The market is completely dominated by the United States, which is equivalent to the dealer opening 10 big bets in a row. Chasing in depends entirely on whether you believe that the next bet will be big... At this time, shorting is equivalent to whether you believe that the dealer's next bet will be small... At this time, each bet has a 50%-50% probability... But from a metaphysical point of view, wouldn't it be much more normal to open a small bet and then continue to open a big bet? The daily on-chain liquidation proves this point, with the proportion of long and short liquidations being half each... At this time, those who make money are the bold ones... There are both advantages and disadvantages. When the wind is favorable, there is unlimited compounding... When the wind is unfavorable, a large amount of profit withdrawal or even damage to the principal will be caused by boldness... Due to the dominance of emotions, any analysis has lost its effect. ETFs have been flowing in significantly for 6 consecutive working days. According to the pattern of continuous inflows of ETFs in the past two months, a wave of turnover may be sold at any time... Be aware of the risks... There is no market that only enters but never exits. If the ETF continues to flow in tonight, even if it is not a new high, it will at least be a double top. If the ETF tonight's inflow turns into outflow, it will usher in a wave of adjustments on the spot.... Contract players should try to wait until around the closing of the U.S. stock market before considering how to enter the market in the safest way. In recent days, the volume has increased before and after the closing, and small adjustments began after the closing.... Now any point has no reference value, only the trend of capital inflow and outflow has reference value... Once there is a larger adjustment in the future, there are several ranges for reference. The real outbreak point of this round of main rising wave is around 75500-76500, and then it will reach the current price of 93000 without looking back. There are two pause points in the middle, (81000-78000) (75000-77000) There are a lot of turnovers at these two points, so once the adjustment starts, there is a high probability that it will stay at these two points to start rebounding. 80,000-90,000 basically came up in one go, and there was a vacuum period in between, so once the adjustment is made, it is difficult for there to be decent bullish resistance in the middle... Currently, Bitcoin's asset market value ranks seventh, and gold, which has the largest market value, has returned some funds to the circle due to the recent adjustment. This is also one of the factors for the continuous increase in volume in the past few days. A large reservoir drips into a small pool, and even if a little bit is dripped, it is a huge amount. Recently, Tether has been issuing a lot of new shares, and even if the funds are in a short-term stagnation, they still have to create funds to drive the market...An artificial bull market is still a bull market, and a false prosperity is still prosperity.

Last night, Powell's speech caused panic, and the price of bitcoin fell from 91,700 to around 87,000. The main reasons were two key remarks.
1. Don't rush to cut interest rates. Interpretation: Then the interest rate cut in December will increase uncertainty.
2. Inflation is still a long way to go to 2%. Interpretation: Expressing concerns about inflation, once it cannot be suppressed, subsequent interest rate cuts may be cold. At the same time, there is a very small probability of reversing.

Yesterday, BTC's ETF outflowed 400 million dollars. Although this number is not large, it has a huge impact on the market.

A week of large inflows, the largest inflow in one day was close to 1.2 billion dollars, but the pull was only 3,000-4,000 points. But on the first outflow day, there was a drop of about 5,000 points.

This shows that there are huge differences in funds here.
Everyone knows that the current bull market mainly depends on the inflow and outflow of spot goods.

That is, the orders given in the past few days are also based on the situation of ETFs. At this time, orders can only be made in a wretched manner.

Today is Friday, and it is expected that outflow will continue. Before next Monday, the market will not change much. Of course, when the price of the currency continues to rise and the weekly K and monthly K hit the upper level, there must be a wave of correction. After the correction, it will fluctuate at a high level.

If the weekly K of the main rising wave closes, it will basically continue to insert a needle downward in the second week and then quickly withdraw, and the high level will be horizontal for about three weeks

In the past two days, if there is a position of 90,000 or above, you can consider trying a short order. It is unlikely to see a new high before next Monday, and the stop loss can be 600 points.

#BTC☀

The trend over the past month has been basically consistent with the performance of ETFs, regardless of whether it rises or falls....
Yesterday, there was a large inflow, but the trend was very different from Monday's performance. It seems that the main force has begun to gradually reduce its holdings..

#BTC☀