Dear Traders,

As we bounce from the lows of the market crash, how sustainable is this momentum? While the green is a fresh change, what is the market outlook for 2023?

Here is the explanation of the breakdown of the pattern I have noticed between QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING and the BITCOIN HALVING (HALVENING) CYCLE.

Quantitative Tightening is basically a way of cutting the money supply to the economy by increasing interest rates, usually to curve inflation. Usually, after 18 months of interest rate rises, inflation eases the market cash flow returns. As shown in the chart, the BITCOIN cycle from havlening to bull run is approx 18-24 months, followed by OT 5-6 months later with 6-12months bear market, then the cycle repeats.

DAY 0 - HALVENING :

then 18-24 months of BULL MARKET

around the 30 months mark, QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY BEAR

MARKET

48 months (4 years) NEXT HALVENING

CYCLE REPEATS

At the bottom of each BEAR Market, there is also some type of BLACK SWAN EVENT. The following years were no exemption.

January 2015 / December 2018 / March 2020 / November 2022

Next market low - MARCH-MAY 2023

There are many potential factors that may cause this.

Thanks for Reading, and please let me know your thoughts

Lisa

Crypto Trading Mistakes to Avoid: Lessons Learned from Real-Life Scenarios

Crypto trading can be a profitable venture, but it is also a risky one. In the fast-paced and ever-changing world of cryptocurrency, mistakes can be costly. To help avoid these costly errors, we've compiled a list of the most common mistakes made by traders based on real-life scenarios.

FOMO Trading One of the most common mistakes traders make is FOMO (fear of missing out) trading. This is when traders buy into a coin at the height of its price, fearing they will miss out on potential profits. Unfortunately, this strategy often leads to losses as the price typically falls after such a spike. The best way to avoid FOMO trading is to stay informed about market trends and make informed decisions.

Overtrading is another common mistake made by traders. This is when traders make too many trades in a short amount of time. Overtrading can lead to missed opportunities and losses due to high transaction fees. To avoid overtrading, traders should create a trading plan and stick to it.

Ignoring Technical Analysis Technical analysis is a tool used by traders to analyze market trends and identify potential price movements. Ignoring technical analysis can lead to missed opportunities and losses. It is essential to use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis when making trading decisions.

Holding onto Losing Positions Holding onto losing positions is another common mistake traders make. This is when traders refuse to sell a coin that is losing value, hoping it will eventually recover. Unfortunately, this strategy often leads to larger losses. It is essential to set stop-loss orders to limit losses and avoid emotional decision-making.

Not Diversifying Not diversifying is a common mistake made by novice traders. This is when traders invest all their money in one coin, hoping for significant profits. Unfortunately, this strategy often leads to significant losses if the coin's price falls. It is crucial to diversify investments across multiple coins to minimize risk.

No, this is not what the FOMC means...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a committee within the US Federal Reserve System that is responsible for making monetary policy decisions, such as setting the federal funds rate and adjusting the money supply.

While the FOMC's decisions can have an impact on various financial markets, including the stock and bond markets, it is less clear how their decisions directly affect cryptocurrencies.

However, some argue that the actions of the FOMC, such as increasing or decreasing interest rates, can indirectly influence the demand for cryptocurrencies. For example, if the FOMC decides to increase interest rates, it may make other investment options, such as bonds or savings accounts, more attractive to investors than cryptocurrencies, which are generally considered riskier.

Additionally, some cryptocurrency enthusiasts believe that the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies makes them less susceptible to the influence of centralized institutions like the FOMC. However, the reality is that cryptocurrencies are still very much influenced by market forces, including investor sentiment and overall economic conditions.

Overall, while the FOMC's decisions may have some indirect impact on the cryptocurrency market, it is important to remember that cryptocurrencies are still a relatively new and unpredictable asset class that is subject to a wide range of factors beyond the control of any single institution.

#ORIGINALCONTENT #fomc #fomcmeeting

CHARTS TO WATCH

DXY

BTC.D

USDT.D

TOTAL CRYPTO MARKETCAP

Here are some common cryptocurrency trading patterns that traders may use to identify potential buying or selling opportunities.

Breakout Pattern: This is a pattern that occurs when the price of a cryptocurrency breaks out of a particular price range. This can be a bullish or bearish sign depending on the direction of the breakout.

Head and Shoulders Pattern: This is a technical pattern that can indicate a potential trend reversal. It consists of three peaks, with the middle peak being the highest and the other two peaks being lower and roughly equal in height.



Bullish Engulfing Pattern: This is a candlestick pattern that occurs when a small red candlestick is followed by a larger green candlestick. This can indicate a potential bullish reversal.

Bearish Engulfing Pattern: This is the opposite of the bullish engulfing pattern. It occurs when a small green candlestick is followed by a larger red candlestick. This can indicate a potential bearish reversal.

Double Top and Double Bottom Patterns: These are technical patterns that can indicate a potential trend reversal. A double top occurs when the price reaches a high point twice and fails to break through, while a double bottom occurs when the price reaches a low point twice and fails to break through.

It's important to remember that trading patterns can be subjective and may not always be reliable indicators of market movements. It's always a good idea to do your research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A few general guidelines on developing a trading strategy for cryptocurrencies.

(Follow me and read my other posts for more trading tips and tricks)

Set your goals and risk tolerance: Before investing in cryptocurrencies, it is important to define your investment goals and risk tolerance level. Ask yourself how much you are willing to invest and how much risk you are willing to take.

