Introduction:
The Open Netwotk (TON) was originally named Telegram Open Network. It was created by the Telegram team in 2018. After being accused by the SEC of unregistered securities issuance during the ICO era, the Telegram team paid a fine to reach a settlement and abandoned the project, which was continued to be developed and operated by the community TON Foundation. Although it has been separated from Telegram in name, the actual connection between the two is still direct. TON has always been the only public chain officially supported by Telegram and continues to be deeply integrated with Telegram. TON will continue to benefit from Telegram's huge user base and traffic entrance. Telegram will build a decentralized digital ecosystem with freedom and privacy by supporting TON.

Market Overview
Since the third quarter, the assets that performed better: RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and XAUUSD (gold price) and SPF (financial stocks) and US bonds, the assets that performed worse: Ethereum, crude oil, US dollars. The almost flat pie, Nasdaq 100.

For US stocks, the current market is still in a bull market, and the main trend is still upward. However, the trading environment will lack performance themes in the last few months of the year, and the upside and downside of the market will be limited. The market continues to revise down Q3 earnings expectations:

The valuation has recently adjusted back, but it rebounded quickly, and the PE of 21 times is still much higher than the 5-year average:

Total stablecoins
Despite the recent sluggish market trading and low sentiment, the total amount of stablecoins on the exchange is still slowly accumulating, and has now reached the highest level since this cycle, at approximately US$168 billion.

BTC.D hits new high, touching daily pressure level
BTC.D has reached a new high since this round of market, touching the daily pressure level, and may experience a daily level correction. If BTC can maintain a relatively mild shock, the cottage has the opportunity to outperform BTC on a daily level.

CME Open Positions
CME BTC short position liquidation has turned around. Overall, the liquidation is still lower than expected. Arbitrage funds will gradually withdraw after the interest rate cut.

The most volatile week of 2019
Although U.S. stocks were basically flat for the week, the market was a real roller coaster.
Panic selling on Monday, retaliatory rebound on Tuesday, technical selling on Wednesday caused the market to fall again, and the decline in the number of first-time unemployment claims on Thursday, which had a general influence, triggered the market's impulse to buy the bottom, although this data is not worth being overly excited about because the trend of increasing unemployment claims is obvious. The market continued to rebound on Friday, but the amplitude slowed down.
Over the past week, the stock market and the crypto market have been very closely linked. In the media, the two core themes were the U.S. recession and the unwinding of the yen carry trade, but I personally think these are two "false propositions." In fact, the real panic was very short-lived, and the usual situation of selling everything, including bonds and gold, when a crisis breaks out did not occur.

Market Overview

In the past two weeks, digital assets (especially Bitcoin) have performed well. The second largest digital currency Ethereum has given up its previous gains after the ETF was launched, which is similar to the trend after the BTC ETF was launched.

As we reminded at the meeting two weeks ago, the market showed a clear style switch: large-to-small, cyclical-to-defensive. In the US stock market, small-cap stocks withstood the pressure of the large market. RUT rose 3.3% against the trend. Traditional large-cap stocks performed steadily. The Dow Jones 30 rose 1%, and the financial stock index SPF rose 1%. The utilities and healthcare industries were also relatively strong (Goldman Sachs continued to be optimistic about the financial sector, with more upside potential than downside). Technology stocks performed the worst, with the NYFANG+ (top ten technology stocks) index plummeting 8%, the Nasdaq 100 plummeting 6.8%, and the SPX, which has a slightly lower technology content, falling 3%.

Author: Cycle Capital
Review of hot market topics
[Recent macroeconomic background tailwind]
Inflation is cooling down across the board: The last two months have shown a clear downward trend. The US CPI turned negative for the first time in four years in June, and the core year-on-year growth rate hit a three-year low. According to GS forecasts, both will be in a downward channel in the next two years. Housing inflation is slowing down at an accelerated pace.
Employment market: The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has increased by about 10% since April, indicating that the employment market has weakened slightly, but overall it remains in a relatively balanced and stable state.
Economic Surprise Index: It has been at a low point in the past two months, indicating that recent economic data are often lower than expected.

Author: Lisa, LD Capital
I. General Election Overview
On June 28, Beijing time, Biden and Trump held the first debate of the 2024 election. Trump's performance was significantly superior, while Biden's poor performance triggered widespread concerns about his mental competency at his advanced age. . Trump's approval rating surged after the debate. At the same time, Trump also has an overwhelming advantage in swing states, leading in the seven main swing states (North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania).

