白鲸Crypto

$币安人生
Just now, 11.4 million dollars worth of tokens were transferred on-chain. Retail investors think that the big players are hoarding tokens, but it is more likely that they are inducing retail investors to FOMO buy in and take over. You might think that a 22% control rate is okay, but this is just what the big players want you to see. The low-position chips that are not visible have increased nearly 10 times from the bottom to the peak. Brothers, it's time to stop. The big players are already offloading, and we have reached the slaughter line. Be sure not to get harvested.

$BTC Trend Forecast
Scenario 1: Ceasefire Agreement Breakdown (Probability: 60%)
On the eve of April 21, due to Israel's continuous actions in Lebanon, the market is likely to anticipate a "failed negotiation". Relying on the toll station in the Strait of Hormuz, the rigid buying power brought by Bitcoin payments is highly likely to push the price into the range of 78000-80000 next week.

Scenario 2: Ceasefire Extension (Probability: 30%)
Both parties take a step back and agree to extend the observation period by another two weeks; the sentiment will quickly cool down, and the price is likely to retrace to the chip consolidation area of 68000 - 69500, clearing out highly leveraged long positions and entering a high-level fluctuation.

Scenario 3: Reaching a Substantial Open Agreement (Probability: 10%)
Iran cancels the toll station, and the U.S. partially lifts sanctions (extremely low probability). The "toll fee necessity" for Bitcoin instantly disappears, and the price will undergo a sharp devaluation correction, testing the support level of 62000.
#美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡

Hyperliquid's largest long position on-chain, taking profits by reducing the position by 220 million USD, with a remaining unrealized value of 130 million USD, expectations for the future market are not too high

Do you think the US-Iran negotiations will be successful?

I believe everyone should not be deceived by the ceasefire. The shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz has only recovered to about 5% of pre-war levels, and giants like COSCO have yet to resume their routes. This ceasefire feels more like a halftime break, as there are fundamental contradictions in both sides' core demands.

The US demands that Iran completely denuclearize and unconditionally open the Strait, while Iran has set up toll booths in the previously free and open Strait of Hormuz, demanding payment in Bitcoin to try to bypass the US dollar settlement system. Iran aims to gain living space by controlling this energy choke point, and the US will certainly not sit idly by while its sovereignty is challenged.

The current $73,000 $BTC already includes the rigid buying pressure from the toll booth demands. If the negotiations break down around April 21 in two weeks, and there is again conflict in the Strait, Bitcoin may benefit from safe-haven sentiment; however, if negotiations unexpectedly succeed, the probability of that is relatively low, and the safe-haven premium will quickly fall.
#伊朗拟征收霍尔木兹加密货币通行费

Now $BTC is the global energy settlement currency. If the monthly toll of 800 million dollars must be paid in BTC, it creates a huge, rigid leveraged demand. This violently supported purchasing power is more solid than any institutional entry and is even more frightening.

In the cracks of this era, being awake is more important than being diligent. The US-Iran war has entered its 29th day, and Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. You need to understand that this is not just about a few people dying; energy costs are the most lethal, which means that the rate cut the Federal Reserve originally planned for 2026 may turn into a mirage, or even be forced to continue raising rates to curb inflation. If interest rates rise rather than fall, the stock market and highly leveraged assets will be revalued. If you are fully invested in the market, then you are merely a harvested leek. At a time when liquidity may be exhausted, cash is always king.

Iran has now lost its core leader and is in domestic turmoil; its only bargaining chip is to drag everyone down with it. It does not confront the US military head-on, but rather strikes Saudi oil fields and blocks shipping routes. This will cause the global supply chain to fracture again. The current market has not fully digested the expectation of a 'long-term war'; many still fantasize about peace talks within weeks, which is unrealistic. If peace talks break down and we enter a prolonged war of attrition, the world will enter a 'stagflation' scenario. At this time, all paper wealth will shrink, and only control over energy and underlying productivity will have a voice.

At this juncture in 2026, there are many opportunities to earn 100%, but the risk of losing 100% is greater. During the war, any rumors about 'peace talks' will lead to a market rebound, but as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not truly opened, this rebound is merely a trap for the unwary. Don't waste your bullets in these small cycles. Rogers predicted that 2026 is a year of financial crisis, and it now appears that the US-Iran conflict is most likely the wings of a black swan. The smoke of war will eventually dissipate, but only those who walk out of the smoke with bullets will qualify to share in the post-war dividends. Every bit of restraint now is the compound interest for a future turnaround!
$BTC

$BTC Important Summary

1. Bitcoin has recently risen for eight consecutive days and is now fluctuating between 68700 and 74000. There is heavy selling pressure between 74000 and 76000, with both those previously trapped wanting to break even and those who have made profits wanting to exit. Additionally, MicroStrategy has purchased a considerable amount of Bitcoin near 70194, providing a support level for the market.

