Pike时政财经分析搬运号

A Comprehensive Interpretation of Micron's Financial Report for Q4 2025

In this earnings call, management shared a very profound insight: as we enter the AI era, memory is gradually transforming from an ordinary commodity into a key strategic asset. Behind this transformation is an immeasurable market demand. The company has repeatedly stated that it is currently very difficult to predict when the supply side will truly meet the market. This is not just a temporary fluctuation on the demand side, but because diversified demands such as AI training, inference, KV cache, and agent collaboration are explosively stacking up. Therefore, all the shipment data currently observed cannot actually represent the real business level; they are merely the compromise products under constrained supply.

So what exactly is choking off production capacity? Micron has clearly stated that the current number one bottleneck is the cleanroom. As the core carrier of wafer manufacturing, the cleanroom is far from an ordinary industrial facility; it requires extremely stringent particle contamination prevention, precise temperature and humidity control, and strict vibration prevention measures. This high standard directly leads to a long construction cycle. Generally speaking, it takes 18 to 24 months from design planning to construction completion, followed by several months of testing and validation before it can officially be used. This means that even if the company were to immediately start expanding production at this moment, the effective capacity that can be provided to the market would not materialize until after 2028.

In terms of product line layout, HBM has become a core variable that disrupts the supply-demand balance in the industry. Generally speaking, the price of HBM is usually settled in advance, ensuring stable revenue; however, the profit margin of non-HBM products is actually even higher at the moment. The fact that HBM occupies more advanced production capacity during the manufacturing process directly leads to a decline in the unit output bit, further tightening the overall supply, which is already not abundant.

To tackle this series of challenges and stabilize expectations, Micron has for the first time clearly revealed in the meeting that it is actively promoting long-term supply agreements (SCA) of five years or even longer with several core customers. This is a very clear industry barometer, marking that the entire storage industry is gradually bidding farewell to the traditionally highly volatile spot market and steadily evolving towards a new model that locks in demand through long-term contracts.

【Iran's blockade of the Hormuz Strait will only backfire】WSJ reported on March 18 that Gulf countries hope the U.S. will thoroughly weaken the Iranian regime before the end of the war. After suffering from Iranian attacks and the disruption of shipping in the Hormuz Strait, the UAE and several other Gulf countries believe that the Iranian theocratic government poses a threat to their existence. These countries now hope that the regime they once tried to court will be weakened, if not dismantled, by the end of the conflict to prevent such a disaster from happening again.

The UAE government stated that over 80% of drones and missiles targeted civilian infrastructure, including oil facilities, refineries, airports, ports, hotels, and data centers, resulting in the deaths of six civilians and injuring another 157.

UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan al-Jaber said, "Any long-term political solution must address threats at all levels, including Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and its regional proxy networks."

Qatar's Prime Minister's advisor Majed al Ansari said, "I must make it clear that since Iran began attacking Qatar, threats and attacks against civilians and civilian targets have never ceased." Iranian attacks have caused civilian casualties in all six Gulf countries.

Another senior Gulf official indicated that, given the indiscriminate nature of such Iranian attacks and Tehran's willingness to devastate neighboring countries, the only acceptable outcome of this war is to remove Iran's threat capabilities and severely weaken it, ensuring it can no longer endanger its neighbors.

Some officials in the Gulf region believe that the only way to force the Iranian regime to reopen the Hormuz Strait might be for the U.S. to seize Kharg Island or show readiness to attack the island.

Al-Jaber stated, "Our operations have been affected, and while we assess each location, product, and batch of goods, we will continue to do everything possible to alleviate the situation. We will continue to act as a responsible and reliable global energy supplier."

My view: When Iran decided to disrupt the Hormuz Strait, it was not only an attack on Gulf countries but also an attack on the entire world; the Iranian regime has crossed all red lines. In this context, the shift in the stance of Gulf countries is understandable. They have begun to clearly support stronger measures from the U.S. and Israel, shifting from 'peacemakers' to 'security dependents.' Now, it is in the interest of everyone, including Gulf countries, for the U.S. to resolve this matter.

