[Market Dynamics] Santander Bank: If August employment data is strong, the Fed may give up the idea of ​​a 50 basis point rate cut

[Market Dynamics]
Data: Stablecoin market grew by $1.3 billion in 5 days, Tether led the gains

Market news: Robert Kennedy Jr. said he would support Donald Trump

Trader T: IBIT net inflow of 1,366 BTC on August 23

Tether: So far this year, it has helped 145 law enforcement agencies recover 108.8 million USDT related to illegal activities

DCG: Bitcoin and Ethereum mini trusts have inflows of more than $270 million and $220 million

Viewpoint: Now may be a good time to build a position in altcoins, and venture capital companies are likely to follow up

Coinbase plans to suspend Polygon PoS transactions and sending and receiving services from August 26 to September 10

OpenAI hires former Meta executives to lead strategic planning

[Market Analysis] Bitcoin has broken through the 60,000 mark for the seventh time since August. I said yesterday that if we give the big inventory time and patience, Q4 will definitely explode. Although the market has not yet confirmed an effective breakthrough, the market's confidence is recovering, as can be seen from the copycats of Binance in the past two days.

The Bitcoin ecosystem has shown signs of recovery with the release of the Fractal network, so you can pay more attention to it.

At the 4-hour level, if it effectively stands near 61,600, it will continue to break upward and test the large resistance level of 70,000.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets are highly volatile and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, avoid full positions, and refuse loan leverage;

Large amounts of tokens unlocked this week:

AVAX - 198.53M
ZKJ - 18.79M
MERL - 8.24M
PIXEL - 7.70M
WLD - 7.52M
ID - 6.64M
MPLX - 5.86M

Fed officials began speaking this week, and there will definitely be some policies and views for the market in these speeches, so the market volatility this week is expected to be more intense:

Wednesday 1:35, 2024 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivered a speech;

Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;

Thursday, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held;

Friday 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting.

How many black swan events have you experienced?

1. The Mentougou incident in February 2014: BTC plummeted by 80%. BTC suffered a sharp drop of 80% in the Mentougou incident in February 2014.

2. The September 4 incident in 2017: the market value plummeted by 80%
On September 4, 2017, due to Chinese regulatory measures, the market value of the entire crypto market evaporated by 80%.

3. The March 12 incident in 2020: ETH fell to $80
On March 12, 2020, the global market plummeted, and the price of ETH plummeted to $80, with heavy losses.

4. The May 19 incident in 2021: 600,000 contracts were liquidated
On May 19, 2021, the market crash caused 600,000 contracts to be forced to close, with huge losses.

5. The Luna incident in 2022: a crisis in the DeFi field
In 2022, the collapse of Luna triggered a major crisis in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi).

6. FTX explosion in 2022: market trust was frustrated
In 2022, FTX's explosion caused the market's trust in cryptocurrencies to be seriously damaged.

7. What black swan events do you think will happen next? #BTC

2024.10.17 Cryptocurrency Circle Events🌍

● Yesterday, GBTC had a net outflow of 72.9 million US dollars, and ETHE had a net outflow of 27.7 million US dollars

● Today's Cryptocurrency Panic and Greed Index is 25 (yesterday was 27)

● Andrew Kang: The market value of altcoins will bottom out around 2025, and the next wave will be driven by AI-related tokens

● Ethereum's key support area is between $2,300 and $2,380, and more than 50 million ETH have been purchased

● A whale withdrew 533.5 BTC from Binance in the past 5 hours, about $31.07 million, with an average price of $58,237

● FTX's account with money should register quickly when it explodes, and the voting for the F claim plan will end at 4 am on August 17

● Sun Yuchen personally stood up for $Sunpump and received full support from HTX (formerly Huobi)
#BTC

4. Regulatory information dynamics:
● In a research report on Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that increasingly stringent stablecoin regulation may pose a major challenge to Tether's market dominance. According to the European Crypto-Asset Markets Act (MiCA), 60% of stablecoin reserves must be deposited in European banks, which may force Tether to adjust its reserve management strategy.
● According to the Hong Kong Ta Kung Pao, Hong Kong is accelerating the establishment of a regulatory system for stablecoin issuers and recently released a public consultation summary on stablecoin regulation. The report pointed out that the focus of the next stage of development of Web3.0 in Hong Kong and even the world is to break the barriers between the virtual world and the real world, so that assets and funds can flow freely between the two systems. And RWA is an important innovation that breaks down technical barriers and accelerates the integration of virtual and real.

