橘子小将军-AR大庄

$AR really has no popularity anymore, before when I posted an article many people would criticize me, now even the critics have stopped.

How do you all say, $AR is currently starting on the daily line. Based on past trends when the daily line starts, it should make a move up, then pull back and go up again.

It seems to be aiming for a peak around 2.15, testing the pressure at 2 on the pullback. If it can hold steady at 2, it should be welcoming a bull market for ar.

$FIL can see that it has already risen more than 30% from a relatively low point, the daily line is rising, and it can be safely entered.

At the same time, the storage sector's $AR is still stuck in a slow oscillation, and even the big players do not want to push it up, so we can only wait for the collective rise of the clones before the follow-up increase.

The disappearing storage narrative is ultimately the fault of the token economic model

It seems that after early 2024, the market has hardly mentioned the storage track, mainly because the token model is not good.

$AR compared to $FIL , Filecoin is essentially a mining machine scheme, and the fil economic model encourages miners to back up data crazily, thus ultimately becoming a price comparison mechanism between hard drives and fil, where everyone invested in hard drives before the plummet of fil.

The only difference between Filecoin and Ethereum is that Ethereum actually has practical uses, but there are no B-end enterprises or individuals that use Filecoin daily.

Arweave is the extreme opposite of Filecoin, its economic model is based on "one-time payment, permanent storage," with the core being that $AR mining is slow enough to continuously incentivize miners not to delete data, but this fundamentally limits the scale of Arweave. The reasoning is simple: the more you store, the higher the maintenance costs, requiring exceedingly slow time to break even.

$AR ar is already dispensable for the market
One side is shifting attention to various new tracks and new coins
On the other side, on-chain users are slowly exiting
The narrative of the web3 storage track has been told for 6 years, but still no signs of any mass adoption breakthrough.

I don't know why you all still have confidence in the storage track, but I certainly don't.

$AR When a coin falls to a price lower than the last bear market, there are only two reasons: either the token has been continuously unlocked, or the project team has run away.

It is obvious that ar is the latter, the founder Sam has created a beautiful ao dream for everyone, and then dropped ar to the bottom, Sam's wallet has become fat, while everyone's wallets are empty.

The dream should wake up.

$AR It seems that this time it's not a rebound, but the beginning of another round of decline.
It may fall below 1, the reason being that the project team also doesn't know how to play anymore, and they probably have completed the original accumulation. For this project, there is no need to invest more.
Don't deepen your trust in Sam; remember he is just a person with high ambitions but low abilities. You can't pin the future on him. Perhaps the drop last night was the project leaders offloading their assets.

I am buying the dip again at 1.64 $AR , do you still have bullets?
Waiting for oversold correction

$AR As a major investor, I have become deeply disappointed with the Arweave chain and have liquidated all my positions as of February 11. Best wishes.

$LTC Currently, Litecoin is almost dead.

I asked many friends who entered the circle in 2024 and 2025, and they have no idea what Litecoin is; they only know about hype aster.

The market's attention towards it is slowly fading, accompanied by many old coins that have received no new capital inflow during this cycle, and old coins are heading towards extinction. Mainstream coins have already undergone reshuffling.

$AR ar liquidity has almost disappeared, ao is currently playing dead, and the project party is not doing anything, waiting for ar is just a slow decline to zero

$AR ar is almost dead, now don't look at ICP and FIL, just sell your AR now, and see again in one year

$ETH 4 years ago you were trapped at 4800, this time you are trapped at 4800

$ETH Short-term Breakthrough Probability Analysis of 4000

Looking at the ETF data, on August 4th, there was a net outflow of approximately -465 million USD in a single day (mainly from ETHA), but on 8/5 it quickly turned into a net inflow of +73.3 million, and on 8/6 it continued with +35.1 million. The funding situation has clearly improved.
In the first two weeks of August, the net growth of ETH spot ETF positions accounted for about 0.3–0.4% of the circulating supply.

Not only $BTC, but the stock of $ETH on exchanges is also close to historical lows. The conventional interpretation is that selling pressure has decreased, but the current resistance is more about psychological barriers rather than actual sell orders.

