How to find entry points with lower risk in a wide range consolidation:

You can develop around the short-term 4th wave trial structure:

Chase long positions during the first wave of upward movement

Take profit on half during the second wave of upward movement

Observe or take profit on a one-sided position during the third wave of upward movement

Exit completely and reverse to short during the fourth wave of upward movement.

If the first trade hits the stop loss, the second trade will still enter, as this aligns with the principle of shorting at high positions and going long at low positions, and decisions are made by analyzing the relationship between each rise and fall and the previous market conditions.

Based on historical data, Bitcoin often experiences significant sell-off declines in January of the first year after a halving. However, these pullbacks do not change its long-term upward trend:

#BTC走势分析
January 2021: Bitcoin dropped over 25% from a price of over $40,000 to just above $30,000 by the end of the month. Nevertheless, by November of the same year, the price soared by 130%, reaching an all-time high of $69,000.

January 2017: Bitcoin plunged 30%, falling from $1,300 to $784. However, by the end of that year, the price of Bitcoin ultimately surged by 2,400%, reaching an all-time high of around $20,000 in December.

These historical cases indicate that, despite significant pullbacks at the beginning of the year, the subsequent increases throughout the year are often quite substantial. The market seems to be accumulating strength for subsequent strong growth through early pullbacks.

Currently, Bitcoin has only dropped 10% from its recent peak, far from the substantial pullback levels commonly seen in history. According to various bull-bear peak indicators, no indicator has yet shown a sell signal. Therefore, this pullback appears more like a buildup of strength for future rises rather than a reversal of the trend.

Bitcoin Storm Resurges: Gaining Momentum Amidst Volatility, Welcoming the Next Wave of Explosion

Last night, the price of Bitcoin dropped by 11%, while Ethereum fell by 15%, causing significant market fluctuations that affected investor sentiment. Looking back at December, Bitcoin had soared to a historical high of $104,000, driven by institutional investors, policy support, and macroeconomic factors. However, with decreasing capital inflow and weakening market confidence, a notable correction has occurred recently.

Despite this, market corrections are part of the process of accumulating strength, laying the groundwork for future sustained growth. Through technical analysis, it is recommended to cancel bullish orders in the current high price range and place more buy orders between $87k and $89k, preparing to capture potential rapid declines ("scam wick").

In summary, given the current situation, it's best to remain still for now; currently, only Bitcoin has rebounded after a sharp drop, while other coins have barely moved. If Bitcoin experiences another sharp decline, altcoins will look even worse.

The release of CPI data is expected to bring volatility this week, but the large-scale upward trend of Bitcoin has not ended; the market is gathering momentum, welcoming the next wave of growth. #BTC走势分析

If time goes back, you have bought everything you should have bought:

2008: If you were dragged by your friends to buy something called BTC.
2010: If you invested some money in a small boss named Lei Jun.
2014: If you accidentally bought 100 Titan stickers for a few dollars while playing CS:GO.
2019: If you took over a loss-making mask factory.
2022: If you bought Nvidia's stock.

Then what should I buy in 2025 to have a better layout?
#BTC

The most devastating fire in history, 1.5 million bitcoins went up in flames

Regarding the importance of mnemonic phrases, has anyone thought about how this news could be seen as positive for us, yet why is it still falling?

In the California wildfires, the world's wealthiest community suffered unprecedented losses. The rapidly spreading flames left many millionaires unable to save their cold wallets and mnemonic phrases in time. According to incomplete statistics, at least 1.5 million bitcoins (BTC) have been permanently locked in addresses due to lost private keys, unable to be accessed or used again. This disaster not only destroyed countless homes but also caused a significant amount of bitcoin to permanently exit the circulating market. #BTC

Market correction? No, this is the best time to add positions! The 2025 bull market is in sight!

Although the current monetary policy is not very friendly to the market, the fundamentals of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remain strong. Although the market fell last night, the ETF fund flow was particularly strong. BlackRock alone contributed nearly $600 million in positive inflows, which shows that the main funds not only did not run away, but were quietly adding positions!

The Czech Central Bank is also considering including Bitcoin in its reserves. Fidelity reported that multiple sovereign countries are joining the competition for Bitcoin reserves. In 2025, even giants like Amazon may follow MicroStrategy to hold Bitcoin. Polymarket predicts that the probability of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve within 100 days after Trump takes office is 33%, which was something that could not be imagined half a year ago.

US senators have begun to discuss digital currency legislative reforms, the SEC is counting down to a change of leadership, Coinbase has won the interim appeal with the SEC, and the founder of XRP has also gone to meet Trump. These signs all indicate that the crypto regulatory environment may get better and better. It seems that Trump's support for cryptocurrencies is still credible.