8.16 Important Industry Dynamics

1. Mainstream Exchange Dynamics:
● Binance announced that it has successfully registered as a reporting entity with the Indian Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU-IND). This achievement marks Binance's 19th milestone in global regulation.

2. Mainstream Project & Hot Event Dynamics:
● USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC on the Solana chain 15 minutes ago.
● Dogs announced the DOGS token economics, with a total of 550 billion, and 81.5% of the supply belongs to the community.
● According to The Block, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes launched the first NFT collection "Airheads" on Bitcoin Ordinals and has officially opened the whitelist.
● According to The Block, blockchain research and development organization NEBRA is launching Universal Proof Aggregation technology, which allows multiple independent zero-knowledge proofs to be merged into a compact proof to reduce blockchain verification costs.
● Injective announced its official integration with the TON ecosystem. As a result, assets such as INJ can be cross-chain and used between TON, and TON can also be used between dApps in the Injective ecosystem.

3. Financing information dynamics:
● According to The Block, Web3 liquidity provider Orderly Network completed a $5 million strategic financing, with OKX Ventures, Manifold Trading, Presto Labs, LTP, Nomad Capital and Origin Protocol participating.
● Binance's venture capital and incubation department Binance Labs announced an investment in the decentralized AI ecosystem MyShell.
● According to CoinDesk, blockchain risk analysis service provider Chaos Labs completed a $55 million Series A financing, led by Haun Ventures, with F-Prime Capital, Slow Ventures and Spartan Capital, as well as Lightspeed Venture Partners, Galaxy Ventures and PayPal Ventures participating.

8.15 Important Industry Dynamics

Mainstream Exchange Dynamics:
Cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase has now begun to provide crypto services in Hawaii. Local residents can now buy, sell and manage their cryptocurrencies on Coinbase, in addition to using the exchange's asset pledge, international fund remittance and other features.
Binance Launchpool and Super Earn will list Toncoin (TON).
Lista DAO issued a statement that slisBNB assets will support Binance Launchpool and can obtain reward calculations. Hold slisBNB assets in the Web3 MPC wallet to qualify.
Mainstream Project & Hot Event Dynamics:
Aethir Foundation has opened a claim channel for users who hold nodes and stake from the same wallet but did not connect to the user portal before the deadline.
The monthly rate of the US PPI in July was 0.1%, expected to be 0.20%, and the previous value was 0.20%.
According to Arkham data, the weekly fund flow of the spot Ethereum ETF achieved positive growth for the first time, with a net inflow of 31,500 ETH last week, equivalent to about $75.07 million.
Solana meme coin platform Pump.fun's protocol revenue in July reached $28.73 million, a record high.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in an interview that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates as soon as possible as the economy slows and consumers tighten spending.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Musk's team proposed to mobilize 800,000 swing state voters to vote for Trump and provide about $160 million (about RMB 1.15 billion) in financial support.
According to Arkham data, Jump Trading addresses currently hold crypto assets worth $365 million, with stablecoin positions accounting for 70%.
Quantitative trading company Jane Street may be hoarding BTC. Its address has withdrawn a total of 911.19 BTC from Gemini in the past 9 hours, about 54.03 million US dollars, with an average cost of 59,296 US dollars.
Financing information dynamics:
Intention-based encryption infrastructure company Essential completed $11 million Series A financing, led by Archetype.
Tether announced a $3 million strategic investment in remittance and financial management platform Kem.
Regulatory information dynamics:
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) stated in a lawsuit filed on Wednesday that the board and management of the ASX (Australian Stock Exchange) had "collectively failed" in managing the upgrade of its blockchain-based platform.

