熊三金cole

Gammafund just transferred 5,480 ETH to Binance, equivalent to $11.93 million.

That’s not chump change. Moving ETH to exchanges at this position usually means one of two things: either they’re gearing up to add margin for a long hold, or they’ve decided it’s time to offload. Given that most of the $460 million in liquidations were longs and the funding rates have all turned negative — my take is: the bulls aren't completely dead yet, but they're definitely gasping for air.

Meanwhile, Majigod is on the other side flexing, adding $250,000 to his ETH long position on Hyperliquid.

At the same time, whales are moving, seasoned holders are adding, and retail traders are getting wrecked.

This split is actually quite interesting. After the $460 million in liquidations, the sentiment isn’t overly bullish; the long/short ratio still leans long, indicating many are still betting on a V-shaped recovery. However, the funding rates and the outflows from ETFs over the past few days (with $900 million out in just two days) are telling a different story.

My habit is this: when funding rates and position directions are at odds, I trust the data first, then the positions. For this wave, I’m siding with the funding rates.

Blew up 460 million, fees all in the green, long-short ratio still leaning bullish.

This market is quite interesting. The bulls' corpses are piling up, and the funding rates have dropped to a sea of green, indicating that more folks are going short while the long positions are thinning out. By rights, this should induce some panic, right?

So, guess what— the long-short ratio is still leaning bullish.

The contracts haven't been fully cleaned out. There are still a bunch of long positions hanging around waiting to "catch the bottom," thinking that after such a drop, a rebound is due. The borrowing rates on Binance are still leaning toward the long side, suggesting there are still players borrowing USDT to go long.

From my experience, this kind of slow decline + negative funding rates + but still a bullish long-short ratio combo often needs another round of cleansing. The ETF flows have been intermittent, with no real cash coming in to pick up the slack.

I won’t make a move until I see a panic-inducing bearish candlestick.

ETH just took a dive, losing 460 million, and the long positions are left in shambles.

But I took a look at the contract data, and here's where it gets interesting— the long-short ratio is still leaning bullish, and the USDT lending rate is also on the high side. Logically, after such a massive drop, the bulls should have been wiped out, but these indicators suggest that there are still plenty of bottom feeders around.

Total open interest is 41.3B, hardly reduced at all.

Two possibilities: either there are indeed folks picking up the bags at the bottom, or the hodlers are waiting for a massive rally. Personally, I lean a bit more towards the latter— the funding rate hasn't switched negative, indicating that there aren’t enough shorts, and the bulls are still holding strong.

In this kind of setup, I usually won't rush to catch the bottom. I'll wait for open interest to drop or the funding rate to turn negative before making a move. Jumping in now could just mean changing positions to take another hit.

The Fed not making a move in June is a done deal, with a 98.7% probability that next week we'll see the last minutes under Powell's tenure.

In the past 24 hours, we saw a surge of 466 million, primarily in long positions. The funding rate is also weakening.

When good news doesn't lead to a pump, that's a classic signal. In my experience, it's not the right time to load up on longs. The market is using this macro vacuum period to wash out leverage, and the open interest at 41.3B shows people are still in the game, but the trend has shifted.

Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings report is a key inflection point. The AI narrative has been holding up the market this year; if the earnings beat expectations but the market still doesn't rally, we’re likely to keep searching for a bottom.

While the homies are piling into ETH longs, the gamma fund just dumped 5480 ETH onto Binance, roughly 11.93 million dollars.

On one side, you've got the dead bulls topping up their margin, and on the other, the big players unloading their bags at the exchange.

On the same night, with the same coin, two opposing groups of traders pass each other and toss some insults.

466 million in liquidations are all longs, and the funding rate is currently leaning bearish. ETH is in a pretty tricky spot right now—some folks think it's the bottom and want to scoop up, while others are bailing out quickly on the rebound.

My take? Don't rush to catch a falling knife. Large transfers to the exchange are never a good sign; let this rotation play out before making any moves.

Liquidation of 466 million, primarily long positions.

