庄哥日记
X:@ETH1132
Occasional Trader
5.3 Years
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The BTC rebound is a high short opportunity
76000 is a strong resistance area
BTC reserves increased from 2.72 million coins in mid-January to 2.75 million coins
Whales continue to transfer to exchanges
The intention to dump is obvious
If it falls below the psychological level of 60,000
It will trigger programmatic trading leverage liquidation and ETF redemption panic
The price may directly drop to 40,000-50,000
US PCE inflation reached 3.0%
Interest rate cut expectations have decreased from 6 times at the beginning of the year to only 1 time
Some institutions even discuss raising interest rates
It is expected that the bear market will hit bottom between June and December
The low point is in the range of 45,000-50,000
#比特币突破7.5万美元
76000 is a strong resistance area
BTC reserves increased from 2.72 million coins in mid-January to 2.75 million coins
Whales continue to transfer to exchanges
The intention to dump is obvious
If it falls below the psychological level of 60,000
It will trigger programmatic trading leverage liquidation and ETF redemption panic
The price may directly drop to 40,000-50,000
US PCE inflation reached 3.0%
Interest rate cut expectations have decreased from 6 times at the beginning of the year to only 1 time
Some institutions even discuss raising interest rates
It is expected that the bear market will hit bottom between June and December
The low point is in the range of 45,000-50,000
#比特币突破7.5万美元
BTC's current status is like a leveraged tech stock, still within a volatile range. If the war doesn't end, any rebound is just a short opportunity; don’t think the bull market is back just because of a rebound.
If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates and the United States sends ground troops into Iran, U.S. Treasury yields will soar, the dollar will weaken, and the U.S. stock market will collapse.
Gold will surge due to the weakening dollar credit, and the price of BTC will also rise with the collapse of the dollar's credibility as it awaits a new cycle.
As the market value of dollar stablecoins is already 310 billion, if the dollar's credibility collapses, referencing the previous bull market when dollar stablecoins were only 130 billion, BTC reached 126,000. Thus, this round of the BTC bull market still has the opportunity to reach 250,000 to 300,000, provided that BTC does not follow the U.S. stock market closely but instead operates in a negatively correlated or independent manner, which would be the time to take off.
#加密市场回调
If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates and the United States sends ground troops into Iran, U.S. Treasury yields will soar, the dollar will weaken, and the U.S. stock market will collapse.
Gold will surge due to the weakening dollar credit, and the price of BTC will also rise with the collapse of the dollar's credibility as it awaits a new cycle.
As the market value of dollar stablecoins is already 310 billion, if the dollar's credibility collapses, referencing the previous bull market when dollar stablecoins were only 130 billion, BTC reached 126,000. Thus, this round of the BTC bull market still has the opportunity to reach 250,000 to 300,000, provided that BTC does not follow the U.S. stock market closely but instead operates in a negatively correlated or independent manner, which would be the time to take off.
#加密市场回调
Khamenei is just a puppet; Iran is essentially controlled by the Revolutionary Guard in terms of economy and military.
Khamenei's death accelerated the rise to power of the younger generation within the Revolutionary Guard, marking the optimal moment for class replacement.
Without Khamenei's constraints, the Middle Eastern wars will truly erupt; this small rebound in Bitcoin is merely a reaction to a slight positive sentiment from a small U.S. strategic victory, likely to lure in some buyers before continuing the downtrend, and the real bottom is still far off.
#伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死
Khamenei's death accelerated the rise to power of the younger generation within the Revolutionary Guard, marking the optimal moment for class replacement.
Without Khamenei's constraints, the Middle Eastern wars will truly erupt; this small rebound in Bitcoin is merely a reaction to a slight positive sentiment from a small U.S. strategic victory, likely to lure in some buyers before continuing the downtrend, and the real bottom is still far off.
#伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死
Do not freeze to death in the last cold winter
When the whole network is shouting 'Bitcoin is dead', it is often the most dangerous and valuable moment in the market.
Do not freeze to death in the last cold night before spring arrives.
