In the past two days, I reviewed the oscillating technical indicators, on-chain indicators, and moving average indicators. Coincidentally, they all point to the possibility of a big change in September and October. Replicating the 519 trend and the cycle theory 2020 September-October market also point to September-October.

At the same time, so many indicators are showing that the possibility of a change in September-October is very high, and the selected big market may last for a long time. If the current short structure is not destroyed and then bullish again after October, and BTC also falls below 50k at the same time, basically the price and oscillating indicators can confirm the bear market.
At present, ETH and ALTs are already in a bear market in my indicator system, but BTC still has no confirmation of a bear market.

Once the bear market is confirmed, the trading mindset will change. It is no longer a long mindset, but a search for a dead cat rebound/long-term empty cottage entry position.
It is not to say that it must be September-October. Now most of the conditions for the bull market are met, and we still need to continue to observe.

Still the same point of view, further bullish needs to stand above 61500, further bearish needs to fall below 58000, the current general direction is bearish, but not short, bottom position spot.
Still the same sentence, less prediction and more facts, maybe this time BTC falls to 40,000, it can still rise again, depending on the market trend.

I have been in the circle for several years, and I have never seen such poor liquidity in the past six months! Why has it deteriorated?
There are many reasons:
Financing difficulties make it difficult for companies to obtain funds, further affecting the liquidity of the market;
High transaction costs inhibit investors' willingness to trade, resulting in a decline in market liquidity;
Foreign capital withdrawal leads to capital outflow from the market, affecting liquidity;
Changes in the macroeconomic environment will also affect market liquidity, such as rising interest rates and slowing economic growth.
In addition, there is another major reason: blockchain funds are dispersed, and the popularity of various chains dilutes the hot money in the secondary market.
The market is becoming more and more standardized, and we can no longer see the crazy gains of the last bull market. I wonder how many big guys in the last bull market will be washed off in this round of bull and bear markets? The lack of liquidity has made the entire market somewhat powerless, and it also requires us to be more rational about investment, rather than blindly following the trend.
I hope the market will regain its vitality as soon as possible and usher in a healthier development again.

Trading, 30% technology, 70% psychology.
There are many trading theories and methods in the market, but learning more techniques cannot make trading leap forward;
Having a peaceful mind, calm analysis and order opening are the key to real profitability.

Trading is like hunting in nature, a game of waiting for prey to come to the door. If you chase the K-line, it is like a leopard chasing a magpie blindly, and you may not catch up even if you run exhausted;
Only when the magpie relaxes its vigilance and is in a terrain with no retreat, the leopard will suddenly attack, and there is a high probability of taking the prey.
However, before that, the leopard needs to observe and wait patiently for a long time.

The secret to making money in the cryptocurrency world:

1. Be patient and wait, the price will only rise 5% of the time.

2. Don’t watch the market and reduce blind operations.

3. Overcome fear and buy at low prices.

4. Do a good job of position management.

5. Don’t do short-term trading, stick to the medium and long-term.

6. Don’t borrow money to speculate in cryptocurrencies, invest with spare money.

7. Buy high-quality coins at the bottom and ship them in batches for the long term.

8. Invest in value, accumulate wealth, and get rich slowly.

Today's thoughts on eating watermelon: What is cognitive difference
I have always strictly controlled sugar intake. I didn't dare to eat watermelon before
because I thought the sugar content of watermelon must be very high
until I saw a report saying that the sugar content of watermelon is actually only 6%, which is very low among fruits
Not only that
Watermelon is rich in water and has many benefits for the urinary system
(very effective for female urethritis and male prostatitis)
Watermelon is rich in vitamin C and has an antioxidant effect on the skin
Watermelon is rich in fiber and is beneficial to gastrointestinal motility
Watermelon has many functions: prevent constipation, lower blood pressure, improve blood circulation, enhance immunity, and relieve muscle soreness.
You see, I didn't dare to eat such a good fruit for nearly 5 years, so often what we think is not necessarily right, this is cognitive difference.

I have seen too many such cases in my trading years. Sudden luck and wealth will not make a person live better, unless he calmly withdraws or quits the investment industry, buys a house and lives a stable life. There are such people, but I have seen very few. Otherwise, they will definitely think that their ability is very good, and continue to invest like this. In the end, many people will lose money based on their strength. However, the market's sudden wealth effect is indeed too tempting, and it is difficult to control yourself without a certain amount of concentration.

Talking about the so-called total market value of personal holdings at the peak of the bull market, floating profits, and tens of millions of assets are everywhere, but there are still very few assets with tens of millions, not to mention tens of millions, even millions of people have lost. So, don't take luck as strength.

