北幣逗狗

After gradually liquidating Bitcoin before the end of October, I started planning future directions these days.
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Last month, I also had my family liquidate both Taiwan and U.S. stocks.
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Although my family is not interested in investing in Bitcoin, they will at least fully follow the stock actions.
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For the cryptocurrency market, the bear market is often the real stage for accumulating wealth.
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The bull market can actually lead to losses, like last month when I took a hit due to a black swan event.
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From now on, I will maintain a rhythm of withdrawals every day, and by the end of the year, I might buy some Japanese yen.
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Leaving a small position to continuously stay in the crypto space looking for opportunities.
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Many people have a blind spot, thinking that the bear market means no money can be made,
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but in the crypto space, it’s actually the best time for airdrops and engaging with projects.
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I also gained more confidence in Solana because I participated in Jupiter in 2022 and 2023,
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which is why I dared to increase my positions at that time.
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During the process of participation, you will gradually become more sensitive,
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as long as the projects after the bear market are still alive, you will know which coins can be stashed for the future.
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If you don't have that much time to keep up with the rhythm of the crypto market, the most brainless approach is:
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1. Take advantage of this year to make good money, and don't act just yet.
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2. Wait for a major bottom next year to go all in on Bitcoin.
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3. Set aside some living expenses each month, and continue to DCA Bitcoin with the rest.
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The process in between can be quite boring; if you want to feel involved,
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then when the news starts reporting about a surge, reduce your holdings a bit,
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and when the news starts reporting about a crash, buy a little back.
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Finally, at the end of the 2029 cycle, cash out completely.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Bitcoin has rebounded to 74k again, how will I look at it next?

A few days after the PCE data was released,

although the data looks good, I observed that the US stock market and gold both weakened at the same time,

but Bitcoin did not fall,

and for most of the time, the US dollar index has a negative correlation with Bitcoin,

this time the US dollar index is rising, but Bitcoin is not following the decline,

at this point, I believe there is a high probability that it will be another rebound, but after a general upward trend, it will still go down.

At this time, I shared in the group that I re-entered the spot market, with the entry position at 69k.

But after the rise, I must run away again; after the rebound, I still need to sell.

This rebound's limit is expected to be around 78k,

the estimated time is after the 3/17 FOMC meeting, in these few days there will definitely be fluctuations,

and since the US-Iran war, too many people have shorted Bitcoin, the open interest is rebounding in the short term, and the funding rate has been negative for a while, I believe that short positions are piling up.

The market goes against human nature,

before the FOMC, the US stock market and precious metals market are reducing leverage,

but Bitcoin is flying high against the wind again.

After this wave of rise, I estimate that the market makers will again lure many people from the crypto space to enter,

the market makers create a false impression of a bull return,

after tricking everyone onto the bus, there will be another wave of new declines.

The overall trend is still bearish,

and I believe it is not yet the right time to accumulate large positions for bottom-fishing.
$ETH $PAXG $XAU

In early March, there was significant volatility, and we can see funds slowly flowing out of technology stocks.

The market is starting to head towards 'uncertainty'.

This month, after the CPI announcement, although inflation remains unchanged,

the market rebound still seems very limited.

The highlight of this month should be the FOMC meeting on the 17th,

Polymarket currently expects the meeting on 3/17 to be:

'99% no rate cut'

The accuracy of market predictions is still very valuable for reference,

If the Fed does not cut interest rates, then the volatility of technology stocks this month will be greater.

From January speculating on memory and gold and silver, to March speculating on oil,

there is a trend of large capital flowing towards commodities.

Think about it, after being bearish on Bitcoin since the end of October,

most people only truly realized it was a bear market in early February.

The capital rotation in the stock market will be a bit slower than in the crypto circle,

perhaps in a month or two, the market will provide the best answer.
$BTC $XAU $XAG

Why did gold not increase in price this time due to the Iran war?

In the past, everyone bought gold because of 'safe-haven demand',

but this time, there was not only no safe haven,

from the day the war broke out, it immediately jumped from 5100 to 5600, then fell back to 5100.

The impact of this wave of war on gold is actually not as significant as many imagined.

In the past, retail investors bought gold mainly due to wars,

such as the potential cross-strait conflict, which is also a reason many retail investors started hoarding gold.

However, from the magnitude of this rise and fall, it can be seen that it is definitely not something ordinary retail investors can control.

The reason lies in the recent surge in gold prices,

which is directly related to central banks and institutions buying gold.

But they are not buying gold for war safe haven,

but rather to hedge against the US dollar.

