they have invented a bunch of professional terms and dazzling technologies. method. But we play coins to make money, not to show off our IQ. Anyone who shows off their IQ in the speculative market will die quickly. Okay, no more nonsense, let’s get back to the topic. PS: I found that many of my friends who play currency don’t even know the most basic moving average. It’s really bold, but it doesn’t matter. The following chart is combined with the whiteboard, and the rookie whiteboard can also understand it. . Use the slope direction of an average line as a filter to filter out most sideways trends. Because I am a trend trader and only participate in trend markets. I chose the MA99 line for this line, and my operation time period is 4 hours.Of course, my later revised method is to add a trend line. Although the moving average itself is a trend line, the moving average lags behind. Everyone understands that the purpose of adding a trend line is to increase profits without increasing risks. The trend line is a straight line, so it is more sensitive than the moving average in terms of trend reversal. Of course, there will be more false signals, so risk management is very important. First of all, the first step is to divide your funds into 4 equal parts (actually, I would say divide it into 5 or even 10 parts, considering that most people’s funds are not large, and virtual currencies are not like futures and stocks, which have a negative correlation. The sector exists, so there is no need, 4 copies are enough, the purpose is to spread the risk). Each share corresponds to a trading pair. In other words, your investment in each trading pair is a share of capital (1/4), and your total capital can buy 4 trading pairs. Then, in the second step, every time you trade a trading pair, the funds are divided into two parts. For example, if you have 100,000 U, divide it into four equal parts. Each part is 25,000 U. When you trade with a share of 25,000 U, , the 25,000U is divided into 2 equal parts, each part is 12,500U. ,,Okay, the dispersion of funds is completed, now it’s time to do the work. Now, a certain trading pair has the first signal to enter the market (the downward or upward trend line is broken, resulting in multiple K lines moving sideways). This situation is the first signal. Buy at 12500U, for example, as shown below: This It's LINKUSDT. The computer version of binance is very annoying. I can't take screenshots. Once I take a screenshot, it's hidden. I had to take a photo. The pixels are a little off, but fortunately I can see it clearly. The first signal is that the downward trend line is broken and multiple K lines move sideways (preferably a small entity K line with a shadow line). There are two breakthroughs in the picture above. The first one is marked A, but it is not a horizontal shift of the K line, so it does not count, because any movement, except for the water droplets of the Trisolaran man, without an acute angle turn, will have a buffer and transition. Of course, it doesn't matter even if it is a signal. At most, it will lose 1% (relative to the total principal) once, it doesn't matter. Let's just take it as such here. Okay, mark point A broke through the downtrend line, we bought 12500U at the highest cross K line (18.968), the initial stop loss standard is as follows, the maximum is equivalent to 1% of the total principal, That is, 1000U is 8% compared to 12500U;This should be combined with the previous low. If the previous low is far away and exceeds 8%, set it as 8%. If it is less than 8%, set it a little lower than the previous low. Please note that the stop loss trigger is based on the closing price. Accurate. The previous low price was 18.005, and the stop loss was a little lower, set at 17.98. We saw that the closing price of the K-line that fell below was 18.021. It broke through the previous low but the closing was not triggered. Do you want to go? Of course, go because the previous low has been broken. Then based on the closing price of 18.021, the entry price is 18.968, and the difference is 0.947. The percentage is about 4.9%, less than 8%, and the loss is 624U, which is within the expected risk range. Now, we need to correct the trend line so that the trend line passes through point A. Compared with the original trend line, the angle becomes smaller, which is beneficial to us. This means that the next breakthrough of the trend line will be greater. Looking at the picture above, the revised trend line has been broken again. The originally allocated funds of 25,000U minus the previous loss of 624U are still 24,376U. After being divided into two equal parts, each share is 12,188U. We enter the market at a price of 18.291 for one share. The loss price is set at 18.58 below the previous low, and the trigger loss ratio is about 1.6%, that is, 160U (relative to 12188), which is still far from the maximum stop loss ratio of 8%. Then, we track and observe, and as long as the stop loss is not triggered, we wait for the second signal to appear. The second signal is: the MA99 line goes flat and then rises significantly, the price stands above the MA99 