GM20240814
1) Market trend:
BTC followed the rise of US stocks, and the altcoins generally rose. The bottom altcoins rebounded one after another.
US stocks rose sharply. The US PPI industrial inflation dropped significantly, and the inflation pressure eased.
2) Market hot spots:
1. SATs, RIF, STX, CKB, Runecoin, Pizza and other BTC ecosystems rose. The leader is SATs, the bottom changed, and the market value exceeded Ordi.
2. DeFi's Rune and Banana rose. Rune acquired the Deif public chain Kujira, which is also in the Cosmos ecosystem. Banana burned 2% of the supply.
3. Sun Ge launched the Pump Fun imitation disk, and the PVP of the meme on the chain came to an end.

8.13 Important Industry Dynamics

1. Mainstream Exchange Dynamics: None

2. Mainstream Project & Hot Event Dynamics:
● Three Arrows Capital liquidators are seeking at least $1.3 billion in compensation from TerraForm Labs;
● Prediction market Polymarket cooperates with Perplexity to support the display of event news summaries;
● Solana ecosystem multi-signature management tool Squads launches Squads Policy Network;
● Marathon Digital plans to issue $250 million in convertible senior notes in a private placement;
● Catizen is about to launch the air combat game Star Wing;
● ZachXBT: One of the major WBTC holders is a suspicious entity related to ransomware/pig killing;
● ZK trading platform Vessel mainnet is now online Scroll;
● OKX Web3 wallet upgrades risky transaction interception strategy;

3. Financing Information Dynamics:
● Liquidity protocol Ion Protocol completes $4.8 million in financing, with participation from Gumi Capital Cryptos and others;

4. Regulatory news:
● Trump will sue the U.S. Department of Justice for the Mar-a-Lago raid, seeking $100 million in damages;
● Former U.S. Treasury Secretary: A 50 basis point rate cut in September may be appropriate;

Recent unlocked varieties
ARKM:
Unlocking started on July 18, 498,140 pieces/day, for 1,095 days, a total of 5.45 pieces

WLD:
Unlocking started on July 24, 6.62 million pieces/day, for 730 days

ZETA:
Unlocked on August 1, 53.89 million

XAI:
Unlocked on July 9, 194.8 million pieces

GALA:
Unlocking started on July 21, 2.14 million pieces/day, for 365 days, a total of 781.1 million pieces

APE: Unlocked on July 17, 2024, 15.6 million pieces

Regarding the glorious achievements of those contract masters: Xiaobai only knows that Liang Xi made tens of millions overnight and is regarded as a contract master. But there is more than one Liang Xi who made tens of millions. But for the early people in the currency circle, Liang Xi's grasp of the unilateral market is admirable. Unfortunately, he still failed to become a god due to a warehouse explosion, but he is still a little worse than the real legendary contract master.

Contract Master--Tony: He has quit the network. Don't look for him. If you can't find him, his real body is on X (push). Record: From October 2020 to October 2021, 50,000 yuan made 20 million yuan. Playing method: Tony likes to make profits by compounding small positions. This is equivalent to making money out of nothing, with low risk. But the income is not as exaggerated as the one below, but for us, the rate of return is already quite high.

Contract Master 2--Bit King: This is a real god, a small position contract master, who has completely quit the network and is enjoying life. Record: From 40,000 yuan to 200 million through low-multiple contracts in two years. Playing style: Good at Bitcoin medium and low leverage contracts, compound interest system, only do trend trading with more than 30% volatility and high profit and loss ratio. The trading cycle is long, usually trading once a month. Not good at volatile market, which shows that volatile market is really difficult to do. Most of the profits were made in the bear market of Bitcoin 3,000 dollars.