Recently, a highly significant piece of data went viral — the search popularity of 'Bitcoin is Dead' on Google Trends officially hit an all-time high, directly surpassing the peaks of the previous bear market in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022, reaching the extreme position of a full score of 100.
Panic, despair, cutting losses, singing bearish to zero... has almost become the main theme of the crypto market. But if you look at historical K-lines and data, you will find an infallible rule: every time 'Bitcoin is dead' trends at its peak, it is the strongest contrarian signal at the end of a bear market and in the bottom area.
Do not freeze to death in the last cold night before spring arrives.
Recently, a highly significant piece of data went viral — the search popularity of 'Bitcoin is Dead' on Google Trends officially hit an all-time high, directly surpassing the peaks of the previous bear market in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022, reaching the extreme position of a full score of 100.
Panic, despair, cutting losses, singing bearish to zero... has almost become the main theme of the crypto market. But if you look at historical K-lines and data, you will find an infallible rule: every time 'Bitcoin is dead' trends at its peak, it is the strongest contrarian signal at the end of a bear market and in the bottom area.
The main factors currently driving the rise of Bitcoin are simply two: the first is the expectation of interest rate cuts being raised to March-April, and the second is the positive advancement of cryptocurrency legislation.
Aside from this, other short-term factors cannot drive the price of BTC to break through the bottom consolidation zone. Of course, while the current bottom consolidation is somewhat annoying in the short term, it is beneficial for the subsequent trend.
Let's adjust the current levels: A, a strong short-term rebound signal; B, defending key positions.
A, as time goes by, 69,000 will become an important hourly strength signal point from this week to next week. Once the price breaks and stabilizes above 69,000, it means the rebound is accelerating. We will see later if it can break and stabilize above 71,000. If that resistance cannot be broken and stabilized, then we don't need to consider it for now and continue to refer to the consolidation.
B, defending key positions, the consolidation range of 62,700 — 71,000 is a relatively healthy range. Once it breaks below support and tests new lows, we need to be alert whether it is a new wave of decline or if it can quickly rebound and stabilize, as the meanings and risks of both are different.
Market data:
Comparing the market data to Tuesday's situation, it can be said to be a mixed bag,
1. After BTC's price fell below 70,000, the overall market sentiment is poor, and risk appetite is low, with BTC's dominance squeezing ETH and altcoins.
2. Trading volume continues to shrink, and the current market's own activity level is low, overly reliant on external macro sentiment.
3. A total net outflow of 200 million in funds, with a total of 3.109 billion, among which USDT decreased by 412 million, USDC increased by 197 million, with different sentiments in the US and Asia.
However, the overall awkward situation is that while USDT is active, it is experiencing a net outflow, indicating a lack of confidence. On the other hand, although USDC has a net outflow, its overall activity level is low and has not had much positive effect on BTC's price.
Subsequently, driving the price up still requires the synchronized net inflow of mainstream funds.
Overall summary:
At the current stage, after the price falls below 69,000, sentiment is poor and still in a consolidation observation period. The market's confidence needs more time to repair and settle. Once the price establishes a bottom in a determined range and off-market funds flow back, it will be the opportunity for a new market trend to start.
Of course, whether it can start depends on the stimulating effect of external macro events, reducing uncertainties, and having more favorable industry news, which is what the current cryptocurrency market needs!
$BTC
$ETH
Aside from this, other short-term factors cannot drive the price of BTC to break through the bottom consolidation zone. Of course, while the current bottom consolidation is somewhat annoying in the short term, it is beneficial for the subsequent trend.
Let's adjust the current levels: A, a strong short-term rebound signal; B, defending key positions.
A, as time goes by, 69,000 will become an important hourly strength signal point from this week to next week. Once the price breaks and stabilizes above 69,000, it means the rebound is accelerating. We will see later if it can break and stabilize above 71,000. If that resistance cannot be broken and stabilized, then we don't need to consider it for now and continue to refer to the consolidation.
