Ten behaviors to avoid for survival in the crypto world
Frequent short-term trading (Overtrading)Hazard: Getting addicted to 5-minute charts, not only are the fees astonishing, but it will also make you lose direction in the market's fluctuations.Livermore's advice: "Money is made sitting, not running."Full margin high leverage (High Leverage)Hazard: Leverage amplifies greed but also reduces your margin for error to zero. Just a 1% reverse fluctuation can lead to liquidation.Advice: Leverage is a tool, not a lifeline; never go all in during high uncertainty.Blindly following 'shitcoin' projects (FOMO Buying)
The crypto market has crashed, which coins should we pay attention to for bottom-fishing?
1. HYPE Rebound Logic: It is one of the few tokens that rose against the trend during the February crash. As the absolute leader in decentralized perpetual contract platforms, its trading volume and protocol revenue soar whenever market volatility is high, exhibiting strong hedging and anti-drawdown properties. 2. SUI Rebound Logic: Viewed by institutions as a 'Solana competitor' in this cycle. During the market crash, its TVL (Total Value Locked) remained stable, with a retracement significantly smaller than other Layer 1s. Once the market stabilizes, it is usually the preferred choice for capital inflow. 3. XRP Rebound Logic: A new narrative for established coins. Recent compliance progress and increased institutional adoption of XRP have led to a strong 'V-shaped' reversal after a sharp decline in early February, making it one of the most resilient rebound altcoins.
Today, Bitcoin dropped to a low of 59800, and the panic selling before and after the US market has clearly intensified. I plan to phase my deployment in the three ranges of 50,000, 45,000, and 40,000. It is not about betting on a rebound, but rather a comprehensive judgment based on cycles, structures, and risk-reward ratios.
First, historical cycle patterns.
Before each major bull market in Bitcoin, there will be deep retracements and long periods of consolidation. The current decline is close to a mid-cycle adjustment level, typical of an 'emotional bottom + capital turnover period'.
Secondly, the risk-reward ratio is extremely attractive.
In the area below 50,000, the downside is limited, but if it returns to the bull market high or even sets a new high, the profit potential far exceeds the risk, making it suitable for phased left-side deployment.
The peak time of the last round was: November 8, 2021. The time of the lowest point is: December 14, 2022. In fact, it just happens to be about a year! It's not the 2-3 years that everyone thinks. It took almost three years for the lowest point to rise to the highest point. So overall it is a four-year period from the high point in 2021 to the high point in 2025. 15500 divided by 69000 is about 23%, a drop of nearly 3/4.
What will happen this round? Where is the lowest point? From a timing perspective, it may reach a relatively low point around September next year. But this is just a rough estimate and may not be very accurate. However, because human nature does not change, there is a little bit of reference basis.
The lowest point of the last round was 15000, and then it halved.