Mario Vinicius Cripto

👉 🌎 🇹🇷 Iran has just escalated the war and launched an attack against Turkey, a NATO member, for the first time in history.

Iran has just launched a ballistic missile towards Turkey. NATO's air defenses in the Eastern Mediterranean intercepted it.

Turkey's Ministry of Defense: "The missile, launched from Iran, passed through Iraq and Syria, heading towards Turkish airspace. NATO systems intercepted it. Debris fell in Hatay province, near the border with Syria. No casualties.

Article 5 states that an attack on one country is an attack on all.

Turkey's response: "We warn all parties to refrain from actions that could further exacerbate the conflict. We reserve the right to respond to any hostile actions."

👉 Trump announced on his social network the death of the supreme leader of Iran.

👉 BREAKING NEWS!

Israel claims that the Supreme Leader of Iran, Khamenei, is dead and his body has been found.

🇮🇷 Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz

Oil tankers are piling up in a congestion in the strait through which about 20% to 25% of all oil traded worldwide passes.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it is likely that a global crisis will arise due to the substantial increase in the price of oil and other commodities that depend on naval transport in the region.

👉 BREAKING NEWS!

The USA and Israel carry out a coordinated attack against Iran, which fires missiles in response.

Explosions were heard in Tehran and at least four other cities.

Trump said the goal is to 'protect the American people' from threats.

💸 The volume of BTC in losses has just reached 10 million coins, the fourth highest value ever recorded.

Another 70 thousand coins are at a loss due to purchases made between February 6 and today.

The circulating supply will reach 20 million BTC next week, which represents a 50% loss.

History suggests that this capital destruction is enough to characterize the bottom of a bear market.

📊👀 The weekly RSI of BTC is in oversold territory. The last time we were this low was after the LUNA collapse.

👉 Despite hitting a second historical record in early October, the relationship between profit and realized loss (simple moving average of 90 days) has been showing a downward trend since the end of July.

Now, it has fallen to around 1.45, signaling a clear deterioration in the overall profitability of the market — although it remains above the lower limit of 1, historically associated with extreme phases of capitulation.

👉 More than US$ 4 billion in leveraged positions have been liquidated in the last five days.

The market remains extremely volatile, with a lot of exposure to risk and practically no margin for error in the operations.

👉 In the previous cycle, Bitcoin found the bottom of the bear market precisely when it returned to test the top of the past bull market as support — a region that ended up holding the price and marking the long-term turnaround.

There is a good chance we will see a similar behavior in this cycle, with the market seeking this same structural logic of testing the previous top as a base.

It's worth remembering that, historically, the price tends to spend several months consolidating in the bottom range, with a lot of volatility and false starts.

It is precisely during this period that a well-executed DCA strategy tends to be more efficient, allowing for position accumulation at an interesting average price over time.

👉 In the previous cycle, Bitcoin found the bottom of the bear market precisely when it returned to test the top of the past bull market as support — a region that ended up holding the price and marking the long-term turnaround.

There is a good chance we will see a similar behavior in this cycle, with the market seeking this same structural logic of testing the previous top as a base.

It's worth remembering that, historically, the price tends to spend several months consolidating in the bottom range, with a lot of volatility and false starts.

It is precisely during this period that a well-executed DCA strategy tends to be more efficient, allowing for position accumulation at an interesting average price over time.

👉 We warned yesterday that the 60 thousand dollar range had several technical confluences that could offer a good buying zone.

As can be seen in the daily chart, after touching 60k, Bitcoin reacted strongly and almost rose 20% from the bottom to the top of the movement, practically canceling out the drop from the previous day.

For those involved in short-term operations, it already makes sense to realize part of the profit and/or adjust the stop to protect the position.

For long-term investors, it was a very interesting entry region.

Even so, it is still early to confirm a reversal of the macro trend.

👉 The price of Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average.

In the second chart, it can be seen that, in Bitcoin's history, this average has acted as an important support during the bear cycles of 2015, 2018, and during the pandemic drop.

On the other hand, in 2022, this level failed to hold the price.

The question now is: will the average hold again this time, or will we lose this support?

👉 The price of Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average.

In the second chart, it can be seen that, in Bitcoin's history, this average has acted as an important support during the bear cycles of 2015, 2018, and during the pandemic drop.

On the other hand, in 2022, this level failed to hold the price.

The question now is: will the average hold again this time, or will we lose this support?

👉 Crypto market sentiment very close to 10, extreme fear.

There have been few times this has happened.

Usually, purchases in moments like this become good buys.

👉 Bitcoin reached close to 60k dollars today.

As I highlighted in this analysis, we are already in my view at a good point to establish buying positions.

👉 —❗️🇮🇷 ALL ARMED FORCES OF IRAN ON HIGH ALERT

Iran has placed all branches of its Armed Forces on maximum readiness, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

👉 —❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING

The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States have been CANCELLED.

According to Axios, the talks collapsed after the U.S. refused Iran's demand to limit the negotiations solely to the nuclear issue.

📌 Source: Axios

👉 Trump signs bill that ends the government shutdown in the U.S. (CNBC).

👉 MONTHLY Chart of Bitcoin.

I believe this will be the movement of the coming months.

Bitcoin will test the peak of the last cycle as support, and I believe this region will be a great point to start buying, averaging the price over the months.