1/n The first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which the market has been looking forward to and hyping for half a year, has finally come to an end.

The first interest rate cut was 50, and the median of the dot plot shows that by the end of 24 years, a total of 100 basis points will be cut (or two remaining 25 basis points); it is expected that by 25 years, the interest rate will drop to 3.4%, a reduction of about 100 basis points.

Overall, dovish interest rate cuts + dovish dot plots + Tai Chi speeches

2/n Powell's speech continued his usual Tai Chi style, and the market once fell because he did not give a clear signal.
The message conveyed is still effective:
First, the statement of "firmly committed to supporting full employment" was added;
Second, people's expectations for continued large-scale interest rate cuts in the future were extinguished. Future interest rate cuts may be fast, slow or suspended depending on the data;
Finally, it denied that it was a hasty interest rate cut that lagged behind the situation, and it was still a "preventive interest rate cut"

3/n The last point is the most important. The market previously speculated that a 50% interest rate cut would lead to a sharp drop, which was to believe that the Fed saw worse data that people could not see and cut interest rates hastily and drastically.
This time, Powell still expressed that "the economy is fine, the labor market is very solid, and the interest rate cut is to maintain this situation."
In the past, I personally believed that a 50%+ interest rate cut would be good news as long as it could appease the market

4/n Looking back at the market's reaction, the market rose when the interest rate cut result came out, fell during Powell's speech, and after a short-term ups and downs, it finally accepted the result of this interest rate cut with a relatively calm and optimistic attitude.

#BTC is still optimistic. It has broken through the downward trend line again and stood above it. If it does not fall back to the trend line, it can still rebound.
Small resistance above 63300; big resistance, previous high & upper edge of the channel 65000

n/n If the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is considered to have passed, the next level is Japan's interest rate decision tomorrow.
Currently, the market believes that the Bank of Japan has only a 6% chance of raising interest rates in October, and the probability of raising interest rates at the end of the year is only 38%
This meeting is likely to remain unchanged, but if a hawkish signal of continuing to raise interest rates this year is heard, market confidence will still be shaken. But the impact is definitely not as good as the unexpected interest rate hike in July.
In short, there are opportunities in danger, so let's wait and see.

1/ #SPX500 The S&P started to pull back last week due to the plunge of Nvidia. Although multiple data still support the argument of a soft landing, the "recession theory" has regained the upper hand. The short-term end of the inversion of the yield curve has also exacerbated investors' concerns about the recession.
In addition, last week's employment data was not ideal, JOLTS vacancies fell sharply, and ADP was far below expectations (recorded an increase of 99,000, an increase lower than the expected 145,000).

2/ The most important non-agricultural data was mixed. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, which was in line with expectations. The number of new jobs in August was 142,000, lower than the expected 165,000, and the previous value was also significantly revised down.
Overall, "not as bad as expected, but not very good either", but it has never been possible to give a clear answer to the extent of the interest rate cut in September.
The market is wavering under this uncertainty. Although the plunge has been repaired this week, the crisis has not been resolved.

3/ The classic weak trend in September will continue to drag down the market. In addition to metaphysical factors, there are also objective factors, such as tax issues, and companies entering a silent period of repurchases for several weeks.

There are several influential events this week:
Inflation: CPI data on Wednesday
Employment: Initial jobless claims on Thursday
Others: 9.10 US presidential debate; 9.10 Apple conference

4/ #BTC The weekly line continued to fall last week, and it made a pin to withdraw the previous low of 53300 and started a rebound, but there is no independent market, and the rebound and decline will be synchronized with the US stock market;
Support below, the lower edge of the channel is 50500; weekly MA60 support (mid-term rising dividing line) -48500

5/ In the short term, #BTC tested the central axis of the daily channel last night, and it was strong and volatile when it stood above, and the previous high of 60200 can be expected;
The H4 downward trend line was broken, and the support level of 56000 could stand firm, so it could continue to rebound. If it falls below, it will be hedged for protection.
The current market is not a pattern at all, and it can only change flexibly with the market.
Just get through it...

1/ #spx500 S&P continues to fluctuate near the previous high. The economic data released last week continue to support optimistic economic expectations (durable goods data surged and Q2 GDP revised upward), and the PCE, which is basically as expected, also reflects the downward trend in inflation.
Therefore, the trend of oscillating upward may continue in early September, and the hype of economic soft landing and interest rate cuts will continue. After the September interest rate cuts are implemented and the corporate buyback window is closed, the correction will start.

2/ The big non-agricultural data on Friday will determine whether the narrative of economic soft landing can continue.

September is an eventful month with many major events, and it is also a month with many declines in history.