In the long run, the trend of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is still upward. Friends who are still holding coins, don't be scared by short-term fluctuations. This wave of adjustments may be a good opportunity to enter the market or increase positions. Policy and institutional support are increasing, and the bull market in 2025 is worth looking forward to! Everyone should maintain confidence, keep a steady mind, and don't be misled by short-term fluctuations. #BTC走势分析

I thought that after the bitcoin price reached 100,000, we could start the hype before Trump took office, but we never thought that we would return to the pre-liberation period.

The sharp drop last night was mainly due to the fact that two important economic data released by the United States exceeded expectations:

First, the JOLTs job vacancies in November showed strong demand for employees;

Second, the ISM service industry index rebounded sharply in December, indicating future inflationary pressure.

These two signals made the market re-evaluate the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts - traders are no longer sure that there will be a rate cut before July. According to the latest forecast of CME, the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to 4.8%, and in March and May, it has also dropped to 39% and 51% respectively. The real rate cut may have to wait until after June, and only 1-2 rate cuts are expected throughout the year.

This directly hit the market's expectations for loose monetary policy, leading to a collective correction in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets. In particular, Bloomberg's forecast that non-farm payrolls this Friday will far exceed expectations (reaching 260,000 instead of the expected 163,000) has further exacerbated market concerns, and last night's decline can be seen as an early response to these unfavorable factors.

These economic data and the changes in adjusted interest rate cut expectations are the main reasons for the market's sharp drop last night. Keep your mind, the bull market will definitely come. #BTC

The big and small non-farm data hits the jackpot, Trump takes office on the 20th, and the Fed cuts interest rates on the 30th. How to plan?

The small non-farm data tonight (21:15) and the number of initial jobless claims (21:30) are expected to show a slowdown in job growth, which may be seen as a signal to support the Fed's rate cut. If the big non-farm data on Friday meets expectations, it will further consolidate the possibility of a rate cut.

Trump's inauguration: Although cryptocurrency is not Trump's main topic, his policies have long-term effects on the crypto circle, especially in terms of regulation and openness. He is expected to promote policies that are favorable to the crypto market, but will not lead to a surge in wealth in the short term.

Fed rate cut: The decision to cut interest rates in the early morning of the 30th will depend on the performance of economic data this month. If the data supports a rate cut, there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which may provide liquidity support to the market.

Market reaction: Even if the data is positive, the market may experience abnormal fluctuations, just like the sharp drop last night and the wash of the copycat. But this behavior does not rule out creating space for the new government and completing the main turnover to prepare for future market conditions. #BTC走势分析

The U.S. Department of Justice is allowed to sell $6.5 billion in Bitcoin seized from Silk Road

On December 30, 2024, a U.S. federal judge ruled to allow the Department of Justice to sell 69,370 Bitcoins (about $6.5 billion) seized from the dark web Silk Road, ending years of ownership disputes, despite Battle Born Investments claiming to own these Bitcoins through bankruptcy estates and losing the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit. The decision was announced two weeks before the new President Trump took office. The Supreme Court refused to hear the relevant ownership dispute, paving the way for the government to sell, and Trump's promise not to sell government-held Bitcoin was frustrated.

After the news was exposed, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $940,000, and then rebounded, falling 1.93% on the day. Although it seems to be bad news on the surface, many people generally believe that the market can quickly digest the selling pressure of this batch of Bitcoins and believe that this is a good time to buy at the bottom. It can be seen that everyone is optimistic about the trading opportunities brought by Trump's coming to power. I hope the market can quickly absorb the selling pressure and recommend buying on dips. #BTC走势分析

Last night's market was like a roller coaster ride. It was soaring in the clouds the previous second, and fell to the bottom in the blink of an eye. This wave of "flash crash" really caught people off guard, especially those long-term holders of high-multiple contracts, especially the players of altcoins. It is estimated that many people did not sleep well tonight. Bitcoin fell by about 6%, and some altcoins were directly beaten back to the lowest point on the 20th, and some even hit new lows.

Originally thought that the interest rate cut in January was a foregone conclusion, but Wall Street suddenly changed its direction and lowered its expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 25 years. This news was like a depth bomb, instantly detonating the panic in the market, causing many high-leverage long orders to be forced to close. Now it seems that under the tight funding situation, weak coins have become weaker, while strong coins have become stronger. Don't think that some currencies will not fall again if they have fallen too much - it turns out that many altcoins can't find the bottom at all.

