Bitcoin Price Analysis: 2 Targets for BTC Following the Crash Below $50K and Subsequent Bounce

After a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has seen a sharp decline, breaking through the key support level of its previous major swing low of $53K.
This price movement indicates a possible shift towards a bearish market structure.Technical Analysis
A detailed examination of Bitcoin’s daily chart reveals a significant downturn driven by widespread fears of potential economic turmoil. Since Friday, increased selling pressure has led to a sharp decline in BTC’s price, causing it to break below the 200-day moving average at $61.1K and its prior major swing low at $53K.
This breakout is a strong bearish signal, suggesting a potential shift in market structure towards bearishness, as it marks a new lower low on the daily timeframe.
This movement indicates that sell-side liquidity, which was resting below the $53K level due to stop-loss orders from earlier long positions, has been activated, triggering a long-squeeze event.
With the perpetual markets cooling down and deleveraging, there is now a greater likelihood of a mid-term consolidation phase. Therefore, in the coming days, Bitcoin’s price is expected to fluctuate between the $53K and $60K levels.The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, the intensity of the sell-off is evident as Bitcoin’s price cascaded through several critical support zones, including the $60K psychological level and the crucial $53K mark.
However, this sharp decline has effectively flushed out most of the long positions in the futures market, leading to a temporary halt in bearish momentum when the price reached the lower boundary of a multi-month wedge pattern around $50K, causing a slight rebound.
Given the impulsive nature of the recent downtrend, the market may require a corrective phase in the near term.
The key targets for this correction lie within the Fibonacci retracement levels, specifically between the 0.5 ($62K) and 0.618 ($59.5K) levels. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to remain trapped within the $50K to $62K range, potentially consolidating sideways until the next significant move occurs.

Bybit, one of the world's leading crypto exchanges, has achieved a monumental milestone, surpassing $100 billion in daily trading volume earlier this week, according to the company's Wednesday press release.
The new achievement represents a fourfold increase compared to the platform's daily average of 25 billion, cementing its position as the world’s second-largest crypto exchange, said Bybit.
The platform's trading system also boasts high performance, with a Trading Per Second (TPS) capacity of 800,000, up from the previous 500,000, Bybit stated.
The surge in trading volume was driven by strong activity across various products, including perpetuals, futures, spot, and options, the company noted. According to Bybit, its robust platform infrastructure contributed significantly to this growth as well as its commitment to providing clients with an excellent trading experience.
With support for over 20 languages, Bybit serves a global user base of more than 39 million registered users. This growth highlights the platform's global appeal.
“This record-breaking trading volume is a testament to Bybit's dedication to providing a world-class trading platform that meets the evolving needs of our users and growing community, said Joan Han, Sales & Marketing Director at Bybit. "We are committed to maintaining our position as a leading cryptocurrency exchange by continuously enhancing our offerings and prioritizing user satisfaction.”

At the Bitcoin Nashville Conference, the loudest and most thunderous applause came from Republican candidate Donald Trump’s promise to fire Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler. Republicans have taken on crypto on as a pet issue, but Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, doesn’t want this to become a partisan issue.
“My number one concern is that crypto becomes politicized and becomes a partisan issue in ways that, at the very least, slow and perhaps even worse, threaten its continued growth and development," Grewal said during an interview at the Asia Blockchain Summit in Taipei, emphasizing the need for bipartisan support for policy modernization.
Part of the need for change in the U.S. comes from a reliance on antiquated frameworks, like the Howey Test, to address the reality of twenty-first-century finance.
“There needs to be an understanding that the Howey Test was developed in the context of an Orange Grove real estate in Florida in the 1940s and 50s," he said, arguing that applying the Howey Test “blindly and mechanically” to blockchains and crypto does not make practical sense.
“Precedents, even from the Supreme Court, have always been recognized as applying in particular contexts and needing to adapt to new technologies and issues that emerge in markets and in the economy more generally,” he said. “It's important to respect precedents and to use the wisdom garnered from decades of applying them in all sorts of other contexts without being beholden to them in a way that just doesn't make practical sense.”
Asia doesn’t have the same binding constraints as the Howey test, and Grewal appreciates how regulators are writing the rules from the ground up while listening to feedback from the industry.
After all, Hong Kong’s path to creating its digital asset license framework – and allowing crypto ETF issuers to offer in-kind redemptions, which the SEC prohibits – began with an announcement in the fall of 2022 that authorities in the city were reconsidering their stance on the topic.
"What is most inspiring to me here in Asia is that there's a focus on discrete issues and almost no focus on ideology," he said. "There is an interest in understanding the technology, where the industry is headed, and our experiences…because they want to learn and take the best, while avoiding the worst."
In contrast, within the U.S. it has been a challenge to have “meaningful dialogue with large chunks of the government when it comes to crypto and policy," Grewal opined. However, he remains optimistic about America, as both major political parties are beginning to recognize the significance of crypto.
"Crypto, at the end of the day, it's code. There are plenty of other issues in the United States and all over the world for us to disagree on. We should be able to agree on what code does and how it operates," he concludes.

Peter Brandt: Take This Bitcoin Chart 'Seriously'

Renowned trader Peter Brandt recently shared a chart that appears to provide crucial hints regarding potential future fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin. Because it offers valuable insights into possible future prices, Brandt claims that this chart is essential for understanding Bitcoin's binary price possibilities.
The chart that HTL-NL first released suggests that Bitcoin may have already peaked. This conclusion is reached by combining the relative strength index (RSI) with multiple technical indicators. The chart shows that the RSI continuously falls at every new high, indicating that the buying momentum has been declining over time.
The potential for Bitcoin's short-term growth may be limited as a result of this price action's declining elasticity. It is further supported by the chart, which shows the occurrence of a larger cycle top that the price of Bitcoin may face significant resistance in the future.

According to this pattern, the cryptocurrency's bullish momentum has mostly run out, leaving it more vulnerable to downside pressure. Brandt has shared the chart to highlight the importance of "binary price possibilities."
Anyone trying to grasp the possible binary outcomes for the price of Bitcoin, in his opinion, needs to understand these patterns. Basically, the chart suggests that Bitcoin has topped-out and the current cycle is exhausted. It dramatically raises the possibility of a reversal or a prolonged correction.
This outlook is also reflected in the state of the Bitcoin market right now. The price of BTC continues to fluctuate significantly in both directions as the market has not settled yet. A number of macroeconomic variables and regulatory changes are having a major impact on the market. Institutional investors remain key players nowadays and, luckily, we are seeing a recovery of institutional inflows in the market, suggesting a potential continuation of an uptrend.