零下二度
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Firm belief in Bitcoin’s bull market cycle!
In February 2021, I randomly found a piece of paper in a hotel on a business trip and simply drew the time nodes and multiple difference analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycle. That day, I studied the previous two bear and bull cycles of Bitcoin. It was already in a bull market at that time, so I made an inference on the possible time point of the highest point of the bull market that year. At that time, I concluded that we were in the upward range of the third bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin at this time, and the highest point would definitely occur in a certain period of time. At that time, I had already locked the time of Bitcoin's highest point in November 2021 (of course its highest point turned out to be 69,000, and I overestimated it by more than 20,000 US dollars). This is also the reason why I gradually cleared out the Bitcoin position from mid-November to early December 2021 when it was around 60,000, leaving only 10% of the position that I have held until now. Regarding the detailed inference at the beginning of 2021 when predicting the highest point of the bull market at that time, I published it that month. The following is a screenshot of the analysis that year. (Many people in last year’s big bear market didn’t realize until they looked back that November 2021 was the month when the last bull market ended?) In the afternoon, I reviewed the first three bear-bull cycles of Bitcoin from 2011 to 2021, and the first three Bitcoin declines. The correlation between half time and the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. The start and end time of the next bull market cycle has basically been determined again. As the saying goes, experience is the best teacher, sometimes better than technology. Please firmly believe that Bitcoin’s fourth bull market cycle will officially start in May next year, and will still end in November-December 2025. Under special circumstances, it will be postponed to January of the following year. It is undeniable that all bull markets since the birth of Bitcoin have ended almost from the end of one year to January of the following year. When I reviewed the characteristics of the first three Bitcoin bull cycles, I also looked at the operating characteristics of the first three halving cycles of Litecoin. Combined with the characteristics of this month, I also affirmed a conclusion: Litecoin’s halving time this year is The trend is completely in line with its historical cycle operation rules (the specific characteristics were posted on the afternoon of July 31). Therefore, we don’t need to be too anxious about the current volatile market, don’t be depressed, and get through the next half of the year, and we can welcome the highlight moment again in the first half of next year! 💪Believe in the big cycle operation rules of Bitcoin, this is your true belief in it!
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This wave of bullish trend has 'already' (bullish say 'only') run halfway. The large wave segment of eth 1775-2725 has been completed, with an increase of about 930 points. If it adjusts by 0.382, the lowest pullback could be around 2370 (this can only be realized after breaking 2444). This is the starting point of the rise from a few days ago (at that time, it was said that after breaking 2380-2444, there would be 300 points of space without strong resistance, a smooth path ahead). This is the strongest short-term support; if the price reaches here, it is a bottom-fishing point. After the adjustment, the next large wave segment will be from 2770 to 4036, running for about 4 weeks. As long as it stabilizes above 2660 in the short term, it will move towards the 3-4k direction.
From yesterday to today, it is within a 12-hour level adjustment cycle. The current 4-hour downward momentum is weakening, with a rebound, followed by another 6-8 hour level adjustment and rebound. If a stop-loss signal appears, the daily adjustment will be over.
The 3-day, 5-day, and weekly indicators are healthy, and the medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged. Only a break below 2110 would turn it bearish.
From yesterday to today, it is within a 12-hour level adjustment cycle. The current 4-hour downward momentum is weakening, with a rebound, followed by another 6-8 hour level adjustment and rebound. If a stop-loss signal appears, the daily adjustment will be over.
The 3-day, 5-day, and weekly indicators are healthy, and the medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged. Only a break below 2110 would turn it bearish.
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eth 2380-2444 is the starting point for attacking 3k. A strong breakout here means smooth sailing, with 300 points in between having no strong resistance. You must have positions on the vehicle. A pullback below 2336 is a good opportunity to add to long positions.
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sol: The price began to predict a reversal to a bullish trend around 132 on April 14, with the criterion for judging the price being a breakthrough at 136.5. The mid-term trend sees a maximum around 178. Currently, this trend analysis appears to be correct. Around 178 is still a continuation of the upward trend, and the biggest pressure above is 200. If there is a short-term pullback, closing above 157 for two consecutive days will stabilize here, and then the attack will be towards 200. Spot can be held towards 200-247.