B, defending key positions, the consolidation range of 62,700 — 71,000 is a relatively healthy range. Once it breaks below support and tests new lows, we need to be alert whether it is a new wave of decline or if it can quickly rebound and stabilize, as the meanings and risks of both are different.
Market data:
Comparing the market data to Tuesday's situation, it can be said to be a mixed bag,
1. After BTC's price fell below 70,000, the overall market sentiment is poor, and risk appetite is low, with BTC's dominance squeezing ETH and altcoins.
2. Trading volume continues to shrink, and the current market's own activity level is low, overly reliant on external macro sentiment.
3. A total net outflow of 200 million in funds, with a total of 3.109 billion, among which USDT decreased by 412 million, USDC increased by 197 million, with different sentiments in the US and Asia.
However, the overall awkward situation is that while USDT is active, it is experiencing a net outflow, indicating a lack of confidence. On the other hand, although USDC has a net outflow, its overall activity level is low and has not had much positive effect on BTC's price.
Subsequently, driving the price up still requires the synchronized net inflow of mainstream funds.
Overall summary:
At the current stage, after the price falls below 69,000, sentiment is poor and still in a consolidation observation period. The market's confidence needs more time to repair and settle. Once the price establishes a bottom in a determined range and off-market funds flow back, it will be the opportunity for a new market trend to start.
Of course, whether it can start depends on the stimulating effect of external macro events, reducing uncertainties, and having more favorable industry news, which is what the current cryptocurrency market needs!
$BTC
$ETH
Does Ethereum really have no future?
Current doubts about Ethereum: Ethereum is really TMD garbage!!, Ethereum's technology is outdated! Ethereum is a Ponzi scheme! After Ethereum switched to POS*, it became a centralized Ethereum, this is the biggest voice about Ethereum at present!
When the BTC price first touched $73888, the ETH price was $4100;
When the BTC price reached $100000, the ETH price was: $3600;
When the BTC price broke through to $108000, the ETH price was surprisingly: $3300
Bitcoin is $97000, but ETH is only $2700
And now Bitcoin is $120000, ETH is over $4000
When the BTC price first touched $73888, the ETH price was $4100;
When the BTC price reached $100000, the ETH price was: $3600;
When the BTC price broke through to $108000, the ETH price was surprisingly: $3300
Bitcoin is $97000, but ETH is only $2700
And now Bitcoin is $120000, ETH is over $4000
How to evaluate the Bithumb incident where the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange mistakenly sent 620,000 bitcoins? Why did it cause a flash crash in bitcoin prices?
The Bithumb incident where 620,000 bitcoins were mistakenly sent can be considered one of the most outrageous operational errors in the history of the cryptocurrency industry. However, since 2025, similar incidents have occurred several times, each triggering market crashes! For example, in October last year, PayPal mistakenly minted 3 million stablecoins, combined with the decoupling of BNB's third-generation stablecoin, which is likely one of the important reasons the market has been bearish until now.
This actually exposes the internal control loopholes that currently exist in global cryptocurrency exchanges, and it proves the fragility of the market during sudden liquidity changes. After all, few people's beliefs can withstand the storms, especially when it comes to unilateral circular loan leverage!
This actually exposes the internal control loopholes that currently exist in global cryptocurrency exchanges, and it proves the fragility of the market during sudden liquidity changes. After all, few people's beliefs can withstand the storms, especially when it comes to unilateral circular loan leverage!
Eight departments including the central bank jointly issued a document prohibiting virtual currency business activities, clarifying that domestic entities controlled by overseas entities are not allowed to issue tokens abroad. How should this be interpreted?
From the heated discussions surrounding the launch of stablecoins in Hong Kong last year to the international development of RWA businesses, and then to the tightening of regulations at the end of the year, many individuals in the domestic WEB3 financial sector have undoubtedly gone through a tumultuous 2025! It seems that in the future, we should adhere to the OCBD-related pathways in the field of digital currency, focusing on models such as the digital RMB and digital HKD under the centralized Mbridge central bank bridge system.
