人不与天斗

#BTC行情 , a bit exciting!

I really don't know what to do in this market now

It's quite a stalemate, it looks like a false breakout, but there is support, we can only wait until tomorrow to see.

I don't understand it anymore

Will it reach 97000?

The price will determine the winner today, I am bearish

The trend is starting to emerge, it has already found support, and will gradually come out.

See if we can break through 71272. There is a support below, but it seems that buying power is not strong.

There is still support below, this time we will enter a trend, starting 📈 the trend, going long!

Next, the price needs to be tested, and only then can the trend be judged. Going long during a downtrend is foolish and quite scary; I will never go long again. Going long is against the trend.

Bitcoin behaves like the US stock market during the rising phase and like gold during the falling phase, just like light has wave-particle duality. Has anyone felt this?

Telling a story

Left foot on right foot?

Explicit Information and Implicit Information

There is very little effective information in the market, but it can generally be divided into two parts: one is explicit information that most poor people can access, which consists of major events; this collective memory can drive changes in capital. The other is implicit information that only circulates among a small circle of rich people, and the wealthy operate the stock market on a large scale and in an organized manner based on this implicit information, causing price fluctuations. This part of implicit information ultimately will not be released, while the changes in the market have already occurred.

The total amount of funds owned by the rich may not necessarily be greater than the total amount of funds owned by the poor, but because the rich have implicit information and centralized resource allocation, they can harvest retail investors on a large scale. Retail investors who want to make money from the capital market must infer the capital actions of the wealthy who hold implicit information from explicit information and market behavior fluctuations, and follow the market movement direction of the wealthy. Market fluctuations may be triggered by the outbreak of collective major events, but more often they are driven by the collective implicit information of the rich.

A bull market driven by a group of wealthy individuals who possess large capital and organization may not be a true bull market; implicit information itself is a form of deception. The wealthy circle blocks the flow of information while continuously operating the stock market; if the poor follow them, they can easily be taken advantage of. However, the market will ultimately return to explicit information. Implicit information can create capital bubbles and can form structural bull markets, but will ultimately be exposed to the light of day. The market will ultimately return to explicit information.

The Way of Heaven is Unfeeling
Market cycles may fluctuate due to temporary news, but ultimately they will return to fundamentals. The cryptocurrency market is a macro manifestation of collective consciousness, which may experience short-term emotional outbursts, but will inevitably revert to rationality at some point. The market's movements are chaotic; sometimes they align with fundamentals, and sometimes they violate them, just as humans are not inherently rational. However, in the end, the market will move in the direction of the fundamentals, and it will move towards the one correct direction.
Most people in the market have only limited information, so the capital market is not a game of rational players, but a non-rational guessing game, where the answers will gradually reveal themselves over time. Even if you don’t know what is happening behind stock price movements, you can see from the candlestick chart that prices are falling, which can lead to a collective stampede to exit until the market returns to a mean.
There is only one correct direction for the market, but there can be multiple random movements. As a player, your job is to execute only the one correct direction while avoiding significant losses in the random movements.

All news surfaces are useless now, the current value of Bitcoin has reached its peak at this stage, and its value is now higher relative to the price, so a price drop is inevitable to balance the market.
If you are a holder of Bitcoin, and you hold a lot of Bitcoin, how will you choose in the current market situation? Will you continue to hold or sell? In the context of a global economic downturn, with decreasing funds entering the cryptocurrency market, the liquidity of this market is shrinking. If you don't sell quickly, the number of people willing to buy later will decrease.
When you understand the psychology of the largest holders, and when you view the cryptocurrency market from the perspective of a user holding 9,000 Bitcoins, you will only arrive at one conclusion: a massive short!

Having gone through a round of bull and bear cycles, I now understand. Technical analysis is nonsense, and news is just hot air. In the context of a large market environment, there is only one certain direction for the market. Is capital flowing into the cryptocurrency market or out of it? Is the global economy booming or in recession? This is the core issue, and as for technical analysis, rumors, and quantitative investment, they are all nonsense. Of course, any methodology can make money if done well, but all top investors ultimately rely on macro trend analysis; there is only one way, and that is the macro trend. The current environment is that the U.S. is in recession, and China's economy is mired in difficulties. As the two main forces of the world economy, neither is producing; instead, they are in confrontation. It would be strange for the economy to recover. China's real estate crisis is like the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, which will ultimately trigger a global economic crisis. Therefore, my view is that the next few years will be a decline. There may be technical rebounds and small adjustments in news, but in the end, it will still plummet madly. Capital will flow out of the stock market. When investment cannot bring returns, and investment faces risks, capital will inevitably flee.

Is trading a talent? Or can it be learned later?

I have always been curious about this question. My view is that talented traders are more likely to succeed, but without education and guidance, even those with talent cannot become skilled.

On my trading journey, I have received guidance from mentors, so I am also willing to share this knowledge.

Starting today, I will update a bit of trading wisdom suitable for beginners every day. Everything is up to fate.

Never put all your chips on the table. The market always brings surprises, and when prices break through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, they plummet due to Trump's political policies. No matter how good the price trend is, always set a stop-loss to control risk. There are always black swan events in the market; the market is always emotional rather than rational. The speculative market lacks rationality; it is filled with a group of emotional speculators. In this market, greed and panic dominate price fluctuations. Feel the heartbeat of the market and follow its signals to make trades.