On April 18, I also mentioned in the group that since sol entered the weekly and monthly adjustment cycle ahead of btc, when sol reverses first, we can anticipate that btc is about to reverse. At that time, the price of btc was still below 85000. Looking back now, very few people really took it seriously. Most people pursue opening positions every day, immersing themselves in the vortex of frequently opening positions, and in the process, they deviate from the trend. In fact, I have always hoped that more and more people can hold trend positions, because this is the real way to exchange time for space, truly playing small to win big, which can lead to substantial profits. Losses in contracts usually come from frequent struggles, especially after 2-3 months of super crashes; many people still haven't gotten out of the shadow of that time. Last year, I withdrew most of my funds from the platform, planning to take a break and do something else this year. But since the group exists, I hope some people can hold on without having to open positions frequently. btc above 102000 is no longer suitable for frequent openings; it can only be held upward until it peaks and turns. Regarding trend analysis, especially before a trend reversal, I still have an instinct for the market. When the trend may soon reverse to a bearish one, I will still express my views in advance. As long as you pay attention, the space for a downward single-sided bearish trend will also yield profits of two to three thousand points. There are ups and downs; the harmony of yin and yang is an objective law of material change and development.
On April 18, I also mentioned in the group that since sol entered the weekly and monthly adjustment cycle ahead of btc, when sol reverses first, we can anticipate that btc is about to reverse. At that time, the price of btc was still below 85000. Looking back now, very few people really took it seriously. Most people pursue opening positions every day, immersing themselves in the vortex of frequently opening positions, and in the process, they deviate from the trend. In fact, I have always hoped that more and more people can hold trend positions, because this is the real way to exchange time for space, truly playing small to win big, which can lead to substantial profits. Losses in contracts usually come from frequent struggles, especially after 2-3 months of super crashes; many people still haven't gotten out of the shadow of that time. Last year, I withdrew most of my funds from the platform, planning to take a break and do something else this year. But since the group exists, I hope some people can hold on without having to open positions frequently. btc above 102000 is no longer suitable for frequent openings; it can only be held upward until it peaks and turns. Regarding trend analysis, especially before a trend reversal, I still have an instinct for the market. When the trend may soon reverse to a bearish one, I will still express my views in advance. As long as you pay attention, the space for a downward single-sided bearish trend will also yield profits of two to three thousand points. There are ups and downs; the harmony of yin and yang is an objective law of material change and development.
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Looking back now, it was very correct to anticipate the trend of SOL nearly a month in advance.
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The next major pullback may only be triggered by a rate hike in Japan, which could reverse the trend to bearish. I just mentioned that we are about to enter a unilateral upward trend similar to the one from October 28 to December 18 last year, lasting around 50 days. The real major pullback is likely to occur in July, which is the first month of the third quarter. Japan typically raises interest rates every six months, and July is exactly six months since the last hike. If we can return to the high before December 19 (BTC hitting a new high) in just over a month, we could also escape the peak.
Therefore, the script is completely opposite to what most people in the crypto sphere expect; this year marks a reversal in the second quarter, a pullback in the third quarter (most people expect a rise in the third quarter), and a peak in the fourth quarter. From this perspective, the law of the four-year cycle remains unchanged, and those who claim that the four-year halving cycle rules have been broken are speaking too soon.
Therefore, the script is completely opposite to what most people in the crypto sphere expect; this year marks a reversal in the second quarter, a pullback in the third quarter (most people expect a rise in the third quarter), and a peak in the fourth quarter. From this perspective, the law of the four-year cycle remains unchanged, and those who claim that the four-year halving cycle rules have been broken are speaking too soon.
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Where is the peak of this BTC bullish trend?
Currently, the highest I can see is around 105,000, expected to reach it in about 3 weeks. Some say 110,000, 135,000, and opinions vary widely. However, the charts do not show anything that high for now. If a top change occurs in 2-3 weeks, I will update this view. One should not be influenced by external factors before reaching that point. Any short-term pullbacks or spikes can basically be judged within the 12-hour level, because if it falls below the 12-hour support (92,750), it will move further away from the 100,000 mark, which contradicts the upward trend from the 5-day to weekly levels.
Holding a trend position requires strong willpower. It has already rebounded more than 23,000 points from 74,666. If you want to hold positions, keep them small and definitely set a stop-loss at 95,000. As long as it falls below here, it won't reach 100,000. The higher it goes, the greater the pressure, so short-term long positions should have good profit-taking and stop-loss strategies.
Since it is predicted that around 105,000 is the 'top', once it reaches above 104,600, one can go short without hesitation. If there is a spike above, you will have caught the high for a short position, and pulling back down can easily yield a range of 12,000-18,000 points. Those who can hold trend positions have strong psychological resilience and can ignore the fluctuations in the process, whether doing short-term or medium-term trading, it depends on personal determination.
Currently, the highest I can see is around 105,000, expected to reach it in about 3 weeks. Some say 110,000, 135,000, and opinions vary widely. However, the charts do not show anything that high for now. If a top change occurs in 2-3 weeks, I will update this view. One should not be influenced by external factors before reaching that point. Any short-term pullbacks or spikes can basically be judged within the 12-hour level, because if it falls below the 12-hour support (92,750), it will move further away from the 100,000 mark, which contradicts the upward trend from the 5-day to weekly levels.
