JamesS9781

21Posts

JamesS9781

Quem busca o saber encontra o caminho para a liberdade.

Open Trade

Occasional Trader

4.6 Years

4 Following

47 Followers

102 Liked

10 Shared

Posts

Portfolio

PINNED

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Article

Payroll loans against FGTS are absurd: Understand why

The government launched in March 2025 the so-called "Worker's Credit", a line of payroll loans that uses up to 10% of the FGTS balance as collateral and deducts installments directly from the payroll via e-Social. In theory, it is sold as "cheap credit" for CLT workers, with interest around 2% per month (about 23-25% per year). In practice, it is an absurd that only benefits banks and puts the worker in a financial trap. Let's break this down.
The FGTS is your money, earned with sweat, but the government has always held it, yielding a miserable 3% a year plus TR – a return that loses badly to inflation, projected above 4% in 2025. Now, with this new modality, they offer you the chance to use your own money as collateral for a loan with much higher interest than the fund’s earnings. It’s like renting your house to yourself and still paying a lot for it. Who profits? The banks, of course.

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Look at this chart, before and after.

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I sold at 120k and I am going back to buy in the range of 87k. In my assessment, the risk is very well balanced. Considering Bitcoin's history, it is reasonable to expect that if the bear market really begins, it will revisit the peak of the previous cycle — which usually becomes the bottom of the current cycle — something between 69k and 65k. In your opinion, how many more percent can BTC drop?
Link da Marcação de Trade

30%

61%

40%

10%

Mais de 50%

29%

31 votes • Voting closed

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When did you buy it at this price?

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So, let's remember.

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A rare opportunity has arisen for Ethereum: the RSI has entered the typical bear market zone — something that usually only happens after Bitcoin’s all-time high. An excellent time to accumulate and seek significant appreciation in the medium to long term.

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If we observe the history of Bitcoin, after breaking a previous high and reaching a new all-time high, it usually does not fall back below that level. This would indicate that, even in a future Bear Market, the price would not drop below the support that exists between 69 thousand dollars and 65 thousand dollars, which was the peak recorded in 2021.

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Study the BTC cycle, do DCA, move to a cold wallet, and be patient.

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BTC dominance reaches February high.

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Bullish

Ethereum at an interesting technical point: the RSI is in the oversold zone, the 2018 high is being respected as support, and a possible reversal pattern is starting to form. Additionally, the price of ETH has fallen below the realized price — a sign that most investors are at a loss, but historically this is an area where whales usually start accumulating. We will closely monitor the closing of the next week.

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Article

OM Token Plummets 90% in Hours: Manipulation or Inevitable Collapse?

The OM token (MANTRA) fell nearly 90% in a few hours on April 13, 2025, plummeting from a peak of $6.33 to $0.58. This sudden collapse wiped out between $3.5 and $4.5 billion in market capitalization, leaving investors shocked and seeking explanations. Below, I detail what happened, the possible causes, and the impact of this event.
What happened?
The drop was abrupt, occurring in less than an hour, according to reports. The token, which was among the most valued in the market, lost most of its value in a short period, generating panic among investors. Furthermore, the project's team deleted the official Telegram group of Mantra, cutting off communication with the community during the crisis.

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Bullish

BTC is above the previous peak, testing the trend line (TL) and still within an ascending widening wedge. On the monthly chart, the price remains above the 20, 50, and 100 period moving averages, reinforcing the bullish trend. The RSI is in neutral territory, not indicating overbought or oversold conditions. Additionally, the Hash Ribbons indicator recently signaled a buy on the weekly chart, which strengthens the optimistic outlook. A 'Morning Star' reversal pattern is also beginning to form on the monthly chart. In the medium and long term, the trend is clearly bullish.

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Funny how everyone is waiting for the correction but when it comes, everyone panics, and I keep buying strongly.

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Article

Why is self-custody advantageous?

Keeping your bitcoins under your own custody means using a wallet that you control, such as a software wallet (e.g., Electrum) or a hardware wallet (e.g., Trezor). This avoids relying on third parties, like exchanges, which can go bankrupt or be hacked. You have full control, privacy, and security, without risks of freezes or losses in case of problems with the platform.
The FTX case as an example
In November 2022, the FTX exchange collapsed after revealing poor financial management, with users unable to withdraw their bitcoins. Investigations showed that customer funds were misused, and although there are reimbursement plans, the process is slow and uncertain. This highlights how leaving bitcoins on exchanges can be risky.

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Article

S&P 500 Drops Nearly 6% with Trump's Tariffs, but Bitcoin Rises 1%: Understand the Possible Causes

Today, the financial market witnessed an intriguing event: the S&P 500 plummeted nearly 6% after the announcement of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while Bitcoin (BTC) defied the trend and recorded a 1% increase. This contrast challenges the common expectation that negative events in the stock market would also affect risky assets like cryptocurrencies. In this article, we explore the possible causes of this divergence, analyzing what might be behind Bitcoin's resilience on a day of economic turmoil.

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Everything in order?

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I love seeing the market bleeding, my money going away, and opportunities arising, am I some kind of psychopath? 😂

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Article

Has the Bitcoin Bull Run Ended or Is There Still Ground Ahead? #Analysis

Bitcoin is going through a moment of uncertainty. After reaching a peak above $108,000 in December 2024, the price corrected and today, March 25, 2025, is hovering around $84,000 (according to recent market data). This raises the question: has the bull run ended or does it still have fuel to burn? We will analyze on-chain signals, the macro context, and market sentiment to understand what may lie ahead.
1. On-Chain Indicators: What Do the Data Say?
MVRV Z-Score: This indicator compares BTC's market value with its "realized" value (average purchase price of holders). In past bull runs, such as 2017 and 2021, the Z-Score hit levels above 7 or 8, signaling a peak. Today, it is neutral, around 2.5 to 3 (estimate based on recent trends). This suggests that BTC is not yet overvalued, leaving room for further increases.

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Article

Stop Listening to Speculators and Market Analysts: Your Money Deserves More!

Have you ever fallen for the smooth talk of a market 'guru'? That guy on YouTube or X who swears that Bitcoin will hit 100k tomorrow or that some obscure altcoin is 'the future'? Speculators and market analysts live on promises, colorful charts, and bombastic predictions – but the price of wrong bets is paid by you. Stop blindly trusting these prophets of financial chaos. Here’s why you should stop listening to them and take control of your money.
1. They Don’t Have a Crystal Ball

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Article

Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin: Why These and Other Altcoins Are Not Alternatives to Bitcoin!

Imagine a digital currency that withstands crises, governments, and trends, while thousands of rivals emerge and disappear. This is Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneer that reigns among over 20,000 cryptocurrencies. Altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin promise innovation and quick gains, but none come close to BTC. Why? Their fundamentals show that it is unique – and irreplaceable. See why altcoins are not alternatives to the king.
1. True Decentralization
Created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, BTC is pure: no owner, no government, just a global network of nodes. Altcoins? Ethereum has Vitalik Buterin leading, XRP has Ripple Labs, Solana has Anatoly Yakovenko, Dogecoin has its creators, Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer. When China banned mining in 2021, BTC survived; these centralized altcoins would have collapsed. Freedom is only with Bitcoin.

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