line and closes below the recent high. In the picture above, the price is on the line and has risen above the previous high. The second lot of 12188U was bought at the price of 18.992. At this point, the first portion of the original four deciles has been purchased. The stop loss price at this time is set at the low point closest to the MA99 line. Of course, you can also set it at the previous low point that broke the MA99 line, as long as the range does not exceed 8% of 18.992 yuan. Now, let’s look at this position. Our first purchase price was 18.291. By the second signal price of 18.992, 3.8% of 12188U, or 467U, had been generated. If the stop loss is triggered at this time, the price will close below 18.386, for example 18.2 yuan, the second loss is 4.2%, that is, 508U, which offsets the profit of the first signal 467, resulting in a loss of 41.2U, which is basically zero risk. What remains is that we continue to move the stop loss level upwards, based on the latest low. If the closing price falls below the previous low, all positions will be cleared.At this time, we can use the same method and steps to find other qualified trading pairs, buy the second amount of funds, and then the third and fourth amounts until all are purchased. The future work is to monitor whether the prices of the four trading pairs have fallen below the previous low. If not, hold the price. If it falls below, liquidate the position that fell below, and use the money from the liquidation to find other qualified transactions. Yes, scrolling like this. We can see that the price did not fall below the previous low until here, and all positions were cleared at the price of 20.245. Let’s take a look at the profitability of this position: the first purchase price is 18.291 and the second purchase price is 18.992. The clearance of the two funds plus both are 20.245, then: (20.245-18.291)/18.291=10.68%(20.245- 18.992)/18.992=6.59%[(12188*10.68%)+(12188*6.59%)]/25000=11.4% This position obtained 11.4% profit, which is about 2850U, which is a 2.85% profit compared to the total principal of 100,000U Rate. If we calculate based on the stop loss amount of 1000U (1R) for each intervention, we will get close to 3R profit from this operation. Of course, I have tried to use the rising trend line to fall below the clearing strategy instead of waiting for it to fall below the previous low, but there is a big problem. It goes against the principles of trend trading style. Trend trading is based on about 30% of the profit times. Eradicate 70% of losses; if you follow the trend line and take profit to clear out, you will often miss the big trend. For example, after falling below the trend line, it will trade sideways for more than ten K lines, then rise strongly, and finally double. For example, if it falls below the take profit according to the trend line this time, it will sell at around 21 yuan, and the profit will be much higher. However, if it falls below the trend line this time but does not break the previous low, it will then rise all the way up to 25 yuan or even 30 yuan. Woolen cloth? You will miss most of the profit trends. Therefore, it is still adjusted later to take profit and stop loss according to the price breaking the previous low. The most difficult thing for trend following traders is that they often watch a large portion of their profits disappear. For example, the highest price this time reached 21 yuan, and when it reached the clearing price, it dropped by almost 1U, resulting in a profit of nearly 6 points. there is none left. This is actually quite good. Sometimes the profit is at a high point, such as 50 yuan, and the low price before falling below is 30 yuan. If the profit is 20 yuan, 40% of the profit is gone. But there is no way around this, because in currency speculation, we cannot guess the trend, we can only see it. The fate of trend trading is to lose more times than make profits. Even if there are filter conditions, it is amazing to reach 64 open, 60% of transactions For losses, 40% of transactions are profitable, so the amount of profit must be greater than the amount of loss, so that we can beat the market in the long term. If we guess the high point and the low point, we are dead.According to probability, your probability of guessing the high point and location is about 1/1000 of your probability of winning the first prize of the Shuangseqiu - that is also a probability of one in ten thousand, which is smaller than your probability of getting into a car accident. You may ask, why do funds need to be divided into four parts to buy four trading pairs? Can't I add a position to one trading pair in four times? It also has the effect of spreading risks. It's okay, but you often end up adding more positions, because adding positions three or four times means hitting new highs three or four times. This kind of big trend is relatively rare. We must not only diversify risks, but also improve capital efficiency, right? With only one trading pair, half or 1/3 of the funds will be wasted by sleeping for a long time. If you increase the initial position principal, the risk will be magnified. Therefore, simply diversify horizontally and increase trading pairs. This article is over and will be continued. Remember to like and follow. Wish you big profits! #炒币到底多少本金合适 #技术分析 #技术面 #BTC #sol $BTC $ETH $BNB