Conduct thorough research: Research and analyze the market trends, news, and the historical performance of the cryptocurrency that you are interested in trading. Use technical analysis tools like charts, indicators, and other analytical tools to identify potential trading opportunities.

Diversify your portfolio: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and investing in a single currency can be risky. To mitigate this risk, diversify your portfolio by investing in multiple cryptocurrencies.

Use stop-loss orders: Stop-loss orders can help limit your losses by automatically selling your position when it reaches a certain price point. This can help you minimize your risk exposure.

Follow a trading plan: Develop a trading plan and stick to it. This plan should include your entry and exit points, risk management strategy, and the amount of capital you are willing to invest.

Keep emotions in check: Cryptocurrency trading can be highly emotional. To make rational trading decisions, it is important to keep your emotions in check and avoid making impulsive decisions based on fear or greed.

Remember that trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. It is important to carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance before investing in cryptocurrencies.

Support and resistance are important concepts in technical analysis that can be used to identify potential buying and selling opportunities in the cryptocurrency markets. Here are some general steps to trade support and resistance in crypto:

Identify key support and resistance levels: Look for areas on the chart where the price has repeatedly bounced off a certain level (support) or has struggled to break through a certain level (resistance). These levels can be identified by looking at historical price charts and can be drawn using horizontal lines.

Analyze price action at these levels: Watch how the price reacts when it reaches these key support and resistance levels. If the price bounces off a support level, it may be a good buying opportunity. On the other hand, if the price struggles to break through a resistance level, it may be a good selling opportunity. There are usually 3 touches with the 4th touch either breaking through or breaking down.

Use additional indicators: To confirm your analysis, you may want to use additional technical indicators such as moving averages, momentum indicators, or oscillators. These can help you identify potential trend reversals or confirm that the price is likely to continue in its current direction.

Set your entry and exit points: Once you've identified key support and resistance levels and analyzed price action and additional indicators, you can set your entry and exit points. This will depend on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and overall market conditions.

Manage your risk: As with any trading strategy, it's important to manage your risk. Set stop-loss orders to limit your losses in case the price moves against you. Consider using a position-sizing calculator to determine how much of your portfolio you should risk on each trade.

Remember that support and resistance levels are not always absolute and may be subject to change based on market conditions. Always keep an eye on the price action and adjust your analysis accordingly. Additionally, it's important to stay up-to-date on news and events that may impact the cryptocurrency markets.

Cryptocurrency trading can be a complex and volatile activity, and traders often use a variety of technical analysis tools to help them make informed trading decisions. Trading indicators are one such tool, and they are used to analyze price trends and patterns in cryptocurrency markets.

We explore some of the most common trading indicators used in cryptocurrency trading.

Moving Averages (MA)

Moving averages are a simple but effective tool used to track the average price of a cryptocurrency over a specific time period. Traders use these indicators to identify trends in price movements and determine support and resistance levels. MAs can be used for both short-term and long-term analysis, with shorter-term MAs providing more sensitive signals and longer-term MAs providing more stable signals.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It is used to determine whether a cryptocurrency is overbought or oversold. Traders use the RSI to identify potential trend reversals or confirm existing trends. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, with values above 70 indicating overbought conditions and values below 30 indicating oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands (BB)

Bollinger Bands are a popular tool used to measure volatility in cryptocurrency markets. They consist of a simple moving average line, as well as two standard deviation lines above and below the moving average line. Traders use BB to identify potential buy and sell signals, as well as to determine support and resistance levels. When the price moves outside of the standard deviation lines, it is considered a signal of a potential price reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci retracement is a tool used to determine potential levels of support and resistance based on key Fibonacci ratios. These ratios are calculated by dividing a number in the Fibonacci sequence by the number that comes before it. Traders use Fibonacci retracements to identify potential price levels where a cryptocurrency may experience a price reversal. The most commonly used Fibonacci retracement levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.

Ichimoku Cloud

The Ichimoku Cloud is a comprehensive technical analysis tool that uses multiple indicators to provide a more complete picture of price movements. It consists of five lines, including a conversion line, a baseline, a leading span A and B, and a lagging span. Traders use the Ichimoku Cloud to identify potential buy and sell signals, as well as to determine support and resistance levels.

Conclusion

While there are many indicators to choose from, these five are some of the most commonly used in cryptocurrency trading. Traders should experiment with different indicators and develop their own trading strategies based on their individual risk tolerance and investment goals.

Here are some common cryptocurrency trading patterns that traders may use to identify potential buying or selling opportunities.

Breakout Pattern: This is a pattern that occurs when the price of a cryptocurrency breaks out of a particular price range. This can be a bullish or bearish sign depending on the direction of the breakout.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern: This is a candlestick pattern that occurs when a small red candlestick is followed by a larger green candlestick. This can indicate a potential bullish reversal.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern: This is a candlestick pattern that occurs when a small red candlestick is followed by a larger green candlestick. This can indicate a potential bullish reversal. Bearish Engulfing Pattern: This is the opposite of the bullish engulfing pattern. It occurs when a small green candlestick is followed by a larger candlestick. This can indicate a potential bearish reversal.



Double Top and Double Bottom Patterns: These are technical patterns that can indicate a potential trend reversal. A double top occurs when the price reaches a high point twice and fails to break through, while a double bottom occurs when the price reaches a low point twice and fails to break through.

It's important to remember that trading patterns can be subjective and may not always be reliable indicators of market movements. It's always a good idea to do your research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.