Awakening moment: From 2015 to 2018, there was no trading experience, losses and gains, laughing and playing. Finally, at the end of 2018, the contract was liquidated for hundreds of thousands. Therefore, I woke up for the first time, took the only 200 dollars left after the liquidation, established a trading system, and half a month later, the contract profit reached 26,000u, and finally returned to zero due to carrying orders, so I finally awakened and realized the ultimate skill: "stop loss".

After reflecting and reviewing for a period of time, I recharged 10,000 yuan again. From then on, I took off!

2024.7.12 Cryptocurrency Circle Events🌍
There is an Easter egg at the end of the article

● On July 11, 9 US Bitcoin spot ETFs increased their holdings by 1,661 BTC.

● JPMorgan Chase changed its Fed rate cut expectations from November to September.

● Justin Sun opened a long position in Bitcoin at $67,000, with a position of $420 million.

● BlackRock plans to apply for SOL ETF in July, and the final deadline for Solana ETF is March 2025.

● DWF Labs becomes a TRU market maker and obtains 7.5 million tokens for loan.

● The giant whale that established a position of 5.11 million ENA in early June bought $8.72 million in altcoins in the past 10 hours, including $1.89 million in PENDLE - $1.76 million in LDO - $4.63 million in BNB.

● JPMorgan Chase: The crypto market is expected to rebound in August.

● With the US presidential election approaching in November, cryptocurrency voters may become a key force in the US election.

● Market news: CZ may be released soon.

● The German government's BTC holdings are only 4,925.

● Starting from July 18, Coinbase International Exchange will support $CRV, $ENS and $PEOPLE perpetual futures.

● $BABYDOGE - Baby Doge announced a $PAWS airdrop for all token holders. The snapshot date will be announced.

● $BOBA - Boba Network will reveal something new soon.

● $FLOKI - Floki will make a marketing announcement on July 17.

● $GNO - Gnosis announced the launch of Shutterized Gnosis Chain.

● $MOCA - According to @definalist, the active token of $MOCA was sent to Upbit's wallet 2 days ago. Upbit continued to list Taiko even after it was leaked the day before.

● $MKR - MakerDAO announced the Spark Tokenization Grand Prix, allocating $1 billion to tokenized real-world assets via SparkFi.

● $SUI - Sui Network announced the launch of @xocietyofficial beta testing on July 15.

● $SSV - SSV Network announced its cluster is live on Lido Finance's simple DVT module on Ethereum mainnet.

● $ZIG - Zignaly launched the $ZIG card powered by Mastercard. Pre-orders for digital and physical cards are coming soon.
#BTC 
Here comes the point. See here. Good trading. Know how to trade. Trade with tradingpal.

Too much anxiety in financial markets:
I am worried about not buying when the price rises.
I’m worried if the price doesn’t go up after I buy it.
If it falls, I will not sell it. I will be anxious.
Sold but not worried about falling.

Anxiety is a physiological need.
Selling anxiety and placating anxiety are two huge businesses.

[Viewpoint] Emotion determines the bottom, funds determine the top

➤Emotion determines the bottom
The German government is still selling BTC, but BTC has not continued to fall like in the past few days.

This confirms the view that has always been held - funds determine the top, emotions determine the bottom.

The German government's sale of BTC is not the bottom, but the emotional effect caused by the German government's sale of BTC has formed the staged bottom of this wave.

Grayscale can't break through the faith,
Mentougou can't break through the faith,
and the German government can't break through the faith...

The market panics and loses faith in the bull market and even in the currency circle. That's when it's the most panic. And the only one who can break this faith is probably the currency circle itself:

At the end of 2018, in order to compete for the name of BCH, two major mining forces smashed the market to compete for computing power... It makes people feel that the so-called blockchain, cryptocurrency, fork... It seems like a farce.

