11.8 The Windfall Returns to ETH

1. While BTC reached a new high, it also experienced the largest single-day short liquidation since the bull market began, which means BTC needs time to consolidate, giving ETH an opportunity.
2. ETH/BTC has started to strengthen, with funds flowing out of BTC into ETH for two consecutive days, which could indicate a trend change.
3. ETH's ETF has seen a net inflow of over 50 million U for two consecutive days, marking a recent high.
4. Several DeFi projects like ENA, AAVE, and MKR have surged in trading volume, whereas previously, most were dominated by MEME coins.
5. For the new government, aside from the strategic reserve value of BTC, only DeFi financial innovations can be presented, and the DeFi ecosystem of ETH is the most complete.

11.4 Main Uptrend or Main Downtrend Will Be Revealed in November

1. After rebounding for nearly 3 months since 1.49000, BTC has not been able to break through the new high, and ETH can't even surpass 2800. It's worth noting that last October it took less than a month and a half to reach a new high.
2. BTC seems to have broken the downward trend line, but the total market capitalization of crypto is still perfectly within the downward trend line, with highs continuously lowering.
3. There is a support line below ETH that will eventually be broken by a large bearish candle, indicating a bearish trend for November to December.

10.25 The End of the Strong Bow

1. The trends of BTC and ETH are vastly different. BTC, supported by ETFs, has become a type of asset that lies between stocks and cryptocurrencies, with a certain fundamental value and not entirely dependent on liquidity. In contrast, ETH and altcoins truly reflect the current state of the cryptocurrency market, where the strong rebound of the US dollar and shrinking market capitalization under low liquidity are evident. This decline is an inevitable oscillation during the transition from QT to QE, and this process will be very lengthy.

2. The collapse of ETH signifies the end of a two-and-a-half-month rebound, and the price will return to a downward trend. The next target is to fall below 2000. Of course, whether BTC will, like before, create a false breakthrough to reach a new high before falling again remains unknown, but it has already reached the end of the strong bow.

10.24 You think it's a pick-up while reversing, I think it's an escape door
1. BTC fell to the EMA20 position yesterday and began to rebound. This rebound made those who were just waking up after being splashed with cold water feel confident again, shouting for a pick-up while reversing.
2. A rebound after a breakdown is an escape door. BTC could rebound and then drop directly or, like in May and July, make a false breakthrough to a new high before dropping again. But regardless, ETH is falling very smoothly and cannot return to its peak.

10.23 You are waiting for a huge pump, I am waiting for a huge crash
1. The decline has just begun; the initial slow drop makes everyone think it's a normal correction. As corrections accumulate, it gradually exhausts the remaining bullets, locking in positions at the top, and then accelerates the decline.
2. This wave of decline is expected to last until December, and BTC's market share will peak in December. ETH and altcoins will once again be severely hit in this wave of decline, and you will see ETH under 2000 by the end of the year.

Is this your reason for being bullish to 100,000 in the fourth quarter?

1. U.S. Election: Over the past decade, we have seen two presidents, Trump and Biden, and BTC has gone through two cycles of bull and bear markets, which has nothing to do with who is president.
2. Improving Employment: Whether there is a soft landing will be seen next year at the earliest; a better unemployment rate has actually slowed down the pace and extent of interest rate cuts.
3. New Highs in the U.S. Stock Market: It is normal for the cryptocurrency market to lead the decline independently; this happens when the U.S. stock market rises, but what happens when it falls?
4. Large Inflows into ETFs: The recent significant influx into BTC has not caused much of a price increase, indicating that large funds are also exiting at the same time; Grayscale's clients have previously experienced paper losses, and BlackRock is just profiting?
5. Weekly MACD Golden Cross: Meaningless; after a golden cross, a death cross can follow.
6. Post-halving Price Trends: The key factor affecting the long-term trend of cryptocurrency prices is no longer halving but monetary policy. This round of monetary policy, regardless of whether interest rates are raised or lowered, will last much longer than the previous cycle, and the adjustment period will also be lengthy.

The core driver of cryptocurrency prices is the liquidity brought by monetary policy. The balance sheet is still being reduced, the dollar is rebounding strongly, interest rates are still high, and achieving QE is still far off. We are nowhere near a point to welcome a bubble, but the price of cryptocurrencies has risen from 15,500 to 68,000. I really can't find a reason to buy cryptocurrency now!

10.22 Winter is Coming

1. Yesterday I saw various Chinese and English old experts celebrating the arrival of a bull market, and there are those resigning to fully embrace WEB3, and some entering with loans to change their fate. I can only say that fate loves to play tricks on people.
2. This morning, when BTC fell below 66,600, it announced the end of this bullish period. Winter will last until December, and every subsequent rebound will be your opportunity to escape. Of course, the latecomers will surely give you advice to buy the dip.

This is a comparison chart of all the staged tops of BTC and ETH in the past six months

You can see that at each top, BTC hits a new high while ETH does not follow and cannot hit a new high

When this happens, we must consider whether BTC is a false breakthrough. The main force is just pulling the market index to create a bull market atmosphere, but in fact it is shipping

10.17 You are waiting for 100,000 BTC, I am waiting for ETH within 2,000
1. The bull market has come to an end, just like a domino collapse at any time
2. BTC's market share will continue to rise, and this situation is expected to continue until the end of the year
3. ETH and copycats will be slaughtered, and ETH will fall back to within 2,000

10.15 How high can this wave go?

1. BTC can rise to 68,000 (downward trend line), or 71,000 (break through the previous high point) or even slightly hit some historical highs, but I don’t think it can rise to 100,000 in the fourth quarter. This view has been expressed at 49,000, and the reasons have been explained many times.
2. ETH and Shanzhai can’t return to the high point, and BTC’s market share is still increasing. This situation may continue until December.
3. After this wave of rise, there will be a sharp decline

When should you go all-in on ETH?