Project Description:
Lista DAO is an open source liquidity protocol for earning yield on collateralized crypto assets and borrowing their decentralized stablecoin lisusD (also known as “Destablecoin”).
It utilizes a dual token model (lisUsD and LISTA) and extends the MakerDAO model to provide a decentralized, unbiased, collateral-backed stablecoin while leveraging decentralized liquidity assets.
Created by DeFi and smart contract experts, ListaDAO aims to position lisuSD as a leading stablecoin by integrating proof-of-stake rewards and yield assets, with a focus on decentralization, capital efficiency, and broader blockchain adoption.

Author: Cycle Capital
Since the start of the US election, a series of election-related meme tokens have emerged. After the Trump campaign team publicly supported cryptocurrency donations, TRUMP was the main representative, with a market value of $775 million at its peak. Due to Biden's more conservative attitude towards crypto, the market attention to his related tokens is relatively low. After Trump was convicted of the hush money case, the price of Trump-related tokens fell, while Biden-related meme tokens rose. During the election, who will become the president of the United States and public statements on crypto attitudes affect the price trend of related tokens.

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Author: Alfred @GametoRich, Cycle Capital
1. What is a Rune?
At the beginning of 2023, the BRC-20 standard proposed based on the Ordinals protocol set off a wave of construction and speculation around BTC assets, and promoted the hot attention and capital influx of BTC second-layer, Defi and other ecological infrastructure, which played a positive role in the long-term development of the BTC ecosystem. However, the hype of BRC-20 also brought about Bitcoin network congestion and redundant data. In response to this, Casey Rodarmor, the creator of the Ordinals protocol, proposed the Runes protocol in a blog in September 2023, which will build a replaceable token protocol based on BTC UTXO, which is the "Runes Protocol".

Project Description:
Notcoin is a Telegram-based game where players earn in-game currency by clicking on the "coins" in the picture.
The game was developed by Sasha Plotvinov, the founder of Open Builders. It is not a well-known AAA game. It is a small game similar to some social applications of Web2.
Its highlight is that it is backed by the $Ton public chain (market value has long been in the top 20). Notcoin currently has more than 30 million participants, with an average daily active user base of 5 million. In addition, Telegram has more than 900 million monthly active users, with more than 2.5 million new users registering every day.

Project Description:
BounceBit is a Bitcoin re-staking protocol and native BTC re-staking chain, developed as a sister company of Bounce Finance. It adopts a dual-token staking system secured by Bitcoin and BounceBit tokens, introducing a unique combination of DeFi and CeFi yield mechanisms, enabling BTC holders to earn income through native validator staking, the DeFi ecosystem, and the CeFi mirror mechanism.
project financing:
At the end of February 2024, BounceBit completed a $6 million seed round of financing, led by Blockchain Capital and Breyer Capital, with participation from dao 5, CMS Holdings, Bankless Ventures, NGC Ventures, Matrixport Ventures, DeFiance Capital, OKX Ventures and HTX Ventures. Individual investors include EigenLayer Chief Strategy Officer Calvin Liu. Details: https://twitter.com/bounce_bit/status/1762874894520656120

Last week, the global risk asset market rose across the board, with SP500 +0.5%, Nas100 +1%, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 up 4.7% and 0.6% respectively, and Nikkei 225 and Korea Composite Index both up 0.8%. Most of the major government bond yields fell, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell sharply by 17bp to 4.50%. Due to the release of a number of key data and policies, the market's uncertainty about interest rates has temporarily settled. The market's expectations for a possible slowdown in inflation have increased, providing the Federal Reserve with room to cut interest rates, and the market has thus entered a round of valuation repair/oversold rebound.

Things that reassured the market included the lower-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, ISM manufacturing PMI, service industry index, dovish signals from FOMC and Powell, Apple and Amazon's 100 billion buybacks and strong earnings, and Hamas and Israel's peace talks mediated by major powers. The only slightly disturbing thing was the ECI labor costs and the Ministry of Finance's quarterly bond issuance that exceeded expectations.