In mid-2022, Luna, which ranks in the top 10 in market value and is invested and endorsed by a large number of institutions, collapsed... It makes people feel that institutions are nothing more than that.

At the end of 2022, FTX, the world's second largest exchange, with a large number of institutional investments and deposits, went bankrupt... It makes people feel that large exchanges are also unreliable.

If funds can't hit the bottom, emotions can.

➤ Funds determine the top
On the contrary, the bull top often appears in a loose monetary environment.

In 2024, BTC broke through the previous high. However, without the favorable macro environment, the market is just like this. On the one hand, the height of BTC is almost the same as the previous high. On the other hand, there is no cottage season.

Emotions can't buy the top, only funds can!

Of course, funds and emotions affect each other, and they cannot be separated and generalized.

There are two conclusions here:

First, the impact of the German government's selling on emotions has basically passed.

Second, the so-called bull market that is separated from the macro-easing environment may only be a small bull, at most a medium bull, and the big bull has not yet come.
​

Yesterday, the 4-hour signal was very obvious. The current trend has reached a regional bottom stage. From yesterday to today, the German government has been selling continuously, but from the market point of view, the market panic has weakened, and the market has not effectively fallen below the support level near 55,000 again.

There are still many expectations at the macro level in the future, such as the approval of the Ethereum ETF, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the coming to power of a political party that is more friendly to encryption, etc., which will further promote the development of the encryption industry.

At the 4-hour level, there are currently two obvious supports, one on July 5 and the other on July 9. There are currently two effective supports at the bottom. If the German government continues to sell this week and cannot break through the previous support position of 53,485, then it will gradually repair from next week, so there is not much time left for the air force. Here I would like to remind the contract players that the market has reached a critical moment of turning again, and they must pay attention to the risk of liquidation.

SOL's activity surges in Q4 Solana's network activity surged in Q2 2024. Transaction fees and revenue grew exponentially, exceeding $26 million, a 42-fold increase year-over-year.

This growth reflects a thriving ecosystem, further evidenced by total SOL transaction volume reaching a staggering $292 billion, nearly 7 times higher than the same period in 2023.

Digging deeper into network metrics, more than 15.3 billion transactions were completed in the second quarter of 2024, including voting and non-voting activities. This represents a significant improvement in overall network utilization.

Additionally, the total value locked in the SOL DeFi protocol soared to $3.4 billion, a tenfold increase year-over-year. This surge demonstrates Solana’s growing popularity among decentralized finance applications.

Solana’s NFT industry has also seen explosive expansion. In the second quarter of 2024, more than 98 million new NFTs were minted, a staggering 54x increase compared to the previous year.

🔥Major US economic reports and Fed speakers this week

Tuesday, July 9🇺🇸
Fed Chairman Powell testifies in the Senate
Wednesday, July 10🇺🇸
Fed Chairman Powell testifies in the House of Representatives
Thursday, July 11🇺🇸
CPI inflation data: estimated 3.1% | last month: 3.3%
Core CPI inflation data: estimated 3.4% | last month: 3.4%
Speech by Luis Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Friday, July 12🇺🇸
PPI inflation data (wholesale inflation)

🔥Major US economic reports and Fed speakers next week

Tuesday, July 9🇺🇸
Fed Chairman Powell testifies in the Senate
Wednesday, July 10🇺🇸
Fed Chairman Powell testifies in the House of Representatives
Thursday, July 11🇺🇸
CPI inflation data: estimated 3.1% | last month: 3.3%
Core CPI inflation data: estimated 3.4% | last month: 3.4%
Speech by Luis Alberto Musallim, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Lucia
Friday, July 12🇺🇸
PPI inflation data (wholesale inflation)

Xiaoxia?

The most hurtful words in this bull market:
1⃣. Copycat season
2⃣. Speculate on new, not old
3⃣. Why are you panicking about spot goods? Hold on
4⃣. All in, the last chance to get on board
5⃣. Feel comfortable
6⃣. The big one is coming