However, under this high pressure, for many individuals in the quasi-financial sector who are on non-compliant paths, there are still various financial means promoting various virtual tokens and investment agreements, ranging from gold to consumer rebate points. These are carefully disguised and packaged as large platform or state-owned enterprise joint data asset projects for market release, primarily relying on sales teams, business school systems, and familiar team fissions for harvesting.
However, under this high pressure, for many individuals in the quasi-financial sector who are on non-compliant paths, there are still various financial means promoting various virtual tokens and investment agreements, ranging from gold to consumer rebate points. These are carefully disguised and packaged as large platform or state-owned enterprise joint data asset projects for market release, primarily relying on sales teams, business school systems, and familiar team fissions for harvesting.
Bitcoin breaks 7, bull market score returns to 0, Bessenet states the U.S. will not provide assistance, Epstein case impacts the crypto circle, what special signals are present in this round of cryptocurrency crash?
This round of Bitcoin's sharp decline actually originated from the ETH liquidity leverage issues around October 2025, which then fermented into BTC, stablecoins, and the MEME market, ultimately entering the main wave of decline after experiencing two rounds of platform adjustments. BTC officially returns to the $60,000 range today!
From the perspective of path analysis, the cryptocurrency market does not consider the structural changes in macro liquidity, such as the Federal Reserve, gold and silver, and U.S. stocks. Its crash seems to be similar to the deleveraging logic during Bitcoin's major decline in 2022! Here I want to first present a set of examples and then analyze others!
In 2022, there was a leading institution in the market worth billions, known by some NPLs as 'Three Arrows Capital' (3AC). At that time, 3AC borrowed ETH using stETH (ETH staked version, originally pegged 1:1 to ETH) as collateral through the decentralized lending platform Aave with high leverage. In May 2022, the UST/LUNA collapse triggered panic in the crypto circle, leading investors to concentrate on selling stETH, resulting in severe imbalances in the stETH-ETH liquidity pool on Curve. The price of stETH plummeted, significantly detaching from ETH. 3AC faced liquidation risks due to high-leverage positions, being forced to sell stETH at a significant discount during the peak of panic to repay debts but ultimately failed to repay debts to institutions like Voyager Digital. It was eventually ordered to liquidate by the British Virgin Islands court, while crypto gambling king Su Zhu and Kyle Davies' massive leverage and 'super cycle theory' were swept into the annals of history!
From the perspective of path analysis, the cryptocurrency market does not consider the structural changes in macro liquidity, such as the Federal Reserve, gold and silver, and U.S. stocks. Its crash seems to be similar to the deleveraging logic during Bitcoin's major decline in 2022! Here I want to first present a set of examples and then analyze others!
In 2022, there was a leading institution in the market worth billions, known by some NPLs as 'Three Arrows Capital' (3AC). At that time, 3AC borrowed ETH using stETH (ETH staked version, originally pegged 1:1 to ETH) as collateral through the decentralized lending platform Aave with high leverage. In May 2022, the UST/LUNA collapse triggered panic in the crypto circle, leading investors to concentrate on selling stETH, resulting in severe imbalances in the stETH-ETH liquidity pool on Curve. The price of stETH plummeted, significantly detaching from ETH. 3AC faced liquidation risks due to high-leverage positions, being forced to sell stETH at a significant discount during the peak of panic to repay debts but ultimately failed to repay debts to institutions like Voyager Digital. It was eventually ordered to liquidate by the British Virgin Islands court, while crypto gambling king Su Zhu and Kyle Davies' massive leverage and 'super cycle theory' were swept into the annals of history!
What impact does the smaller non-farm data falling short of expectations have on the cryptocurrency market and the global financial market?
#小非农数据不及预期 The small non-farm data serves as a leading indicator of the official non-farm employment data in the U.S. and is often seen as a barometer of economic health.
The ADP report for January 2026 shows that the U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 48,000.
This data not only declined from the revised 37,000 last month, but also reflects the ongoing weakness in the job market.