Last week, there were many economic information such as the earnings reports of large companies, GDP data and inflation indicators that the Federal Reserve pays attention to. Investors are faced with a massive influx of information and need to constantly reprice their assets. The market also showed large fluctuations, and the overall N-shaped trend ended up higher. Especially driven by technology stocks (Microsoft and Google's good earnings reports), the stock market has recovered half of the losses in April. After falling 5.4% last week, the Nasdaq 100 index rebounded 4% this week, and the S&P small-cap Russell 2000 rose by more than 2%. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by less than 1%.

This article briefly introduces the projects launched in Binance Launchpool Phase 53#Renzo

Project Description:
Renzo is an Ethereum re-staking protocol based on Eigenlayer. It simplifies the complexity of re-staking on EigenLayer and provides users with a more convenient and liquid way to participate.
Renzo allows users to deposit Ethereum and in the future can use Liquidity Restaking Tokens (LST) to exchange for ezETH, a Liquidity Restaking Token (LRT) that can be used in DeFi applications. In short, Renzo is like a convenient bridge that allows users to interact with the EigenLayer ecosystem more easily.

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Author: Alfred, Duoduo
1. What is Intention?
Since Paradigm explained the concept of intent in "Intent-Based Architectures and Their Risks" published on June 1, 2023, "Intent-Centric" has become an important concept and development direction of Web3.
1. Definition of Intent
In Paradigm's definition, "Intent is a set of signed declarative constraints that allow users to outsource transaction creation to a third party without giving up full control over the transaction parties." Simply put, intent is goal-oriented, weakening or ignoring the implementation process. For example, I want D and am willing to pay A as a cost, without the need to perform the A-B-C-D process operation, and outsourcing the intermediate links to a third party. In abstract terms, the declarative paradigm is centered on intent, while Web3's previous transactions or operations were mostly imperative paradigms.

Market Overview
The Nasdaq and S&P indices fell sharply in the past week and fell below their respective 50-day moving averages, experiencing their worst week in more than a year. After the past three weeks of retreat, the US and Japanese stock markets have basically given up half of their gains. The performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 this year has been lower than that of the CSI 300:

Last week, technology leaders were the biggest losers, with double-digit declines (even higher than Bitcoin). Nvidia fell 14.5%, breaking through the 50-day moving average and the key support level of $800, ARM fell 31%, AMD fell 22%, Broadcom fell 12%, AMD fell 11%, and Tesla fell 14%. In contrast, consumer goods and utilities sectors performed best, falling only 0.3%.

Author: Jaden, Jill
1. Basic introduction
Solana is a PoH-based Layer 1 blockchain that features high energy efficiency, high transaction speed, and low fees. It was founded by former Qualcomm executive Anatoly Yakovenko in 2017. After the FTX crash, the price of SOL tokens and the entire ecosystem suffered a fatal blow. For more than a year, the Solana ecosystem has been in an extremely depressed state.
At present, the Solana ecosystem has restored its vitality, mainly for the following reasons:
1) The overall market recovery. According to Artemis data, on October 1, 2023, the market value of stablecoins in the blockchain market was 130B. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the market value of stablecoins increased to 135.5B. As of March 26, 2024, the number of stablecoins in the market increased to the current 156.5B. The market value of stablecoins on Solana increased from 883.9M to 97.5B, a growth rate of approximately 170,000%.

U.S. stocks had their best start to the year in five years in the first quarter
Last week, technology stocks were generally under pressure, digital currencies rebounded to a certain extent, and related stocks also performed positively:

But as of the end of March, European and American stock markets have risen for five consecutive months for the first time in ten years. The S&P has risen by more than 10% for two consecutive quarters. The Nasdaq lagged slightly behind in the first quarter of this year, but it also rose by more than 9%, mainly due to the The performance of some big technology companies was dragged down. Tesla fell nearly 30% in the first quarter, Nvidia rose 80%, and Apple fell 10%.
According to Goldman Sachs PB data, TMT stocks (information technology + communication services) were continuously net sold in the last three trading days before the end of the quarter, accounting for approximately 75% of the total net sales of single stocks in the United States last week. It currently accounts for 29.1% of the total net exposure to U.S. stocks, which is down from the peak of 32.5% in mid-February and the levels in the past one and five years.

