Do not expect the domestic market to lift the restrictions on Bitcoin and virtual currency trading, because lifting the restrictions on Bitcoin means free foreign exchange conversion, and many people do not understand what foreign exchange control means at all. In fact, the biggest privilege in the country is the foreign exchange privilege, because the value of the RMB and personal benefits become meaningless once they reach a certain level. There is no limit to how much you can have, but foreign exchange must be earned back through manufacturing, which is also a necessary condition for a smooth landing for future generations. Therefore, foreign exchange control cannot possibly be lifted, and Bitcoin and virtual currencies cannot possibly be released; anyone who dares to bet can try.

Regarding the termination of USDT's application in the EU market on December 30, it is believed that USDT must have weighed the pros and cons. The key is that according to EU requirements, a large amount of customer data from Asia, especially from Chinese customers, must be provided, which will lead to the loss of many customers. There are gains and losses! Moreover, USDT's transparency is indeed lacking!

The Federal Reserve will have another action in 2025 that is more important than cutting interest rates. Almost no analysts are paying attention to this issue. That is exiting QT. As we all know, in addition to raising and lowering interest rates, the Federal Reserve’s more important function is to regulate the liquidity of the US dollar, that is, quantitative easing QE and quantitative tightening QT. A very strange phenomenon in this interest rate cut cycle is that it has not exited QT for a long time, and it is still withdrawing US dollar liquidity at a scale of 30 billion US dollars every month. This has a great impact on the market U.S. Treasury bond interest rates and the US dollar. Logically, the Federal Reserve should have begun to consider exiting QT and stop withdrawing US dollars from the market. This action will bring about large fluctuations in Bitcoin.

MSTR, a clear-cut bull, is most likely to be blocked by funds and will surely die in the future. Once it goes bankrupt, a huge amount of Bitcoin will be sold all at once. Bitcoin is still in its rising period, so there is no big problem for the time being. The debt and cash flow problems can be covered up. Once it enters the adverse period, MSTR's tight cash flow and high debt problems will be exposed all at once. Let's see if my prediction is accurate.

During the Christmas period, altcoins will experience a rebound, and the reason is simple: platforms like Binance and OKEx are closed during U.S. stock market hours, and investors cannot trade ETFs and MSTR. During this time, Bitcoin will not experience significant fluctuations, making it an ideal opportunity to speculate on altcoins for profit. Therefore, altcoins will surge before Christmas week and then drop significantly afterward, completing a short-term fluctuation. Be cautious of risks when chasing highs; it's a quick in-and-out strategy. Once U.S. stock investors return from their holidays, Bitcoin may experience significant volatility again.

Many people know that the biggest driver of this Bitcoin bull market is BlackRock, and that MSTR's largest shareholder is also BlackRock and Vanguard. But have people considered that BlackRock manages $10 trillion in assets, while Vanguard manages $7 trillion? Logically, if they casually invested $100 billion in Bitcoin, the price could easily rise above $200,000. So why are they hesitant? Instead, they are using MSTR as a firewall, indirectly borrowing $20-30 billion to buy Bitcoin? This indicates that they do not have full confidence in Bitcoin's future, or they see some risks that we do not understand. A $100 billion investment is really a small amount for two companies with $20 trillion in assets. Have people thought this through? A rise of Bitcoin to $200,000 is not a certain event.

Anyone who analyzes the current market trends based on past performance is essentially wasting their time; such people lack even the most basic common sense. The total market value of virtual currencies has now reached four trillion dollars. How could it possibly multiply several times like in the past? It's absurd that some people still hope for Bitcoin to double or for altcoins to increase tenfold. Do they really believe that the market value of virtual currencies could exceed that of U.S. stocks and bonds? Only a fool would believe that.

For the past two weeks, I have been emphasizing the reality of Bitcoin's impending peak. Unfortunately, many people still refuse to believe it, and some continue to chase higher prices with full positions at the peak. I believe that the recent decline will awaken more people. 2024 is indeed a big bull market for Bitcoin, rising from a bottom of 15,000 to a maximum of 108,000, nearly a sevenfold increase, with trading volume also surging to over 100 billion dollars. I personally do not deny that virtual currencies may expand their market value in the future, but this will take several years to develop gradually; it cannot be achieved in just a month or two. The survival ecosystem of Bitcoin and virtual currencies is still very unhealthy and requires a lot of regulations and oversight. Most platforms are not publicly listed and there are severe practices of manipulating and harvesting retail investors. Therefore, it indeed needs to cool down for a while, waiting for more commercial promotions of virtual currencies and for more platforms to go public and accept regulation, so that the market value can progress further! The next few months will mainly be characterized by volatility, and in January, it will drop below 88,000 and undergo wide-ranging fluctuations downwards!

