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This week's major events:

On Tuesday (11.5) the U.S. election, will it be a celebration of Trump being re-elected, or the inauguration of a Democratic female president? The answer is awaited.

On Friday (11.8) the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, expected to lower rates by 25 basis points.#美联储利率决议来袭 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #11月市场预测

After 3 months, Bitcoin has once again reached the 70,000 mark. October is nearing its end, and the bullish signals are strong. Meanwhile, the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting are approaching, and the impact of macro data will trigger market fluctuations.

In the market, BTC continued to rise yesterday and has broken through the 71,000 barrier this morning. Currently, it has entered the overbought territory on the 4-hour chart, and there will be a slight need for a pullback in the short term. The daily chart remains healthy, and the weekly chart has formed a golden cross. Hold on to your positions and maintain confidence; we continue to look bullish. Ethereum also rose in sync with BTC yesterday, but the increase was not significant compared to BTC. It is currently above 2,600, and we patiently await a stabilization of BTC before ETH follows up with a rebound.

BTC: Intraday resistance 71,500-72,000; Intraday support 69,800-70,300
ETH: Intraday resistance 2,650-2,700; Intraday support 2,520-2,550

Today's BTC market sentiment number has reached 72, which is a very good state. There is still no overheating, making it suitable to hold coins and wait. However, retail investors in the market should not rush into FOMO; a pullback in BTC is inevitable. Nevertheless, in the larger trend, new highs can be expected soon.

The upcoming favorable factors will drive the big market trend:
1. The impact of expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
2. Increased attention from U.S. tech giants to BTC
3. Continuous inflow of BTC spot ETFs
4. The U.S. election is approaching
5. Steepening U.S. Treasury yields, optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy
#BTC触及7W

Take a look at Monday's market data. Although the price of BTC is rising, the overall market still remains in a "recovery" state.

Market capitalization is increasing, with BTC accounting for 65% of the growth, altcoins at 23%, and ETH at 11.4%. The market's enthusiasm is still anchored to BTC itself, with BTC's share at 55.9%, nearing the 56% mark. ETH remains unchanged, while the share of altcoins has shrunk, indicating a poor risk appetite in the market.

Altcoins need to wait for BTC to create a wealth-generating environment before more risk capital dares to buy in significantly.

In terms of trading volume, compared to last Saturday, it still belongs to a shrinking state, in a recovery phase after the weekend's bottom liquidity. If BTC continues to rise and reaches 70,000, then tonight might witness a wave of short-term explosive trading volume. As for capital activity, Asian and European funds have not yet activated their activity, while US area funds have increased USDC trading volume by 14.8%.
In terms of capital, the market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 500 million. The official data for USDT is 120.339 billion, with a slight increase of only 35 million compared to last Saturday, while USDC currently has no official data updates, and the data website shows little fluctuation in market capitalization.

Presidential Assessment: The market is currently in a recovery period on Monday. During this phase, trading volume and price fluctuations will not be too large. The market needs to re-anchor a new narrative this week, whether it's upward or downward, and then we can see more activity through the data.

Just a complaint: with the elections approaching, BTC indeed looks quite optimistic, but regarding altcoins, the risk appetite is not very friendly.

Curve 0.25, starting to build position! 👀$CRV

Among the 35 coins newly held by Grayscale Fund, 3 potential ones were selected for this bottom-fishing choice!

ONDO: Build a position around 068, a leading coin in the RWA concept, favored by many institutions including Grayscale and BlackRock. This is a category that is feasible and in its early stages of development.

WLD: Layer in at 1.96-1.76, AI concept, announced several advancements in October, including new Orb and new verification methods, World ID 3.0, World App 3.0, and the launch of World Chain. In the future, this project will be supported by World Chain, World ID, and Worldcoin as three main pillars, forming a network composed of real, verified humans and supporting further development of AI.

PYTH: Layer in at 0.306-0.273, an oracle on the Solana chain, favored by Wall Street market makers #牛市赛道是那条？

CRV has once again tested the bottom support, the 0.25-0.23 support zone has very dense chips, you can start preparing to build positions in batches near 0.25, the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are also starting to narrow, after all, it is one of the leading projects in DeFi. Although the previous liquidation turmoil led to a prolonged slump, as the market's FUD towards the founder dissipates, CRV will still welcome an increase. Moreover, there is nothing wrong with the CRV protocol itself! $CRV

10/18 Crypto Events

• STX - The Stacks Foundation has confirmed that Satoshi activation will be completed on BTC block 867,867. This block is currently expected to arrive on October 29, 2024.