For large funds, the best response to 'inflation' + 'currency depreciation' is still gold in mainstream thinking.

The reason for hoarding gold is actually bearish on fiat currency,

and the weight of the war's impact on gold is not high,

this is also why after the recent surge in oil prices, if future inflation rises,

the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates will decline,

leading to a simultaneous drop in all asset prices.

Gold still held above 5100 this time,

but because of this wave of oil, the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan seem much weaker.
$BTC $XAU $XAG

Due to the Iranian war, oil prices have fluctuated significantly.

This year has truly been very special,

the fluctuations in gold and silver have already been substantial, and now it's oil's turn.

If oil prices continue to remain high, inflation will rise again,

which will only be more unfavorable for the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Thus, multiple countries are already releasing their oil reserves, and prices are dropping immediately.

Every time an oil crisis occurs, humanity will find a way out.

Oil demand will only continue to decrease,

and the impacts caused by oil will only become smaller in the future,

In the short term, I do not believe this wave will lead to a significant crash in the stock market,

but we can see from this war that the US stock market is also experiencing significant volatility,

the market reacts excessively to any slight movements in price.

From my own experience,

I still feel that the risk in tech stocks is currently very high,

and the only stocks I hold are military and mining stocks.

I personally choose to pass on oil and do not engage in any operations related to it,

most of my focus is still on gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

After Bitcoin rebounded to over 72k, I liquidated my positions again.

The bear market has many opportunities for waves, allowing money to move back and forth, enhancing capital efficiency.

Recently, I've also enjoyed this long trend rhythm,

besides finding it more comfortable to share, I believe it suits most people.

Moreover, I originally relied on investment for profit,

thus I will continue to share this investment record.

This time, the profit from Bitcoin spot trading went into increasing my position in the US stock COPX,

which I mentioned in previous articles,

the current allocation will mainly focus on "precious metals, defense stocks, and mining stocks",

precious metals already include gold and some silver,

but purely buying copper, I believe, carries high risks of holding too many metals.

Additionally, the mining costs are fixed,

if metal prices rise, profits grow exponentially,

so buying a bit of mining stocks has quite high potential profits.

However, gold still occupies the main position,

after all, buying gold is purely to hedge against future currency devaluation risks,

the extent of each pullback is getting smaller, and prices are rising higher.

If the price reaches above 6 thousand, I will consider gradually reducing my positions.

If gold also smoothly trades in waves,

I will start bottom fishing some MSTR, and any changes in positions will be shared in posts. $BTC $XAU $XAU

Bitcoin has surged above 72k, successfully exiting again in another wave.

At the beginning of last month, there was a panic sell-off,

I believe it was another opportunity to trade Bitcoin spot in waves.

This is the fourth wave in recent months,

The drop last month was too rapid, coupled with the judgment of Li Hua's stop-loss, the market has a high probability of temporarily stabilizing after the drop.

From the perspective of the market makers, they can't let the bears feel too comfortable all the time.

Although Bitcoin has been hovering above 60k,

the Strategy violently rebounded to 135 after the spike at 100,

this buying power cannot be from retail investors, indicating that institutions are also starting to position in MSTR,

the Strategy continues to take more money to increase its position in Bitcoin, so the price temporarily stabilizes.

Now that it has successfully risen above 72k, I choose to clear out my Bitcoin once again.

After all the highly leveraged short positions are wiped out,

there will be a smooth decline next time, looking forward to the next wave.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Recalling the big drop during last year's trade war, many people were trying to buy the dip.

Although I mainly share content about the cryptocurrency market, there were many more readers from the US stock market at this time last year.

Regarding the entry and exit of the stock market, I heavily invested in April and liquidated my positions at the end of October.

My trading strategy is to buy during significant declines,

and when I liquidated my positions in US stocks at the end of October, the tech stocks happened to be sold off at their peak.

Looking back now, it seems quite good,

the only downside is the Taiwan stock market, which unexpectedly rose for a few more months.

Now I finally have the opportunity to wait for the next buying opportunity.

The market makers create a trap to pump up the prices,

and then they will create a new panic.

Now it is gradually transitioning from 1 to 2.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

For beginners in the stock market, just having opened a securities account and talking about 0050 every day is actually quite out of place.

Holding an index for the long term is like losing weight,

Everyone understands the reasoning; controlling diet and exercising well can help with weight loss.

But not everyone can achieve a good physique.

Seeing that someone recently entered the stock market and borrowed to invest in 0050,

And retail investors starting to fear missing out on buying TSMC,

Just shows how high the risks in the stock market are right now,

Although long-term investment in index 0050 is not wrong, TSMC is also fine.