Tonight, slightly tipsy, I want to open my heart and share a few thoughts with everyone. I have noticed that many friends who often interact on Twitter have now settled abroad. We share almost the same life trajectory, having left the mainland and integrated into completely different social systems and living environments. As time goes by, everyone gradually realizes that the initial choice of a foreign land was not solely for better career development, salary, or lifestyle. Beneath these superficial appearances lies a deeper yearning for a certain social order, a transparent and clear set of rules, and a longing for individual dignity to be fully respected.

Only when you have personally immersed yourself in a societal environment that values personal rights, practices the spirit of the rule of law, and embraces diverse voices will you understand that none of this is a gift from above. This experience will naturally provoke deep reflection: why do these seemingly ordinary things still seem incredibly rare in our homeland? Why have basic rights, which should be inherent, turned into topics that must be fought for or even avoided?

Perhaps in our generation's lifetime, it will be difficult to witness a transformative and substantial change, and everyone actually knows this in their hearts. However, humanity will instinctively retain a hope for a beautiful future. We envision a possibility that at some point in the future, our descendants can live in a society where they can speak freely without walking on eggshells, an environment where they can express the truth without fear; they can have a truly independent and trustworthy judicial system, living in a country where public power is strictly constrained rather than running rampant.

Ultimately, this is not a grand political ambition; it is merely a profoundly pure and simple hope, a hope that everyone can live with dignity and respect, without fear when expressing themselves, able to confidently believe in the institutional rules rather than entrusting their lives to the whims of fate.

Even if all of this sounds like a distant dream today, we still must hope. If one day, people lose the courage to even envision such a beautiful future in their minds, that would be the most concerning moment.

On March 16, Professor Muhanad Seloom of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies published a column on the official website of Al Jazeera. The article provides an in-depth analysis of the military actions taken by the United States and Israel against Iran from both strategic and military perspectives.

The article first reminds readers that mainstream media often has certain limitations in perspective when reporting on this event. Many news organizations focus on the turmoil caused by the war, rising international oil prices, and the escalation of regional conflicts, subsequently asserting that Israel and the United States are mired in a quagmire and lack a comprehensive plan. However, Muhanad Seloom believes that this viewpoint only considers the costs of war while neglecting an objective assessment of the implementation of strategic goals.

Analyzing the specific military aspects, it can be observed that Iran's core armed forces are experiencing systematic weakening. In just two weeks, the frequency of Iran's missile launches decreased sharply from about 350 to approximately 25, and the number of drone sorties plummeted from 800 to around 75. Meanwhile, its naval fleet, air defense network, and military production facilities continue to bear the brunt of attacks. A significant event is that the U.S. military has now deployed non-stealth B-1 bombers into Iranian airspace to carry out missions, clearly demonstrating that the United States has firmly established air superiority.

In addition, this conflict has significantly weakened Iran's long-term strategic trump cards in areas such as its nuclear program. Before the outbreak of military friction, Iran possessed about 440 kilograms of enriched uranium with a purity of 60%, just one step away from crossing the final threshold to produce nuclear weapons. The current strikes are precisely damaging nuclear facilities and supporting industrial chains, including Natanz, thereby substantially delaying Iran's nuclear weapon development process.

Regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, many opinions interpret Iran's blockade of the waterway as a defeat for the U.S. strategy. However, the commentary article offers a different perspective, arguing that blocking the strait is actually a depleting trump card for Iran. The reason is that approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports also rely on this maritime corridor. If this strait is cut off for an extended period, it would not only severely impact Iran's national economy but also inevitably anger key trade partners such as China.

Muhanad Seloom also observed that Iran's network of proxies in the region is showing signs of decline. Although Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthi movement in Yemen remain active and frequently launch attacks, these actions have revealed a lack of unified coordination. Various armed groups seem to be executing previously authorized retaliatory orders rather than engaging in coordinated strategic collaboration, undoubtedly signaling that Iran's upper command structure is gradually disintegrating.

