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失敗是必然,終點無二致 在這場無意義的旅程裡,找點樂子。
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Recently, as a bard, my biggest feeling in building backtesting models 1. Only providing historical prices, letting the AI work freely from 0 ── The illusion is extremely severe Both Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Opus4.6 yield the same results Even when I hinted multiple times that the strategy might have issues, they still couldn't find the problem 2. Providing historical prices + specific ideas, allowing the AI to confirm the requirements multiple times ── The results are closer to the requirements Gemini provides me with higher accuracy and tends not to do things outside of the task Claude may do things outside of the task, but overall both can achieve the functionality I need
Recently, as a bard, my biggest feeling in building backtesting models

1. Only providing historical prices, letting the AI work freely from 0
── The illusion is extremely severe

Both Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Opus4.6 yield the same results
Even when I hinted multiple times that the strategy might have issues, they still couldn't find the problem

2. Providing historical prices + specific ideas, allowing the AI to confirm the requirements multiple times
── The results are closer to the requirements

Gemini provides me with higher accuracy and tends not to do things outside of the task
Claude may do things outside of the task, but overall both can achieve the functionality I need
Binance Alpha launches a new gameplay "Alpha Blind Box" Core Concept: What is the Alpha Blind Box? Random Reward: Users will randomly receive equivalent tokens of a certain item in the blind box after redeeming points. Return Opportunity: The blind box may contain previously concluded Alpha projects. First Event Details Start Time: February 11, 2026 (The official token list and thresholds will be announced that day on the X official account) Mechanism: First come, first served, until supplies last. Dynamic Threshold: The initial point threshold will automatically decrease by 5 points every 5 minutes until the rewards are claimed. Personal Thoughts: It feels like the gameplay is not very different; it just becomes randomly giving out tokens.
Binance Alpha launches a new gameplay "Alpha Blind Box"

Core Concept: What is the Alpha Blind Box?

Random Reward: Users will randomly receive equivalent tokens of a certain item in the blind box after redeeming points.
Return Opportunity: The blind box may contain previously concluded Alpha projects.

First Event Details
Start Time: February 11, 2026
(The official token list and thresholds will be announced that day on the X official account)
Mechanism: First come, first served, until supplies last.
Dynamic Threshold: The initial point threshold will automatically decrease by 5 points every 5 minutes until the rewards are claimed.

Personal Thoughts:
It feels like the gameplay is not very different; it just becomes randomly giving out tokens.
The $ETH second-level fluctuations occurring in the early morning were 3~5% The real issue is with the market makers The total trading volume dropped instantly by 1/5 at 1% 60 million > minimum 13 million Binance, OKX, bybit are all involved, even the less popular bitfinex is too Those who can make money on this, I believe, are monitoring this point, anticipating that the issue is with the market makers, and they quickly come back to arbitrate.
The $ETH second-level fluctuations occurring in the early morning were 3~5%
The real issue is with the market makers

The total trading volume dropped instantly by 1/5 at 1%
60 million > minimum 13 million
Binance, OKX, bybit are all involved, even the less popular bitfinex is too

Those who can make money on this, I believe, are monitoring this point, anticipating that the issue is with the market makers, and they quickly come back to arbitrate.
《 Privacy is the last ticket to enter the financial circle 》 ── Don't let your ledger become public intelligence in the market Recently, the high point of Bitcoin has excited everyone, but have you ever thought about why the real "big players" and "financial institutions" are always watching from the sidelines? Because the core of the financial industry has never been just about transactions, but about "privacy" and "compliance". This is what I have been looking at recently ── Dusk Network (DUSK). ▋ Why is it a "financial-specific" underlying chain? Imagine, if you are a bank, would you dare to do business on a public ledger where even your neighbors can see how much money you have left? Absolutely not. The strength of Dusk lies in its solution to these two pain points: True zero-knowledge encryption (ZK-Proofs): Through the built-in PLONK technology, you can prove that you "have money to buy this bond," but do not need to reveal "how much money you have in your pocket." Just adequate "transparency": It is not to evade regulation, but to satisfy it. Through selective auditing functions, law enforcement can conduct compliance checks when necessary, which complies with regulations such as the EU MiCA. ▋ The key turning point in 2026 If you still think it is just an experiment, you may have missed the details: Mainnet officially launched: Dusk officially launched its mainnet in January 2026, marking its transition from the technical development phase to the real "practical phase." RWA (real-world assets) on-chain: The Dutch stock exchange NPEX has already initiated over 200 million euros in security tokenization testing on Dusk. This is not about speculating on memes, but about tangible asset transfers. The explosion of DuskEVM: Allows Ethereum developers to seamlessly connect while gaining contract capabilities with privacy protection. #dusk $DUSK @Dusk
《 Privacy is the last ticket to enter the financial circle 》
── Don't let your ledger become public intelligence in the market

Recently, the high point of Bitcoin has excited everyone, but have you ever thought about why the real "big players" and "financial institutions" are always watching from the sidelines?
Because the core of the financial industry has never been just about transactions, but about "privacy" and "compliance".
This is what I have been looking at recently ── Dusk Network (DUSK).