9.6 Big non-agricultural
9.10 US presidential debate
9.11 US August CPI
9.18 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting
9.29 CZ is released from prison

3/ The decline curse in September also applies to #BTC , with a probability of decline of nearly 80%.
So everyone postponed the expectation of rising to October. After all, after October, the good market seems to last until March next year.
Of course, statistical data focuses on the sample size, so neither of them can be fully trusted, just to increase some thoughts.

4/ Moreover, if the US stock market can continue to rise under the same macroeconomic situation of stability with worries, it depends on strong corporate profits.
The currency circle, which has no innovation, no new narrative, and no incremental funds in the past six months, does lack endogenous rising momentum.
The market has been shouting for a long time about the darkness before dawn, but it turns out that it is darker after the darkness. I don’t know if it’s over, but it’s definitely closer, so we should be more patient at this time.

5/ BTC closed with a long lower shadow on the monthly line, and the overall trend is still in the downward channel;
The weekly line engulfed the gains of last week, and the trend is not optimistic. If the short-term support of 57,000 cannot be supported, it will need to continue to test the previous low and the lower edge of the channel support 52,500-53,500.
The key support is the weekly MA60 support (mid-term rising dividing line) -48,600

1/ The strongest on the surface #英伟达 released its financial report, but it fell sharply after the market, because the financial report was a thunderbolt?
On the contrary, the financial report is actually very good, but it is a pity that it is called NVIDIA, 100 points is not enough, it needs 120 points, far exceeding expectations.

Revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations, and gross profit margin was in line with expectations, but lower than 78.9% in the first quarter, which also caused people to worry about the peak of profit margins.

2/ But the biggest impact is still the third quarter guidance
Based on the guidance range, #英伟达 expects a year-on-year growth of 75.8% to 82.9% in the third quarter, while the highest revenue expected by analysts means an increase of 109.2%. In other words, the revenue growth in the third quarter will slow to double digits for the first time in the last six quarters, and Wall Street's optimistic expectations will still maintain triple-digit growth.
To appease the market, Nvidia also announced a large-scale repurchase plan of US$50 billion

3/ However, under the influence of emotions, the market does not seem to react much to this repurchase plan.
In fact, Nvidia is still Nvidia, and the fundamentals are still the same fundamentals. It is too early to start shorting it.
It is just that in the short term, driven by emotions, it can be suppressed below 100 again, which is still a good time to pick up bargains.

4/ However, if Big Brother #英伟达 wants to go down first, the US stock market will also start to correct, and if the cryptocurrency circle is not doing well, do we have to follow it? This... is a headache.

After the sharp drop, the market entered a disorderly consolidation. In the short term, if it rebounds first, see if there is an opportunity to rebound and short; if it falls directly first, see if there is a price reaction to the support below.
In the long term, I still want to maintain a bullish bias, and I hope I will not be disappointed
😂

Lost. There is no ride, only a shuttle bus, how to go there and how to come back.
I thought I could make another rebound and wait for the second test, now it's good, just wait patiently for the end of the second test

1/ At present, the market is still immersed in the optimism after Powell's dovish speech. The focus is on whether there will be some corrections in the US market tonight.
Because if you think about it carefully, you will find that Powell did not reveal more information, except for implementing the consensus expectation of interest rate cuts, and it is still unclear whether the interest rate cut will be 25 or 50.
However, it is clear that inflation will no longer be the focus in the future, and the employment market will be the key to influencing policies.

2/ At the same time, his statement that "further cooling of the employment market is not welcome" also increased the confidence of the market. When the employment market deteriorates further, it may bring about a larger interest rate cut to prevent a larger economic decline.
The non-agricultural data next Friday, September 6th, is the top priority. After the data is released, a consensus should be reached on the interest rate cut.
I hope the data will not be too weak. Although poor data can bring about a larger interest rate cut, a preventive interest rate cut is always better than a relief interest rate cut.

3/ #SPX500 S&P V-shaped reversal fluctuated near the previous high, and will challenge the previous high this week.
There are no particularly important macro data this week, except for unemployment benefits on Thursday and PCE on Friday. More important is the financial report of #NVDA after the market on Wednesday.
If Nvidia's financial report is positive, it can help the market continue to move up.

4/ #BTC has broken through the rebound pressure level of -62000, which is a strong performance. Whether it is last week's retracement to take more or just chasing more when it breaks through, you can continue to hold patiently with a stop loss.
If the retracement does not break the rising trend line, it will continue to rebound, but it needs to stand above 67000 to confirm that the trend has reversed.
The good or bad economy will directly affect the comeback of recession trading. But before it comes, it's not bad to take a ride on the rebound.

