Last night, BTC did not continue to fall after breaking the neckline, but quickly recovered above the neckline and continued to rebound with large volume, and buying finally began to take effect.

This is the spring effect in volume-price analysis, and it is a typical bullish pattern in the bull market.
The expected CPI value of 2.9% in December should have been reflected in yesterday's breakout and decline. As long as the CPI data released on Wednesday is not significantly higher than the expected value, it is unlikely that $BTC will continue to fall deeply.

In this way, the possibility of failure of the "head and shoulders top" is relatively high.
However, the trading volume was relatively large when it broke down yesterday, indicating that there are still many floating chips in the market, and the current capital and ETF buying are still not optimistic, so the time for rising should not have come yet.

There are two possible future market developments:
Scenario 1: The US December CPI released tomorrow night is in line with expectations. In this case, the probability of Bitcoin falling below the neckline again is low, and it is possible to test the neckline again, forming a small "head and shoulders bottom";

Scenario 2: The US December CPI obviously exceeds expectations. In this case, there may be expectations of interest rate hikes, and Bitcoin is likely to fall below 90,000 again, or even below yesterday's low.

Judging from the rebound volume of Bitcoin after the false break last night, it seems that the market believes that scenario 1 is more likely to occur.

The steady progress of Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Now, apart from Bitcoin, everything else is a clone, which is indeed somewhat frustrating. The Ethereum exchange rate has been declining from its peak for three years, and those who engaged in ETH/BTC grid trading have basically missed this bull market.

From a fundamental perspective, the driving force of the bull market mainly depends on market demand. The core of the last bull market was DeFi, and various infrastructures were laid out on the Ethereum chain, so the market demand for Ethereum drove its price. In this bull market, Wall Street capital has entered the scene, with ETFs and publicly listed companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, and external consensus in the cryptocurrency space is primarily focused on Bitcoin. The money used to buy Bitcoin will not flow into altcoins; altcoins remain just a way for on-site funds to cut each other down.

From a macro perspective, the global economy is currently recovering, and major countries are in a rate-cutting cycle, with the floodgates open, leading to capital naturally overflowing from higher to lower levels. Although the overall scale of the cryptocurrency space is not large, there are many opportunities. The large market moves first, and subsequently, just a little capital can drive small-cap stocks.

In the ongoing bull market, Ethereum, as the king of altcoins, has launched an ETF, providing ample room for operations. For example, achieving a 10% to 20% increase is not particularly difficult. Therefore, one can pay attention to low-cost buying opportunities in the spot market.

For short-term trading, focusing on whether Bitcoin can truly break out is key. If Bitcoin does break out, then looking upwards to 5000 points or even 10,000 points (110,000, 115,000) is possible. If Bitcoin experiences a slight intraday pullback and can stabilize above 104,000, one can consider low-cost buying. However, if it effectively falls below 104,000, it’s best to exit, as even if there is a rebound, the target won't be too high. Overall, the risk-reward ratio is extremely high, making it worth a try.

If you play contracts, keep the following points in mind!

1. Playing contracts is about betting small to gain big; incurring losses is normal. However, after facing a stop-loss, two types of people emerge: some will frantically open orders after a stop-loss, while others will enter a cooling-off period.

My advice is that if you encounter frequent stop-loss situations, you should calm down, temporarily stop trading, and adjust your strategy.

2. Don’t rush for success; trading is not a means to get rich overnight. When encountering losses in trading, maintain a calm mindset, do not rush to open orders, and especially do not go all in.

3. It is important to pay attention to the overall trend. When you see a one-sided market from the charts, you should go with the trend and not trade against it, as going against the trend is the root of losses. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, there is a habit of trading against the trend. However, once the market trend is formed, counter-trading often leads to severe losses, so we must learn to go with the trend and patiently wait for opportunities to trade again.

4. You must manage your risk-reward ratio well; otherwise, it’s hard to make money. Let profits be greater than losses as much as possible, and at least maintain a 2:1 ratio before considering opening an order.

5. Frequent trading is a major taboo in contracts. If you are not an expert in contracts, you must restrain the impulse to blindly open orders, especially for beginner players who are full of enthusiasm for the market and want to seize every opportunity. However, most so-called opportunities will lead to losses.

6. Only earn within the limits of your understanding; this is very important.

7. Do not hold onto losing positions; holding positions in contracts is a major taboo, especially for beginners. You must set stop-losses; holding onto losing positions is the beginning of a downward spiral. Again, do not hold onto positions.