Currency speculation is gambling. Odds are very important. Whether you are speculating on currencies, stocks or foreign exchange futures, there is a very paradoxical thing. If you truly understand that these speculative activities are essentially gambling, you will not become a gambler. Only then can you make a profit. Once you think you are investing, it is basically the difference between dying early and dying late. Currency speculation is essentially the same as gambling. The difference is that traditional gambling odds are limited, while for currency speculation or other subjects, the odds are not limited. In theory, there are unlimited odds. I see that most of the people discussing currency speculation in community squares are technical analysis types; in fact, technical analysis is a piece of shit; the trend cannot be analyzed at all, and there is no need to analyze it; the movement of prices is actually very random, and all technical methods and technical indicators are like entanglement. What Zen talks about in the book is just a classification tool, used to classify what can be done and what cannot be done. It does not have a predictive function in itself. People who play with technology have a single-minded thinking, that is, if a certain form or a certain condition of a certain indicator appears, it will definitely rise or fall; maybe they have never really verified the superstitious technical methods at hand; as long as you have some time , you are willing to find the historical trend of several coins, pull it back for a period, and then push the K lines to the right one by one. Mark the places that match your "must rise" and "must fall", and then go back and make a simple Statistics will reveal that the probability of it being accurate or inaccurate is basically half and half. The so-called technology is just a means of classification. To distinguish between what can be done and what cannot be done, it refers to which coins can be involved at the moment under the technical indicators you are familiar with. Please note that this is not analysis. The so-called analysis refers to what you can do based on this technology. Signals are used to predict trends, and trends are unpredictable. For example, my habit is that for most trading pairs, a basic requirement for going long is that the slope of the MA99 line must be obviously upward or downward. If it is upward, then go long, and if it is downward, then go short; and this is not true at all. It needs to be analyzed. Even if you are 800 degrees myopic, it is clear at a glance whether the line curves downward or upward. Just like those who use the dual moving average system, if the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average, the direction is long, and the long-term moving average crosses below the short-term moving average, the direction is short;Whether or not you have traveled through time is something that can be seen clearly at a glance, and does not require analysis at all. Of course, if the MA99 line curves up, it does not necessarily mean that it will rise; if it curves downward, it does not necessarily mean that it will fall; similarly, if the short moving average crosses the long moving average, it does not necessarily mean that it will rise; if we have a gambling mentality, we will look at it from the perspective of probability. Consider every intervention. For example, the MA99 line is rising, the price is on the line and breaks through the previous high point, which meets the intervention standards. Please note, don’t refute me again and say that this is still technical analysis; again, the so-called analysis refers to your analysis based on technical indicators. To predict, and I don't have any prediction here, only classification. That is to say, for me, whether to go long or short, the classification standard is that the MA99 line is rising or has gone up, and the price is running on the line and breaking through the previous high point. This meets the standard of being able to do long work; however, it can only be done at the moment. That is to say, for now, it seems that it can be done, but it is very likely that the price will fall below the MA99 line again and the price will fall back to the previous high. Next; it becomes impossible to do it. This is possible, and the possibility is not small. If we have a gambling mentality, we know that the probability of the next big opening and small opening is the same, so every intervention must establish a firewall, which is the so-called stop loss point. Of course, everyone knows the stop loss point. , but if you just rely on setting a stop loss, it is difficult to make a profit, especially the trend following type of trading style; the characteristic of the trend following type of trading is that the number of losses exceeds the number of profits, and the key to profit is through one or two The next largest rising