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart is forming a double bottom pattern, but it is hard to say whether the current price is the bottom, and it is also full of uncertainty to restore the bullish trend in the short term. Therefore, players must be careful when adjusting their positions. You can add some positions appropriately, but don't go all in. After all, in this market, no one dares to guarantee what will happen tomorrow. It is better to leave some room for yourself. What if the market continues to decline? The one who laughs last is the real winner.
#山寨季何时到来？

Trump's "hush money" case drama: Can the president-elect also be exempted from guilt? The judge said "No Way!"

Early this morning, Judge Alan Gesmer of the New York Court of Appeals in the United States poured cold water on President-elect Trump and rejected his request to postpone the sentencing process of the "hush money" case. Trump's legal team claimed that as the incoming president, Trump should enjoy the same immunity from criminal prosecution as the current president, but this view was ruthlessly rejected by the judge.

There are less than two weeks left before Trump enters the White House again. If the sentencing cannot be completed before January 20, then once he officially takes office, the presidential immunity may temporarily put the case on hold until he leaves office. The court insisted on sentencing as planned on January 10, while Trump and his legal team said they would continue to look for ways to postpone or cancel the sentencing.
#特朗普当选概率上升 #BTC走势分析

How to layout the AI ​​track to be more popular?

Recently, more and more new projects have emerged in the AI ​​track, and attention is not enough
In fact, every wave of popularity is like this

🐷1. The main funds are on the earliest, most focused, and most mature projects:

Virtual AI16z Swarms: The first two have large market capitalization and are mature. Virtual has the top agent AIXBT, and Swarms still needs time to verify.

Reason: Mature projects are more stable, and the growth may not be as rapid as new projects, but the risk is lower.

🐷2. Capture the big trend band and pay attention to the listing signals of the three major trading platforms:

Binance, Upbit, Coinbase listing is a phased signal.

Operation suggestion: When there is a short-term surge, you can sell by band operation, and keep holding at other times.

Background: AI is the main narrative. As long as BTC does not enter a bear market, funds will continue to flow in.

🐷3. Beware of traps in new projects and treat new projects with caution:

Renovation projects (such as those that used to do other things and now switch to AI) are mostly traps, the purpose is to attract your USDT.

Participation suggestions: Only use 1% of the funds for new projects, and focus on the targets mentioned.

Logic: Mature projects have accumulated over a long period of time, and new hot projects are often eager for quick success.

🐷4. Key targets and layout

Core targets:
Three major platforms: Virtual, AI16z, Swarms.
Monomer: AIXBT.
Infrastructure: Cookies.
Clusters such as games are included in "others" and can be paid attention to moderately.

Understand the logic, know the target, nothing more than how to get on the bus, I take the approach of getting on the bus if I like it. Among the three major platforms, pay more attention to Swarms

Swarms: The team is strong, Wang Feng is a programmer, and the code quality is guaranteed.

🐷Five. Expected landing

Expected landing: the agent can be landed, but I don’t know whether this landing is good or bad

But AIXBT has already come out, and I don’t care about other projects for the time being. I may stop after a few months of speculation, and it may be a good time to sell when it is really landed.

Investment should be cautious, one day in the currency circle is ten years in the human world.
#BTC走势分析
#AIAgent热潮

2025 On-Chain Forecast:

🐷#AIAgents /AI Meme total market value will surpass the peak period of NFTs, with a certain token expected to break 10 billion USD.

🐷Pump Fun track will see the emergence of 3-5 new projects.

🐷#Base ecological tokens at least 5 will be listed on Binance.

🐷Hyperliquid spot multiple projects will reach a market value of 1 billion.

🐷RWA segmented track will significantly break out, attracting more attention and investment. #BTC走势分析

Let's talk about my recent positions and the logic behind my optimism

#AIAgent Track

(1) GOAT —— The 'King of Memes' in the Bitcoin world, GOAT's status in the AI Agent track is similar to that of Bitcoin memes. It is not only the leader among meme coins but also enjoys extensive community support and high market recognition. Holding GOAT is like holding the 'gold of the meme world', as stable as an old cow.

(2) Virtual AI16z —— The 'Twin Stars' of Ethereum and Solana, the combination of Virtual and AI16z is akin to Ethereum and Solana in the last bull market; they are the pillars of the ecosystem. The Virtual ecosystem has already secured its leading position, while AI16z injects unlimited potential into the entire track through its strong investment background and technological support. One is responsible for innovation, and the other for capital, working together to drive industry development.

(3) Game ELIZA —— The 'New Darling' of DeFi and L2, Game ELIZA's position is similar to that of DEX or L2 solutions in the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems. It not only offers a gamified experience but also has great potential in decentralized finance (DeFi) and Layer 2 scalability. Imagine earning profits while playing a game; it’s simply the ideal choice of 'earn while you play'!