The education and healthcare services sector contributed 74,000 jobs, becoming the only bright spot, while professional and business services lost 57,000 jobs, and manufacturing has seen job losses every month for two consecutive years.
The ADP report for January 2026 shows that the U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 48,000.
This data not only declined from the revised 37,000 last month, but also reflects the ongoing weakness in the job market.
The education and healthcare services sector contributed 74,000 jobs, becoming the only bright spot, while professional and business services lost 57,000 jobs, and manufacturing has seen job losses every month for two consecutive years.
How to view Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve chairman? Is his tenure a positive or negative for the market?
On January 30, 2026, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve chairman.
First, Kevin Warsh is not an academic economist, unlike his predecessors Bernanke or Yellen.
He was an executive at Morgan Stanley and became the youngest Federal Reserve Board member in history at the age of 35 in 2006.
His father-in-law is Ronald Lauder of the Estee Lauder family.
This stacked two buffs.
First, Ronald Lauder is Jewish and is the president of the World Jewish Congress.
First, Kevin Warsh is not an academic economist, unlike his predecessors Bernanke or Yellen.
He was an executive at Morgan Stanley and became the youngest Federal Reserve Board member in history at the age of 35 in 2006.
His father-in-law is Ronald Lauder of the Estee Lauder family.
This stacked two buffs.
First, Ronald Lauder is Jewish and is the president of the World Jewish Congress.
Guessing the BTC bear market bottom from historical cycles
We estimate based on the retracement percentage from bull to bear in historical cycles
The first time around 2011 had a retracement of 94%
This time can be ignored because it was very early
Liquidity was poor and participants were limited
The second time around 2013 had a retracement of 87%
The third time around 2017 had a retracement of 84%
The fourth time around 2021 had a retracement of 77%
The fifth time in 2025, the retracement intensity appears to be less severe based on the cycle
Because the market has a stronger consensus
With the addition of institutions
The cost of building positions and the factors of miner costs after each halving
Currently, we are speculating based on historical cycles showing a shallower retracement
If this time the retracement is 70%
The price will retrace around 38000, and at 60%
The price will be around 50500
I am somewhat more optimistic than this data
Still adhering to the previous estimate
Around 63000 and around 52000 for these two prices.
#BTC何时反弹？
We estimate based on the retracement percentage from bull to bear in historical cycles
The first time around 2011 had a retracement of 94%
This time can be ignored because it was very early
Liquidity was poor and participants were limited
The second time around 2013 had a retracement of 87%
The third time around 2017 had a retracement of 84%
The fourth time around 2021 had a retracement of 77%
The fifth time in 2025, the retracement intensity appears to be less severe based on the cycle
Because the market has a stronger consensus
With the addition of institutions
The cost of building positions and the factors of miner costs after each halving
Currently, we are speculating based on historical cycles showing a shallower retracement
If this time the retracement is 70%
The price will retrace around 38000, and at 60%
The price will be around 50500
I am somewhat more optimistic than this data
Still adhering to the previous estimate
Around 63000 and around 52000 for these two prices.
#BTC何时反弹？
Is the rebound in gold and silver a bottom-fishing opportunity or a chance to escape?
Hurry to escape, every time the speculation ends with a single-day crash, the rebound peak is 4880, but many people will be trapped inside.
This round of speculation in gold and silver is as outrageous as it gets; it is as absurd as it can be!
For example, Chinese gold is not a gold mining stock at all; it's just a seller of gold jewelry, similar to Chow Tai Fook. When gold prices surge, the demand for gold jewelry will plummet, which is a negative factor, leading to a decline in profits for these companies. Over a thousand gold shops closed last year. However, as long as it has the word 'gold' in it, it gets pulled up with several limit ups.
This round of speculation in gold and silver is as outrageous as it gets; it is as absurd as it can be!
For example, Chinese gold is not a gold mining stock at all; it's just a seller of gold jewelry, similar to Chow Tai Fook. When gold prices surge, the demand for gold jewelry will plummet, which is a negative factor, leading to a decline in profits for these companies. Over a thousand gold shops closed last year. However, as long as it has the word 'gold' in it, it gets pulled up with several limit ups.