or falling market will smooth out most losses, so how to control the proportion of most losses depends on fund management. In gambling terms, winning money depends on winning versus losing; only in this way can you get high odds. Almost all successful traders use a split position plan, or a batch plan; only in this way can the risk be controlled within an acceptable range. Because every time you intervene, especially trend-following type transactions, the probability of failure is higher than the probability of success. After all, the probability of sharp rises and sharp falls is far less than the probability of sideways trading. If the capital invested in the first position is too large, several failures will cause a sharp retracement of your principal. When the trend comes later, you will not have many bullets left.Assume that your principal is 100,000 U, and you enter all your positions every time you intervene. Even if you set a stop loss of 5 points, you will suffer 10 consecutive losses (this situation is not uncommon). You have lost half of your principal. Even if there is a big trend later and you get 100% profit, you will just be back to the starting point. If your first position only involves 30% of the principal, the stop loss is 5 points (for me, it is 7 points), and the 5 points of the first position of 30,000 U is a loss of 1.5% relative to the total principal of 100,000 U. 10 consecutive losses are only 15%, or even none. If you adopt the anti-equivalent martingale method, that is, 30% is a fixed ratio. 30% of 100,000 U is 30,000 U. After a loss of 1.5%, The principal is 98500U, and the first position for the next intervention is 30% of 98500, which is 29550U, and so on. If the trend is in line with your expectations, such as going long, and the price rises after intervention, and breaks through the previous high point again and stabilizes, then increase the position by 30% and set a stop loss as well. Generally speaking, because you have already made a profit when you increase the position, The stop loss point can be relaxed to obtain a buffer for the callback, such as a position slightly below the previous low (because sometimes the entry price after breaking through the high point is more than 5% from the previous low), of course, it can also be based on the profit Set stop loss according to the situation. For example, when adding a position, if the first position has gained 10% profit, which is 3000U, and the second position is added to 30,000U, the total investment is already 60,000U. You can still set a stop loss ratio of 5%. If If it is triggered, the loss is 3000U, which is a tie (handling fees and the like are ignored for now). In other words, the risk you face in each transaction is a 1.5% loss; as long as the trend after opening the first position is in line with expectations and the standard for adding a position is met, you will not lose money. When you encounter a good trend, you add two more positions. Of course, the proportion of each subsequent increase should not exceed the previous position. At the same time, move the stop loss position upward. During a large rising market, you can almost add to the full position. In other words, all your risks are in the period from the establishment of the first position to the period before meeting the requirements for adding a position. The maximum risk is 1.5%; as a certain book writes, the amount of profit is given to you by the market. You can't force it, but you can decide how much you lose; using small losses to make big profits is the key to beating the market in the long term. This is winning versus losing in gambling, and this is how to get high odds.The harm of technical analysis in making predictions is that you cannot control losses. Even if you set a stop loss of 5% or 10%, it is useless, because after analysis, you think it will rise or fall. When the stop loss price is triggered, you Basically, it won’t go because you think it will go back to the direction you want it to go. What’s more terrible is that you were right the first few times. As a result, a small loss turned into a deep set, or even a big collapse. You More than half or even 90% of the money earned exactly 100 times will be lost due to this crash. In gambling terms, it takes ten years to chop wood and burn it every day. Any technical means has its suitable market environment. MACD will fail in non-trend markets and produce a large number of false signals. Indicators such as RSI are useless in trend markets, so don’t be superstitious about technical analysis. No method can be applied to all market conditions. All technical methods are like the so-called technology of gambling. If you win, you will lose, and if you lose, you will win. No matter how happy you win in the front, you will lose badly in the future. And You never know when you will win and when you will lose; the yin and yang cycle, the alternation of black and white, there is no absolute rule, this is probability. Therefore, if you want to win money, you can only lose less when you lose and win more when you win. #技术分析 #炒币到底多少本金合适 #炒币日记 #比特币交易 $BTC $BNB $ETH