As an investor, you must be soberly aware that there is definitely a luck component to making money, and sometimes luck even accounts for the main component, but losing money must be based on strength. If you don't recognize this, then it is easy to summarize luck into some self-righteous rules for making money, which is terrible, because this is one of the fundamental reasons why many people can't make money in the end (not make money).

This round of bull market is very difficult. Bitcoin keeps hitting new highs, while many altcoins have fallen below the new lows of the bear market. According to past experience, with the rise of Bitcoin, altcoins will start one after another, hot sectors will start to rotate, and various small-cap currencies will rise dramatically. However, this time the situation was unexpected. Some low-circulation currencies did not continue to rise after being unlocked.

Although traditional investors prefer to choose old currencies for investment, even junk coins BSV have achieved a 5-fold increase in this round of bull market. The so-called DeFi blue chip projects Aave and SNX have increased by less than 3 times, and even some leading projects have increased by less than 5 times, and have even fallen below new lows.

In the face of such a cruel market, we need to optimize our investment strategies instead of relying on past experience. Whether it is derogation or praise, it should not be the basis for our investment. Investment requires focus and continuous attempts. Only in this way can we stand out in the market and become real winners. Because only by constantly making progress and practicing can we find that we are no longer who we were at the beginning.

"To make a profit in the cryptocurrency circle, you must learn to withdraw cash"
In the cryptocurrency circle full of variables and opportunities, whether you rely on spot trading to accurately judge the market trend and reap rich returns, or rely on superb skills and keen intuition to win huge profits in contract trading, you need to keep in mind a key point-learn to withdraw cash.

When we are lucky enough to catch a wave of market in spot trading, the asset figures grow rapidly; or when we win great success in contract trading with courage and wisdom, the joy and sense of accomplishment are undoubtedly intoxicating. However, if these book profits are not converted into real funds in time, everything may be just an illusory digital bubble.

Learning to withdraw cash is a rational decision, and it is also a respect for one's own efforts and wisdom. Withdrawal means turning risks into actual returns and uncertainty into certainty. It allows us to truly enjoy the results of investment, improve the quality of life, and realize the actual value of wealth.

Imagine if we don't withdraw cash, the market suddenly reverses, and the profits we once made disappear in an instant. What kind of regret and pain will that be? The ever-changing cryptocurrency circle does not allow us to be negligent or careless. Withdrawing cash is to draw a perfect end to your wealth journey and accumulate valuable experience and capital foundation for the next investment.
In the cryptocurrency circle, let us always keep a clear mind and remember the importance of withdrawal. Don't be confused by temporary numbers, and be brave to pocket profits, so that you can move forward steadily in this challenging field and achieve real wealth growth and life goals.

#Ignore the noise#

It is easier said than done to take a scoop from the vast sea, because there will be someone who touches your heartstrings at every stage;

It is not someone else's problem, because there are always currencies that outperform you in the market, which is an inevitable event; knowing that it is inevitable but still anxious and irritable, doesn't it mean that the problem is not with others but with yourself?

There are many ways to fight a war. The old saying is that speed is the most important thing in war, but there is also the saying of building a strong camp and fighting a stupid battle. Is it easy to defend without attacking? It is not easy at all. Every time you watch a TV series, you will know that it is easy to have problems if you only defend without attacking for a long time, because it is human nature not to be willing to wait and not to be patient, so defending without attacking is as difficult as attacking, and both are fighting.

Mature traders often have strong self-healing abilities.

This ability allows them to recover quickly from failure after failure and seize opportunities for success at critical moments.

In the cryptocurrency world, failure may be the norm, but success at critical moments is often enough to make up for past setbacks.

Therefore, learn to heal your wounds, stay calm and patient, so that you can go all out when the next opportunity comes.

Long and short positions are about to face a turning point
After a strong rebound (49000-62745), the market is entering a volatile phase again, and long and short positions are facing a new turning point again. An upward breakthrough can directly point above 64000, and a downward break is the beginning of a downturn.
Pay attention to the gains and losses of the lower rail 58000 mark, and pay attention to the gains and losses of the upper rail 60000 mark.

Stick to the belief in the leader

1. Always study the mainline leader and always participate in the mainline leader.

2. Don't be blinded by one leaf, you must have a big picture of the leader.

3. Don't participate in non-mainline, don't participate without the leader!

4. Always believe that the leader has many lives. If it is easy to die, it is not the leader.

5. Always buy the leader at the point where the divergence turns to consensus, and buy the leader when it is not consistent.

