Is there a correlation between Fed interest rates and Bitcoin prices?

The interest rate cut is coming. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Or is the higher liquidity brought by the interest rate cut actually good for the price of Bitcoin? See what intuitive feelings you can find from historical data?

We captured the U.S. dollar interest rate and Bitcoin price curve from 2010 to 2024, and looked at the trend change of Bitcoin price after each interest rate change point.

We can see:

1. 2016-2018: The Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates from 0.5% to 2.25%. During this period, BTC price also experienced significant gains, rising from $500 to nearly $17,000. This shows that at this stage, BTC prices are surging despite rising interest rates.

2. From 2018 to 2019, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates, and the price of Bitcoin fell from a high of 17,000 to around US$3,400. During this period, the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates, and the price of Bitcoin rebounded, returning from US$3,400 to around 11,000.

3. 2019-early 2020: The Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, from 2.25% to 0.25%. BTC prices fluctuated and fell back during this period.

4. From March 2020 to February 2022, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 0.25%, and the price of Bitcoin rose from around 8,000 to around 61,000;

5. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate hike cycle again. The price of Bitcoin fell from a high to around 16,000 in the early stage of the interest rate hike cycle, and then rose to around 71,000.

To summarize past data:
The first interest rate hike cycle: BTC first rose and then fell;
The first interest rate cut cycle: BTC goes sideways
The second interest rate hike cycle: BTC fell first and then rose
During both periods when interest rates remain unchanged, BTC will rise;

If nothing unexpected happens, the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates in September this year. What do you think the trend of Bitcoin will be like? Fall first and then rise? Or pull up after going sideways?

$BTC

A friend who has passively dealt with all the major exchanges told me privately that Binance is really the best exchange, no doubt about it.

In the short term, there are only so many narratives and circles in this industry, just like if you stare at something too closely for too long, no matter how beautiful it is, you will get bored. This is why many people don't understand why the mistress is worse than the real wife, and why a man with a beautiful wife still goes out to mess around, but they just can't figure it out.

This morning, I was honored to have an hour-long phone call with an industry OG who started mining BTC in 2012. I am still excited about what this industry can do. Blockchain and encryption technology still have great potential for reducing transaction costs, promoting globalization, promoting equality, and reconstructing the financial order.

@heyibinance has always maintained an open attitude, looking at and responding to the voice of the community, which is an important magic weapon for continuous improvement.

If we disagree, you may be right - of course, you may be wrong.

The market is still very weak, suitable for travel, light position and wait for the decline
#BTC☀ #BTC走势预测

BTC/USDT

1. Price fluctuation: The current price is 58,076.95 USDT, and the recent price fluctuates between 57,777 and 59,244, showing a certain volatility.
2. Moving average analysis:
- Short-term moving average (EMA 7): 59,565.50
- Medium-term moving average (EMA 25): 60,445.47
- Long-term moving average (EMA 99): 61,896.57

The short-term moving average is lower than the medium-term and long-term moving averages, indicating that there may be downward pressure in the short term.

Future trend forecast

Based on the trend analysis of moving averages:

- Short-term trend: The 10-day moving average (MA_10) is lower than the 25-day moving average (MA_25), indicating that there may be a downward trend in the short term.

- Long-term trend: If the 10-day moving average continues to cross the 25-day moving average, a new upward trend may form.

Trading strategy recommendations

Short-term strategy:
- If the 10-day moving average continues to be lower than the 25-day moving average, it is recommended to remain cautious and may consider short-term selling or waiting.
- Pay attention to whether the price breaks through key support levels (such as 56,282.39). If it breaks, it may fall further.
- If the 10-day moving average rebounds and crosses the 25-day moving average, it may be a buy signal, and you can consider gradually building a position.
- Set a stop loss to prevent unexpected losses.
- Adjust positions according to market fluctuations and avoid excessive leverage.

#BTC

On the gap in news quality

According to the doge designer account, TG CEO Pavel Durov has been released.
The news is unconfirmed
#TON #Dogs

DOGS surged against the market trend

@Tinkle monitored a large number of large investors buying

Funds are still the main short-term factor driving prices

$dogs #dogs

Binance has suspended deposits and withdrawals of the TON chain. DOGS spot and contract prices will be the same at 20:00 p.m.

Let's predict the opening trend of the evening #DOGS
$TON

$BNB The four-hour line is blocked
$BTC Daily trend remains unchanged, short-term correction

Good Monday morning. Bitcoin just hit 65,000!

This is a picture that perfectly fits the Bitcoin price using a mathematical power law formula. In the past three cycles, the Bitcoin price started from the bottom and followed the power law trend, showing significant regularity.

Usually at the beginning of a bull market, Bitcoin prices break away from the power law and the price increases exponentially, forming a pulse-like pattern. Typically after a year, the price peaks and then the price corrects itself.

When prices fall, it reverts back to its original power law trend, as if the bubble didn't exist.

In other words, the overall effect of the exponential rise and fall is to return to a power law.
In other words, the overall effect of the exponential rise and fall is to return to a power law.

🇬🇧UK mass arrests citizens over MEME
🇫🇷France arrests Telegram founder
🇮🇪Ireland tries to ban "bad memes"
🇧🇷Brazil forces 𝕏 to flee the country
🇦🇺Australia tries to censor 𝕏 posts
🇪🇺EU tries to blackmail Elon Musk
🇺🇸US Department of Justice jails someone over MEME
🇻🇪Maduro blocks all access 𝕏

The same vajra as Musk's,
The vajra symbolizes indestructible wisdom and power,
Offering the vajra can destroy obstacles and troubles

The troubles of those who see it disappear, and the holdings soar

The development of the cryptocurrency industry is represented by three letters: BOD
Binance Oriented Development
Binance Oriented Development

Whether it is a meaningless traffic-attracting new traffic project
or a project with various value innovations
#BNB金鏟子

Binance Launches 57th Newcoin Mining Project, Use #BNB, FDUSD to Mine Dogs (DOGS) #新币挖矿DOGS

Lian Ge YYDS, #BNB has been performing very well recently, and I followed @链研社lianyanshe to make money.

Some traders bought in to celebrate the fact that CZ will be released on September 20, and BnB will rise to celebrate 🍾, which is also quite romantic.

I recently talked to a friend whose coins were stolen by North Korean hackers. He said that after this theft, he deeply realized that Binance is the top exchange and there are almost no competitors.

On the day of the theft, Binance's senior security executive clearly pointed to the direction of North Korean hackers. Whether in terms of technical strength or sensitivity to fund monitoring and compliance, they are top-notch. Other exchanges are far behind.

#BNB to 🌙

59% of people think that there is still hope for the BTC ecosystem
27% of people think that the BTC ecosystem has ended
#BTC☀

11.5% is so big
0-1000u 10.5%
This thing is considered advertising fraud

Unconfirmed news-The market is rumored that Trump will announce at the BTC conference that BTC will be used as a strategic reserve asset for the United States. #btc

The rune REAL•EPIC•RUNE of Bitcoin's fourth halving block has been completely destroyed

According to the official 4XEPIC tweet, some tokens of the EPICX4 rune were damaged before the airdrop, so the rune REAL•EPIC•RUNE was minted as a backup and a solution to get back the damaged $EPIC tokens;

After collective efforts, the damaged proportion of 4xepic has been completely recovered, and the airdrop has been completed, so after voting, REAL•EPIC•RUNE was destroyed according to the latest burn function of Ordinals.

This may be the first rune to be destroyed in the entire collection.