8. Do not get carried away when making profits; getting carried away will lead to losses. $ETH

Last night, Powell's speech caused panic, and the price of bitcoin fell from 91,700 to around 87,000. The main reasons were two key remarks.

1. Don't rush to cut interest rates. Interpretation: Then the interest rate cut in December will increase uncertainty.

2. Inflation is still a long way to go to 2%. Interpretation: Expressing concerns about inflation, once it cannot be suppressed, subsequent interest rate cuts may be cold. At the same time, there is a very small probability of reversing.

Yesterday, BTC's ETF outflow of $400 million. Although this number is not large, it has a huge impact on the market. There has been a large inflow for a week, with the largest inflow of nearly $1.2 billion on one day, but the pull-up is only 3,000-4,000 points.

However, on the first outflow day, there was a drop of about 5,000 points. This shows that there are huge differences in funds here.

Everyone knows that the current bull market mainly depends on the inflow and outflow of spot goods and macro conditions. Today, Friday, it is expected to continue to outflow, and the market will not change much before next Monday.

There are also some positive factors today: 18 states filed a lawsuit against the SEC, and the chairman of the SEC hinted at resigning. In addition, Trump is considering canceling the capital gains tax on crypto assets issued in the United States. This undoubtedly adds warmth to the market!

Of course, when the price of the currency continues to rise and the weekly K and monthly K hit the upper side, there must be a wave of callbacks. After the callback, it is a high-level shock. If the main rising wave closes the weekly K, it will basically continue to insert a needle downward in the second week, and then quickly withdraw, and stay horizontal for about three weeks at a high level. In the short term, the big cake will fluctuate around the 85700-92000 range. Be sure to take protective measures when placing orders! $BTC

Crazy bull market, it's not the bull that's crazy, it's those who short and those without chips.

This week's major events:

On Tuesday (11.5) the U.S. election, will it be a celebration of Trump being re-elected, or the inauguration of a Democratic female president? The answer is awaited.

On Friday (11.8) the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, expected to lower rates by 25 basis points.#美联储利率决议来袭 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #11月市场预测

After 3 months, Bitcoin has once again reached the 70,000 mark. October is nearing its end, and the bullish signals are strong. Meanwhile, the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting are approaching, and the impact of macro data will trigger market fluctuations.

In the market, BTC continued to rise yesterday and has broken through the 71,000 barrier this morning. Currently, it has entered the overbought territory on the 4-hour chart, and there will be a slight need for a pullback in the short term. The daily chart remains healthy, and the weekly chart has formed a golden cross. Hold on to your positions and maintain confidence; we continue to look bullish. Ethereum also rose in sync with BTC yesterday, but the increase was not significant compared to BTC. It is currently above 2,600, and we patiently await a stabilization of BTC before ETH follows up with a rebound.

BTC: Intraday resistance 71,500-72,000; Intraday support 69,800-70,300
ETH: Intraday resistance 2,650-2,700; Intraday support 2,520-2,550

Today's BTC market sentiment number has reached 72, which is a very good state. There is still no overheating, making it suitable to hold coins and wait. However, retail investors in the market should not rush into FOMO; a pullback in BTC is inevitable. Nevertheless, in the larger trend, new highs can be expected soon.

The upcoming favorable factors will drive the big market trend:
1. The impact of expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
2. Increased attention from U.S. tech giants to BTC
3. Continuous inflow of BTC spot ETFs
4. The U.S. election is approaching
5. Steepening U.S. Treasury yields, optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy
#BTC触及7W

Take a look at Monday's market data. Although the price of BTC is rising, the overall market still remains in a "recovery" state.

Market capitalization is increasing, with BTC accounting for 65% of the growth, altcoins at 23%, and ETH at 11.4%. The market's enthusiasm is still anchored to BTC itself, with BTC's share at 55.9%, nearing the 56% mark. ETH remains unchanged, while the share of altcoins has shrunk, indicating a poor risk appetite in the market.

Altcoins need to wait for BTC to create a wealth-generating environment before more risk capital dares to buy in significantly.