Holding a trend position requires strong willpower. It has already rebounded more than 23,000 points from 74,666. If you want to hold positions, keep them small and definitely set a stop-loss at 95,000. As long as it falls below here, it won't reach 100,000. The higher it goes, the greater the pressure, so short-term long positions should have good profit-taking and stop-loss strategies.
Since it is predicted that around 105,000 is the 'top', once it reaches above 104,600, one can go short without hesitation. If there is a spike above, you will have caught the high for a short position, and pulling back down can easily yield a range of 12,000-18,000 points. Those who can hold trend positions have strong psychological resilience and can ignore the fluctuations in the process, whether doing short-term or medium-term trading, it depends on personal determination.
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Last night, the short point of 97850 has been established as the highest point of the week. The trading volume will decrease over the weekend, leading to a technical adjustment on the 4-hour level. 96185-95750 is the recent support area (buy point), with strong support near 95000 (key buy point).
There are two days left in the May Day holiday, and it is expected that the main force may launch a surprise attack no later than late Monday night. Sunday night to Monday morning still remains a time point for buying on dips, and it can be withdrawn during the US market hours.
There are two days left in the May Day holiday, and it is expected that the main force may launch a surprise attack no later than late Monday night. Sunday night to Monday morning still remains a time point for buying on dips, and it can be withdrawn during the US market hours.
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In the current market, the major trend is clearly bullish. The pullback around 93000 on the 12-hour chart on April 30 was determined to be a short-term bottom, and at that moment, the target was set towards 100k. This wave may not reach 102500-105000, and it is unlikely to turn downward. The process of rising will be somewhat tortuous, with repeated horizontal fluctuations in the strong turbulence zone.
During this period, BTC's pullbacks have been on the 2-12 hour level. So far, there has been no bearish divergence on the daily chart. It is obvious that it has not peaked yet. 96600-97700 is a strong turbulence zone, similar to 92500-93800, and it will be tested repeatedly. If it stabilizes above 97300 (closing above 97300 and maintaining for 48 hours), then the door to 100k will be wide open.
During this period, BTC's pullbacks have been on the 2-12 hour level. So far, there has been no bearish divergence on the daily chart. It is obvious that it has not peaked yet. 96600-97700 is a strong turbulence zone, similar to 92500-93800, and it will be tested repeatedly. If it stabilizes above 97300 (closing above 97300 and maintaining for 48 hours), then the door to 100k will be wide open.
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BTC has been sideways for 8 days on the daily chart, usually changing trend on the 10th-11th day. The day after tomorrow (Friday) evening there is a non-farm payroll report, which is an important piece of information that might trigger a trend change. If the news is positive, it will likely push towards the 98,000-100,000 direction. If the sentiment is bearish, it may first test the support around 92,750, and if it rebounds above 94,600, it will still lean bullish. If it cannot rise above and breaks below 92,000, it will turn bearish.
Therefore, we should prepare for both scenarios:
After a second breakout at 95,750, a new high will be established, and shorts need to defend at 96,000.
Going long is relatively simpler; the stop loss could be at the break-even point or around 93,600. If it breaks below 93,600, we will look to buy low between 93,350-92,800, as the support around 93,000 is relatively strong, located near the middle band of the 12-hour Bollinger Bands. The 12-hour chart is the last phase of the hourly adjustment cycle; breaking below here would upgrade to a daily adjustment level, indicating a pullback to the 92,000-90,000 level. If it holds and rebounds, the adjustment will end, and a direction will be chosen upward. Currently, there is no top divergence on the daily chart, and it leans slightly bullish in the short term; we should be cautious about chasing shorts, and only take short positions at highs.
Therefore, we should prepare for both scenarios:
After a second breakout at 95,750, a new high will be established, and shorts need to defend at 96,000.
Going long is relatively simpler; the stop loss could be at the break-even point or around 93,600. If it breaks below 93,600, we will look to buy low between 93,350-92,800, as the support around 93,000 is relatively strong, located near the middle band of the 12-hour Bollinger Bands. The 12-hour chart is the last phase of the hourly adjustment cycle; breaking below here would upgrade to a daily adjustment level, indicating a pullback to the 92,000-90,000 level. If it holds and rebounds, the adjustment will end, and a direction will be chosen upward. Currently, there is no top divergence on the daily chart, and it leans slightly bullish in the short term; we should be cautious about chasing shorts, and only take short positions at highs.