6. Choose the leader and find the buying point of the leader, it is always like this.

7. Never be afraid of heights, because the leader is the safest!

The central trend direction of Bitcoin is very difficult to predict at this stage. In recent times, it has either risen beyond expectations or fallen beyond expectations. It is not friendly to technical players and it is difficult to get the entire wave. The operation difficulty coefficient is also much greater than the previous two bull markets. After the wide range of shocks in recent months, I am generally conservative about the current market situation. The operation frequency and positions have also been greatly reduced. I will consider increasing my positions only when there is an extreme panic opportunity. The certainty will be relatively high!

This wave is okay. The big cake fell again. It is hard to say whether it will form a double bottom structure. This wave of rebound is too strong, directly killing from 49,000 to 62,745. The market technical sentiment is now in the central stage. Technically, if it does not break through 60,000 points, you can boldly look at it. If it effectively breaks through 60,000 and tests the high point of 62,745, then you can't blindly look at it. The idea of ​​​​the second exploration needs to be reversed. But I personally prefer that there will be a bottom structure. Only by walking on both legs can you go further.

Just now, a large short order was hit, which should be the largest since the bull market returned at the end of 2022.

This market is really a meat grinder market, killing both long and short positions without mercy.

Do you say it has returned to the bull market? I think it is a very bad script, there is no bottom accumulation, and it is a direct V-reversal. If it fails to exceed the previous high again, the killing and shock will be more severe.

I still hope to have a real trend, rather than such shocks.

Let me tell you a possibility.

The fourth upward surge in 2019 (now the fourth upward surge in 2024), using 4 main rising waves of 4h K, directly pulled up 30 points, is it a bullish return?

In addition, 2019 is also the Fed's interest rate cut cycle.

If it cannot pull up the 70k of the third upward surge, and the daily line has been distributed horizontally, it is difficult to say that it is a bullish return.

Of course, we can't go short here. Compared with the upward surge in 2019, there is still room. Let's observe. This is a trend that has never been seen in history.

At the beginning of the year, many feedbacks were,
I want a hundred times in this round, and after a few months, I want ten times,
Now the feedback is that I want to get my money back.
It is a good thing to recognize the reality, stop fantasizing, calm down,
and practice internal skills well. The 10,000-hour rule is the truth in any industry.
It is just like fitness. When you just enter the circle, you hope that you can practice like X God,
but after practicing for a long time, you know:
Oh, it turns out that such muscles are injected with steroids + light and shadow effects.
The side effect of steroid injection is that men become eunuchs and women become men.
This thing can improve yourself, but the side effects are also great,
and you also have to train strictly + strict diet,
it must be done day after day, year after year.
Then why do you think that you get XX buying and selling indicators,
and then you can always win? What are the side effects of using XX buying and selling indicators?
You will always rely on this algorithm and logic opaque indicator,
only get a psychological comfort, but can't learn anything,
and if you lose, you just think that this indicator is not good, it is none of your business.
But when you don’t have indicators,
you can’t even output the long and short conclusions and entry and exit logic by yourself.
Because you trade for 8 hours a day, review for 5 minutes, and study for 1 minute.
The 10,000-hour rule is valid in any industry.
Which champion of the Paris Olympics was not forged after years and decades of hard work?
Which one just entered the industry today and won the championship in half a year or a year?

Successful traders must do these four things
Occasionally make a small loss, occasionally make a small win, occasionally make a big win
But never make a big loss
Trading must understand
No stop loss means death
Greedy means death
Blind entry means death
Frequent operations mean death
Stop loss does not equal loss
This is a sentence that most people don’t understand
This is just the normal loss in trading
Stop loss in trading is the norm
It’s like a machine in a factory
When you make a valuable product, there will be machine loss
It’s a truth. People who don’t stop loss
Can’t trade will be finished sooner or later
Resolutely stop loss, embrace stop loss
Dare to stop loss is a mature trader
Must have the characteristics
No one’s horse is stop loss
Avoid frequent trading

The sectors with strong wealth creation effect in this wave of rebound are: AI sector, Solana sector

AI sector (TAO, NEAR, RENDER)

Solana sector (SOL, JUP, WIF)

Inscription sector: (SATS)

Subsequent sectors to focus on: POW sector (KAS, ALPH, SMR)

Taking advantage of the negative news of plus token tonight, looking forward to the second bottoming opportunity and boldly entering the market in batches
#BTC

In the final analysis, whether a project can make money or not does not depend on the model most of the time, but on whether there is a strong project team, whether there is a large amount of funds in the early stage and whether they are willing to accept the initial selling pressure of the market. Those with a big vision will take it, and those with a small vision will just run away, and this is the most difficult point to consider in the speculation process.