This number is interesting. In the past 24 hours, the bulls have been heavily stomped, with funding rates across major exchanges turning negative, deepening bearish sentiment. My take is that this drop isn’t a sudden crash but more like a frog in boiling water, systematically washing out long positions—daily declines eating away at leverage bit by bit.

On the ETF side, there’s been a net outflow of nearly 800 million in three days, and institutions are also cutting back. The probability of the Fed not lowering rates in June is at 98.7%, pretty much set in stone; don’t expect liquidity to ease in the short term.

From my experience, when funding rates collectively turn negative along with significant liquidations, there might be a short-term bounce, but that’s not a reversal signal. The altcoin bear market index is still neutral, indicating we haven’t hit true panic levels yet.

Next week, we have Powell’s last meeting minutes during his tenure, along with NVIDIA's earnings report; both lines are worth watching. In this position, I usually take a step back, not feeling itchy to trade.

Maji just added 250,000 USDT to his ETH long position on Hyperliquid. That same night, gammafund transferred 5,480 ETH to Binance.

Whales are battling it out, which side are you on?

466 million in liquidations, with the big players getting liquidated on their longs, and funding rates flipping negative across the board. In this structure, Maji is still stubbornly holding onto his ETH long, and I have to respect someone who's that hard-headed. But this isn't his first rodeo losing money on ETH; after the drop on May 19, he kept buying the dip, and we all know how that story ended.

From my perspective, ETH is in a tricky spot right now. There are definitely bulls like Maji still stepping in at this level, but on the flip side, gammafund is offloading a large position. The negative funding rate indicates that not many are willing to open longs anymore, but the price hasn't dipped into panic territory—this is what we call a dull knife cutting losses.

Let's wait it out; either Maji pushes the price up, or I’ll scoop some after gammafund breaks it down. Until we get right-side confirmation, no guessing the direction.

A billion a week, BTC ETF is on a bit of a tear this week.

On Wednesday, we saw a small green candle pull back 130 million, but the previous two days had significant outflows. This indicates that institutions aren't willing to hold at this level, and they're taking profits on any bounce.

On the ETH side, there was a net outflow of 250 million, which is even worse. Ethereum's narrative is currently non-existent; it's just riding on BTC's coattails.

Next week won't be easy on the macro front either, with Powell's final meeting minutes coming out and NVIDIA's earnings report. Both of these events can set the tone.

According to my strategy, this consistent outflow of capital combined with macro uncertainty isn't the right time to catch a falling knife. I'll wait for the structure to stabilize before making any moves.

The address gammafund.eth just moved 5,480 ETH into Binance, roughly $11.93 million.

Deposits of this size aren't typically made by retail traders. From my experience, when a big wallet dumps ETH into an exchange at this level, it usually means they're either locking in profits because they think the price won't move up in the short term, or they're hedging.

ETH has been in a tough spot these past few months. This week, $250 million flowed out of the ETF, and that's alongside nearly $1 billion flowing out of the BTC ETF. Liquidity is drying up, and altcoins are taking a serious hit.

The issue is, at this price point, it's hard to say how much further it can drop. There are still $600 million worth of buy orders sitting below $76,000 that haven't cleared. Powell's last meeting minutes are due next week, and Nvidia's earnings report is also a wildcard.

My take is: the big wallets are creating space for uncertainty. It's not bearish; they're just keeping some powder dry. Retail traders shouldn't rush to catch falling knives; wait for the minutes and Nvidia's results before making any moves.

Yi Lihua says the rebound is basically over, and now we're in the dark before dawn.

I don't necessarily think that's the case. But there's a level worth watching—over $600 million in long positions are waiting to get liquidated just below $76,000.

BTC just bounced back a bit from $78,000, only missing about two grand. The futures open interest is over $4 billion and still at high levels, with the funding rate leaning towards long positions, as bulls are holding firm.

I've seen this kind of structure a few times before; either we go straight down to liquidate that $600 million, or we might bounce up first before heading down to eat it. The ETF saw nearly $800 million in net outflows over the last three days—institutions are pulling out.