作者 Alfre、LD Capital

一、背靠9亿月活的TON
The Open Netwotk(TON) 原名 Telegram Open Network，由 Telegram 团队在 2018 年创建，在ICO时代受到SEC指控进行了未经注册的证券发行后，Telegram 团队支付了罚款达成和解并放弃了该项目，由社区TON Foundation继续开发与运营。虽然与Telegram在名义上进行了脱离，但是二者的实际联系依然直接，TON一直是Telegram明牌官方支持的唯一的公链并持续与Telegram深度集成，TON将持续受益于Telegram巨大的用户基础和流量入口，Telegram将通过支持TON来构建一个具有自由，隐私的去中心化数字生态。
Telegram以坚持言论自由和保护隐私的主张吸引了全球众多用户， 其注册用户超过 13 亿，月活用户（MAU）近 9亿。同时Telegram在Web3用户获取极具优势，得益于宽松的言论氛围和监管环境，几乎所有 Web 3.0/Crypto 项目都在 Telegram运营社群，且 Telegram 的用户分布集中在亚洲、欧洲、南美和中东地区，散户特征较为明显，点对点支付需求旺盛，是较为理想的 Web3 待转化群体。
近期，除了Telegram 创始人 Durove 向表示正在考虑进行IPO的打算之外；Durove在个人频道里明牌宣告TON代币的官方出售渠道；Telegram 广告平台将正式向近百个新国家的所有广告主开放，为了确保广告支付和提款的快速和安全，将专门使用 TON 区块链，内容创作者将能够兑现他们的 Toncoin，或者将其重新投资以推广和升级他们的频道。这些举动将加速TON网络的发展，真正拓宽区块链的用例和场景。

二、病毒式传播的Notcoin
Notcoin 是一款免费且易于使用的 Telegram 游戏，其玩法主要是人们通过点击手机屏幕来赚取金币，自 2024 年 1 月 1 日上线以来，人气激增，当前该游戏的参与人数超过3000万，日均活跃达到500万，成为Telegram上数据排名第五的频道。

根据 TON 基金会的声明和对外接受的采访透露，Open Builders 创始人Sasha Plotvinov和她的团队在构建 Notcoin。Open Builders 是一个致力于为 TON 区块链上的项目提供融资的组织。它与 Tonstarter 相关，该平台去年成功筹集了 150 万美元的种子资金，专门用于支持基于 TON 区块链的项目。此外，TON的官方推特也多次转发Notcoin相关的推文，Notcoin的官方推特当前具有150万粉丝。

3月初，Notcoin推出了一项功能，允许精英玩家将大量游戏内货币转换为NFT代金券，这些代金券可以在其代币正式发行之前进行交易。玩家可以选择用1000万或1亿游戏币换取优惠券NFT。当前该NFT已上线TON 生态 NFT 交易平台 Getgems进行提前交易和定价，当代币正式在链上发行后，NFT可兑换为代币。
据Notcoin的游戏代表此前表示，代币生成活动以及后续向玩家的空投活动将于 3 月底或 4 月初进行。

三、相关数据对比
据27日数据，Notcoin NFT约有50万个在流通，当前价值为一张10M=9TON（按5U计算）,市值约为2250万美元，总交易量为200万TON，交易额约为1000万。

自3.15开始，Notcoin NFT的交易量开始活跃，25日近期最高交易2.5万张，成交均价为10M=6.7TON，成交额为83.75万美元，26日交易2.1万张，成交均价为10M=9.9TON，成交额为103.95万美元。成交最高价出现在3.13日10M=66TON，最低价出现在3.20日 10M=3.7TON。

Bybit 在本周一宣布，自世界标准时间周一上午 10:00 起，基于 Telegram 的 meme 币 Notcoin ($NOT) 将在其盘前交易平台上上市。 据27日数据，bybit盘前交易的报价为10M=60–90美元，较NFT市场交易具有不小的溢价。

对比当前TON生态排名第一的meme币FISH，其当前市值为3900万，24小时交易量为255万。Notcoin在NFT交易阶段，市值和交易量约为FISH的1/2.

四、结论
当前通过meme币的拉涨成为公链生态重要的破圈的途径，TON生态当前整体处于比较早期的阶段，但背靠Telegram巨大的用户量，发展潜力毋庸置疑，相对于生态项目TVL的发展，meme带动热度提升成为短期更容易实现的方法。Notcoin项目综合来看，得到了TON官方明牌支持且具有巨大的用户基础，有机会成为破圈的meme币选择。但风险在于当前代币经济还不明确，已有超过2000万美金的NFT在二级上线前流通，在上线时具有不小的抛压存在，但基于基本面认为该项目在中期具有潜力。