The strategy again discloses its increased holdings of bitcoin; does this behavior indicate confidence in the long-term trend of bitcoin?
The strategy significantly increased its holdings of bitcoin multiple times between 2025 and 2026.
For example:
Purchased 397 bitcoins at a price of approximately $114,771 per coin on November 3, 2025, worth $45.6 million.
Purchased 10,624 bitcoins at a price of approximately $90,615 per coin on December 7, 2025, worth $963 million.
Purchased 13,627 bitcoins at a price of approximately $91,519 per coin on January 12, 2026, worth $1.25 billion.
Saylor's strategy emphasizes 'HODL' (holding on for the long term), meaning to persist in buying regardless of market fluctuations.
For example:
The annualized return on bitcoin for the strategy (YTD 2025) reached 24.7%, indicating that its long-term holdings can still generate significant returns amidst market volatility.
For example:
Purchased 397 bitcoins at a price of approximately $114,771 per coin on November 3, 2025, worth $45.6 million.
Purchased 10,624 bitcoins at a price of approximately $90,615 per coin on December 7, 2025, worth $963 million.
Purchased 13,627 bitcoins at a price of approximately $91,519 per coin on January 12, 2026, worth $1.25 billion.
Saylor's strategy emphasizes 'HODL' (holding on for the long term), meaning to persist in buying regardless of market fluctuations.
For example:
The annualized return on bitcoin for the strategy (YTD 2025) reached 24.7%, indicating that its long-term holdings can still generate significant returns amidst market volatility.
What Impact Does the Epstein Case Have on the Cryptocurrency Space?
#爱泼斯坦案烧向币圈
The Epstein case continues to ferment in early 2026, impacting the cryptocurrency sector through two main pathways: first, the boycott actions initiated by JPMorgan Chase due to its connection to Epstein directly affect market sentiment; second, prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space, Justin Sun, has been accused by his ex-girlfriend of being the "Epstein of the cryptocurrency world," linking the case directly to shady operations in cryptocurrency.
1. The JPMorgan Chase Boycott: A Ripple Effect in the Cryptocurrency Market
In November 2025, the historical connections between JPMorgan Chase and Epstein were re-examined, sparking a strong boycott from the crypto community. A report from the Senate Finance Committee claimed that JPMorgan Chase sheltered Epstein, although a bank spokesperson emphasized that a suspicious activity report was submitted as early as 2013. Nevertheless, cryptocurrency supporters initiated actions to "sell JPMorgan Chase stock and buy MSTR (and Bitcoin)." According to JPMorgan Chase research, the outflow of funds could reach $2.8 billion, and if other service providers follow suit, this figure could rise to $8.8 billion.
The Epstein case continues to ferment in early 2026, impacting the cryptocurrency sector through two main pathways: first, the boycott actions initiated by JPMorgan Chase due to its connection to Epstein directly affect market sentiment; second, prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space, Justin Sun, has been accused by his ex-girlfriend of being the "Epstein of the cryptocurrency world," linking the case directly to shady operations in cryptocurrency.
1. The JPMorgan Chase Boycott: A Ripple Effect in the Cryptocurrency Market
In November 2025, the historical connections between JPMorgan Chase and Epstein were re-examined, sparking a strong boycott from the crypto community. A report from the Senate Finance Committee claimed that JPMorgan Chase sheltered Epstein, although a bank spokesperson emphasized that a suspicious activity report was submitted as early as 2013. Nevertheless, cryptocurrency supporters initiated actions to "sell JPMorgan Chase stock and buy MSTR (and Bitcoin)." According to JPMorgan Chase research, the outflow of funds could reach $2.8 billion, and if other service providers follow suit, this figure could rise to $8.8 billion.
Can Bitcoin rise back to 100,000?