But when beginners talk about long-term indexes,

Veteran investors must be silently observing, too lazy to say too much.

It's not that the old hands want to show off, it's just that you know, I know, even the neighbor's aunt knows that buying indexes long-term can earn profits.

But the biggest issue isn't the index; it's actually the people.

As long as there are people, there will be issues with mental challenges that affect emotions and mindset.

Many people, when they first start investing, also say they want to invest long-term,

Claiming they'll definitely win in five or ten years,

But once they encounter a significant drop, they can't help but sell off.

If you really meet a big drop, will you still be emotionally stable and add to your position?

If the stocks you are optimistic about plummet, won't you really consider trying to invest actively?

The world of investing is essentially a constant battle against our human nature,

Everyone has different weaknesses.

Stepping on various landmines, consistently losing money, the old hands,

Later transitioning to full passive investment, I think that's the only way to truly hold on.

Just like in the crypto world, even dogs know that going all in on Bitcoin is a sure win,

But the problem is that beginners will always seek excess returns,

Who hasn't started with a handful of altcoins?

Old hands slowly adjust until their main position is Bitcoin,

It's only through losses that they come to understand.

The process of investing is somewhat similar to

"Seeing the mountain as a mountain, seeing the mountain as not a mountain, seeing the mountain as still a mountain."

It's rare for beginners to buy large-cap indexes or have a full hand of Bitcoin,

And then not be swayed by external temptations; such people are few and far between.
$BTC $NVDAon $XAU

Since the clearance at the end of last October, the US stock market has finally experienced a significant downturn.

Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea's stocks have also begun to adjust,

Cash on hand can never be fully invested; I am just waiting for a big opportunity.

Oil continues to rise, inflation has increased, and it will be more difficult to lower interest rates.

As mentioned yesterday, the US dollar index keeps rising, and US Treasury yields are increasing.

It is normal for the liquidity of all assets to shrink.

Iran is going crazy with indiscriminate attacks, and the UK, France, and Germany have announced their participation in the war; an arms race is about to begin.

It seems that the war will continue for a while in the short term.

Gold and silver still have a bullish outlook,

Global geopolitical risks are very high, and my investment portfolio remains in precious metals and defense stocks.

As mentioned before,

It is impossible for the market to keep rallying until the midterm elections under Trump; there isn’t enough money in the market to keep rising,

There will definitely be a significant drop in between, and then the market will rally again to create new miracles,

This is in line with Trump's style.

In addition to having already positioned in defense stocks, I have been looking for opportunities to enter mining stocks

Gold, silver, and copper mining; in the end, I bought a little copper mining stock COPX,

Since I already have positions in gold and silver, I just allocated a bit to copper.

Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea's stocks are highly dependent on exports,

If the war lasts too long, the impact will be greater than that on the US stock market,

So for now, I will remain cautious,

Gold can ride roller coasters now, and Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea swinging back and forth is just a small case.

If a panic of the same level as last year's tariff war occurs this month,

It is very likely to be the biggest opportunity in 2026.
$BTC $PAXG $XAU

Gold and silver suddenly plunged, is this wave of gains about to end?

Since Qassem Soleimani was assassinated by the United States, prices have been stuck in a sideways trend,

After the U.S. stock market opened, gold even fell to 5200 at one point, and silver dropped below the 9 range.

Gold now starts to pull back after each rise, with prices getting higher and higher, so there's no need to scare oneself.

First, my viewpoint is that this plunge is reasonable.

Because the war in Iran is still ongoing, oil prices will only continue to rise,

Oil prices drive inflation up, and it’s normal for the market to lower expectations for interest rate cuts.

It's like everyone is betting on future "inflation."

Silver is in a rather awkward position, as it is in delivery during March, so the volatility will be relatively high.

However, the difficulty for gold to return to the 4000 range is quite high,

Many central banks are still buying gold,

And if the Iranian war doesn't end in the short term,

Then I believe gold is still a very good risk hedge,

Recently, gold paired with defense stocks still counts as the version answer,

I will update the entire outlook for March and my thoughts on mining.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

With so many defense stocks, what suitable options are there for beginners who are just starting?

Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war,

some people have started to pay attention to the military-industrial sector, especially as Japan has also continued to expand its armed forces recently.

In addition to the ever-increasing military expenditures of the U.S. and Japan, defense stocks have also been hitting new highs.

Due to the unstable geopolitical situation, many people heavily invested in technology stocks will also allocate some defense stocks as a hedge.