Here are my personal views: I strongly agree with the core insights of this article. The recent series of military pressures have indeed effectively struck at Iran's military entities, particularly delaying its nuclear program's progress, and even raised hopes for a complete resolution of this nuclear crisis in the future.

In the face of some extremely radical regimes, it often requires more decisive and forceful means to break the deadlock. Iran's current theocratic ruling system is ultimately a highly centralized authoritarian form. In real international political games, perhaps only a U.S. president like Trump, who carries a certain anti-establishment color and has a tough style, would have the courage to genuinely consider military strikes against Iran as a viable option. Any other U.S. president would likely find it difficult to make such a decisive decision easily.

Looking at a broader historical dimension, if a dictatorship that has harmed tens of thousands of its own citizens in just a few months and has long exported turmoil to its neighbors can weaken or even end, it would undoubtedly be a fortunate event for the peace process in the Middle East and the advancement of human civilization.

On March 16, Muhanad Seloom, a professor of International Politics and Security at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, published a commentary on the Al Jazeera website, evaluating the military actions of the United States and Israel against Iran from a military and strategic perspective.

First, the article argues that the narrative presented by mainstream media is skewed. Many outlets emphasize the chaos brought by war, rising oil prices, and the escalation of regional conflicts, leading to the conclusion that the U.S. and Israel lack a plan and are mired in a quagmire. However, the author believes these comments only see the costs of war, without assessing whether strategic objectives are being achieved.

Second, from a military standpoint, Iran's key military capabilities are being systematically weakened. The number of missile launches by Iran has dropped from about 350 to approximately 25 within two weeks, and drone launches have also decreased from 800 to about 75. Meanwhile, Iran's naval forces, air defense systems, and military industrial facilities continue to be under attack. The U.S. has even begun using non-stealthy B-1 bombers to enter Iranian airspace, which is seen as a symbol of the U.S. having achieved a clear aerial advantage.

Additionally, the war is also undermining Iran's long-term strategic capabilities, particularly its nuclear program. Before the war, Iran possessed about 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, only a step away from manufacturing nuclear weapons. The current military actions are damaging nuclear facilities and related industrial systems, such as the Natanz facility, significantly delaying the development of Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, many media outlets believe that Iran's blockade of the strait reflects a failure of U.S. strategy. However, this article argues that Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz is actually a form of “consumable trump card.” This is because about 90% of Iran's oil exports depend on this route. If the strait is closed for an extended period, Iran’s own economy would suffer severely, while also angering important trade partners such as China.

Furthermore, the author believes that Iran's network of regional proxies is also weakening. Although Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthi forces in Yemen continue to carry out attacks, these actions increasingly lack unified command. Proxy forces are more engaged in pre-authorized retaliatory actions rather than coordinated strategic operations, which the author sees as a signal that Iran's command system is breaking down.

My viewpoint: I largely agree with most of the article's points. The current military actions against Iran have indeed significantly weakened Iran's military capabilities, particularly delaying its nuclear program, and there even exists the possibility of completely eliminating this nuclear threat in the future.

For certain rogue regimes, sometimes it is indeed necessary to adopt a tougher approach to solve problems. The existing theocratic political system in Iran is essentially a highly centralized authoritarian regime. In realpolitik, it may only be a U.S. president like Trump, who has a hardline style and even carries a certain “anti-establishment” temperament, that would genuinely push for military options against Iran. Any other American president might not easily make such a decision.

From a more macro perspective, if a dictatorship that has previously slaughtered tens of thousands of its own citizens within months and has long exported regional conflicts can be thoroughly weakened or even disappear, it would be a good thing for the development of the Middle East and even for all of human civilization.

【March 16 Iran War Dynamics】The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an update report on the Iran war on March 16.

First, from the internal structure of the Iranian regime, the power base of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei almost entirely comes from the hardliners of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). The report mentions that long-standing Revolutionary Guard leaders such as Hossein Taeb, Ahmad Vahidi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf promoted his rise to power. This indicates that the power structure of the Iranian regime is further concentrating towards security agencies rather than religious institutions or elected governments. In other words, Iran's political structure is evolving towards a 'military security state.' The report also points out that some within the IRGC believe that war can instead strengthen domestic unity and shift the pressure of the economic crisis.