From a negative perspective:
1 Crossed the EMA20 monthly line (see ⬇️ chart)
BTC sharply fell below the EMA20 monthly line. In the past, when the monthly line crossed, there was usually at least a 40-50% drop from the EMA20 monthly line.
For example, it dropped from 6400 to 3300 USD in November 2018.
For example, it dropped from over 8000 to 3300 USD in March 2020.
For example, it dropped from about 45000 in April 2022 to around 15000 at the end.
Now, in January 2026, it started to drop from 96000 to around 77000. Conservatively estimated, it should drop to over 50000 with a 40% decline.
2 The collapse of gold prices did not lead to a rise in BTC.
It is generally believed that BTC is digital gold, so it is negatively correlated with gold. However, from this price collapse of gold, the collapse of gold prices led to a more severe drop in BTC. The positive factors did not materialize, turning into negative factors.
1 Crossed the EMA20 monthly line (see ⬇️ chart)
BTC sharply fell below the EMA20 monthly line. In the past, when the monthly line crossed, there was usually at least a 40-50% drop from the EMA20 monthly line.
For example, it dropped from 6400 to 3300 USD in November 2018.
For example, it dropped from over 8000 to 3300 USD in March 2020.
For example, it dropped from about 45000 in April 2022 to around 15000 at the end.
Now, in January 2026, it started to drop from 96000 to around 77000. Conservatively estimated, it should drop to over 50000 with a 40% decline.
2 The collapse of gold prices did not lead to a rise in BTC.
It is generally believed that BTC is digital gold, so it is negatively correlated with gold. However, from this price collapse of gold, the collapse of gold prices led to a more severe drop in BTC. The positive factors did not materialize, turning into negative factors.
Why did gold and silver plummet rapidly, and what are the main reasons for this round of sharp decline? Why did UBS increase the gold target price against the trend?
The drastic fluctuations of gold in the past 24 hours are rare in trading history! It feels a bit like playing with meme chains.
The two most important uncertain factors currently are:
1. The geopolitical dispute between the US and Iran
Will the US attack Iran? What would be the outcome if war breaks out?
The answer is uncertain
2, will the US dollar break historically and turn bearish soon? The answer is also uncertain
However, the US dollar has held at 96, showing strong resilience, and with gold soaring continuously, it has risen for eight consecutive trading days, with a gain of over 20% in January!
This has led to the occurrence of the following situation in the past 24 hours, where the US dollar (black line) rises, and gold (red line) faces correction pressure, with both moving in opposite directions.
The two most important uncertain factors currently are:
1. The geopolitical dispute between the US and Iran
Will the US attack Iran? What would be the outcome if war breaks out?
The answer is uncertain
2, will the US dollar break historically and turn bearish soon? The answer is also uncertain
However, the US dollar has held at 96, showing strong resilience, and with gold soaring continuously, it has risen for eight consecutive trading days, with a gain of over 20% in January!
This has led to the occurrence of the following situation in the past 24 hours, where the US dollar (black line) rises, and gold (red line) faces correction pressure, with both moving in opposite directions.
Many people haven't figured it out:
The rise of gold is not essentially to make you rich,
but to solve the debt problem.
Assuming I owe you 1 million,
I can't pay in cash now, what to do?
No problem,
I have the pricing power of gold.
I drive the price of gold up to 1 million per gram.
At this point, the gold in your hands
also has a paper value of 1 million.
Alright, it's simple now:
I give you 1 gram of gold,
we—settle the debt.
The debt is resolved,
the system is stabilized.
After I handle my debt issues,
restore my credit,
liquidity returns,
I will then drive the price of gold back down to 10 bucks per gram.
At this point, the gold in your hands,
the paper value is only 10 bucks.
And what about me?
I will then use 10 bucks,
to buy back that 1 gram of gold from you.
What is the result?
My debt: gone
My gold: back
Your assets: completed a "legal shrinkage"
Throughout the whole process,
there was no default,
no robbery,
it even looks quite fair.
The only problem is:
You think the rise of gold is saving you,
in fact, it is liquidating you.