▋ Why is it a "financial-specific" underlying chain?
Imagine, if you are a bank, would you dare to do business on a public ledger where even your neighbors can see how much money you have left? Absolutely not.
The strength of Dusk lies in its solution to these two pain points:
True zero-knowledge encryption (ZK-Proofs):
Through the built-in PLONK technology, you can prove that you "have money to buy this bond," but do not need to reveal "how much money you have in your pocket."
Just adequate "transparency":
It is not to evade regulation, but to satisfy it. Through selective auditing functions, law enforcement can conduct compliance checks when necessary, which complies with regulations such as the EU MiCA.

▋ The key turning point in 2026
If you still think it is just an experiment, you may have missed the details:
Mainnet officially launched: Dusk officially launched its mainnet in January 2026, marking its transition from the technical development phase to the real "practical phase."
RWA (real-world assets) on-chain: The Dutch stock exchange NPEX has already initiated over 200 million euros in security tokenization testing on Dusk. This is not about speculating on memes, but about tangible asset transfers.
The explosion of DuskEVM: Allows Ethereum developers to seamlessly connect while gaining contract capabilities with privacy protection.

#dusk $DUSK @Dusk
Computer virus, Binance account emptied ── Attack Core: Computer Virus Sharing the article I saw yesterday on Threads I found it very interesting and discussed it with Gemini The victim used a Windows computer, and the attack steps may be Downloading unknown files > Infecting with information-stealing malware ⬇ Stealing Session Cookies, browser fingerprints ⬇ Fingerprint browser loads the victim's fingerprint ⬇ Using SOCKS5 proxy, making the traffic appear to come from the victim's IP (or nearby area) ⬇ Successfully logging in, directly binding Passkey with the hacker's YubiKey on the web (This part I find very puzzling, why Binance added Passkey without going through 2FA, I have tested and confirmed it is indeed not required) ⬇ Funds transferred, entering a mixer After reading, my biggest feeling is that logging into Binance on an insecure computer is really very vulnerable, although the biggest problem is the user, I really believe that Binance should force the use of 2FA when adding Passkey, and even mobile SMS should be verified.
Computer virus, Binance account emptied
── Attack Core: Computer Virus

Sharing the article I saw yesterday on Threads

I found it very interesting and discussed it with Gemini
The victim used a Windows computer, and the attack steps may be

Downloading unknown files > Infecting with information-stealing malware

Stealing Session Cookies, browser fingerprints

Fingerprint browser loads the victim's fingerprint

Using SOCKS5 proxy, making the traffic appear to come from the victim's IP (or nearby area)

Successfully logging in, directly binding Passkey with the hacker's YubiKey on the web
(This part I find very puzzling, why Binance added Passkey without going through 2FA, I have tested and confirmed it is indeed not required)

Funds transferred, entering a mixer

After reading, my biggest feeling is that logging into Binance on an insecure computer is really very vulnerable, although the biggest problem is the user, I really believe that Binance should force the use of 2FA when adding Passkey, and even mobile SMS should be verified.
Investment research was done, but I missed the opportunity with ASTER It seems the profit is 30 to 50 times the cost At that time, after the investment research, I had doubts about the reallocation of APX I felt that the valuation was right in the market; if there was real interest, it would be better to buy directly But in hindsight, I was wrong CZ's public support has a very effective impact on the market Prices still need stories to support them; awareness still needs improvement Next, I can only seize opportunities with certain returns, such as buidlpad's FF
Investment research was done, but I missed the opportunity with ASTER
It seems the profit is 30 to 50 times the cost

At that time, after the investment research, I had doubts about the reallocation of APX
I felt that the valuation was right in the market; if there was real interest, it would be better to buy directly

But in hindsight, I was wrong

CZ's public support has a very effective impact on the market
Prices still need stories to support them; awareness still needs improvement

Next, I can only seize opportunities with certain returns, such as buidlpad's FF
The bull market is a trap for novicesNovices always think that the bull market will only go up, and if it goes down a bit, it’s time to buy. Stud easily, thinking about reaching the sky in one step​ ​ That’s what I thought 4 years ago, and I lost a lot. ​ The contract leverage is fully activated, and when I wake up, I receive a text message stating that the margin is insufficient. ​ "When I woke up, the position was gone."​ ​ I couldn't sleep well for several nights. I thought I was printing money, but in the end I was giving money away. ​ Until you lose to a certain level and you can’t stand it anymore​ I started to bow my head and learn from the market, and finally survived in the bear market​ ​ You ask, how do we old leeks survive?​

The bull market is a trap for novices

Novices always think that the bull market will only go up, and if it goes down a bit, it’s time to buy.
Stud easily, thinking about reaching the sky in one step​

That’s what I thought 4 years ago, and I lost a lot.