Second, from the military battlefield situation, US and Israeli airstrikes continue to weaken Iran's military capabilities. The targets of the airstrikes include police stations in Tehran, Basij militia bases, intelligence centers, and missile and drone facilities nationwide. An important signal is that US and Israeli aircraft can now strike targets deep in eastern Iran, 800 kilometers away, indicating that Iran's air defense systems have been suppressed in many areas. Additionally, the US Central Command stated that the focus of strikes has shifted from 'immediate missile threats' to Iran's overall military-industrial system.

Third, regarding Iran's retaliatory capabilities, although attacks are still ongoing, capabilities have significantly declined. The report states that Israel has destroyed about 70% of Iran's missile launch facilities. In the past 24 hours, Iran has launched multiple rounds of missiles at Israel while also attacking Gulf countries with drones and missiles, including Dubai Airport, Abu Dhabi oil fields, and oil and gas facilities. However, the air defense systems of Gulf countries have a high interception rate, so the actual damage caused is limited.

Next is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and energy transportation. Iran has not attacked ships in the strait recently and seems to allow some Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani tankers to pass safely. However, the overall oil export volume from the Middle East has still decreased by about 60%. Iran is clearly conducting a form of 'selective deterrence': creating pressure on the energy market while avoiding a complete closure of the strait that could trigger a full military retaliation.

Then there is the Lebanon and Iraq front. Hezbollah continues to attack in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, while Israel has begun limited ground operations in southern Lebanon, trying to establish a buffer zone. Meanwhile, Iranian-supported Iraqi militias are also attacking US bases and energy facilities, and the US and its allies have conducted airstrikes on these militia targets.

The last significant change is the strengthening of domestic control in Iran. The government has implemented a nationwide internet blockade and has begun cracking down on Starlink devices and VPNs to prevent the spread of war information. Tehran has also set up new security checkpoints. This indicates that the regime is concerned that the war may trigger new domestic protests.

【March 16 Iran War Dynamics】The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an update report on the Iran war on March 16.

Firstly, from the perspective of the internal structure of the Iranian regime, the newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's power base almost entirely comes from the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) hardliners. The report mentions that long-time Revolutionary Guard leaders such as Hossein Taeb, Ahmad Vahidi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf pushed him to rise to power. This indicates that the power structure of the Iranian regime is further concentrating towards security agencies rather than religious institutions or elected governments. In other words, Iran's political structure is evolving towards a form of a "military security state." The report also points out that some within the IRGC believe that war could instead strengthen domestic unity and shift the pressure of the economic crisis.

Secondly, from the military battlefield situation, US and Israeli airstrikes are continuously weakening Iran's military capabilities. Airstrike targets include police stations in Tehran, Basij militia bases, intelligence centers, and missile and drone facilities nationwide. An important signal is that US and Israeli aircraft can now strike targets deep into eastern Iran, up to 800 kilometers, which indicates that Iran's air defense system has been suppressed in many areas. Additionally, the US Central Command stated that the focus of strikes has shifted from "immediate missile threats" to Iran's overall military-industrial system.

Thirdly, regarding Iran's retaliation capabilities, although attacks are still ongoing, the ability has clearly declined. The report states that Israel has destroyed about 70% of Iran's missile launchers. In the past 24 hours, Iran has launched multiple rounds of missiles at Israel while also launching drone and missile attacks against Gulf countries, including Dubai Airport, Abu Dhabi oil fields, and oil and gas facilities. However, the air defense systems of Gulf countries have a high interception rate, resulting in limited actual damage.

Next is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and energy transportation. Iran has not attacked ships in the Strait recently and seems to allow some Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani tankers to pass safely. However, at the same time, the overall oil export volume in the Middle East has still decreased by about 60%. Iran is clearly conducting a form of "selective deterrence": aiming to create pressure on the energy market while avoiding a complete closure of the Strait that could trigger a comprehensive military counterattack.

