This is what the market is going to do in the next few weeks, until the new interest rate decision:
Until August 20-22: New fall from #btc to the level of 52-50k not falling below the previous low, but without a big bounce. Lots of fear in the market for #mpbox Ukraine, Israel, but nothing. Harris is doing well for the elections so nothing is going to happen (if Trump gets ahead in the polls it changes everything).
Approx. August 22 until the interest rate decision: Sideways, boring, without major volume, accumulation. If there is no nuclear bomb by September, buy.
After the decision of #FED : great volatility and first bullish movements with big rejections, until recovering the 60k from there to fly.
Both Wall Street and the #crypto market are experiencing a surge in great returns. W. S. marking new ATHs and BTC approaching local highs to continue the trend (or break it, we'll see).
Fundamental:
-It is likely that this movement is anticipating a good data of #IPC at #EEUU on 13/2 (therefore on the same Tuesday there may be a blow off top again), added to the banking crisis and some downward domestic consumption data, it may anticipate a rate cut... We'll see. The truth is that the rate cut is just around the corner
-Volume is coming in and the institutions do not care about the RSI, nor about indicators when there is hype, each one wants to arrive before the other.
- #Halving2024 y Hype of institutional adoption. Like it or not, investment funds are getting involved in a big way, now they are going for ETH...Which is a msg. from: let's keep going, who wants to join the party?
Projection:
There is an important resistance in the 48500 area, if it breaks it, it will mark a new high above 49000 going to look for the 51000-53000 area.
In my case I will undo positions and follow the movement closely. We have volume which indicates the strength of the momentum and accentuates the probability of achieving new highs.
Both Wall Street and the #crypto market are experiencing a surge in great returns. W. S. marking new ATHs and BTC approaching local highs to continue the trend (or break it, we'll see).
Fundamental:
-It is likely that this movement is anticipating a good data of #IPC at #EEUU on 13/2 (therefore on the same Tuesday there may be a blow off top again), added to the banking crisis and some downward domestic consumption data, it may anticipate a rate cut... We'll see. The truth is that the rate cut is just around the corner
-Volume is coming in and the institutions do not care about the RSI, nor about indicators when there is hype, each one wants to arrive before the other.
- #Halving2024 y Hype of institutional adoption. Like it or not, investment funds are getting involved in a big way, now they are going for ETH...Which is a msg. from: let's keep going, who wants to join the party?
Projection:
There is an important resistance in the 48500 area, if it breaks it, it will mark a new high above 49000 going to look for the 51000-53000 area.
In my case I will undo positions and follow the movement closely. We have volume which indicates the strength of the momentum and accentuates the probability of achieving new highs.
Yesterday 7/2 the volume of #ETFs $BTC exceeded 1 billion dollars. There is institutional interest, without a doubt.
--BTC's trend continues to be bullish, if in the next impulse it is not possible to exceed the previous maximum in 1D temporality, we would have to see other indicators to determine if we are in danger, however everything indicates bullish continuation (maybe don't imagine to the moon.. The next resistance is in the area of 51900-53000)
Another essential point... It seems that the traditional stock market is anticipating good data from #IPC on 2/13, that would explain its new historical highs--
As seen in the Bloomberg graph, 729 million were ETFs excluded from #Grayscale , which speaks even more of the interest of "non-bitcoiners" who are entering the market.
Remember that, 729 million non-bitcoiners.
Fidelity also published that it would allocate 1 to 3% in BTC in its portfolio. Let's add that to all the statements like those of Cathie Wood of Ark Investment.
More data. Bitcon is not only gaining value against the dollar, the Japanese yuan, the Russian ruble, the yuan, and so on.
Think, if in #EEUU they changed the rhetoric, don't you think the rest of the financial world will run behind so as not to miss the boat?
$BTC is forming an inverted head-shoulder pattern in 1D timing, which can take it to the 46800 area according to the projection.