#hype Track

HYPE = The decentralized version of FTX + FTT + SOL chain from the last bull market

The HYPE track is literally the decentralized version of FTX, FTT, and the Solana chain from the last bull market! It combines the high liquidity of trading platforms with the advantages of on-chain governance, while avoiding the risks of centralized exchanges. HYPE not only provides trading functionality but also introduces more decentralized governance mechanisms, allowing the community to truly have a voice. If you missed the last bull run's FTX and Solana, don't miss out on HYPE this time!
#BTC重返10万 #AIAgent热潮

“The RMB must be determined by the United States, or more precisely, it must be determined by me!”
This was stated by Trump’s newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent during an interview with Fox News.

What an audacious claim; no wonder he was chosen by Trump, they all like to be abstract.

This statement seems to ignore that four years ago, the Eastern power already declared that “the RMB exchange rate is determined by market supply and demand.” Such words really make one marvel at his “unique insights”; he hasn’t even grasped the dollar yet, and he’s already concerned about the RMB.

The U.S. may have always dreamed of making the Eastern power's economy less independent, but the reality is that the Eastern power has a vast domestic market and a complete industrial chain. Even if the international market sneezes, they can remain as stable as a mountain and even steadily promote the internationalization of the RMB. Bessent seems to have missed this key point.

If he insists that “the U.S. can control the RMB exchange rate,” then economic cooperation between China and the U.S. is likely to turn into a “sausage war,” which would also be a disaster for global economic recovery. If they really forcefully manipulate the exchange rate unilaterally, trade friction and a cold war atmosphere are not to be trifled with. Does Bessent really have this ability? I’m afraid even he doesn’t believe it himself.

After all, if he could really control everything, the China-U.S. trade war wouldn’t have lasted this long.
#SUI🔥 #BTC走势分析

Do you still think that BTC at 100,000 USD each is expensive?

In fact, there’s no real expensive; it just depends on what you’re comparing it to.

At the end of 2024, BTC will be 100,000 USD each, but who remembers that at the beginning of 2024, BTC was only 40,000 USD each? In just one year, it has doubled in value.

If you bought it early on, isn’t that much better than working every day? I can’t imagine how much BTC could be worth in the future at this growth rate—150,000? 200,000? Or 300,000?

The reason this market can develop so quickly is due to the continuous influx of new funds, and we need to have stable cash flow to hoard coins.

However, not all cryptocurrencies have high liquidity and widespread recognition like Bitcoin. Some once-popular altcoins with lower liquidity, like the now-trendy Memecoin, despite their market cap rising, have seen their remaining liquidity diluted by new listings on Binance and OKEx.

In contrast, it might be better to invest early in AI or meme coins, as they can at least easily achieve a low-price doubling.

Invest wisely; after all, a day in the crypto world is like ten years in reality. #BTC走势分析

What? Trump will implement the largest tax cut in American history? What benefits does this bring us?

There are definitely benefits.

This big package not only loosens the wallets of cryptocurrency investors and makes trading more active, but also attracts traditional finance and tech giants to engage in innovation like a magnet. The tax exemption for tips is a great boost, making it even more enjoyable for everyone to treat others or give rewards with cryptocurrency.

In short, this tax carnival is expected to ignite the cryptocurrency market, sparking new hopes for long-term prosperity! #比特币走势观察 #SUI🔥

Why does the government prohibit cryptocurrency speculation, and why is Sun Yuchen unharmed?

The government prohibits cryptocurrency speculation to prevent financial risks, but it does not define speculation as illegal, mainly restricting the channels for capital inflow and outflow.

Sun Yuchen has not been arrested because his actions are on the legal edge, and investors must bear their own risks.

Speculating on cryptocurrencies is a personal investment behavior, with profits and losses borne by the individual. Despite the high risks, the cryptocurrency circle has promoted the development and innovation of blockchain technology, and the decentralized nature encourages more participants, forming a prosperous ecosystem.

In the future, blockchain may bring revolutionary changes, making it worthwhile to plan ahead and enjoy the dividends. #BTC走势分析

There are only 21 million Bitcoins in total, and 3.7 million have already been lost. Currently, there are approximately 16 million in circulation.

Moreover, with large holders like MicroStrategy holding a significant amount of chips, even if they occasionally sell a bit, the quantity is limited. Therefore, the situation of supply not meeting demand is almost a certainty.

If the Bitcoin strategic reserve bill is passed after Trump takes office, many countries are likely to follow suit. If sovereign funds from various countries start buying, the supply-demand relationship will surely cause Bitcoin prices to soar.

As for how high it can go? No one can predict that.

However, in the next 5-10 years, Bitcoin may have tenfold growth potential.

As long as there is no economic recession in 2025, during Trump's four years in power, Bitcoin may experience a long-term bull market akin to gold.