However, the military industry is actually divided into many fields,

for beginners, directly buying military ETFs is the fastest option.

The most typical ones are "ITA, PPA, XAR",

PPA mainly focuses on large defense stocks, and I particularly like RTX and LMT, as these two components account for the highest proportion.

ITA is a bit more diversified and also involves some aerospace sectors.

XAR is even more diversified than ITA, with fewer leading defense stocks and more mid and small-cap stocks.

Since I originally focused on defense stocks, I didn't plan to diversify,

if I want to diversify, it's better to just buy the index,

so I think PPA might be more suitable for me.

Leading stocks RTX and LMT have been quite popular recently, and those who buy them are essentially betting on this year's shift in military preparations.

Individual stock returns are high and fluctuate greatly,

for beginners, military ETFs are the entry-level option.
$BTC $ETH $BNB

Bitcoin suddenly surged to 69K and decoupled from the US stock market.

The liquidity in the crypto market is very poor recently,

sometimes the logic even needs to go in the opposite direction,

especially since the war in Iran is still ongoing, risk assets are instead surging high,

it looks very strange, but it is actually easy to understand.

The current crypto market is a game controlled by big players,

after many market makers were physically eliminated last year,

now both the rallies and crashes are by the same group of people.

In the past few weeks, there has been a recovery in rhythm, I have traded spot a few times, the second chart shows my trading traces.

There are still some rebound opportunities to seize in a bear market,

but I have become much more conservative compared to the past, I don't want a heavy position.

At the beginning of February, I picked up 5%, and I'm still waiting to sell during the rebound.

Current global situation:

1. Technology stocks continue to decline slowly, like a frog being boiled in warm water.

2. Gold and silver are very volatile, with silver even being toyed with like a street dog.

3. The funds from technology stocks are flowing into defense stocks, mining, and energy.

4. Bitcoin is very volatile, and with the USD index rising, there is still such a large rebound.

This rebound looks for opportunities to reach above 72K, and when it does, I will exit as well.

Accumulated assets from a few wave trades,

are all for ambushing a big wave at the bottom of the bear market.
$BTC $ETH $BNB

US technology stocks plummeted immediately after the opening, and gold and silver also retraced.

Focusing on Bitcoin, it instead surged by 2,000 points back to 67K.

The market has returned to a super unstable state,

The collective drop in US stocks is likely due to institutions closing long futures positions.

Gold and silver have risen too much in the past few days,

A slight retracement is quite normal in my opinion.

The Iran war is not over yet, and geopolitical tensions are still ongoing,

At the same time, I noticed a slight rebound in the US dollar index,

Some funds have flowed back into the dollar.

The ten-year Treasury bond also pulled back to 4%. If it stays above 4%,

it would be quite unfavorable for technology stocks.

Next, I will continue to monitor the US dollar index,

Additionally, it's not surprising that,

US military and defense stocks are rising simultaneously, indicating that funds from technology stocks are slowly shifting to more defensive assets.

I still believe that the energy sector, mining, and defense stocks,

may become mainstream in the coming months,

and I will continue to keep an eye on them.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

After the war broke out, the topic of defense concept stocks has been brought back to the table.

Below, I will整理 a lazy package of defense concept stocks.

In addition to the US-Iran war,

Japan has significantly increased its defense budget, and many Japanese investors are using NISA accounts to invest in military stocks,

With technology stocks currently not yielding much,

Defense, energy industries, and mining stocks have now become the trio.

At the beginning of the month, I positioned myself in the US market's PPA ETF,

The military industry involves a lot of things,

I personally tend to be more conservative, buying a basket of stocks in an ETF to simplify things.

If we talk about individual stocks, the return rate is generally higher, but the risks are also greater.

This depends on personal choice,

The industries involved in defense stocks are actually quite complex, such as AI, drones, aerospace, and potentially robots in the future, etc.,

Here are a few to pay attention to:

1. RTX Raytheon, mainly a missile manufacturing company.

2. LMT Lockheed Martin, the main business is manufacturing fighter jets, missiles, etc.

The representative fighter jet is the F-35 fighter jet.

3. GE General Electric Aerospace, primarily makes engines for aircraft and fighter jets,

It almost monopolizes the aircraft engine market, and aircraft maintenance is very profitable.

4. Kratos Defense and Security Solutions, mainly focuses on low-cost drones.

New companies exhibit significant volatility, high returns come with high risks.

This year is a year of geopolitical instability,

I will choose to hold gold and silver + defense stocks, and continue writing tomorrow.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

This month's review reminds me of the major drop in gold and silver at the end of January.

