Is 2025 a Wild Bull Market? (1)

It has become a consensus among most people that the cryptocurrency market will be bullish in 2024 and 2025, but some people wonder: If everyone thinks the next two years will be a bull market, will the bull market still come?

First, the conclusion: Yes.

There are no special tricks in trading; on a larger scale, people have been trading since birth, constantly weighing pros and cons. What I mentioned above may seem vague, but when it comes to financial trading, especially in the cryptocurrency market, it becomes even simpler. Seasons change, the moon waxes and wanes, the sun rises and sets; these are the laws of nature.

Market bull and bear transitions are similar; when you extend the timeline, these trends are quite graspable. A bull market doesn't emerge overnight, and a bear market doesn't end in a day. In trading, there's no need to chase absolute lows; absolute lows may only last for a few seconds. For example, during the last bull market, few people managed to catch the low of 3120 or 3800. In hindsight, buying between 4000-6000 would also be considered capturing a relatively low point during the last bear market, which is normal.

Now let's focus on: Will 2025 be a bull market?

The general consensus now is that 2025 will be a wild bull market, and I've also seen many skeptical voices, such as: If everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, will the bull still come as everyone wishes? If everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, won't they all have made money?

In response to this, I previously mentioned “Unity of Knowledge and Action”; knowing is one thing, but whether you can act on it is the most important. After all, ancient emperors had no personal matters, and today we have decentralized transparency. The halving of Bitcoin is visible to all, so knowing is not difficult, and that's one point.

Secondly, I have stated that the current Bitcoin still lacks the ability to lead the market, rising against the overall financial trading trend. Therefore, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is closely related to the macroeconomic environment. How do bull markets come about? By injecting liquidity. How do they end? Through interest rate hikes. The previously known cycles of bull and bear markets have all followed this pattern.

The previous section has concluded; follow me for updates on the next part!

As a top-tier secondary blogger abroad, rose's sensitivity to the liquidity of cryptocurrencies is evident.

In November, rose called out doge, xrp, and ltc, and this month called out xvg, which has now erupted!

Spot players should pay more attention to rose, which we are aggregating and forwarding; this round of a hundred times is not a problem~

#1MBABYDOGE热度上升 #Meme齐涨 #美财政部称BTC“数字黄金” #BTC能站稳10W吗？ #山寨季怎么布局？ $DOGE $LTC $XRP

In this era, wealth is no longer a compensation for labor, but a reward for cognition.

The marginal return that can be exchanged for labor is getting smaller and smaller, and the value of labor is constantly depreciating with age.

The biggest competition in this world is the competition of cognition, which is the core key to winning.

All those who can successfully counterattack are not ordinary people. They may be of ordinary origin, ordinary appearance, ordinary education, ordinary resources and connections, but their cognition is no longer ordinary.

The way for ordinary children to counterattack is not only to be well versed in social rules, but also to have a deep insight into human nature and upgrade their cognition of the essence and laws of things, so that they can be good at distinguishing people, identifying people, using people, managing people and conquering people.

The greatest sorrow of a person is that when you understand the rules of this society and the truth of human nature, you are no longer young! When you reach the age of forty and understand it, it may be difficult for you to turn the tables at this time!

This is the limitation of cognition on a person.
If you don’t understand human nature, you will be wrong for life! #币安将上市ACX、ORCA #比特币回升至97K #ENA突破1美元 #SUI市场新焦点 #山寨币市场观察

First, let's review the last bull market that birthed 61 hundredfold coins.
The last bull market created many hundredfold coins, and this current bull market is no different; the crypto space is never short of narrative directions.

Back to the point, what information can we glean from the 61 hundredfold coins in the last bull market?

Several necessary conditions for hundredfold coins in the last bull market are also indicators for selecting the next round of hundredfold coins, so let’s discuss them together.

First, they must be new coins that emerged during the bear market after Bitcoin peaked, without having gone through a bull market. Based on the previous cycle, we consider mid-2021 as the starting point for the bull market and outline the timeline for the birth of the hundredfold coins.