The S&P fell sharply in early August (S&P cumulatively -10%, Nasdaq cumulatively -16%), and then quickly reversed. It has now returned to the upward trend. It does not mean that there will be no correction later, but unless there is a black swan, there is no possibility of a deep decline.
July CPI was lower than expected, and US retail sales in July were higher than expected. Everything points to a rate cut in September, but a 25% rate cut seems to be enough.
The most important macro event this week is Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, no one else

#BTC After a deep drop on August 5, it closed positive for two consecutive weeks. The rebound of 0.618 suppression level 62000 has not been reached. It cannot be said that it has returned to the upward trend. It is still in a shock repair. Waiting for the opportunity of a second exploration.
The current idea is very simple, either waiting for an opportunity to explore a new low without breaking the second exploration, or waiting for the formation of an upward trend on the right.

1/ Yesterday, I thought that the market might use the data to re-hype the recession expectations and start the second exploration.
However, the data was unexpectedly good. US retail sales expenditures in July increased by 1% month-on-month, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was slightly lower than expected, falling to the lowest level since July.

The sharp rise in US stocks seems to have swept away the haze of recession, but we cannot be too optimistic at present. The pressure on the manufacturing industry is still there, and there is uncertainty in the short-term economy.

2/ But as a good student, the US stock market will never make people worry too much. If you are worried, it will be good to add some defensive stocks.

On the other hand, #BTC is not very good here. It basically ignores the data and starts the second exploration as scheduled.
Yesterday, the small gap of the previous rise was filled. Has the second exploration been completed? It should not be considered yet.
Personally, I want to wait patiently for the resonance area of ​​the previous low and 0.618, 53300-54200; and the lower edge of the channel near 51300.

3/ In addition, from a statistical perspective, is it better to cut interest rates by 25% or 50%?
Inflation and retail data provide reasons for a 25% cut, but do not support a 50% cut. The market interprets this as negative. Let's see how much the cut is.

Figure 1: It describes the performance of the S&P 1-5 years after the first 25% or 50% cut. From the data, a 25% cut is more friendly.
Figure 2: It shows that in addition to the rate cut, the economy is the key, and a rate cut in a non-recessionary environment can bring positive growth.

Inflation returned to the 2-digit range, but the market reacted flatly.
This is mainly because the expectation of a rate cut is relatively certain, and the difference is no more than a 25% or 50% cut.
When inflation is more certain, the market becomes more worried about the weakness of the job market and the economy.
Therefore, the initial jobless claims data at 8:30 tonight and the monthly rate of US retail sales in July become more important. Recession trading may be restarted at any time, and the second probe may follow.

4/ The impact on the US stock market will depend more on the US fundamentals. Currently, 3/4 of the companies in the S&P 500 have released financial reports, with an overall profit of 11.5%, the highest since Q4 of 21.
The following figure borrows the data of my favorite US stock analyst, Meitoujun. It can be seen that although there are concerns about corporate profits, there are no major problems.

Therefore, the excessive panic plunge is a rare opportunity to buy at the bottom. I also took some favorite US stocks last night.

5/ Finally, looking back at the currency circle, at the end of July, it was said that August 4 was a new moon, which is often the beginning of a decline. It is really mysterious and accurate.
Unfortunately, I only made a small short in advance when the#BTCchannel was falsely broken, and then I forgot about it, and I also took this wave of violent washing.
Although there is a rebound now, I dare not be too optimistic.
The US stock market has performance support, and the currency circle has no good news but only bad news recently, and it may have to survive until September.

6/#BTCIn the short term, it has returned to the channel. If it can maintain above the previous low of 53,300, it can continue to rebound, otherwise it will still test the second time.
If it breaks the new low in the second test, the next important support will be 42,000-45,000.

Plug and copy the spot, don't use leverage, leverage and wait for the right side.
Strange and random learning, August 20 is a full moon. Let's see how it performs then.

1/ Yesterday was a wonderful day. Fortunately, you and I survived. Now let's take a good look at the current market.

The reason for the plunge is that the yen interest rate increased, the US dollar interest rate decreased, the carry rate disappeared, and the risk assets were sold off in large quantities, which led to the circuit breakers of many national stock markets. In addition, the increase in non-farm unemployment triggered the Sahm rule. The geopolitical crisis has not dissipated. Mr. Buffett also sold half of his Apple warehouse with cash in his hands, waiting for the collapse...

2/ This really fulfills the saying that it is a perfect storm on the emotional side, and all macro events are exacerbating panic.

Is the market overreacting? Today, it seems that it is. The Japanese and Korean stock markets have rebounded sharply. The government has stated that it has sufficient policy capabilities and will take measures in the event of excessive market fluctuations.