In terms of trading volume, compared to last Saturday, it still belongs to a shrinking state, in a recovery phase after the weekend's bottom liquidity. If BTC continues to rise and reaches 70,000, then tonight might witness a wave of short-term explosive trading volume. As for capital activity, Asian and European funds have not yet activated their activity, while US area funds have increased USDC trading volume by 14.8%.
In terms of capital, the market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 500 million. The official data for USDT is 120.339 billion, with a slight increase of only 35 million compared to last Saturday, while USDC currently has no official data updates, and the data website shows little fluctuation in market capitalization.

Presidential Assessment: The market is currently in a recovery period on Monday. During this phase, trading volume and price fluctuations will not be too large. The market needs to re-anchor a new narrative this week, whether it's upward or downward, and then we can see more activity through the data.

Just a complaint: with the elections approaching, BTC indeed looks quite optimistic, but regarding altcoins, the risk appetite is not very friendly.

Curve 0.25, starting to build position! 👀$CRV

Among the 35 coins newly held by Grayscale Fund, 3 potential ones were selected for this bottom-fishing choice!

ONDO: Build a position around 068, a leading coin in the RWA concept, favored by many institutions including Grayscale and BlackRock. This is a category that is feasible and in its early stages of development.

WLD: Layer in at 1.96-1.76, AI concept, announced several advancements in October, including new Orb and new verification methods, World ID 3.0, World App 3.0, and the launch of World Chain. In the future, this project will be supported by World Chain, World ID, and Worldcoin as three main pillars, forming a network composed of real, verified humans and supporting further development of AI.

PYTH: Layer in at 0.306-0.273, an oracle on the Solana chain, favored by Wall Street market makers #牛市赛道是那条？

CRV has once again tested the bottom support, the 0.25-0.23 support zone has very dense chips, you can start preparing to build positions in batches near 0.25, the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are also starting to narrow, after all, it is one of the leading projects in DeFi. Although the previous liquidation turmoil led to a prolonged slump, as the market's FUD towards the founder dissipates, CRV will still welcome an increase. Moreover, there is nothing wrong with the CRV protocol itself! $CRV

10/18 Crypto Events

• STX - The Stacks Foundation has confirmed that Satoshi activation will be completed on BTC block 867,867. This block is currently expected to arrive on October 29, 2024.

• RUNE - SEC charges Thorchain co-founder Mattew Moravec with selling unregistered crypto securities.

• SCR - Binance will close SCR pre-market trading on October 21 at 09:00 UTC and list SCR on the spot market at 08:00 UTC on October 22.

• WLD - Worldcoin announced that it will be rebranded as World Network. They also announced the launch of new services, including World Apps 3.0 and Mini Apps, World ID 3.0, and Orbs 2.0, etc.

• ENA - Ethena Labs has published a proposal to add USDe liquidity to Hyperliquids and increase funding yields on Hyperliquids perpetual futures for hedging.

• TURBO - Coinbase Int. has announced that the TURBO -PERP market will start on October 24th at 9:30 AM UTC.

• MAGIC - Treasure announced the launch of its second testnet, Treasure Topaz, hinting at more big news, new games, and applications to come. According to comments from Treasure, the mainnet may be launched in the coming weeks.

• HMSTR - Hamster Combat released a trailer for Season 2. It looks like this new chapter is coming soon.

• ALICE - Released information about BJORN, a new additional in-game economy token. They revealed more information.

Many people are wondering: Why did BTC suddenly take off, while many altcoins fell instead, and some altcoins did not follow suit. why is that?

In the currency circle, the total amount of liquidity is very limited. Once the price of the pie rises, the flow of funds will converge in its direction, and the copycat will naturally encounter a situation of "blood-sucking" funds. When BTC enters the sideways trading stage, some copycats will have the opportunity to start the market.

Currently, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on November 7 have reached approximately 93%.

Therefore, in November, the most significant impact on the currency circle will be the U.S. election. If Trump wins the election, it will be good for the entire encryption industry, and currency prices will most likely rise sharply. #BTC☀

Which of the strong MEME coins have you bought?

Recently, BOME, TURBO, FLOKI and MEW have been on a fierce trend, and MEME coins have become the focus of the market again. Whenever the market starts, MEME coins always take the lead. Right now, October has just entered the middle of the month, and the following MEME coins are worth paying attention to. Perhaps it is a good time to lay out!

PEPE
This year's newcomer in MEME coins, PEPE has been born since April 2023, and its price has soared to $0.00001718, which is unparalleled. With the strong appeal of pepe, it has gradually become the leader of MEME coins. Whether it is early supporters or the entire crypto community, PEPE's rise is remarkable, and there are still many opportunities in the future.