1. From the history of ETH, December is a magical month. Several absolute bottoms occurred in December, falling to 6U in December 2016, 80U in December 2018, 116U in December 2019, and 1150U in December 2022

2. From the exchange rate of ETH/BTC, the first two cycles bottomed out in December of the same year after breaking through the key horizontal support, and it has now broken through the key horizontal support

Will history repeat itself? Will ETH bottom out in December this year? Pay attention to December

10.11 The calm before the storm

1. 61000 is a very interesting position. It is the middle track of the fluctuation for more than half a year, and the short, medium and long-term moving averages of the daily line are close to this position and begin to flatten, which means that everyone's holding costs have been consistent in the past year. This is a precursor to the coming of huge fluctuations

2. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate around 61000 for a period of time, and then usher in huge fluctuations. Do you think it will go up or down?

10.7 Talk about the outlook for the market

1. The downward shock will continue until the middle of the 25 years. This will be a long and painful market. There will be neither a big bull market nor a unilateral decline. Whenever you are passionate and yearning, the market will pour cold water on you; whenever you are on the verge of despair, the market will head up again;

As for those who are obsessed with the time after the halving and hold the inertial thinking of the bull market, they will go bankrupt and withdraw from the circle in this long and painful market

There are many reasons: BTC market share will peak, QT to QE is a long process, the full-scale war in the Middle East will cause repeated inflation, and there are still many uncertainties about whether the degree of economic recession can be soft-landed, and the current price of BTC is no longer attractive

2. For the fourth quarter, the market is still full of opportunities. Bands are a good strategy. Above 65,000, you should wait for the opportunity to short, and below 49,000, you should wait for the opportunity to go long. Of course, I can't predict the top and bottom on the left, but the price enters this range and adopts the corresponding strategy

9.17 How will the cryptocurrency market go in the interest rate cut cycle?
1. From QT to QE, the most important thing is the reduction of capital costs. There are two very important impacts on the liquidity-dominated cryptocurrency market. The first is that BTC.D will peak, and funds will flow from conservative BTC to aggressive altcoins. The second is that QE will bring about a real violent bull market
2. However, in the process from QT to QE, the US stock market has plummeted in history. Institutions need to obtain lower-priced chips before the arrival of QE. This plunge usually occurs around the second and third interest rate hikes
3. I am cautiously optimistic about the current market, bullish on September-October, and cautious about November-December

9.14 Opportunities always come to those who are prepared
1. When I bought the bottom at 53,500 on September 7, some people always said that September has always fallen, and historical interest rate cuts have always fallen, and it will go to 40,000 before the decline is complete. As a result, yesterday's big positive line made these people scramble
2. When I bought the bottom, I gave a BTC target of more than 65,000. Now it has reached a higher low point, and it will create a higher high point next. There will be some resistance in the 61,000-62,000 area

9.12 Small callback, easy to grasp
1. Yesterday, the callback range of 54700-55700 was given. The BTC price fell very accurately in this range and then began to rise
2. The price has broken through 58000 in the morning. Whether it can stand firm will be seen at the close of tomorrow. If it cannot stand firm, it will fluctuate for a few days before rising
3. The spot bought at the bottom on September 7 has been held, and the target is above 65000

9.12 Small callback, easy to grasp
1. Yesterday, the callback range of 54700-55700 was given. The BTC price fell very accurately in this range and then began to rise
2. The price has broken through 58000 in the morning. Whether it can stand firm will be seen at the close of tomorrow. If it cannot stand firm, it will fluctuate for a few days before rising
3. The spot bought at the bottom on September 7 has been held, and the target is above 65000

9.11 Breaking the downward trend
1. BTC started to pull back after breaking through 57,000 and reaching 58,000 for the first time. From the hourly level, it completed the first higher high and ended the downward trend from 65,000 to 52,500
2. Pay attention to the support range of 54,700-55,700 below
3. The target of this wave of BTC is to return to above 65,000 unchanged

9.10 The boat has passed through thousands of mountains
1. For the first time in the past six months, BTC has created a higher low of 52,500. The expectation for this period of time is that it will rise above the previous high of 65,000, and there is a probability that it will reach a new high
2. But I don’t think there will be any violent bull market in the fourth quarter. I am only bullish on the market in September and October, and bullish on BTC. It is difficult for ETH and altcoins to return to their highs this year

#BTC #ETH #SOL

9.9 Everything is ready, only the east wind is missing
1. After this drop, BTC continued to have negative funding rates, the long-short ratio reached an extreme high, and the greed panic index almost reached the moment of FTX thunderstorm. 9 out of 10 bloggers are bearish. When everyone panics, it is naturally my greedy time
2. BTC did not create a lower low this time, but only stepped back to the low of July 5, which is of great significance to the bulls. Of course, if the volume stands above 57100, it will confirm the bottom of 52500