Then there is the Lebanon and Iraq front. Hezbollah continues to attack northern Israel and southern Lebanon, while Israel has begun limited ground operations in southern Lebanon to establish a buffer zone. Meanwhile, Iranian-supported Iraqi militias are also attacking US bases and energy facilities, and the US and allies have conducted airstrikes on these militia targets.

The last significant change is the strengthening of domestic control in Iran. The government has implemented a nationwide internet blockade and has begun cracking down on Starlink devices and VPNs to prevent the spread of war information. Tehran has also set up new security checkpoints. This indicates that the regime is concerned that the war may trigger new domestic protests.

U.S. intelligence agencies reveal: Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is suspected to be gay

The New York Post published a dramatic report on March 16, indicating that Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay. According to the report, the relevant intelligence comes from extremely confidential channels within the U.S. intelligence community, and thus has been assessed by related individuals to have a certain level of credibility. However, U.S. intelligence agencies also admit that they currently do not possess direct images or any public evidence.

A vivid detail is that when Trump heard this intelligence, he couldn't help but burst out laughing. Several officials present in the same room also found the matter extremely absurd, and even one intelligence officer laughed about it for several days.

Several anonymous individuals disclosed the so-called details of the intelligence to the media. The message indicates that Mojtaba may have a long-term special relationship with a childhood mentor. Moreover, it is said that during his recent medical care due to an injury, he made sexual suggestions to the male caregivers responsible for his care.

It is well known that Iran has extremely harsh legal punishments for homosexuality, with homosexual acts potentially facing the death penalty legally. If the accusations against him are true, it will undoubtedly severely impact the political legitimacy of the theocratic regime in the country. In fact, rumors about his personal life have circulated internally in Iran for many years, and even early diplomatic cables mentioned related issues. It is worth mentioning that in order to have children, he has traveled to the UK four times for erectile dysfunction treatment, eventually succeeding in conceiving and having one son.

In my opinion, the New York Post is a very typical media outlet with a conservative tabloid style. Due to its reports often having a strong political stance and favoring dramatic headlines, the credibility of this news inevitably takes a hit, but it can be regarded as a lighthearted anecdote. Furthermore, I personally have no doubt about the potential chaos and absurdity in the private lives of leaders in totalitarian states. As long as one holds enough power, fulfilling sexual desires is no longer an issue; the only difference is between legal and illegal, as well as traditional and non-traditional methods.

According to recent research and analysis by Goldman Sachs, stocks in the storage sector currently demonstrate a very high investment cost-performance ratio. The report points out that the EPS expectations for these companies in the coming year have already diverged significantly from the current stock prices. In addition, the institution also predicts that the market-wide shortage of storage products is expected to continue until mid-2027.

【The Iran War has shattered the long-standing image of a 'safe financial haven' shaped by Gulf countries】 WSJ reported on the 12th that the Iran War has directly impacted Dubai's security myth. For decades, Dubai has conveyed a very clear narrative to the world: although it is located in the Middle East, it is almost unaffected by Middle Eastern wars, and is a stable, wealthy, and open global financial and tourism center. A large amount of capital, multinational companies, and wealthy individuals have come here based on this assumption. However, after Iran began launching missiles and drones towards the UAE, this assumption has been shattered. Airports closed, ports were attacked, and hotels were damaged; people have, for the first time, truly felt that war is happening in the skies above the city.

Secondly, capital and talent are beginning to reassess risks. The article mentions that asset management companies, lawyers, and banks have received numerous client inquiries asking whether they should transfer their assets to safer areas, such as Singapore. A key foundation of a financial center is 'stable expectations,' and war is shaking this expectation.

My view: Iran's indiscriminate attacks on Middle Eastern countries have greatly harmed the interests of these countries. The Middle Eastern countries may leverage this war to support the replacement of Iran's current extreme regime with a more moderate reformist government. The possibility of regime change in Iran has increased.