Can't say much else, but when $76,000 hits, I'll be paying extra attention. If that level breaks, there's enough liquidity below to keep things moving for a while.

BTC just touched 78k, and there's still 600 million in long orders waiting for liquidation below 76k.

This week, ETF net outflows are nearing 1 billion, and prices are trending down. But interestingly, the funding rates are still leaning long. What does that indicate? It suggests that the bulls in the market haven't fully capitulated yet, or they haven't been completely shaken out.

This structure is actually quite fragile. The positive funding rates show that people are still betting on a rebound, but if we break through that liquidation zone around 76k, a cascade could happen in an instant.

As Yi Lihua said, it's the darkness before dawn. I actually think it might not be the case; there could be several dark moments before dawn arrives, and the key is to hold your position until then.

At this level, I'm inclined not to catch the falling knife and will wait for the liquidation to finish before considering entry. In a dead cat bounce scenario, it's better to be late than early.

A year ago, that smart money address that averaged in at 3.45 while bottoming out ETH has made another move after a year.

They bought back 647 ETH. The amount isn't huge, but the timing is intriguing—last time they opened a position was in the bottom zone of ETH, and now they’re adding back after a drop lasting over half a year.

My take is: this isn't random behavior. Recently, several similar old addresses on-chain have been cautiously adding back, but this one just happened to get flagged.

What's lacking for ETH right now isn't logic, it's sentiment. ETF outflows are slowing, funding rates are leaning bullish, and positions are slowly being exchanged. Many are still waiting for lower levels, but smart money has already made a move.

This position might not be the absolute bottom. But some have already started to position. The rest is for you to think about.

Funding rate is bullish, ETFs are flowing out, BTC has broken 78k.

These two signals are pretty mixed when you look at them together. On the futures side, the bulls are holding strong, the funding rate is still positive, and retail sentiment hasn’t collapsed. Meanwhile, on the ETF front, institutions are pulling out, with nearly a billion leaving this week.

Retail is holding, while institutions are running—this combination has happened many times in history.

My take is simple: don’t go against the continuous outflow of ETFs. The rebalancing cycle for big money doesn’t wrap up that quickly. At this 78k level, both long and short positions are tricky, but blindly going long is definitely not the optimal play.

Let’s wait for the ETF outflows to slow down before considering a direction. Right now, the market needs time, not positions.

This week's ETF data is pretty interesting.

There was a net outflow of nearly 1 billion over the week, with 630 million dumped on Wednesday, 130 million recovered on Thursday, and another 290 million flowing out on Friday. The pattern is clear—when there's a bounce, it's time to sell, no hesitation.

BTC just broke 78k, and looking at the liquidation map, there's a wall of long positions below at 76k, totaling over 600 million dollars. The total open interest for major contracts is 4 billion; if we push down to 76k, the cascading liquidations won't be a joke.

The funding rate is still leaning bullish, indicating that the longs are holding strong. But with continuous selling pressure from the ETF side and prices breaking levels, looking at the long-to-short ratio isn’t very useful right now.

At the broken level, first check where the liquidity is. 76k is key; if we hit it, it's game over. If it holds, we just grind here and wait for the handover to complete.

The situation is actually pretty simple—some are selling, some are holding, and we're just missing a trigger to ignite things.

BTC just broke through 78k.

Even though it bounced back, there's a massive buy wall of 628 million at 76k waiting to get liquidated. With liquidity just sitting there, it’s surprising the whales haven’t come to scoop some up.

My take is that 76k will likely be tested. It might either slowly grind down to it or have a sharp spike down before bouncing back. Regardless of the path, it's not a good spot to go long aggressively in the short term.

Yili Hua mentioned that the rebound is basically over, it's the darkness before dawn. That’s a heavy statement, but I agree with the direction.

Let’s wait for the reaction when we hit 76k before making any moves; there’s no need to catch a falling knife on the left side.

The address that accumulated ETH at an average price of $3.45 a year ago made a move yesterday.

After a whole year of silence, they just scooped up 647 ETH.