Even when the market began to hype recession concerns last week, I was not too worried. At present, it is just a trading recession and not a real recession.

3/ The July employment report has temporary layoffs and hurricanes. The agency expects the unemployment rate to return to 4.1% next month.
At the same time, the creator of the Sahm rule also said that the indicator is only heading towards a recession, but the United States has not yet experienced a recession.
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI released yesterday also seems to indicate that the US service industry is still growing, and the service industry accounts for 70% of GDP.

So I still maintain my judgment that the US economy will not be too good this year, but it will not be too bad either.

Once again, it failed to break through and returned to the channel. I really don’t know how long it will last.
Yesterday, I took profit on a long order and opened a new short order.
Will it fall directly next, or is there a new high? To be honest, I don’t know.
If it continues to go up, long orders will continue to take profit in batches, and short orders will stop loss;
If it starts to go down, short orders will make profits and long orders will be safe.

Make your own plan and follow the market DYOR
#BTC #ETH #SOL

1/ The S&P fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq fell 2%, and the Russell rose 3.47%. The profit-taking of big tech stocks and the rotation of sectors continued.
The view is maintained. From the current point of view, it cannot be said that it is the beginning of a collapse, but it is still a normal correction.
This week's major events:
Macro: Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting; Friday's major non-farm report
Earnings report release: Microsoft, META, AAPL, Amazon, the focus is still on AI, but the focus has become "when to realize" and "expected investment and return"

2/ Last week, both the US second quarter GDP (2.8%, far exceeding expectations) and the June core PCE (in line with expectations) supported the expectation of a September rate cut, and even the probability of a 75 basis point rate cut before the end of the year has increased to 60%.
The market has also begun to hype that every subsequent interest rate meeting will cut interest rates, and the premise is definitely a sudden weakening of the economy or a sudden increase in unemployment, but there is no sign of this at present. Therefore, the consensus of the September rate cut is the best result.

3/ Last week, we mentioned that #BTC may encounter resistance at the upper edge of the channel, but if the callback does not break 63500, it is still expected to continue to rise.

Last week, the lowest price just rebounded to around 63500 and began to rebound. It has now stood on the upper edge of the channel and touched the VAH of the overall channel consolidation area.
If the closing price is still stable above tomorrow, the parallel top of 72000 and the previous high of 74000 will be reached with a high probability.

4/ I wonder if it will successfully break through this time? If it continues to stand above the channel, the bull flag that I have been thinking about for a long time may really come true, and the imagination space will open up at once.

I don’t know yet. I want to see more, but I dare not see too much. Continue to take profits in batches upwards, and you may sell them at a high price, but this is discipline and you have to abide by it. If you ride a roller coaster every day, your money will not be in your pocket.

August 4 is the new moon, which has been quite accurate in the past few months. I wonder what will happen this time?

1/ Did the US stock market fall sharply because of the financial reports of Google and Tesla?

Let me summarize their financial reports in one sentence:
Google: The financial report is good, and the revenue is good, but people are beginning to question whether it can have such revenue without AI? Even investing in AI has increased expenditure?

Tesla: The fundamentals are still not good, and the profit margin has not improved. It just depends on Ma's mouth. The pie is getting bigger and bigger, and the hanging is getting farther and farther.

There is nothing particularly unexpected.

2/ So the fundamental reason is still the profit-taking due to the rise, and the accelerated sector rotation after the expectation of interest rate cuts.

The US stock market is not too worried about its collapse, unless the financial reports of major technology stocks are all thundering, otherwise it has strong fundamentals and performance support, and there is an economy that is neither good nor bad, plus interest rate cuts, so it will not collapse at this time.

I am worried that it will rise again after a correction of less than 10%, and I can't find a low point to increase my position.

1/ n S&P fell nearly 2%, while Russell rose 1.68%, and sector rotation continued. In addition to the rate cut trade, Trump trade returned to the stage (potential negatives: further restrictions on chip exports, intensified Sino-US trade frictions, etc.), the pullback of chip stocks and concerns about the unstable political situation, the US stock market fell under pressure

This week's major events:
Thursday US second quarter GDP; Friday US June core PCE;
Biden withdrew from the election; the Federal Reserve entered a silent period

2/n #BTC Ignored the US stock market last week and finally ushered in a relatively smooth rise. The weekly line closed above 68,000 and came to the upper edge of the channel. It may be temporarily blocked. If the pullback does not break 63,500, it is still expected to continue to rise.

