白鲸Crypto

$BTC Eight consecutive rises, is it a bull market or a scam?
Recently, this market has been a bit exhilarating yet somewhat unsettling. When Bitcoin doesn't make a sound, it suddenly surprises everyone with an impressive eight consecutive daily gains. The formation of eight rising candles indicates that a bull market is coming according to technical analysis. Is this a market reversal or just a trap set by the big players to lure you in?

【Sentiment】
Not long ago, there was fighting and inflation, and the sentiment index showed extreme fear, with retail investors buying a large number of short positions at the bottom. As a result, those institutions and whales saw a significant inflow of funds in March, these old foxes specifically picked up corpses below 65000, and then turned it around with an eight consecutive rise, directly creating a short squeeze.

【Technical Analysis】
The eight consecutive rises clearly show that the bulls have taken over the market, and at the key resistance levels, the bears are almost no match for the bulls. The momentum is very strong, a typical signal of trend reversal. The price has now touched the 73000–75000 range, which previously trapped a lot of people in spot trading, equivalent to a dense graveyard. The technical indicators are overbought and overheated, so if a small bearish candle appears without volume in the short term, that's a normal technical adjustment. Don't rush to short.

【Macro Analysis】
Recently, there has been unrest in the Middle East, and logically, during such times, everyone would buy gold as a safe haven. However, gold has not risen this time, indicating that the bullish factors for gold have essentially played out. There has been intermittent capital outflow from gold, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, directly benefits. The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in inflation, while Bitcoin has achieved eight consecutive gains. Bitcoin's ability to resist risk is weak, but it is definitely a good inflation hedge.

So is it a bull market or a scam?
Institutions are investing real money, geopolitical factors are assisting, and the technical formation is indeed beautiful. However, rebounds in a bear market are mostly fleeting glimmers, as the big players first squeeze the shorts, heat up the market, attract retail investors to take over, and then execute a double kill of both long and short positions, leaving the scene gracefully. We estimate that the cost for the market makers in this wave is around 65000, and a significant rebound could be about 20%, with an expected target around 80000. If it can't break above 80000, the next move will be down to the starting point or even lower. At this time, it's important to stay clear-headed; if something feels off, restrain yourself and just watch. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than anything else!
#比特币突破7.5万美元

Buffett's wealth curve is not impressive because of the endpoint of 122.8 billion, but because he has never gone to zero at any point. Many people in the crypto world pursue overnight doubling, while Buffett pursues eternal survival; existence itself is a form of high compound interest.

I can understand the rise in oil prices, but what the hell is going on with someone selling vegetable oil? 🤨
#国际油价突破100美元

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It is said that AI is the fourth industrial revolution, but both China and the US face challenges in AI.

The difficulty for AI in the US lies in its poor power infrastructure. Over the past year, due to the enormous power consumption of tech giants in Silicon Valley building computing centers, electricity prices for American residents have skyrocketed, forcing the tech giants to solve their own power issues instead of competing with ordinary people for electricity.

For China, the challenge in AI is that domestic chips have not kept up with the global AI industry wave, and production capacity has not improved. Chinese AI relies on Western chips, which not only face supply chain issues but are also expensive, competing for resources with electric vehicles, smartphones, robots, and other industries, leading to mutual depletion and low economic efficiency.

#AI

At what percentage of loss would you choose to cut your losses?

Today I was chatting with a friend, saying that the economic environment is bad. I said the financial environment is the same. I kept listening to him complain and was thinking about how to comfort him and make him feel better. But in the end, I said that the strong never complain about the environment... He said tmd he is not strong, he is weak. He not only complains about the environment but also complains about the strong, because the environment is made worse by the strong... I had no fuck to say, but I couldn't refute what he said, hahahaha #加密市场反弹

This year, I want to see how many people in the crypto world are going bankrupt. The main characters are all those types—resumes that can dazzle the eyes, starting salaries of a million, and posting papers every few days in their social circles, the so-called "chosen ones." As soon as they enter the crypto world, they directly transform into "the chosen leeks." They come in with their heads full of macroeconomics, quantitative models, and DCF valuations, confidently thinking: I graduated from a top university + Ivy League + CFA + master's/PhD, my logic is unbeatable, how could I be harvested by a bunch of rich whales who can't even spell in English? 😄 Then the market gently slaps them in the face: Classmate, there’s no GRE here, and GPA doesn’t matter, what matters is whether you understand the subject of human nature. The result? While they are in the group being sarcastic, saying: with this level, dare to call themselves a giant whale? They probably can't even understand the white paper, haha. Meanwhile, they silently gamble their last bit of capital on a guaranteed rising altcoin, only to watch it plummet by 95%. Their accounts gracefully slide from seven figures to five figures, and finally, gracefully return to zero. The worst part is, they still maintain their last bit of dignity: This is just a temporary drawdown; my fundamental analysis is fine; the market is irrational. At this moment, looking at their balance: 0.1 USDT. The market loves to educate those who think their IQ crushes everyone else while being unable to even press the stop-loss button. Here, having a degree is not a plus, but a liability. It will make you more confidently jump off from the highest point. So, brothers, it's 2026; read a few less research reports and pay more attention to K-lines and your own greed. Don't let the market turn you from a top student into a bottom student. After all, the only fair thing in the crypto world is: it doesn’t care where you graduated from; it only cares that you are currently graduating from being broke.

Happy Year of the Horse!