• RUNE - SEC charges Thorchain co-founder Mattew Moravec with selling unregistered crypto securities.

• SCR - Binance will close SCR pre-market trading on October 21 at 09:00 UTC and list SCR on the spot market at 08:00 UTC on October 22.

• WLD - Worldcoin announced that it will be rebranded as World Network. They also announced the launch of new services, including World Apps 3.0 and Mini Apps, World ID 3.0, and Orbs 2.0, etc.

• ENA - Ethena Labs has published a proposal to add USDe liquidity to Hyperliquids and increase funding yields on Hyperliquids perpetual futures for hedging.

• TURBO - Coinbase Int. has announced that the TURBO -PERP market will start on October 24th at 9:30 AM UTC.

• MAGIC - Treasure announced the launch of its second testnet, Treasure Topaz, hinting at more big news, new games, and applications to come. According to comments from Treasure, the mainnet may be launched in the coming weeks.

• HMSTR - Hamster Combat released a trailer for Season 2. It looks like this new chapter is coming soon.

• ALICE - Released information about BJORN, a new additional in-game economy token. They revealed more information.

Many people are wondering: Why did BTC suddenly take off, while many altcoins fell instead, and some altcoins did not follow suit. why is that?

In the currency circle, the total amount of liquidity is very limited. Once the price of the pie rises, the flow of funds will converge in its direction, and the copycat will naturally encounter a situation of "blood-sucking" funds. When BTC enters the sideways trading stage, some copycats will have the opportunity to start the market.

Currently, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on November 7 have reached approximately 93%.

Therefore, in November, the most significant impact on the currency circle will be the U.S. election. If Trump wins the election, it will be good for the entire encryption industry, and currency prices will most likely rise sharply. #BTC☀

Which of the strong MEME coins have you bought?

Recently, BOME, TURBO, FLOKI and MEW have been on a fierce trend, and MEME coins have become the focus of the market again. Whenever the market starts, MEME coins always take the lead. Right now, October has just entered the middle of the month, and the following MEME coins are worth paying attention to. Perhaps it is a good time to lay out!

PEPE
This year's newcomer in MEME coins, PEPE has been born since April 2023, and its price has soared to $0.00001718, which is unparalleled. With the strong appeal of pepe, it has gradually become the leader of MEME coins. Whether it is early supporters or the entire crypto community, PEPE's rise is remarkable, and there are still many opportunities in the future.

PEOPLE
As a general election concept coin, PEOPLE is accumulating strength. There is not much time left before the US election on November 5, and market sentiment has not yet been fully released. Trump has currently won five of the seven swing states, and the market's interest in PEOPLE is likely to explode before the election results are announced. Now the trend is only one key big positive line away, and it may take off at any time after the trend is confirmed.

WIF
As a dark horse currency, WIF is expected to replicate the glory of SHIB in the past. The current buying is increasing, and the target price has the opportunity to hit $4 or even higher. As the bull market expectations increase, WIF's potential for growth cannot be underestimated.

Personal opinion MEME coin's performance is always explosive, but it is also accompanied by extremely high risks, especially when market sentiment fluctuates greatly. Although the above-mentioned currencies are strong, it is necessary to carefully weigh the risks before layout and set a reasonable stop loss. In addition, MEME coins are usually a track with large short-term fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to market trends at any time and adjust strategies flexibly.

MEME bull market starts, which currencies do you still favor? Welcome to discuss in the comment area!

10/17 Crypto News

1. BlackRock BTC ETF flows have been increasing for several consecutive days. BlackRock IBIT has inflows of $391.8 million today.

2. RNDT was hacked and nearly $50 million in assets were stolen. Although RDNT has fallen sharply, Bithumb's RDNT has gained +30% since deposits and BTC were suspended

3. Robinhood will support crypto futures trading in the coming months. The specific time of support has not yet been disclosed.

4. Binance Labs announced an investment in Lombard, a BTC LST platform with a total locked value of $730 million.

5. SEI announced the launch of fastUSD, a raw yield stable asset backed by deUSD. fastUSD will play a key role in the Sei DeFi ecosystem.