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May Day Golden Week (5.1-5.5), a portion of speculative funds in the A-share market may enter. During the holiday, the main players might take advantage of the situation to manipulate the market, potentially driving prices up. If there are unrealized profits in long positions, after taking some profits, hold on to the rest and ensure a break-even stop. As long as the support does not break down, look upwards. Tomorrow, on May 1, there will be a Japanese monetary policy meeting; as long as the outcome does not result in an interest rate hike, there might be an immediate upward pulse.
By May 5, the last day of the holiday, especially in the late night, the main players might take advantage of the market's fatigue to launch a surprise sell-off. Sometimes, they might even do this a day in advance on May 4 (Sunday night), setting the stage for the monetary policy meeting two days later. Typically, the market will transition into a consolidation phase 1-2 days prior, and on May 7 during the US trading session, a decline will be expected. Therefore, bulls next week should be cautious, maintaining low leverage and light positions. On May 8, the Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting, and the main players generally exit 24 hours in advance to observe. No interest rate cut in May meets expectations, which is not considered bearish; however, the probability of a rate cut in June is high, so May might preemptively absorb the positive expectations for June. Therefore, it is not advisable to short multiple times at the same price level, as prolonged consolidation can lead to volatility. Always set a stop-loss for the last position, and it is safest to place short orders in batches at new high points between 96600-99200.
By May 5, the last day of the holiday, especially in the late night, the main players might take advantage of the market's fatigue to launch a surprise sell-off. Sometimes, they might even do this a day in advance on May 4 (Sunday night), setting the stage for the monetary policy meeting two days later. Typically, the market will transition into a consolidation phase 1-2 days prior, and on May 7 during the US trading session, a decline will be expected. Therefore, bulls next week should be cautious, maintaining low leverage and light positions. On May 8, the Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting, and the main players generally exit 24 hours in advance to observe. No interest rate cut in May meets expectations, which is not considered bearish; however, the probability of a rate cut in June is high, so May might preemptively absorb the positive expectations for June. Therefore, it is not advisable to short multiple times at the same price level, as prolonged consolidation can lead to volatility. Always set a stop-loss for the last position, and it is safest to place short orders in batches at new high points between 96600-99200.
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$BTC has strong support, and there is currently no deep fall. For long positions below 93800, try to hold onto a portion and protect the principal loss. If some speculative funds from the A-shares start to enter tonight, there may be a rally during the May Day holiday, then on the last night of the holiday, taking advantage of people's fatigue on their way back, a surprise attack to sell off could happen. This would set the stage for the Federal Reserve's meeting two days later, generally starting to converge within 24 hours before the meeting, with the main players exiting early to observe.
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In the short term, BTC is forming a consolidation rectangle at a high level. Whether it will break through depends on before next Wednesday.
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Interest Rate Cut Expectations by the Federal Reserve from May to July:
May 8: Maintain interest rate unchanged 93.4%, 25 basis point cut probability 6.6%;
June 19: Maintain interest rate unchanged 38.7%, 25 basis point cut 57.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 3.9%;
July 31: Maintain interest rate unchanged 9.7%, 25 basis point cut probability 43.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 43.9%.
ps: June interest rate cut expectations have warmed up. Increased by 3.1% compared to the previous day's expectations.
May 8: Maintain interest rate unchanged 93.4%, 25 basis point cut probability 6.6%;
June 19: Maintain interest rate unchanged 38.7%, 25 basis point cut 57.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 3.9%;
July 31: Maintain interest rate unchanged 9.7%, 25 basis point cut probability 43.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 43.9%.
ps: June interest rate cut expectations have warmed up. Increased by 3.1% compared to the previous day's expectations.
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Both long and short have opportunities; this market can be hedged, but focus on the main and secondary. Because a large trend has already formed a bullish structure, a temporary pullback is only at the hourly level. High shorts can be defended at 95250, and try to take profits in batches on the way down. Near each support point on the pullback, you can gradually enter long to hedge. For long positions, do not set a pattern for now; if there is a rebound of a few hundred points, it’s good to exit, and at important positions, just hold a bit longer.
The pullback route for BTC: 92765-91250 (important)-90350 (important); near the round number, bulls will resist the rebound. If it recovers above 93500, the risk of further pullback is eliminated. If it doesn't recover, it will retest support near 90000, and after breaking down, it will sequentially pull back to 88800-88050 (important)-87100 (important, currently the lowest point of the hourly adjustment).
The pullback route for BTC: 92765-91250 (important)-90350 (important); near the round number, bulls will resist the rebound. If it recovers above 93500, the risk of further pullback is eliminated. If it doesn't recover, it will retest support near 90000, and after breaking down, it will sequentially pull back to 88800-88050 (important)-87100 (important, currently the lowest point of the hourly adjustment).
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