If the momentum is good, it would be best to continue until the 50,000 area, so as not to break the bullish structure in days and remain below the previous maximum.
Let's see what happens!
We have data from #IPC at #EEUU on 2/13. Despite Powell's words, it does show good data, the first rate cut will be closer than we imagine. Election year, let's not forget that.
At the current moment with the institutions accepting the place of #BTC with #ETFs and advertising on Google and Meta, there is nothing to indicate that its demand is going to fall.
What we now have is a side, within an uptrend, which means it is more likely to continue rising.
On 2/13 we will have data from #IPC en#EEUU that will move the market no matter what, as it is the prelude to the possible rate cut. Although Powel overturned expectations, no one believes him anymore, the data will lead the way. A favorable CPI, falling to 3.4 to 3%, is something possible, and it would be very good, as it indicates that after a rebound, inflation continues its downward trend, and by the next reading in March we could already be on the ground. 2.7-2.8%. This would indicate a soft landing.
I don't think BTC will fall below the 200 moving average, which is in the 36000-37000 area. Maybe it will fall to liquidate positions and rebound strongly to retake the zone.
In fact, as I show in the weekly chart, it remains within the channel. Probably with the lateral I will break it until I have a new impulse in the best of scenarios, good Ipc data and jump to the 45-50000 zone
👉Technology companies lead the rise in the stock market. 👉The #crypto are part of the natural environment of technology companies 👉$BTC will stabilize at any moment and will have no option but up. 👉The #ETFs have bought between 38000 and 47000. 👉Several regional banks at #EEUU show weakness.
Basically the $BTC offering of #Grayscale when #ETFs were approved was absorbed by BlackRock and Fidelity.
Market prices marked approx. a high of 48937 and a low of 38557 since then. With this we have a price range where supply and demand are balanced.
Now we are waiting for new catalysts. We know that $BTC moves as a risk asset, on the way to a safe haven asset.
We have data on: #IPC on 13/2 and interest rate pivot in March-May, #Halving in April, and the Chinese economy looking for reactivation solutions.
In the medium term, all this is bullish, since the data on the US economy seem to indicate a soft landing. In my previous post I showed the inverted hch pattern, which implies a possible bullish momentum to test 46800.
$BTC is forming an inverted head-shoulder pattern in 1D timing, which can take it to the 46800 area according to the projection.
If the momentum is good, it would be best to continue until the 50,000 area, so as not to break the bullish structure in days and remain below the previous maximum.
Let's see what happens!
We have data from #IPC at #EEUU on 2/13. Despite Powell's words, it does show good data, the first rate cut will be closer than we imagine. Election year, let's not forget that.
#X formerly Twitter has already been licensed as a money transmitter in 18 states from #EEUU
This is something favorable for #crypto not only because of Elon Musk's inclination to $BTC and #Doge but because it joins large companies like#PayPalin integrations favorable to the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of exchange of value.
The important thing about this is that they are mass-use companies, which are going to drive the use of cryptocurrencies. Today that is the biggest challenge for this market, usability.
The technology as such is in development, its applications will emerge and with increasing force, the fact that these two giants open the doors to value transactions is eminently bullish.
In my opinion, 2024 is a good year to buy the dips.
Today we have the interest rate decision. They will probably maintain the rate with a relatively favorable speech.
Until March-April there will be no changes in rates. It is likely that the #WallStreet market will begin to take profits because they have anticipated the good outlook (lowering CPI without breaking the economy).
The reactivation is what is coming, raw materials, industry and rotation towards #crypto , as the halving is coming plus the good news of #ETFs
The crypto market will continue to rise with corrections throughout 2024.
#ETFs approved #Halving2024 #tasasdeinteres which will decrease #inflacion controlled #guerra Possibly the Ukraine - Russia conflict will come to an end due to inconsistency Favorable#institutionaldiscourse by more and more actors regarding the technology behind crypto.