Recently busy, haven't posted in a long time 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ 1. #BTC , expected range 85500-82800, expected trend down rebound; 2. #ETH , expected range 1640-1570, expected trend down rebound; 3. Today at 23:00 New York one-year inflation expectations (expected slight negative impact) (Undetermined time) Trump announces more details on tariffs (expected positive impact)
【Market Analysis】 Bitcoin and alternative currency surged on Saturday and corrected on Sunday, because on Saturday Trump granted tariff exemptions on some high-end products from China, but on Sunday reiterated that he was only temporarily exempting tariffs and his stance was inconsistent; However, essentially, Trump’s trade war can no longer continue, and it will inevitably enter a stage of negotiation and repair. The overall situation is — ① The trade war is nearing its end, and the emotional atmosphere is being repaired, looking bullish in the next direction. Use the pullback to set up long positions. The market panic and declines caused by the trade war are being repaired (Bitcoin returning to the range of 80000-85000; alternative currency returning to the range of 1550-1750);
② On Friday, the U.S. one-year inflation expectations rose to a significant negative impact of 6.7%, yet it couldn't shake the U.S. stock market/cryptocurrency market, with bulls particularly strong. Due to the EU announcing tariffs on the U.S. starting April 15, a market pullback is expected, but it will quickly enter a negotiation stage and will not get worse; Trump may announce more tariff details tonight, which needs attention (expected positive impact)
❤️ Therefore, today we first look for a pullback and then for an increase. 【Mid-term Outlook】
The trade war is nearing its end with Trump’s concessions (positive impact); the next focus will be on speculating interest rate cut expectations (positive impact); It is expected that Bitcoin, alternative currency, and U.S. stocks will not break last week's low again. If there is a significant drop, consider it an opportunity to go long. Alternative currencies will also have a significant rebound; In the long term, the bull market is nearing its end; for alternative currencies and spot trading, selling should occur in the next one to two months when rebounds approach 30%-50% from the declines since December. 【Strategy】
Focus on high shorts and low longs at the edges of the drawn ranges.
The current market has not yet formed a reversal condition, with the $83,000 area continuously accumulating chips, but three major contradictory signals have emerged alongside the price increase: 1. CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June has risen to 25%, while expectations for rate cuts continue to weaken; 2. The on-chain turnover rate has sharply increased, revealing the tendency of long-term holders to reduce their positions; 3. The daily selling volume of whale accounts has reached a recent high, creating a cross-market resonance with the outflow of funds from the U.S. Treasury market.
This round of rebound is essentially a mixed product of short covering and policy game, and although $83,000 shows technical bottoming characteristics, the chip structure remains loose. Especially under the resonance of rate cut expectation adjustments and institutional sell-offs, one must be cautious of the secondary bottoming risk caused by liquidity withdrawal.
🌹Operation suggestion: Gradually lay out short positions relying on the resistance zone of $85,000-$86,000, and be wary of false breakouts that lure in buyers.
After a week of continuous blows in the market, yesterday, Monday, finally welcomed a glimmer of hope. The US stock market, after a series of declines, also closed higher, no longer in a panic sell-off. This week, global assets should enter a rebound mode, let's cherish every moment. The daily chart for Bitcoin yesterday closed with a doji star, indicating a strong expectation for a trend change, with Ethereum following suit. Today's overall focus is on going long, with the overnight position of Bitcoin set at 77400 becoming the starting point for this week. In a highly volatile market, both bulls and bears have opportunities. Bitcoin: 77400——82500 Ethereum: 1540——1712
Today's Viewpoint Yesterday, on Sunday, global assets plummeted: gold, crude oil, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, various futures— the world has gone mad. The United States is taxing the entire world, and there is panic everywhere. Today, the Asian stock market is bound to experience turbulence. In such a market condition, it is difficult to have a good performance; one can go long on larger timeframes (at least hourly) and go short on 15-minute to 30-minute timeframes. Today's trading is quite challenging. Set your stop-loss #BTC : 76500——81000
Institution: Asian stock markets plummet, and the market is eager for the U.S. to cut interest rates quickly
【Institution: Asian stock markets plummet, and the market is eager for the U.S. to cut interest rates quickly】Golden Finance reports that major Asian stock indices plummeted on Monday, as White House officials showed no signs of abandoning their comprehensive tariff plan. Investors are betting on an increased risk of a U.S. economic recession, with the earliest rate cut possible in May. The futures market quickly reflected expectations of nearly five rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the U.S. this year.
Sean Callow, senior forex analyst at Sydney ITC Markets, stated: “The only real circuit breaker is President Trump's comments, and there are almost no signs that the market sell-off has troubled him enough to reconsider the policy stance he has held for decades.” Previously, investors believed that the loss of trillions of dollars in wealth and the potential devastating impact on the economy would make Trump reconsider his plans.
Gold has fallen 📉 U.S. stocks have fallen 📉 Bitcoin #BTC☀ has risen 📈 the crypto market overall 📈
Is this a flow of safe-haven funds into the crypto market? (๑•̌.•̑๑)ˀ̣ˀ̣ Is this a script? 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ I can't understand it Brothers 👬 what do you think? 🤔🤔🤔
#加密市场回调 The market is once again plunged into a liquidity panic, with endless declines. The US stock market plummeted 6% yesterday, exceeding expectations. Although cryptocurrencies have temporarily recovered, it is merely a delay in the downward trend. Currently, the difficulty of market operations is significant; each trade must include a stop-loss, and do not hold positions recklessly.
The counterattack before the decline, the piercing through the position before the rise, all kinds of bizarre trends are commonplace. From a daily chart perspective, both $BTC and $ETH are currently in a range-bound stagnation. If the US stock market performs well, a rebound could occur at any time. If the US stock market continues to collapse, the cryptocurrency market will also accelerate its decline or even catch up on losses.
#BTC : Support 78000 — Resistance 85700 #ETH : Support 1700 — Resistance 1855
In short, always adapt to market changes; do not blindly follow the trend or simply go long❤️
Making a profit is the most important thing 👍💰(。・ω・。)
Brothers👬, the contract strategy these days is to buy low and sell high🈳. If you make a profit, just run; go with the trend, don't hold positions, and don't trade against the trend. Otherwise, there are two outcomes: either a margin call or a profit reversal🤢🤢#加密市场回调 be a bit more carefree🕐