This was edited in the morning. It has already fallen below the upper edge of the channel. If you miss the opportunity to go short at the upper edge of the channel, you can try to go short when it falls below 67,000 and does not pull back.

n/n #BTC If you don't try to go short, you can wait patiently to see if you can get support and rebound at 66250 (small support) and 63500 (big support). These are not only technical support levels, but also the cost level of new accumulation of chips.

Of course, shorting does not mean that we are bearish on the market from now on. It's just that it has risen for two consecutive weeks and has come to the upper edge of the channel and has a false breakthrough. As a rule, we will still choose to go short. If we lose money, forget it. DYOR

After the release of CPI last week, the US stock market fell, and the cryptocurrency market also fell. The market sentiment was pessimistic, but I was still relatively optimistic.
And I think it is safer to take more when the price falls back. If you are afraid that the price will not fall back deeply and you cannot take the grid, even if the price does not rise immediately, the market will keep grinding and you can still make profits.

I think so and do so. Several low-level grids have made good profits.

It may not be reversed next, but it is still worthwhile to use a small stop loss to bet on big expectations.

So what will happen next?
#BTC Stimulated by the event, it went stronger than expected.
Let's see if the small high point of 63,800 ahead can be captured. If it can, 67,000 is expected.
Only when it stands above 67,000 can it be regarded as a reversal, otherwise it will still rebound.
But it doesn't matter if it rebounds, just don't break the channel, continue to shake in the channel for two more months, and it won't be too late to rebound in September.

There is a tiger in your heart, and you can smell the roses (not used in this way, but it's not bad)

3/ Although the S&P is still strong, there is a risk of divergence, and the concentration of the rise is high. If the gains of large technology stocks are difficult to continue, there is a risk of a correction.
However, from the past, its divergence can be so strong that it will start to pull back after multiple divergences.
In the election year, there is no need to look at a big correction. A 5-8% correction is already very good.
It's just that if even the US stock market pulls back, the currency will be even worse.

4/ #BTC There was a small crash on Friday, which may be related to the political turmoil in France. The support of MA120 was tested. The current support is effective, and the last round was supported and rebounded above this moving average.
If you still want to hold on this time, you need to quickly recover above POC-67000. If the consolidation is too long, it will still exhaust downward. The support of 64800 and 62600 is still needed.
I don't know when it will leave this shock channel. Bottom-fishing in batches downward and stop profit in batches upward. Survive first

1/ The US stock market seems to be quite different from the trend of the currency recently. The S&P is on the road to new highs, but #BTC continues to fall.
It is easy to understand. After all, in addition to the same hype about the expectation of interest rate cuts, the US stock market also has fundamentals and real corporate profits. A press conference today and a large order tomorrow can support the stock price. The top three US stock giants (Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia) account for more than 20% of the total market value of the S&P.

2/ Any of the three giants can protect the index, so it is not difficult to understand why the S&P and Nasdaq are so strong.
On the other hand, the Dow Jones is much weaker and has been falling and sideways for a long time, while the Russell 2000 is even uglier. It has not set new highs and has been falling.
The trend of #BTC is actually closer to IWM, which is why it was said before that it is like small and medium-sized stocks, and is also waiting for the spring of interest rate cuts.

1/ The answer is out. It seems that the demand for ETFs has fallen and then adjusted again. ETFs have also ended their 19-day net inflow and started net outflows again.
Of course, other news also continue to have an impact on #BTC , such as the non-agricultural data that exploded and the GameStop crash on Friday night.
Tonight, there will be CPI at 8:30 and the June Fed interest rate decision at 2 a.m.
If CPI falls as expected, it will drive a rebound in the market. If it unexpectedly exceeds expectations, it will be a big loss.

2/ What is more important is the June Fed interest rate decision. In addition to announcing the result of maintaining the interest rate unchanged, which everyone on earth knows, there is also a dot plot. This helps us understand how many times the interest rate will be cut this year.

The current market expectation is to cut the interest rate 1.5 times, so:
- If the dot plot shows that the interest rate will be cut once this year, it is bad news;
- If the dot plot shows that the interest rate will be cut twice this year, it is more relaxed than the market expected and is considered a positive.

The gunshot of interest rate cuts was fired this week
Canada is dovish in cutting interest rates, because not only did it cut interest rates this time, but it also made it clear that further interest rate cuts can be expected
The ECB is hawkish in cutting interest rates, because although it cut interest rates this time, it ruled out the possibility of a second interest rate cut in July and raised inflation expectations #BTC

ETFs have had net inflows for 18 consecutive days, but after hitting the second highest inflow in history, the net inflows in the past two days have been halved and halved again. Will it leave after setting a new high this time, or will it fall back as demand falls like last time?