Significant benefits such as the EIP-4844 upgrade have yet to be fully priced in. If ETH remains around 3800 by this weekend, next week's CPI data will become a key driver.

In other words—if the funding situation and on-chain narratives are insufficient to push $ETH above 4000, then we can only wait for macroeconomic or regulatory catalysts.

The CPI to be released next Tuesday will be the most critical indicator for determining the market direction.

This data is directly related to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of the year. The logic has been worn out:
Inflation decreases → the Fed has room to cut rates → the dollar weakens → market liquidity increases → great news for cryptocurrencies.

So ultimately, there are two possible outcomes:

1. CPI below expectations (bullish):
This means inflation is under control, risk appetite rebounds quickly, and the market will surge initially.
Note that highly volatile assets tend to rise the fastest: like the $SOL ecosystem, RWA, and various small tokens in the layer two space, which may take off directly.

2. CPI meets or exceeds expectations (bearish):
The market will likely take a hit initially, especially those assets that have risen significantly recently will face the hardest sell-off. It may slowly recover later, but it depends on the dollar and U.S. treasury yields.

My experience is:
The violent price swings in the first few seconds after the data is released are mostly false movements created by bots. The real direction usually needs 30 to 90 minutes to clarify how U.S. treasury yields and the dollar index are moving before it can be trusted.

Lastly, remember one thing —
If the CPI is clearly good, but the dollar strengthens and treasury yields rise instead, then it’s not a "data issue," but a bigger bearish sentiment lurking behind, and you should immediately reduce your positions or even cut losses.

When looking at $ICP at dawn, the rebound is very fast.

Currently, you can gradually build long positions near the 5.5 level. The daily 25 moving average has already crossed above the 7-day moving average, and historically, every time it crosses above, it has brought at least a doubling of the increase, so it should start soon.

ICP has basically completed the seed round unlocking since June this year, which means that the largest potential profit chips have been released, and ICP is set to change its unlocking and dumping model. There are a lot of trapped positions in ICP, and even if the price doubles now, it may not be enough to trigger ICP's FOMO.

From the perspective of the fundamental ecosystem, there are not many favorable factors for ICP, and even the plans for 2025 to 2026 are very vague. Although it is still in operation, in the short term, it is not a promising coin and should not be held onto; if it reaches 6.8, you should consider exiting.

The epic pullback from $ETH may happen within the next 10 days!
#ETH重返3800
This time ETH is aiming for 4100, even if it may appear as a spike above with wicks, this movement is definitely going to happen.

The reason lies in the on-chain liquidation chart, where there are two large short liquidation orders at the 3999 and 4100 levels. Based on the current ETH's price action, these two points are definitely going to be reached.

However, the epic pullback in ETH is about to come; I lean more towards breaking the previous high before the pullback, and the intensity of the pullback will be unprecedented because the 4100 level is just the previous high, which will trigger a massive selling pressure from both spot and futures.

Additionally, there are currently about 700,000 ETH queued to exit the Pos node queue, expected to flow into the market in about 11 days. The profit-taking from this portion is not something the market can digest in the short term, so it would be wise to gradually enter short positions above the 4000 point, expecting a pullback below 3800.

$AR saw no less than 100 people say that founder sam is a technical person who doesn't like flashy marketing, and I find that very stupid.
First of all, do you know sam? Have you read his blog? Have you deeply understood the history of Arweave? Without knowing any of this, what qualifications do you have to judge others? Saying sam is a tech geek makes it sound like you’ve known sam since you were kids.
Secondly, sam is a businessman. As the owner of a project, his standard for doing things is making money. You say he failed in the AO, but you don’t know how much he makes daily from staking DAI and stETH; is opening a stake a very technical thing? And how much has his so-called scp and hyperbeam technology earned directly? It doesn't need to earn a lot directly; rather, it needs to make you feel awesome and create an illusion of him being a tech geek, then you end up putting your money into his staking contract.
Do you understand, kids? In whatever you do, don’t just follow the crowd; having a muddled mind means nothing. Class dismissed.