Many people said retail investors were preparing to be trapped for another decade.

Returning to the core of 2026:
"U.S.-Japan debt crisis + unstable currency credit + war risk"

Currently, large funds are gradually withdrawing from tech stocks,

Institutions in stocks are moving towards energy stocks and infrastructure stocks,

Otherwise, they are seeking refuge in commodities.

February has indeed been quite torturous, with many retail investors being washed out.

Just as the leverage from chasing highs was cleared,

At the end of February, the big players returned to pump the market again.

March continues to wait for takeoff; I believe gold and silver are still worth buying!
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

After the U.S. bombed Iran, gold and silver began to surge!

Earlier this month, I mentioned that the situation has been unstable since the start of this year,

I personally believe the chances of conflict are quite high,

So I have been continuously positioning in gold, silver, and defense stocks since the beginning of the month,

Historically, wars have affected all risk assets,

Including the stock market, Bitcoin, and gold all tend to drop,

But this time, the U.S. dollar index is still low,

Indicating that large funds are almost all fleeing to gold rather than cash,

Just think about it, the market makers are really cunning,

They just happen to time it around the silver delivery,

Using war to push the prices up.

Due to the delivery issue, if you are a smart person,

You know that the physical silver in the exchange is insufficient for delivery,

This could pose a risk for the bulls,

Normally, a smart person would choose to stay out or short.

But the market intentionally goes against this, pulling prices up forcefully.

If the physical prices continue to rise,

The delivery volume can be suppressed, while also triggering short squeezes.

Moreover, gold prices fluctuate,

Rising from 5200 to 5600 and then dropping back to 5400,

I personally choose to hold my physical gold and silver!

I will continue to write about the investment plan for March tomorrow.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

The negotiations on nuclear programs between the United States and Iran have broken down, and the situation in the Middle East has escalated again.

The precious metals market has already given us the answer,

Gold has risen back to 5250, and silver has also reached 92.

Since early February, the potential war between the U.S. and Iran has been a topic of concern for me.

I also believe that the war situation this year is unstable,

So the investment focus for the first half of the year is:

Positioning "mainly gold + some silver + some defense stocks"

With 30% cash waiting for adjustments at any time,

Slowly looking for opportunities to position low-value Bitcoin.

In the past, whenever the risk of war increased,

The stock market and the cryptocurrency market would both adjust downward,

This is one of the reasons why I believe the market risk is very high.

Additionally, due to the war, oil prices are also easily pushed higher,

Higher oil prices mean inflation will also be affected.

War will also affect the possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates in the future,

Although not lowering interest rates will also affect the demand for gold,

It is rare that in the past, when global risks increased, the U.S. dollar index would also rise.

Large funds also tend to shift to cash for safety,

So it becomes:

War is bullish for gold, but the dollar is bearish for gold, creating a paradox.

However, since the beginning of the year, large funds have shown low interest in the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen,

Precious metals have become a refuge for large funds this year,

I personally remain optimistic about the development of gold and choose to hold on to it.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

Right now, there is a feeling in Taiwan of money flooding the feet, as people are discussing stocks everywhere they go.

Eating at a buffet, running on the playground, working out at the gym,

even going through airport security, you can hear about TSMC, and occasionally hear about memory chips.

In terms of my own investment strategy,

I like to buy cheap assets all at once at the bottom,

2022 just happened to coincide with the bear market in Taiwan and the U.S. stocks,

At that time, my family didn't dare to buy Bitcoin, so I only pushed for 0050,

and they managed to clear their positions by the end of October last year.

After chatting with a few more experienced individuals,

most of them are either holding cash or have low stock positions, all waiting to buy at the bottom.

At this stage, telling beginners not to chase high prices is actually a bit of a cold shower and not very welcome; they might even get criticized.

But seeing articles about early knowledge of loaning for European printing starting to appear,

or the rags-to-riches stories of new young stock gods,

reminds me of the lessons I often review in my notes:

"Remember to cash out when the gains exceed your expectations"

"Every penny left in a bear market is real money"

Just two simple sentences, filled with my blood and tears.

In the world of capitalism,

bull markets are carefully planned situations created by big money to find buyers.

Great profits are laid out starting from the bear market,

that’s where the real dreams of retail investors lie.

Long-term, I certainly continue to be optimistic about the narrative of AI and TSMC,

but in the short term, I still believe the risks are very high.

Of course, if you plan to invest in indexes for the long term,

then holding on is also fine; just consider it my rambling.
$NVDAon $BTC $XAU