76% were born between 2018-2020, 24% were born in 2017, and 200-fold: 85% were born between 2018-2019. Only 1.7% of these hundredfold coins were born at the end of the bull market!

From this logic, we should pay close attention to new coins released between 2022-2023. The market cap must be low; ideally, the market cap at the time of entry should not exceed $500 million.
The 61 hundredfold coins from the last cycle all began with a market cap within the top 600~ Additionally, narrative direction is important. Looking back, public chains accounted for the largest share, with 17 hundredfold coins, making up 27.8%; followed by gamefi with 5 hundredfold coins. Then came cross-chain, DeFi, and meme sectors.

Before the last bull market, public chains received little attention, but later Ethereum gained immense recognition, and various public chains were widely focused on, leading to a "Hundred Chains Contending" scenario. As for this round, sectors like the L2, Hong Kong, artificial intelligence, and gamefi are worthy of attention. The gamefi sector must be a focal point; during a bull market, there is significant user base growth, something only the gamefi sector can achieve, resulting in a better wealth creation effect. In fact, the narrative of the last round's gamefi was merely an appetizer; overall, it had little playability. Therefore, we look forward to the next round's performance.

Next, consider the project background and team strength. The institutions that have successfully invested in many hundredfold coins include Multicoin, Polychain, Alameda, BN, A16Z, etc.

Furthermore, regarding token distribution, the best unlock circulation should be distributed within the 40%-60% range, which is also the area where many hundredfold coins from the last bull market had a high probability of occurrence.

To summarize:
1. Project issuance time: Bear market
2. Sector selection: Leading or second-tier in each track
3. Circulating market cap: Below $500 million
4. Project background: Strength! (Check investment institutions)
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Although many people say that there will be no interest rate cut this year, I still stick to my judgment. Sure enough, the expected interest rate cut came tonight. So, the environment is really important. Don't be affected by other people's emotions.

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Today we use data to talk about why there has not been a general rise in the altcoin season this round?

Use total3 as the altcoin market value, and use the total market value of several major stablecoins as the overall market value of stablecoins.

First, the conclusion: First, before the Fed cut interest rates, the market value of stablecoins did not grow fast enough, and second, the overall market value of altcoins is much larger than the previous round.

From November 2019 to November 2020, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 4.7 billion to 21.3 billion, with a change multiple of 4.53, while total3 increased from 51 billion to 98.6 billion, with a change multiple of only 1.93. Therefore, total3/stablecoin dropped from 10.8 to 4.54, which means that the increase in market value during this period corresponds to a reduction in liquidity leverage. This also laid the foundation for the crazy altcoin season from November 2020 to May 2021. Not only did it not overdraw inflows, but it accumulated rising power.

From November 20 to May 21, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 21.3 billion to 84.7 billion, with a change multiple of 3.97, while total3 increased from 98.6 billion to 886 billion, with a change multiple of 8.98. Therefore, total3/stablecoin increased from 4.54 to 10.45. This period of altcoins with a general increase of 8-10 times took advantage of liquidity leverage and maximized the growing market value of stablecoins.

In this round, from October 23, the market value of stablecoins reversed the downward trend and turned to growth. Until March 24, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 116.3 billion to 139.4 billion, with a change multiple of 1.19, while total3 increased from 318.8 billion to 757.6 billion, with a change multiple of 2.37. Therefore, total3/stablecoin increased from 2.74 to 5.44, which means that BTC has not yet reached a historical high, and the market value growth of altcoins has begun to use liquidity leverage.

This is also the reason why the decline of BTC in this round is only 17% while the decline of altcoins is 50%. In the figure, total3 only fell by 28% in this range, which also means that the decline of altcoins is uneven. And the continuous issuance and unlocking of new coins distorts the indicators, and the decline in market value is less than the decline in the average price of altcoins.
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$BTC $ETH $SOL