PEOPLE
As a general election concept coin, PEOPLE is accumulating strength. There is not much time left before the US election on November 5, and market sentiment has not yet been fully released. Trump has currently won five of the seven swing states, and the market's interest in PEOPLE is likely to explode before the election results are announced. Now the trend is only one key big positive line away, and it may take off at any time after the trend is confirmed.

WIF
As a dark horse currency, WIF is expected to replicate the glory of SHIB in the past. The current buying is increasing, and the target price has the opportunity to hit $4 or even higher. As the bull market expectations increase, WIF's potential for growth cannot be underestimated.

Personal opinion MEME coin's performance is always explosive, but it is also accompanied by extremely high risks, especially when market sentiment fluctuates greatly. Although the above-mentioned currencies are strong, it is necessary to carefully weigh the risks before layout and set a reasonable stop loss. In addition, MEME coins are usually a track with large short-term fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to market trends at any time and adjust strategies flexibly.

MEME bull market starts, which currencies do you still favor? Welcome to discuss in the comment area!

10/17 Crypto News

1. BlackRock BTC ETF flows have been increasing for several consecutive days. BlackRock IBIT has inflows of $391.8 million today.

2. RNDT was hacked and nearly $50 million in assets were stolen. Although RDNT has fallen sharply, Bithumb's RDNT has gained +30% since deposits and BTC were suspended

3. Robinhood will support crypto futures trading in the coming months. The specific time of support has not yet been disclosed.

4. Binance Labs announced an investment in Lombard, a BTC LST platform with a total locked value of $730 million.

5. SEI announced the launch of fastUSD, a raw yield stable asset backed by deUSD. fastUSD will play a key role in the Sei DeFi ecosystem.

6. XRP - Bitwise files an update on the XRP spot ETF S-1 with the SEC. Details such as the ETF structure, custody arrangements, and redemption mechanisms have been listed in detail.

7.AVAX Summit LATAM has started. They released the opening keynote of the Avalanche9000 upgrade on the X channel.

8.ACH announced the launch of L1 AlchemyChain and developed a Q4 roadmap.

9.TRB - Tellor released a white paper on Tellor Layer, a L1 network based on Cosmos SDK.

FXS has been fluctuating in a narrow range at the bottom for 2 months, waiting for the momentum to pick up. The current price is 2.13 and a position has been established. Stable currency agreement, recent official cooperation is good, look forward to it! $FXS

The start of the interest rate cut cycle is a long-term positive for the crypto market, and the market will gradually react.

Previously, smart money and large funds bought at the bottom, indicating that capital is full of confidence in the future market, and it is wise for retail investors to follow the layout in batches.

The subsequent copycat season will be crazier than you can imagine, so just sit tight and wait for it to lie flat. #cpi #BTC☀

ALCX is now priced at 14.8 spot. It has been fluctuating in a narrow range at the bottom for a long time. Good news has been announced recently. Wait for a big pump! $ALCX

How will the market interpret the non-farm payrolls data tonight? Where are the opportunities and risks?

The non-farm payrolls data on October 4 is crucial to the Federal Reserve, especially the first employment report after the rate cut. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the Federal Reserve is closely watching the labor market, and the 50 basis point rate cut in September is based on employment data. He once said that if he had known the employment situation in July, he might have cut interest rates in advance.

In short, employment data has a very high status in the eyes of the Federal Reserve. For investors, rising unemployment rates may indicate a recession in the United States. The Federal Reserve has a firm attitude towards unemployment, setting the median unemployment rate for 2024-2025 at 4.4%, and is unwilling to see it rise.

There are many macro data, and if you only look at one, the unemployment rate is the most critical. The higher the unemployment rate, the greater the risk of recession. Tonight's data interpretation:

Unemployment rate: previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%. Maintaining or declining is good news, and if it does not rise, the recession expectation is not established.

Number of employed people: the more the better, the market expects a slight decline, but it is not a big problem, and we still need to pay attention to the labor participation rate.

Wages: The Fed once viewed wages as a driver of inflation, but now sees them as economic support.

In short, a non-rising unemployment rate is not a negative factor; if it rises, even a slight increase of 0.1% may cause market panic. Some people expect that rising unemployment will force the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November, but this may be interpreted as an expectation of recession, which may not be a good thing. Other key data include employment and wage levels. #非农就业数据即将公布