你的lpy

Daily Share
3.30
It has been more than 10 days since the last update, and my views haven't changed much during this period, so I feel like there's not much to share. Currently, BTC is around 83,500; there may be a rebound in between, but it seems that the decline has not reached its target. We need volume expansion on the 4-hour level or a slowdown in the candlestick structure. This should be the last wave of decline if a new low is not broken. Patience is required.

Daily Share
3.21
Recently, Bitcoin has been very difficult. To be honest, I was more optimistic when it surged to 87,000 the day before yesterday, but in the past two days, Bitcoin has still declined. Personally, I tend to think it will drop to 80,000 once more before starting a daily level increase. Mainly, the daily candlestick chart during this rise from 76,000 to 87,000 has been almost alternating between one bearish and one bullish day, which does not look like a typical upward movement on the daily chart.

Unless Bitcoin has consecutive bullish days in the next few trading days, we will change our view. Personally, I am more inclined to see it drop to form a double bottom before starting a daily level increase.

Daily Share
3.18
Looking at Bitcoin's amplitude on the daily chart, it is getting smaller and smaller, and a direction is about to emerge. Personally, I still tend to lean towards an upward trend.

Daily Share
3.15
Yesterday, I personally expected a decline, and the 1-hour movement was quite uncomfortable. On Friday, BTC was relatively strong, so according to the structure, it might go to 87000 again and then pull back to the 82-3000 position.

Daily Sharing
3.14
Yesterday, I shared my thoughts on a 15-minute pullback, expecting it to bottom out at 82000. I didn't expect it to drop below 80000 in the evening, and after that, I couldn't expect any upward movement. We are likely to enter a longer period of consolidation.

What we want to discuss here is whether this one-hour increase will break through 94000 (if it breaks, the medium-term outlook is bullish; if it does not break, the situation is not optimistic). Bitcoin is likely to drop again afterward (as shown in Figure 1), because each of these three declines has been larger than the last (as shown in Figure 2). This indicates that there is a significant divergence in market funding; upward movement requires gradually smaller fluctuations, and market consensus is needed to collectively rise. The upcoming days will likely involve a longer period of consolidation, so remember to avoid chasing after rises and selling into dips. (I have had deep lessons from such market conditions and am very familiar with this type of candlestick pattern.)

Daily Share
3.13
Currently, the probability of Bitcoin starting a 4-hour upward movement is getting higher, and the bears are about to take off 🛫. This makes us feel optimistic.

However, the downside is that I am posting this at 12:04. The Bitcoin price is around 83,500, and the 15-minute candlestick chart does not look very optimistic here; it may need to continue to retrace, likely down to around 82,000 before moving upward. Remember to pay attention to Bitcoin's pullback in the afternoon.

Daily Share
3.11
The structure here is almost complete. We have been emphasizing that the transition between bull and bear markets is around 74000. We are very close now, and this is a good point to gradually enter long positions. Shorting here is equivalent to shorting at a support level. If Bitcoin returns to 83000, we can basically say it has stabilized. This will initiate a wave of daily-level increases and will once again challenge the resistance level of 95000.

Daily Share
On March 10th, Bitcoin started to decline, which exceeded our expectations. We initially thought Bitcoin would remain strong around 85,000, but on Monday, it dropped to around 80,000. Here, we still need to maintain our original view that the bull-bear boundary for Bitcoin is at 74,000. Currently, it is not far from this position, and the pullback is nearing its limit. Holding short positions here will be very uncomfortable.
Structurally, this decline is nearly complete, and we are now waiting for Bitcoin to stabilize and rise again, at least to around 95,000. We still need to wait for a few more 4-hour candlesticks to confirm whether it has stabilized, so we can only enter a partial position here. There's no need to fear small profits; after this decline is completed, there will be a significant increase. Those with good technical skills can directly take larger positions with stop losses.

Daily Share
3.8
Yesterday's market moved according to our expectations (refer to previous daily shares), this time it is very likely that this is the last drop in terms of structure. After two days of consolidation on Saturday and Sunday, we should start to push towards 95,000 next week. Here, we can start to lay out long positions, gradually building our positions, and we should at least aim to lie down at 92,000. Short positions should not linger here.

Daily Share
8 PM on March 7
Let's talk about some useful information. Generally speaking, the news will only affect the direction at critical points, such as if Bitcoin is around 95,000 now, the news might be quite important tonight. Usually, the news only affects the amplitude but does not influence the direction and structure, which is not much of a concern for us medium-term traders.

