Rich Sailor

In the last 24 hours, BTC has shown positive dynamics.

There is a slight increase in the market; Bitcoin has traded sideways long, and altcoins have also increased a bit against this backdrop.

But one should not be deceived by this; we can just as quickly pull back.

Meanwhile, on Polymarket, the probability of BTC dropping to the area of 50.000$ this year is already at 60%.

And I completely agree with this figure, as liquidity from below still remains, and we need to collect it. This scenario fits perfectly into the bear concept.

For now, there is no need to rush to conclusions; it’s better to just observe from the sidelines.

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Capitulation of a large whale.

A large over-the-counter investor, who bought significant amounts of #BTC and #ETH at the beginning of the market decline, seems to have sold 23,500 $ETH (47.77 million dollars) to pay off his loans.

From January 8 to February 2, he purchased 163,405 #ETH (440 million dollars) at an average price of $2691. From February 2 to February 5, he bought 4,000 #cbBTC (296 million dollars) at an average price of $74,004. His current loss amounts to $135 million.

As you can see, things are quite bad for everyone right now.

BTC fell below $70,000.

The market continues to correct against everything that can be imagined. There are dozens of reasons, without exaggeration. There are no rising assets among the top 100, everything is falling. The fear and greed index shows extreme fear.

Almost everyone is sure that the bear cycle has begun and this is the moment when the crowd is most likely not mistaken. Across all altcoins, there is potential for a decline of at least 50%.

Overall, the 4-year cycle continues and based on it - we are facing another 12 to 16 months of decline.

The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 14 points

There is fear in the market now, Bitcoin has closed 4 months in a row in the red, and another work week has started for us with a decline in the asset and another dip in the area of $75,000.

In the last 24 hours, positions of traders worth about $750 million have been liquidated, the seller continues to exert pressure, and we do not observe active buying from the buyer, so we are likely to continue the downward trend towards $72,000.

We cannot fall endlessly, so there is no need to despair; soon the asset will find the bottom and we will realize a reversal. Now is an excellent time to pick up altcoins at lows, but be extremely cautious with futures and do not overestimate risks.

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Is the year 2008 repeating?

Yesterday, a historic event occurred - precious metals repeated the record drop of 2008. Silver lost more than 35% in a day, platinum more than 20%, gold more than 15%.

The cycle cannot continue forever, and when gold is sold with a 50% markup in ETF structures - it is a clear signal of the beginning of a correction.

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What is the most popular blockchain?

Gradually, we can summarize the year. The most popular blockchain in 2025 was SOL. The network accounted for 26% of global interest in trends. Many memes and shields were launched on Solana, including TRUMP.

Base is in second place and only in third is ETH. The full list is visible in the photo. Solana has been the most popular and in-demand blockchain for the second consecutive year.

I remember how at the peak of the bear market in 2023, everyone was burying the project, but I wrote that the blockchain and network were functioning and growing metrically, which left many in complete bewilderment. Currently, the coin is undergoing a general market correction, but I think it won't last long.

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The Fed has lowered the rate for the third time in a row

Overall, as everyone expected, we have seen a decrease in the key rate; however, as I mentioned, a decrease of 25 basis points will only lead to a slight increase, given that this was already factored into the market.

There was slight volatility on expectations, BTC hit the mark of 94.000$, but as a result, at the moment, we have returned back to the area of 90.000$.

Most likely, by the end of the year, we will not see strong movements, as everyone is slowly starting to prepare for the holidays and relax.

For now, I lean towards a sideways movement between 90.000$ - 94.000$ without any serious movements, but I still expect the development of a bullish scenario, which will likely occur only at the beginning of next year.

Gradually, social media is gaining optimism for the market.

1) CZ expects new records in crypto. He doesn't know exactly when, but he is certainly expecting.

2) Chairman of the SEC

"All US markets will be transitioned to blockchain within two years."

There are many similar statements now. Some say that the alt season is near, while others say that countries will strengthen support for the fresh market, etc. But the most important things are still ahead - on December 10, Powell's speech and the results on the rate, that's when everything will become clear until the end of 2025.

Meme coins continue to lose trading volumes

Recently, there has been a significant decrease in trading volume in this sector, as well as in capitalization.

Sooner or later, all these memes must die, which in general will be logical and there is nothing surprising about it.

DOGE still remains the favorite, accounting for more than 50% of the total capitalization.

I have always told you about the enormous risks of this sector and often recommended to stay away from it.

One of the whales is actively selling ETH

This investor acquired his coins during the ICO, at that time he bought 254,908 ETH for a total of $79.3k.

And over the last week, he has gradually been liquidating his assets, having already sold about 23,000 ETH ($66.53m).

He deposited another 3000 ETH ($8.4m) on FalconX, likely with a similar goal, and soon these coins will be sold.

Although Ethereum is not at its historical high, even so, this whale will still be in a good profit; however, a significant portion of the coins still remains in his wallet, which he may possibly leave for a higher price.

BTC below $88,000.

There is panic in the market. The fear and greed index is at the levels of the FTX collapse. There are outflows of funds everywhere. The entire market is falling. News of the collapse of the bull cycle is everywhere.

In my opinion, they have trapped everyone well and forced them to exit the market. I, however, urge you to hold your positions and strategically open longs. I think at least a rebound to 95,000$ will be given to us (if we indeed have started a bear cycle).

I do not believe in the start of a bear market and have said this many times, providing various arguments in favor of this.

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The sideways market of 2025.

The year 2025 is truly unique for the market - we did not experience exponential growth or a significant decline; instead, we were essentially stagnant throughout the year, even despite new ATH updates. BTC, having fallen by 35% from its peak in October, is trading at about the same levels it started at the beginning of 2025.

This significantly disrupts potential cycles, as we either have a year of decline or a year of strong growth. It is quite likely that we should reconsider the potential structure of cycles.

There are many reasons - ranging from ETFs and centralization to gradual regulation and increased interest in the asset worldwide.

There are conspiracy theories circulating online about BTC dropping to the $70,000 area.

The strategy involved borrowing funds against BTC (through convertible bonds). If BTC falls below a certain LTV (loan-to-value), additional collateral or the sale of pledged BTC on the market may be required.

This area is marked by 75 000$ , and now many believe that we will move towards these marks to force the largest players out of the market. I do not share this position, as dropping below 75 000$ will lead to a very sad situation in the market and a high probability of a full bear trend.

For now, BTC is recovering its positions and trading above $95,000.

BTC influences the profitability of all companies.

A quite interesting observation on the internet - Steak 'n Shake, which this year implemented a bitcoin reserve, launched bitcoin burgers, and accepts BTC as payment, demonstrated the best quarterly sales figures in the category of similar stores.

Everything associated with BTC is currently trending and brings in more profit, the same goes for AI, but it is gradually starting to decline.

I think this trend will continue for several more years before it fades away.

Spot XRP ETFs are very close now.

5 spot XRP ETFs have appeared on the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which clears transactions on NASDAQ) website.

Franklin XRP Trust ( #XRPZ)
21Shares XRP ETF ( #TOXR)
Bitwise XRP ETF ( #XRP)
Canary XRP ETF ( #XRPC)
CoinShares XRP ETF ( #XRPL)

The launch of spot XRP ETFs is expected this month, and the events described above are standard procedures before trading begins.