So far this weekend Bitcoin is looking strong above $66.4k, with every 4 hour candle closing above that level, with $67.3k proving to be strong resistance. We should not ignore this bearish divergence that has been developing over recent days- as BTC has been making higher highs, the RSI has been making lower highs. Having said this, I would not be surpised to see a push up to $68k first before a correction as there is still some unswept liquidity in that area. Potential volatility as we head into the weekly close.
Coins showing volatility this morning: ZEC, BAND, RSR.
Bitcoin is showing signs that $62.7k (Monthly Open) will become 4 hour support. After this morning's rejection of $65k we now have 4 hour supply at $64.4k, just under the Monday High, which is likely to be significant resistance.
We are starting to see Mt Gox move significant amounts of BTC around, so there is a little uncertainty from this FUD. Be aware that this could cause some bearish momentum and we do have some key levels below that have not been retested since the breakout- most significantly $61.4k (Prev Week High & 4hr EMA200.)
The Monday range this week is $60.6k - $64.8k.
Coins showing volatility this morning: ZEC, AAVE, MKR.
For the first time in over a month Bitcoin is trading above the 4hr EMA200 (yellow line.) We have seen the bullish momentum continue throughout the weekend, and the price is now 15%+ up from our perfect bottom snipe last week. The price now looks to be consolidating around $62.7k monthly open level.
For now I am happy to let the Monday range develop, and looking for a reaction on a retest of the 4hr EMA200. A word of warning- BTC has created a huge CME gap this weekend and if this is to be closed it means a move down to $57.9k.
Let's keep the run going and have another great week of trading!
Coins showing volatility this morning: ZEN, XRP, UNFI.
Looking at the 4hr chart we can see Bitcoin is making another move towards $59.1k (DM VAH.) If we get 4 hour acceptance above this then we could see a move back over $60k happen very quickly. The German government is out of Bitcoin now, so the selling pressure there has stopped, but we still have to be cautious of low weekend volumes and the fact that $58.2k is still daily resistance.
Although it has been a slow week for the market, we have taken profit on every trade so I do not want to throw that away by being reckless over the weekend, but I am actively looking for solid opportunities.
Coins showing volatility this morning: XLM, HOT, COTI.
$58.2k is still the resistance (Prev Month Low, Daily EMA200 and now Monday High.) All the time that this is strong daily resistance then we have cannot rule out a move lower- perhaps a sweep of the Monday Low. Jerome Powell is speaking later today so this can cause some volatility. I am watching the charts for the next opportunity to continue the great run of trades....
Monday range this week- $54.2k - $58.2k.
Coins showing volatility this morning: STMX, PEOPLE, EGLD.
Key Events to keep an eye on this week! (WC - 08/06/2024)
A few events to keep an eye on again this week:
Tuesday & Wednesday 9/10th July
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies - 14:00 UTC
Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to appear before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday. He will first answer questions at a U.S. Senate session before he visits the Republican-controlled House the following day.
Investors will be looking for further clues on when the Fed plans to cut interest rates. Powell recently said the fight against inflation has made progress, but more is needed before the Fed can introduce rate cuts.
Thursday 11th July
CPI + Core CPI - 12:30 UTC
CPI - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas.
Core CPI - The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.
Expectations:
CPI (Y/Y)
Expected = 3.1% Previous = 3.3%
CPI (M/M)
Expected = 0.1% Previous = 0.0%
Core CPI (M/M)
Expected = 0.2% Previous = 0.2%
Friday 12th July
PPI + Core PPI - 12:30
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller.
PPI m/m
Expected = 0.1% Previous = -0.2%
Core PPI m/m
Expected = 0.1% Previous = 0.0%
Let’s see how the market reacts to these events. And let’s have a great week!🤝
Overnight we saw Bitcon drop down to the mid $54k area where I had my limit order. A great reaction so far but no surprise to see the resistance is still $58.2k (Prev Month Low & Daily EMA200.) As this level was such a long term support it is normal to see it flip into strong resistance. A daily close above $58.2k and I will have more confidence of the bottom being in.
If we continue to reject, not only have we got a significant block of orders at $45k, but there are also increasing bids in the $40k area. Although a move this low seems unlikely, we cannot ignore growing liquidity there.
A great start to the week, let's make it another big one!
Coins showing volatility this morning: GAL, LDO, TRX.