Honestly, when a wallet of this caliber re-enters the game, it's more noteworthy than any candlestick signals I've seen. What does $3.45 represent? That's the point during the last deep bear market when panic was at its peak. Anyone who was able to accumulate at that level clearly has a serious understanding of ETH.

A year of inactivity shows they really don't care about short-term fluctuations. Now that they're back to buying, my interpretation is: this price range looks good to them again.

I can't tell you what to do right now, but my habit is to check my positions whenever this smart money starts re-accumulating.

Tracking whales isn't about mindlessly copying their trades; it's about watching when they decide they've seen enough and say, "That's it."

Binance has launched perpetual contracts for US stocks, allowing you to directly trade contracts on Rocket Lab and storage ETFs.

What’s interesting here is that the compliance boundaries are clearly shifting. Previously, CEXs only cycled through a handful of coins, but now they're diving straight into the actual stocks. For traders, the most practical change is the ability to short US stocks without leaving the crypto space, making it much easier to hedge against macro risks.

However, the liquidity of these new contracts is an unknown. Rocket Lab's average daily trading volume on NASDAQ isn’t substantial, so it's uncertain whether market makers will be willing to provide depth for these perpetual contracts. My usual approach is to watch for a couple of days before jumping in, to avoid slipping on the entry.

There’s also a lot of chatter around gold hitting 5000, and analysts are quite divided. If gold really heads toward that level, BTC will inevitably be lifted by the risk-off logic; it’s just a matter of time.

Loracle's HYPE short is pretty interesting.

Previously, during that HYPE pump, he held through the drawdown without selling, riding it with 5x leverage without getting liquidated. Now it seems he weathered the storm, and his unrealized profits are back over $40 million.

Here are two points I think are worth pondering.

First, the fact that this level of address held strong and wasn't washed out indicates that the game around the HYPE contract at this position isn't over yet. His ability to break even or even profit isn't because HYPE dropped significantly, but because time is on his side—the funding rates and time decay are helping him reduce costs. The logic for shorting, if not based on fundamental shifts towards bearish sentiment but rather on "it’s gone up too much, so it should drop," can actually be quite risky.

Second, at this position, his unrealized profits have been reestablished. If he wants to lock in profits, there will likely be some closing actions. Of course, it could also mean he's waiting for the bigger picture.

I don't judge right or wrong, but the movements of such addresses are essentially a living map. Monitoring these addresses is more useful than any analysis.

ETH ETF has seen net outflows for five consecutive trading days, with another $65.7 million leaving yesterday. It’s not that there’s a fundamental issue with ETH. The key here is the current liquidity environment, where funds naturally gravitate towards higher certainty.

At least BTC has the halving narrative backing it, but ETH is clearly losing steam in the DeFi and L2 spaces—honestly, there hasn't been a compelling reason to use ETH this year.

Just look at the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it's been hovering near new lows, and this isn’t just a short-term trend.

I believe ETH has value. But when trading, you can't just focus on value; you also need to consider when marginal funds are willing to return. Without a clear catalyst, it’s not surprising to see sideways action or further declines.

Just wait.

Elon’s tweet doesn’t have much to say, but the WSJ dropping news about Gemini’s co-founders, those early Bitcoin players, shifting to Zcash is definitely worth a closer look.

The privacy sector has been almost forgotten by the market over the past couple of years. I can’t even remember the last time Zcash made a splash. But these folks aren’t just your average retail FOMO crowd; they’re part of the original Bitcoin OGs—they know the score when it comes to Bitcoin’s "pseudo-anonymity."

My take is: when the oldest money in the game starts rebalancing, it’s usually not just a whim. The narrative around privacy has been suppressed under regulatory pressure, but the issues stemming from on-chain transparency (MEV, sandwich attacks, large wallet addresses being monitored) are becoming more serious. If this shift can bring a wave of developers back, the Zcash ecosystem might see a nice recovery rally.

Of course, ZEC’s liquidity can’t compare to BTC, so don’t go too heavy on your positions. But it’s worth keeping an eye on the direction.