2. This week, the Federal Reserve just held a meeting and set a tone. Powell did not release any particularly hawkish remarks, and the market believes there is a high probability of one or two interest rate cuts in the second half of this year. Moreover, Bitcoin seems to be somewhat decoupled from the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ and, at times, resembles gold's movements more closely. The narrative of digital gold is being brought up again. 🤣

3. The energy war is so fierce now, and Bitcoin consumes a massive amount of energy annually. If electricity prices rise, the market will perceive that Bitcoin's costs are also increasing and may gradually be considered a type of “energy synthetic asset.”

4. At the end of the month, there is a hearing in Washington regarding cryptocurrency legislation. If it passes smoothly, the entry of large institutions would be a major positive; however, if it fails again, the market may feel confused due to unmet expectations.

5. Bitcoin is currently in a critical position, neither rising nor falling, supported by institutions below and pressured by selling orders above. Whether it rises or falls next depends on whether good news can come from the regulatory hearing at the end of the month.

#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突

$BTC Eight consecutive rises, is it a bull market or a scam?
Recently, this market has been a bit exhilarating yet somewhat unsettling. When Bitcoin doesn't make a sound, it suddenly surprises everyone with an impressive eight consecutive daily gains. The formation of eight rising candles indicates that a bull market is coming according to technical analysis. Is this a market reversal or just a trap set by the big players to lure you in?

【Sentiment】
Not long ago, there was fighting and inflation, and the sentiment index showed extreme fear, with retail investors buying a large number of short positions at the bottom. As a result, those institutions and whales saw a significant inflow of funds in March, these old foxes specifically picked up corpses below 65000, and then turned it around with an eight consecutive rise, directly creating a short squeeze.

【Technical Analysis】
The eight consecutive rises clearly show that the bulls have taken over the market, and at the key resistance levels, the bears are almost no match for the bulls. The momentum is very strong, a typical signal of trend reversal. The price has now touched the 73000–75000 range, which previously trapped a lot of people in spot trading, equivalent to a dense graveyard. The technical indicators are overbought and overheated, so if a small bearish candle appears without volume in the short term, that's a normal technical adjustment. Don't rush to short.

【Macro Analysis】
Recently, there has been unrest in the Middle East, and logically, during such times, everyone would buy gold as a safe haven. However, gold has not risen this time, indicating that the bullish factors for gold have essentially played out. There has been intermittent capital outflow from gold, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, directly benefits. The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in inflation, while Bitcoin has achieved eight consecutive gains. Bitcoin's ability to resist risk is weak, but it is definitely a good inflation hedge.

So is it a bull market or a scam?
Institutions are investing real money, geopolitical factors are assisting, and the technical formation is indeed beautiful. However, rebounds in a bear market are mostly fleeting glimmers, as the big players first squeeze the shorts, heat up the market, attract retail investors to take over, and then execute a double kill of both long and short positions, leaving the scene gracefully. We estimate that the cost for the market makers in this wave is around 65000, and a significant rebound could be about 20%, with an expected target around 80000. If it can't break above 80000, the next move will be down to the starting point or even lower. At this time, it's important to stay clear-headed; if something feels off, restrain yourself and just watch. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than anything else!
#比特币突破7.5万美元

Buffett's wealth curve is not impressive because of the endpoint of 122.8 billion, but because he has never gone to zero at any point. Many people in the crypto world pursue overnight doubling, while Buffett pursues eternal survival; existence itself is a form of high compound interest.

I can understand the rise in oil prices, but what the hell is going on with someone selling vegetable oil? 🤨
#国际油价突破100美元

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It is said that AI is the fourth industrial revolution, but both China and the US face challenges in AI.

The difficulty for AI in the US lies in its poor power infrastructure. Over the past year, due to the enormous power consumption of tech giants in Silicon Valley building computing centers, electricity prices for American residents have skyrocketed, forcing the tech giants to solve their own power issues instead of competing with ordinary people for electricity.

For China, the challenge in AI is that domestic chips have not kept up with the global AI industry wave, and production capacity has not improved. Chinese AI relies on Western chips, which not only face supply chain issues but are also expensive, competing for resources with electric vehicles, smartphones, robots, and other industries, leading to mutual depletion and low economic efficiency.

#AI

At what percentage of loss would you choose to cut your losses?