Bitcoin continued to recover yesterday, but as expected we have seen a rejection from $58.2k which is the Previous Month Low and Daily EMA200. For now I am happy to wait for a sweep of a little lower or a reclaim of $58.2k. If we accept back above this level then I expect the price to push back towards $60k where I can see there is a growing amount of sell orders.
Coins showing volatility this morning: ONT, DYDX, ANKR.
Another brutal day for Bitcoin with the price dropping over 10% since yesterdays open, losing the daily range and also the daily EMA200 for the first time since October. I mentioned yesterday that the price could drop below $55k because I was watching liquidity building... most didnt think it was possible but we have event tested below $54k this morning. Right now we are seeing a daily demand zone below acting as support.
What next? If the selling pressure is not over then we have liquidity in the $52k-$50k region... I am also seeing significant orders building at $45k so this cannot be ruled out!
3 out of 3 winning trades yesterday in the Premium Group. Extra nice to profit during bad conditions so let's see what we get from here!
Coins showing volatility this morning: ZEN, DYDX, LDO.
The agressive sell off continues on Bitcoin, and the todays candle close becomes very important. If we close below $58.2k (Prev Week Low & EMA200,) then we would have lost the daily support level and range for the first time since February. This would also be the first loss of the daily EMA200 since February! If that happens, I am keeping my eye on areas below $55k, huge liquidity is building there over the past 24 hours and we know what that means!
We have done very well to make nice profits through this dip, and we have ideas in place ready for the next move! Let's see what we get today, but remember the US markets are closed for Independence Day.
Coins showing volatility this morning: ENS, XLM, LDO,BTC,ETH,BNB
The idea shared yesterday played out- acceptance above $62k and a quick move to $63.4k. This is where we have resistance at the Previous Week High and it is also the June VAL. So far we have seen a 1% rejection from this level. Whilst we wait for the Monday range to develop, keep these 2 key levels in mind- We have a CME gap below at $60.5k, and a very large amount of sell orders above at $65-$66k.
New month, let's make it an amazing one!
Coins showing volatility this morning: YFI, CRV, EGLD.
Bitcoin has seen an increase in volume over the last couple of hours, but we are still trading within the choppy range that we saw mid-week. After accepting back above $60.7k, this has been tested as support and given a nice reaction but still no break of $62k. Tonight is the weekly close/ Monthly close and Q2 close, so watch out for some volatility and a potential break of range today. If we break above $62k today there is a chance of a fast move up to $63.4k.
Coins showing volatility this morning: UNFI, PEOPLE, BLZ.
Over the last few days we have been watching the Bitcoin buy wall under $60k. Be aware that this morning these orders are no longer there. This is not uncommon with big orders cancelling over the weekend. We have once again seen $60k hold strong as it was tested again during the night, but we have not seen enough volume to see any significant bounce so far. The trendlines on the chart show that the price action is compressing and very soon we will get a bigger move. Until Bitcoin makes a decision we will continue to look at altcoin set ups.
Coins showing volatility this morning: CHR, BAND, TRX.
Key Events to keep an eye on this week! (WC - 24/06/2024)
Let’s take a look at the key news to keep an eye on this week:
Thursday 27th June
Final GDP - 12:30 UTC
GDP measures the monetary value of final goods and services—that is, those that are bought by the final user—produced in a country in a given period of time. It counts all of the output generated within the borders of a country.
Expected = 1.4% Previous = 1.3%
Friday 28th June
Core PCE Price Index - 12:30 UTC
This is the change in prices of goods and services excluding energy and food.
Expected = 0.1% Previous = 0.2%
PCE is a good indication of current inflation throughout the economy. The fed will look closely at these figures and use it to make decisions on their monetary policy.
Let’s see how the market reacts to these events. And let’s have a great week!🤝
Very low volume so far this weekend, and we are seeing Bitcoin move within less 0.5%...$64.2k -$64.5k is the range! If this level holds, and we see an increase in volume heading into the weekly close then I think that $65k will be retested today. This is the DM VAL/ Prev Week Low, but I do expect this to be resistance. If we get a strong rejection there, and a weekly close below $65k, then I think there is a good chance that we move even lower next week.
But I am hoping for a couple more profit hits before the week closes!
Coins showing volatility this morning: MTL, UNFI, BLZ.