Discuss the measures the United States may take to regulate domestic oil prices

First, let's review the historical background. For nearly 40 years prior to 2015, U.S. law explicitly prohibited crude oil exports. Looking at the present, the United States has become the world's largest oil producer, with a daily crude oil output of 13 million barrels, a figure that has successfully surpassed that of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Based on this, the first potential measure is to restart the crude oil export ban, which would increase domestic oil supply by keeping more resources at home, effectively suppressing rising oil prices.

Second, authorities could consider suspending the Jones Act. This adjustment would allow foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil products between U.S. ports. As a result, oil from Gulf Coast refineries could smoothly reach the U.S. East Coast (PADD1) and West Coast regions. With the easing of domestic logistics restrictions, there would be a sudden increase in supply, which is likely to lead to "artificially lowered" U.S. oil prices, or even a direct decrease in prices.

Third, intervening with strategic reserves is also an important measure. The United States could work with G7 countries to jointly release strategic petroleum reserves. This action of pushing government stockpiled crude oil directly into the market could provide additional supply for immediate delivery, thereby compressing international crude oil prices and their risk premiums. As upstream prices ease, this benefit will transmit to the consumer side, lowering wholesale and retail prices for gasoline and diesel in the United States.

Fourth, on the geopolitical security front, U.S. warships could be deployed for escorting to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz maintains a limited state of navigation. This military deployment aims to reduce the probability of supply disruptions in this critical energy transport route, ensuring continuous transportation safety.

Finally, effectively addressing the situation in Iran will be a key factor. If the actions of the U.S. and Israel are strong and effective, leading to a change in the leadership of that country towards a moderate reformist government, and following a similar path to Venezuela's development, it would be an extremely ideal outcome. The tense situation is expected to cool rapidly at that time.

In a research report on Micron MU published on March 2, Goldman Sachs not only set a target stock price of 360 but also provided a forecast of an EPS reaching 47.8 by 2027, a figure that is quite remarkable. Delving into the implied logic behind its valuation model, it is mainly based on strong expectations for the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) average selling price (ASP). Specifically, for CY1Q26, the institution estimates that the ASP of DRAM will see an increase of around 10%, while the ASP of NAND will rise by about 15%. Following that, entering CY2Q26, it is expected that the QoQ growth rate of DRAM's ASP will remain between 10% and 12%, while the QoQ growth rate of NAND's ASP will reach between 15% and 20%. As such an influential institution, Goldman Sachs providing such an apparently outrageous EPS valuation for 2027 indeed makes one curious. I can't help but wonder if this is perhaps a deliberate move on their part 🤔

Review of Key Points Regarding Intel at the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference

At the recent Morgan Stanley TMT conference, Intel's Chief Financial Officer shared the latest updates from the company. It was mentioned that CEO Lip-Bu Tan has taken action to share detailed data with partners, a move that has positively contributed to optimizing the yield of next-generation manufacturing technologies. Regarding the highly anticipated 18A process node, CEO Tan believes that the technology is very mature and fully capable of serving external customers. In terms of market demand, Intel's CFO pointed out that overall demand in the server sector remains strong and predicts significant growth in the server CPU market by 2026. Additionally, he warned that challenges in the supply chain are expected to become more severe next year.

Based on the above information, I have the following in-depth observations:

First, the opening of the 18A node to external customers is a core turning point. The statement from Intel's CFO confirms CEO Lip-Bu Tan's view that 18A is not only a node for internal products but is also very suitable for entering external markets. This information carries significant weight. In the past, Intel's cutting-edge processes were mainly used for its own products, but now 18A is positioned as an official foundry product. Once this node's technology matures and begins accepting external orders, Intel Foundry Services will transition from a theoretical concept to a commercially viable business.

Second, the server industry is in an upward cycle. Management emphasizes that server demand shows a broadly strong trend and predicts substantial growth in the server CPU market by 2026. This indicates that the AI wave has not squeezed the living space of CPUs; on the contrary, it has driven further expansion of server scale. After all, the operation of every GPU cluster requires massive collaboration of CPU, memory, and network resources.

