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👇🏼$TON

It took one month.$RENDER

👇🏼

$RENDER 5.4 soon

$TON Ready for the next dive? $3.76 is coming soon.

$TON at $4 is very expensive

$BTC If you think you can profit from the alt season, you're simply naive.

Bitcoin was created as the world's first cryptocurrency and remains the only one that aligns with its original concept: a decentralized system beyond the control of governments and financial institutions. While this paradigm has shifted toward centralization in some ways, the core idea persists. Unlike Bitcoin, most other cryptocurrencies were designed with the primary goal of enriching their creators, turning into tools for fraud $ETH $XRP . They mislead investors with promises of innovation, but in reality, they only divert attention and resources away from the true revolution embodied in Bitcoin.

Governments and major corporations are beginning to understand that alternatives to Bitcoin are unsustainable. This is why we are witnessing growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. Discussions about regulation and Bitcoin’s integration into global financial systems confirm that even initial skeptics are recognizing its uniqueness.

Bitcoin’s dominance will only continue to grow. As public awareness develops, more people will realize that most crypto projects offer no real value, neither in the present nor the future. When the disillusionment with the fleeting "innovations" of altcoins reaches its peak, assets will flow into the one cryptocurrency that has stood the test of time and remains ideologically sound—Bitcoin. It represents the future of finance, where honesty and decentralization are the foundational principles.

Before investing in $TON , you should understand several important points that I outlined in my previous posts. Here, I will attach information from official sources.

https://tonviewer.com/believers.ton

https://t.me/tonblockchain/182

Continuation of the Post

**Vesting and Predictions**

Carefully studying Telegram’s vesting smart contracts, one can conclude that all $TON are frozen for one year with a total vesting period of 5 years. The first unlock phase will occur in February 2025, when a quarter of all TON will be unlocked, and then a portion of coins will be released each month until 2028.

Interestingly, almost all long-term lock-up TON buyers sold their current TON coins in April-June 2024 (at a price of $6-7). This might indicate their confidence that the price of TON will decrease, especially considering they bought at a discount of up to 50%.

Starting in 2025, TON will begin to unlock not only through Telegram’s OTC sales but also via the long-forgotten TON Believers Fund, into which companies like TOP and DWF invested. That fund holds, mind you, 1.3 billion TON. This will create significant market pressure. According to my calculations, by the end of 2025, the price of TON may fall below $3.

Additionally, in 2027, 171 inactive wallets from early miners with a total balance of 1 billion TON will be unlocked. While there is an understanding that these wallets belong to Telegram, it doesn't instill confidence in the future.

**Conclusions**

The TON Foundation is actively increasing TVL (Total Value Locked) and stimulating blockchain activity through boosts and the open league, aiming to reach $1 billion in TVL. This will help attract more investors to The Gateway. However, boosts are not endless, and from February 2025 to 2028, significant changes in the TON price are expected, which could lead to serious market fluctuations.

It is also worth noting that Telegram in all presentations mentions that by 2028, 500 million users will join TON. However, newcomers will have no idea about the OTC sales or how the TON from early miners was locked up, and by then, all unlocks will have concluded.

$TON Will Fall, and Here's Why

Clever Moves by Telegram and TON Foundation

Where is the TON from the sale of usernames and anonymous numbers on Fragment going? The correct answer is, of course, Telegram. Pavel Durov stated back in February 2024 that Telegram intends to limit its TON holdings to 10% of the total supply, which amounts to 510 million TON. Since that day, Telegram has begun selling TON through over-the-counter (OTC) deals with a discount of 10% to 50%, while also setting lock-ups for 1 to 5 years.

Telegram OTC: Wallet Analysis

By analyzing Telegram and Fragment wallets, it can be observed that they currently hold a total of 4% of the entire TON supply, meaning that most of the coins have already been sold. The entire sale and management process of TON occurs through vesting contracts, which release a certain number of coins within set periods. A separate section for this has even been created on the website vesting.ton.org

Upon investigating the wallets to which TON was transferred from Telegram, I discovered the following key points:
1. Staking: Telegram is actively participating in TON staking through multiple single-pool nominators. This allows them to earn about 3% annual returns.
2. Validators: Telegram, with the funds from Fragment, acts as a TON network validator. However, the validators are not active in voting. For example, in a recent vote to reduce network fees, they simply did not cast their votes.
3. Investments in Pools: Around 30 million TON were directed into pools via smart contracts from TON Whales. This decision seems strange, considering they have smart contracts from TOP and an entire liquid staking platform, Tonstakers. Don’t they trust it?

There are no more interesting mechanisms for using locked TON. Among the interesting buyers, I was able to identify only @whale, who bought 3.6 million TON, and the largest purchase from an unknown buyer was 22.7 million TON.

Part two