6. XRP - Bitwise files an update on the XRP spot ETF S-1 with the SEC. Details such as the ETF structure, custody arrangements, and redemption mechanisms have been listed in detail.

7.AVAX Summit LATAM has started. They released the opening keynote of the Avalanche9000 upgrade on the X channel.

8.ACH announced the launch of L1 AlchemyChain and developed a Q4 roadmap.

9.TRB - Tellor released a white paper on Tellor Layer, a L1 network based on Cosmos SDK.

FXS has been fluctuating in a narrow range at the bottom for 2 months, waiting for the momentum to pick up. The current price is 2.13 and a position has been established. Stable currency agreement, recent official cooperation is good, look forward to it! $FXS

The start of the interest rate cut cycle is a long-term positive for the crypto market, and the market will gradually react.

Previously, smart money and large funds bought at the bottom, indicating that capital is full of confidence in the future market, and it is wise for retail investors to follow the layout in batches.

The subsequent copycat season will be crazier than you can imagine, so just sit tight and wait for it to lie flat. #cpi #BTC☀

ALCX is now priced at 14.8 spot. It has been fluctuating in a narrow range at the bottom for a long time. Good news has been announced recently. Wait for a big pump! $ALCX

How will the market interpret the non-farm payrolls data tonight? Where are the opportunities and risks?

The non-farm payrolls data on October 4 is crucial to the Federal Reserve, especially the first employment report after the rate cut. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the Federal Reserve is closely watching the labor market, and the 50 basis point rate cut in September is based on employment data. He once said that if he had known the employment situation in July, he might have cut interest rates in advance.

In short, employment data has a very high status in the eyes of the Federal Reserve. For investors, rising unemployment rates may indicate a recession in the United States. The Federal Reserve has a firm attitude towards unemployment, setting the median unemployment rate for 2024-2025 at 4.4%, and is unwilling to see it rise.

There are many macro data, and if you only look at one, the unemployment rate is the most critical. The higher the unemployment rate, the greater the risk of recession. Tonight's data interpretation:

Unemployment rate: previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%. Maintaining or declining is good news, and if it does not rise, the recession expectation is not established.

Number of employed people: the more the better, the market expects a slight decline, but it is not a big problem, and we still need to pay attention to the labor participation rate.

Wages: The Fed once viewed wages as a driver of inflation, but now sees them as economic support.

In short, a non-rising unemployment rate is not a negative factor; if it rises, even a slight increase of 0.1% may cause market panic. Some people expect that rising unemployment will force the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November, but this may be interpreted as an expectation of recession, which may not be a good thing. Other key data include employment and wage levels. #非农就业数据即将公布

Focus on the following news in October

1.10.4 Non-agricultural data, unemployment rate data. Low non-agricultural data is good news, low unemployment rate is good news, and vice versa.

2.10.10 US CPI data, if it can reach 2.2 as Powell said, it is definitely good news, and interest rates may continue to be cut in the future. Vice versa.

3.10.17 Retail sales growth is also important, reflecting the level of consumption.

4.10.18 Japan's CPI data is released. If it is high, Japan is likely to raise interest rates.

5.10.30 US GDP data is released. If it is higher than 3, it means it is positive. If PCE is high, the probability of interest rate cuts decreases.

6. The Bank of Japan announced that the interest rate is normal, and there is a high probability of raising interest rates.

Pay close attention to the situation in the Middle East and oil prices.

The FTX Court will hold a confirmation hearing on FTX's distribution claim on October 7. #FTX赔偿计划

October is coming soon. The most anticipated thing in Q4 is FTX's compensation. Unlike Mentougou, FTX's compensation is settled in US dollars, about 16 billion US dollars. These will eventually flow back to the market, and most of them will flow into the crypto market, which is a big positive. At the intersection of September and October, seize the opportunity of the callback! #FTX赔偿计划

AI is gradually picking up, multiple positive factors are emerging, Harris expressed support for artificial intelligence, and a series of currencies are performing strongly. If you are still short and are considering AI potential targets worth ambush, you might consider wld (1.655), phb (1.39), grt (1.655), and the current order point is in brackets! $WLD $PHB $GRT