The real winner,
is never the "holder of assets,"
but rather
the one with pricing power.
If you can't understand this,
every time you see an asset surge,
it could just be the prelude to the next harvest.
#贵金属巨震 #金价再冲高位
The rise of gold is not essentially to make you rich,
but to solve the debt problem.
Assuming I owe you 1 million,
I can't pay in cash now, what to do?
No problem,
I have the pricing power of gold.
I drive the price of gold up to 1 million per gram.
At this point, the gold in your hands
also has a paper value of 1 million.
Alright, it's simple now:
I give you 1 gram of gold,
we—settle the debt.
The debt is resolved,
the system is stabilized.
After I handle my debt issues,
restore my credit,
liquidity returns,
I will then drive the price of gold back down to 10 bucks per gram.
At this point, the gold in your hands,
the paper value is only 10 bucks.
And what about me?
I will then use 10 bucks,
to buy back that 1 gram of gold from you.
What is the result?
My debt: gone
My gold: back
Your assets: completed a "legal shrinkage"
Throughout the whole process,
there was no default,
no robbery,
it even looks quite fair.
The only problem is:
You think the rise of gold is saving you,
in fact, it is liquidating you.
The real winner,
is never the "holder of assets,"
but rather
the one with pricing power.
If you can't understand this,
every time you see an asset surge,
it could just be the prelude to the next harvest.
#贵金属巨震 #金价再冲高位
After a significant drop, spot gold rebounded and broke through the 5400 USD mark again. Why is there such a large fluctuation?
I personally believe there are roughly these几点 reasons.
1. CME raised the margin for gold and silver, and not long ago there was a short-term sharp drop that also occurred after CME raised the margin. This means that the leverage available has decreased, and with less money to buy, the price has dropped.
2. There are widespread rumors online that the US aircraft carrier turned off its lights last night, possibly indicating a strike on Iran. However, looking at the responses from the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market, the news seems to be true. Although gold is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, in the context of such significant recent volatility, it has undoubtedly attracted a lot of risk capital. However, when faced with a situation like war, risk capital tends to withdraw quickly, leading to a price drop.
1. CME raised the margin for gold and silver, and not long ago there was a short-term sharp drop that also occurred after CME raised the margin. This means that the leverage available has decreased, and with less money to buy, the price has dropped.
2. There are widespread rumors online that the US aircraft carrier turned off its lights last night, possibly indicating a strike on Iran. However, looking at the responses from the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market, the news seems to be true. Although gold is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, in the context of such significant recent volatility, it has undoubtedly attracted a lot of risk capital. However, when faced with a situation like war, risk capital tends to withdraw quickly, leading to a price drop.
The scripts for the next one or two months have already been written for everyone.
China is ramping up bulk commodities and crude oil, establishing a currency swap agreement to gain pricing power in RMB, which will inflate American inflation.
The United States retaliates, trying to win over Iran and Saudi Arabia, then cutting Japan to recover funds.
It is expected that the yen will depreciate to 160 next month, followed by aggressive interest rate hikes.
Major powers are in conflict; the cryptocurrency market is the worst off, without any sovereign backing.
Shorting Bitcoin + going long on crude oil/copper = following China to cut into the U.S. stock market.
Shorting the yen = following the U.S. to cut into Japan to recover funds.
I advise everyone not to go long; it will drop further.
#BTC
China is ramping up bulk commodities and crude oil, establishing a currency swap agreement to gain pricing power in RMB, which will inflate American inflation.
The United States retaliates, trying to win over Iran and Saudi Arabia, then cutting Japan to recover funds.
It is expected that the yen will depreciate to 160 next month, followed by aggressive interest rate hikes.
Major powers are in conflict; the cryptocurrency market is the worst off, without any sovereign backing.
Shorting Bitcoin + going long on crude oil/copper = following China to cut into the U.S. stock market.
Shorting the yen = following the U.S. to cut into Japan to recover funds.
I advise everyone not to go long; it will drop further.
#BTC
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