When encountering a rebound, just seize the opportunity to sell.

Bitcoin falling below one hundred thousand dollars is an inevitable event! Believe it or not!

In the past few days, it has been emphasized that there will be no interest rate cuts in the first quarter, and the peak of Bitcoin has arrived, but unfortunately, many people do not believe it and continue to chase the highs.

From the diagram below, we can see how similar the shape of Bitcoin's peak of 73,900 points in March this year is to this month? After a significant increase over a month, it formed an upper shadow, and as a result, deep adjustments began the following month, taking half a year to rise again to a new high. This time, the increase in November was enormous, and at the same time, a huge amount of trapped positions accumulated above one hundred thousand dollars. Therefore, the adjustment in January should exceed 20%, and we can see it below 88,000 points.

It is clear that Bitcoin is already at the end of its strength. The most obvious evidence is that the previous high of 104,000 is only 4,000 points away from the most recent high of 108,000. The key point is that it took 15 days in between. To know that in the entire month of November, which has 30 days, Bitcoin actually rose more than 30,000 points, averaging 1,000 points a day. Therefore, the recent rise of only 4,000 points in the last two weeks is already a sign of the end of the bull market with stagnation!

The more chips trapped in the range above one hundred thousand dollars, the better; this way, the top will be more effective, and the resistance range formed later can last longer.

After Trump took office, the U.S. Congress will pass a bill to prohibit Trump and Musk from investing in and speculating on virtual currencies and stocks during their government tenure. At that time, will Trump and Musk still be so eager to promote the U.S. government's Bitcoin reserves? Will they still work so hard to support Bitcoin as a virtual currency? They have been so vocal in promoting Bitcoin; is it truly for America or for their own interests? The political elites in the U.S. have already paid attention to this issue and proposed relevant bills. Just like the construction of the wall at the Mexico-U.S. border back in the day, which was aimed at preventing Trump’s own company from bidding, related bills were introduced to prohibit it, and the wall funding was delayed until Trump’s last year to be passed.

Many people casually predict tops and bottoms, but those who truly understand the market only pay attention to trading volume. If the trading volume expands to its limit while the price increases significantly slows down, that's when the top has truly arrived. Currently, Bitcoin and its derivatives have a daily trading volume of nearly 100 billion dollars, which is almost half of that of the US stock market. It's important to understand that funds cannot expand infinitely. If Bitcoin experiences stagflation at this point, it is a characteristic of the top, and this is also an important indicator for my judgment of the top. Unlike some people who casually say it will surge to 120,000, 150,000, or even 200,000, these levels require more capital support; where will all that capital come from?

Be cautious when bottom-fishing at the end of a bull market; many people get trapped when trying to bottom-fish at the tail end of a bull market. That trap can last a very long time. Or it may be that sweeping up talent at the end of a bull market is the most powerful.

I personally predict that by the end of December, Bitcoin will drop back below $100,000, forming a top pattern. Based on the current daily trading volume of Bitcoin and derivatives exceeding $100 billion, the range above $100,000 will lock in several hundred billion in funds, including $20-30 billion from MSTR. This range will become an important resistance zone in the future, and breaking through this resistance zone may indeed require waiting for Trump's entire four-year term.

The market's frenzied sentiment for chasing high prices has clearly retreated, and more and more people are starting to cash out profits for safety. The remaining MSTR, a stubborn long position, is still struggling to hold on. After all, the debt scale is increasing, and Bitcoin cannot be sold for cash. If Bitcoin cannot continue to rise, MSTR will face numerous creditors demanding repayment. The top pattern of Bitcoin has already begun to take shape.

Last night MSTR continued to decline, the bear market pattern is already very obvious, the 480-543 area has trapped over 100 billion in chips, this Bitcoin leader has already been pressed down, and the financing ability is also significantly decreasing. Do you think Bitcoin can still go far? Personally, I insist that Bitcoin will reach a peak in the next two weeks, between the positions of 107000-115000, the peak could appear at any time. Waiting for the daily upper shadow line, weekly upper shadow line, and monthly upper shadow line to appear.