Bitcoin's Stall At $52K May Foreshadow Imminent Pullback Before Higher Prices: Swissblock
Bitcoin's stalling momentum at the $52,000 resistance could signal an "imminent pullback" as 33% rise in a few weeks is "unsustainable", Swissblock said.
The uptrend could still continue, with 10x Research setting a $57,500 price target for the next leg higher.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} rose above $52,000 this week for the first time in 26 months, but its stalling momentum may foreshadow an "imminent" pullback before higher prices, Swissblock analysts said in a Friday market update.
The largest crypto by market cap rallied 10% in a week, outperforming the broad-market CoinDesk20 Index's (CD20) 8% advance, extending its relentless rise from $38,500 in late January. The surge was coupled with accelerating inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), with BlackRock's IBIT raking in over 28,000 bitcoin this week.
However, the $52,000 area is a significant resistance level on long-term charts that capped prices in September and December in 2021, Swissblock noted, and now also posed a meaningful barrier for the rally to continue now.
"A pullback seems imminent and necessary given the recent rapid ascent of approximately 33% over the past few weeks, suggesting an unsustainable rally," Swissblock analysts wrote.
Beyond a short-term dip, the market looks poised for higher prices, the report added, and any forthcoming correction could be a buying opportunity as long as BTC holds its support at near $47,500. "At this point, any pullback should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity," the report said.
Institutional crypto exchange FalconX also noted "exceptional" trading volumes that support the early 2024 uptrend, last seen during the 2023 March regional banking crisis.
"Price increases followed by lower volumes have historically been a reliable indicator of false breakouts in crypto," FalconX analysts wrote Friday. "The good news at this point is that liquidity conditions surrounding the January rally remain generally robust."
10x Research analyst Markus Thielen said in a Friday update that bitcoin could run towards a $57,500 price target, citing strong liquidity and increasing demand for bitcoin futures.
"Bitcoin appears to target 57,000 as its next resistance, and considering BTC's performance in the previous pre-halvings, the odds for another leg being higher are increasing," Thielen wrote.
#BitcoinUpdate You can see the liquidity difference between the previous post and the current post. Very high liquidity has accumulated at 54k and around, and there seems to be no reason why Market Maker shouldn't target that region.
OpenAI Text-to-video Model Sora Wows X but Still Has Weaknesses
Artificial intelligence firm OpenAI unveiled its first-ever text-to-video model to a strong reception on Thursday, though the firm admits the model still has a ways to go.
OpenAI unveiled the new generative AI model, dubbed Sora, on Feb. 15, which is said to create detailed videos from simple text prompts, continue existing videos, and even generate scenes based on a still image.
Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model.Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions. https://t.co/7j2JN27M3WPrompt: “Beautiful, snowy… pic.twitter.com/ruTEWn87vf
— OpenAI (@OpenAI) February 15, 2024
According to a Feb. 15 blog post, OpenAI claimed the AI model can generate movie-like scenes in up to resolution up to 1080p. These scenes can include multiple characters, specific types of motion, and accurate details of the subject and background.
How Sora works
Much like OpenAI’s image-based predecessor DALL-E 3, Sora operates on what’s known as a “diffusion” model.
Diffusion refers to a generative AI model creating its output by generating a video or an image with something that looks more like “static noise” and then gradually transforming it by “removing the noise” over several steps.
Announcing Sora — our model which creates minute-long videos from a text prompt: https://t.co/SZ3OxPnxwz pic.twitter.com/0kzXTqK9bG
— Greg Brockman (@gdb) February 15, 2024
The AI firm wrote that Sora has been built on past research from both GPT and DALL-E3 models, something the firm claims makes the model better at more “faithfully” representing user inputs.
OpenAI admitted that Sora still contained several weaknesses, and could struggle to accurately simulate the physics of a complex scene, namely by muddling up the nature of cause and effect.
“For example, a person might take a bite out of a cookie, but afterward, the cookie may not have a bite mark."
The new tool can also confuse the “spatial details” of a given prompt by mixing up lefts and rights or failing to follow precise descriptions of directions, said the firm.
Sora can accidentally generate physically implausible motion. Source: OpenAI
OpenAI said the new generative model is only available for now to “red teamers” — tech parlance for cybersecurity researchers — to assess “critical areas for harms or risks” as well as select designers, visual artists, and filmmakers to gather feedback on how to advance the model.
In December 2023, a report from Stanford University revealed that AI-powered image-generation tools using the AI database LAION, were being trained on thousands of images of illegal child abuse material, something that raises serious ethical and legal concerns for text-to-image or video models.
Users on X left “speechless”
Dozens of video demos have been circulating on X showing examples of Sora in action, while Sora is now trending on X with over 173,000 posts.
In a bid to show off what the new generative model is capable of, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman opened himself up to custom video-generation requests from users on X, with the AI chief sharing a total of seven Sora-generated videos, varying from a duck on dragon back to golden retrievers recording a podcast on a mountain top.
AI commentator Mckay Wrigley — along with many others — wrote that the video generated by Sora had left him “speechless.”
In a Feb. 15 post to X, Nvidia senior researcher Jim Fan declared that anyone who believed Sora to be just another “creative toy,” like DALL-E 3, would be dead wrong.
If you think OpenAI Sora is a creative toy like DALLE, ... think again. Sora is a data-driven physics engine. It is a simulation of many worlds, real or fantastical. The simulator learns intricate rendering, "intuitive" physics, long-horizon reasoning, and semantic grounding, all… pic.twitter.com/pRuiXhUqYR
— Jim Fan (@DrJimFan) February 15, 2024
In Fan’s view, Sora is less a video-generation tool and more a “data-driven physics engine,” as the AI model isn’t just generating abstract video but also deterministically creating the physics of objects in the scene itself.
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