Morita_k

Write a new top post: Outlook for 2026:
1. Able to pay off 10 million in debt
2. Able to stockpile a bunch of goods: 500 units of $BNB 100 units of $ETH
3. Able to develop a trading bot that works well for me, to engage in high-frequency short-term trading and joint margin grid
4. Able to earn money without having to watch the market day and night

Unable to sleep, suddenly enlightened, updating a pinned message:
1. The trading market is a chaotic system (a term from logic), influenced by countless factors, so candlestick charts can only summarize past occurrences and cannot accurately predict the future. It's like humans cannot accurately predict the weather a week from now.
2. The emergence and digestion of market information will cause all factors to trend towards a single direction, so you should pay attention to periodic news and sudden news.
3. Because it is a chaotic system, theoretically your profits depend on mathematical probabilities, whether going long or short.
4. In essence, the probability here is actually the win rate and the profit-loss ratio.
5. Please pay attention to calculating the actual mathematical expectation of profits, for example, a win rate of 90% with a profit-loss ratio of 1:4. In reality, the mathematical expectation of profit is 1*0.9=0.9, and the mathematical expectation of loss is 4*0.1=0.4, so even if the unpopular approach of 'take profit and run, endure losses' is used, as long as the mathematical expectation calculation is reasonable, you can achieve stable profits.
6. So why do all the 'coaches' and 'financial bloggers' tell you that Martingale is doomed?
7. A. Because when you made a profit using 5x leverage, you unfortunately used 10x leverage when losing this time, the overall mathematical expectation will be negative, so try to maintain consistent leverage.
B. When your assets grow to 100k, a 40% drawdown means you lose more money, your resolve is shattered, emotions affect your win rate, and the overall mathematical expectation changes again.
C. Classic mathematical expectation requires a sufficiently large number of occurrences, which means you need a sufficiently long trading career. If you unfortunately fall to a very low asset level, do you have enough time to recover?
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Do not get tangled in their claims that the profit-loss ratio must be positive, do not disdain a 1% profit, beating fees, a more stable win rate, and reasonable mathematical expectations are the essence. (This does not mean you shouldn't use stop-losses; try using wider stop-losses.)
#悟道

I got a bit too eager and messed up the trade, so I just closed it for a small loss. I flipped it twice at 1676 and dragged the average down to 1648.

哎，损完就拉

Today's trade was a clear loss, got a bit reckless, my boo stop-loss didn't trigger, so I ended up canceling the market stop-loss too. As a result, it went from 3.8 → 8.5 → 37.14. That's the price of not sticking to your trading discipline.

The ATR14 even hit 6, what a thunderous market!

Ouch, I shorted at the bottom!

Too bad we couldn't hold onto 1800.

It's a nonstop dip, huh?

Damn, the closing price is lower than my liquidation price, and it's not even a liquidation. What kind of market is this?

Riding the wave of $BNB spot bonuses

All four DCA plans are in the red, but we’re stacking in a bear market. In my spot holdings, the standout performer is $币安人生 +2%, followed by $BNB and $ASTER , which are basically break-even at +0.2%. However, BNB is doing okay because I bought it between 585/600 and dollar-cost averaged it when it hit 680. The real losers are ENA and ETH; I’ve been DCA’ing into them, and they’re down -15% and -10%, respectively.

Daily deduction is 10 USDC.

scary

Whoa, how did it just suddenly drop to this price?

Another victory against the single orders, sigh, let's scalp properly next week.

Whoa, what's going down today?

Just closed my position, then they pumped it, I'm done.

Make a trade, mess up a trade, respect yourself.

$币安人生 666 flipped

Here we are back at this price again, but the position's gone - classic move.