The second point is that the market always decides the direction when it is in a sideways movement. To be precise, it is not sideways but rather transitioning from low volatility to high volatility. Clearly, this is not satisfied; it still belongs to a volatile range. Structurally, this decline should be nearing its end, and at most, it will revisit around 86,000 before attempting to break through 95,000 again. After that, we will take it step by step.

Pay attention to short positions here! Those who were previously trapped in short positions should seize this opportunity, as Bitcoin is likely to make another push towards 95,000!

Daily Share
3.7
Attention, attention, Bitcoin is falling as we previously expected (previous daily share), but here around 85000 we cannot short anymore, this may structurally be the last drop, and if short positions are trapped here, we don't know when they will be undone, it's time to start positioning for long positions.

Daily Share
3.6
Yesterday's pullback did not come out as expected. Normally, we should look for a pullback to around 85000. At present, we cannot be overly bullish at this point. We need to wait until the structure is complete before entering to go long. The specific reversal will still take some time to confirm. Personally, I expect that this drop is very likely to come out, and it will be difficult to directly break through 96000.

Daily Share
3.5
Today, Bitcoin may undergo a pullback, and after this pullback, there will be a rebound. In short, this position shouldn't be held for too long; we need to wait for another dip. Personally, I expect this dip to go down to around 85000, and after reaching this position, we cannot short anymore. Then we will see if we can break 95000 with another upward movement.

Casual Chat
Sometimes I also browse the square and look at the posts. Some KOLs like to use dog farms as a topic, and I just enjoy looking at them. In the past, when I played other secondary markets, I often posted like this because it makes it easier for everyone to believe it, the response rate is high, and it easily brings traffic. Most KOLs are like this; when everyone loses money, they need some emotional comfort, so they shift the blame, which makes these KOLs very popular (to some extent, they provide a lot of emotional value). In the end, one will realize that this is meaningless, as we are here to make money, and we must always look for reasons within ourselves.

This type of KOL should not talk too much about technology; they dare to say it's a reversal, but there is still a long way to go before a reversal happens, at least around two weeks. Currently, the probability of a reversal is less than 20%, and the probability of a second probe will be very high, so be mentally prepared.

Daily Share
3.5
Yesterday we said we wouldn't know for sure until there was significant volume, but Bitcoin followed the US stock market with a rebound. Personally, I still remain bearish. It's quite normal to have a counter-trend move, and if we expect a counter-trend move, we won't be too surprised. The best entry for a short position is around 91000, while for a long position, we should wait for the bottom to show significant volume. Last night's increase was clearly not a reversal; we still need to patiently wait.

Daily Share
3.4
The Bitcoin trend here looks quite poor. Originally, I expected 78000 to be the bottom. The move from 78000 to 95000 was a rebound from the bottom. Currently, it seems that the move from 78000 to 95000 is just a rebound to fill the gap during the decline. There is a high probability that new lows will be created again in the next few days. We will wait for the volume to confirm. Personally, I hope Bitcoin does not fall below 74000, otherwise the structure will look very poor.

Daily Share
3.4
The Bitcoin trend is roughly within our expectations (details can be found in yesterday's share). The difference is that this drop has been relatively rapid, which is a 'door painting.' Door painting can easily lead to reverse door painting. Here, I personally tend to think it will go back to around 91000; in terms of operations, I only want to take a small long position around 86000. Starting from 91000, I will consider laying out short positions.
This is just my personal opinion and not investment advice.

Daily Sharing
On March 3rd, the pullback has already emerged, and it is clear that this rebound is not finished. However, this is not a position to go long; the gap has been fully filled. We should look for a wave of pullback, which should at least reach around 89,000. We will see the specifics when we get there. Then, another upward movement should at least reach 95,000, with a strong possibility of breaking 100,000. Only then will this rebound be considered complete.

Daily Share
2.28
Yesterday, Bitcoin did not drop at midnight along with the U.S. stock market. The bearish momentum here has somewhat weakened, and there is a high probability of a rebound, but it is certain that there will be another drop afterward. Initially, I was bearish yesterday, but today it closed with a bullish candle, forming a double bottom pattern. However, it cannot be denied that we are indeed not far from the bottom; currently at 84000, the next support is at 78000. Originally, it was expected to drop directly to 78000. But from the current perspective, it may have to execute a rebound here. Depending on the strength of this rebound, the stop-loss would be at 81500. With low leverage, there is no need to set a stop-loss.