Finally, Intel is expected to secure large orders in the advanced packaging field. Currently, advanced packaging has become the most critical link in the semiconductor supercycle, whether it is GPU, HBM, or chiplet technology, all highly depend on this segment. If Intel can win over major clients in packaging, it will greatly enhance the credibility of its foundry business. It is worth noting that many customers may rely on Intel's strong packaging capabilities even if they do not require Intel's wafer manufacturing nodes.

If retail investors understood some of the domestic political ecology and economic operation rules in China, they should not be obsessed with stocks like baba and Pinduoduo.

Needham Raises PTs to $850 / $330
Needham has raised the target prices for Lite and Cohr to $850 and $330, respectively.

NVIDIA plans to invest approximately $2 billion each in Lumentum and Coherent and sign long-term procurement agreements to expand CPO high-power laser production capacity, signaling that optical interconnects are emerging as critical infrastructure for AI data centers. This move suggests that the commercialization of CPO may arrive sooner than expected, while also reinforcing Lumentum’s leading position in the InP laser segment and its anticipated future growth in high-margin demand.

Broadcom has officially launched the shipment of the industry's first custom computing SoC using 2nm process technology and 3.5D Face-to-Face (F2F) packaging technology. The so-called 3.5D technology essentially combines the 2.5D interposer with true 3D chip stacking technology, significantly optimizing signal density, latency performance, and energy efficiency through a 'face-to-face' bonding approach between chips. This is not just an iteration of packaging technology, but a system-level platform—XDSiP—tailored by Broadcom for gigawatt-scale AI clusters.

In this model, Broadcom's positioning has shifted from a pure custom ASIC service provider to an XDSiP platform provider. Customers only need to focus on AI core design, while the underlying memory interfaces, I/O, and network structures are all handled by Broadcom. Currently, Fujitsu has become the first customer of this platform, marking a significant step as the related technology has moved out of the laboratory and into substantial commercial deployment.

Additionally, this platform launched by Broadcom is a major benefit for the HBM market, driving a shift in market demand from a single NVIDIA-dominated model to a new paradigm driven by both GPU and XPU. This not only acts as an amplifier for HBM demand but also brings structural development opportunities for the packaging and materials supply chain.

I am very pleased to see that the prediction about Iran's military action made yesterday at noon has finally come true. This time I was indeed quite lucky, as I accurately predicted the development of the situation.

Rocket Lab Latest Developments Analysis and Investment Outlook

Regarding the latest progress of the Neutron rocket, an incident occurred on January 21 when the first-stage fuel tank was undergoing a static water pressure test, during which a rupture occurred. In response, Rocket Lab clarified that the testing facility and the main structure did not suffer serious damage, and the manufacturing work for the next first-stage fuel tank is already underway. Subsequently, during the Q4 earnings call in February, the company updated its timeline, scheduling the next launch mission for Q4 2026.

The chain reaction brought about by this adjustment is noteworthy: if the schedule is delayed, achieving the goal of completing the second Neutron launch within 2026 may become difficult, directly bringing risks of reduced launch frequency and revenue recognition rhythm that year. For Rocket Lab, while Electron has confirmed its commercial performance capability, entering the higher payload, government orders, and constellation networking markets primarily relies on the Neutron platform. If the timeline slides back by a year, the revenue growth slope in the valuation model will undergo significant changes.

Regarding the setback Neutron encountered during the testing phase, my judgment is: this resembles a routine fluctuation in engineering validation and has not altered the company’s fundamental trend. Rocket development itself is accompanied by extremely high complexity, and conducting extreme pressure validation in structural testing is a necessary path towards maturity. Over a longer cycle, Rocket Lab's core investment logic remains solid.

Looking at the macro environment, global commercial space is in a long-term expansion phase. Whether it is the networking of low Earth orbit satellite constellations, the essential needs of national defense and security, or deep space exploration and various commercial applications, demand continues to rise. Even if the launch schedule for Neutron is delayed, the medium- to long-term demand in the industry will not dissipate.