The contract leverage is fully activated, and when I wake up, I receive a text message stating that the margin is insufficient.

"When I woke up, the position was gone."​

I couldn't sleep well for several nights. I thought I was printing money, but in the end I was giving money away.

Until you lose to a certain level and you can’t stand it anymore​
I started to bow my head and learn from the market, and finally survived in the bear market​

You ask, how do we old leeks survive?​
Bitcoin is almost 100,000, which reminds me of the "Shalling point"​A simple explanation of Schelling's point : The coordination point or common choice where humans naturally gather in the absence of communication.​ (a psychological expectation)​ ​ The first time I heard about it was from the legendary trader GCR, he said​ ​ : Schelling point can be a support position or a resistance position​ ​ I predict that after Bitcoin reaches 100,000, it will fluctuate more violently​ Because historically, integer digits have indeed fluctuated a lot:​ ​ • Bitcoin rises to 30k: Rise to 33k, then down 20%​ • Bitcoin rises to 40k: Rise to 41k, then down 31%​

Bitcoin is almost 100,000, which reminds me of the "Shalling point"​

A simple explanation of Schelling's point
: The coordination point or common choice where humans naturally gather in the absence of communication.​
(a psychological expectation)​

The first time I heard about it was from the legendary trader GCR, he said​

: Schelling point can be a support position or a resistance position​

I predict that after Bitcoin reaches 100,000, it will fluctuate more violently​
Because historically, integer digits have indeed fluctuated a lot:​

• Bitcoin rises to 30k: Rise to 33k, then down 20%​
• Bitcoin rises to 40k: Rise to 41k, then down 31%​
Why is it more uncomfortable to be trapped than to be stuck?​── Because if you’re stuck, you can stick together, but if you’re in trouble, you can only blame yourself. ​ ▋Contrast effect​ When you see others posting orders but you don’t have any, you will have a strong sense of contrast​ ​ : It’s hard enough not making any money, but I still have to watch you post orders​ : If I had also bought...​ ​ The sense of loss is magnified again and the sense of regret lingers. You may even feel insecure about losing control, feeling that you have missed out and will never get another opportunity. ​ Being in the air can also cause fear (FOMO)​ Worried about missing out on the market, you start to place bets without following the strategy, without realizing that you are gambling.

Why is it more uncomfortable to be trapped than to be stuck?​

── Because if you’re stuck, you can stick together, but if you’re in trouble, you can only blame yourself.

▋Contrast effect​
When you see others posting orders but you don’t have any, you will have a strong sense of contrast​

: It’s hard enough not making any money, but I still have to watch you post orders​
: If I had also bought...​

The sense of loss is magnified again and the sense of regret lingers.
You may even feel insecure about losing control, feeling that you have missed out and will never get another opportunity.

Being in the air can also cause fear (FOMO)​
Worried about missing out on the market, you start to place bets without following the strategy, without realizing that you are gambling.
Article
It only takes 1 minute to check the market sentiment instantly── Take advantage of Google search volume trends​​ ​​ When people want to know about a specific currency, they will search on Google​​ For example, the search volume of Dogecoin and Bitcoin has surged recently, and the sentiment is at a new high in the past year​​​ ​ However, as long as market sentiment is high, there will be many high points in history​​ ​​ ▋When the sea water recedes, you will know who is not wearing pants​​ ​ • April 2021 is the highest point of Dogecoin search volume, with a drop of -80%​​​ • In March 2024, Bitcoin search volume increased significantly and fell by -33%​​ ​​ Although it is impossible to predict where the peak search volume will be​​​

It only takes 1 minute to check the market sentiment instantly

── Take advantage of Google search volume trends​​
​​
When people want to know about a specific currency, they will search on Google​​
For example, the search volume of Dogecoin and Bitcoin has surged recently, and the sentiment is at a new high in the past year​​​

However, as long as market sentiment is high, there will be many high points in history​​
​​
▋When the sea water recedes, you will know who is not wearing pants​​

• April 2021 is the highest point of Dogecoin search volume, with a drop of -80%​​​
• In March 2024, Bitcoin search volume increased significantly and fell by -33%​​
​​
Although it is impossible to predict where the peak search volume will be​​​
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