Another potential catalyst that should not be overlooked is SpaceX. If it successfully goes public in 2026, the entire commercial space sector is expected to see greater focus and emotional premium from the capital markets. The asset securitization process of SpaceX could elevate the overall valuation center of the industry, triggering a revaluation of similar companies in the market. As one of the few publicly listed companies that currently possess actual launch achievements and medium-lift rocket planning, Rocket Lab will theoretically benefit from the influx of funds and emotional push brought about by the increase in industry heat.

Specific follow-up operational strategies have been published in the member group.

According to news disclosed by the Seoul Economic Daily on the 27th, the two giants in the storage chip industry, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, have officially started price negotiations for the second quarter and have issued price increase notifications to their customers. The current market situation is quite severe, and some small and medium-sized customers may have to accept offers that are up to twice the price of the last contract in order to ensure they can secure supply. Gartner's forecast data also indicates that the expected price increase for the year could be as high as 130%. Actual data from the spot market strongly confirms this upward trend, as the price of DDR4 8Gb products has skyrocketed from $1.3 in March of last year to $13 in February of this year.

From the supply side, manufacturers' expansion speed is clearly lagging behind the pace of demand. Samsung's current production capacity can only meet about 60% of the new demand, while SK Hynix's production capacity increase this year is also only around 7%. This supply-side expansion speed is far behind the demand growth curve driven by AI technology. A more critical signal is that there are already voices in the market indicating that next year's production capacity may be basically sold out, which means that the visibility of orders has been significantly extended.

On the demand side, the core driving engine is undergoing a qualitative change, as AI application scenarios are shifting from a single search function to Agentic AI. This encompasses multi-model cooperation, continuous reasoning, and more complex forms of intelligent agents, which have a demand for memory capacity and bandwidth that far exceeds that of traditional applications. In addition, with the increase in AI penetration on mobile phones and the acceleration of government and enterprise-level AI deployment, market demand is presenting a multi-layered cumulative state rather than a simple point explosion.

In terms of market competition, bargaining power is clearly concentrating upward to upstream manufacturers. Although large customers like Apple and NVIDIA still retain a certain bargaining advantage, the voice of small and medium-sized customers has significantly weakened. The trading model has also undergone structural changes, shifting from the previous monthly pricing market mechanism to a pre-buy model that locks in volumes on a quarterly basis.

On the macro game between the leap in productivity triggered by artificial intelligence and structural unemployment

According to the latest trading information from CME, the financial markets are beginning to incorporate the uncertainties that artificial intelligence may bring to the job market into the considerations of long-term interest rate trends. The current pricing logic indicates that the market tends to believe that loose policies will be maintained for a longer time, rather than returning to the previous expectations of a rate hike path.

Observing the forward interest rate spread linked to the overnight financing rate SOFR, an inverted yield curve phenomenon can be seen. Specifically, the 12-month interest rate spread between December 2026 and December 2027 has turned negative. This change is quite critical as it indicates that traders have overturned the previous prediction of a rate hike in 2027 and have instead bet that interest rate cuts will continue in 2027. Furthermore, the direction of the options market is also quite aggressive, with positions betting on a rate drop to 2% by the end of the year, which represents a significant difference compared to the 3.1% terminal rate priced in the current swap market.

Looking back, the general expectation among traders was that the Federal Reserve would first cut rates twice this year, by 25 basis points each time, and then restart the rate hike mode in 2027. However, with the increasing discussions about how AI impacts the labor market, this prediction is facing reassessment. Even Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has issued a warning, pointing out that the widespread application of artificial intelligence may impact employment, and monetary policy may not fully offset this effect.

Regarding the above phenomenon, my personal opinion is that although the market seems to be betting in advance on AI changing the macroeconomic cycle, we still need to remain rational. Historical experience tells us that the volatility of forward interest rate expectations has always been severe. Predicting the policy path two years from now is inherently filled with high uncertainty. Many times, this kind of forward inversion more reflects a risk hedging strategy rather than a definitive judgment about the future.