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龚有柴GongYouchai
@GongYouchai
一個比特幣老玩家,YT及X同名
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The essence of trading is actually a profound battle with the inner self. You think trading is just staring at the screen, relying on technical indicators and strategies to decide to buy and sell, as if you are in a fierce confrontation with the market. But the real trading world reveals a truth: this is an inner battle. You need to overcome greed, overcome fear, get rid of impatience when making profits and hesitation when losing money, and avoid the impulse to blindly follow the trend. All this has nothing to do with the market itself, but is rooted in your own heart. Therefore, rather than saying that trading is a game with the market, it is better to say that in the process of trading, we are always fighting with our own human nature. Trading often requires us to act against the instinct of human nature. Just like athletes, to win in the trading field, you need strong psychological quality, stable emotions, firm beliefs and strict trading discipline. Of course, the opportunities of the times, the dividends of the industry and a certain amount of luck are also important factors for success. A successful trading cycle can be roughly regarded as composed of 70% mentality, 20% luck and 10% trading skills. You need to use that 70% of your mentality to gain insight into market trends, and with the help of 20% of luck and 10% of trading skills, you can capture opportunities in the market and achieve profit growth. #圣诞行情预测
The essence of trading is actually a profound battle with the inner self.
You think trading is just staring at the screen, relying on technical indicators and strategies to decide to buy and sell, as if you are in a fierce confrontation with the market.
But the real trading world reveals a truth: this is an inner battle. You need to overcome greed, overcome fear, get rid of impatience when making profits and hesitation when losing money, and avoid the impulse to blindly follow the trend.
All this has nothing to do with the market itself, but is rooted in your own heart. Therefore, rather than saying that trading is a game with the market, it is better to say that in the process of trading, we are always fighting with our own human nature. Trading often requires us to act against the instinct of human nature.
Just like athletes, to win in the trading field, you need strong psychological quality, stable emotions, firm beliefs and strict trading discipline. Of course, the opportunities of the times, the dividends of the industry and a certain amount of luck are also important factors for success.
A successful trading cycle can be roughly regarded as composed of 70% mentality, 20% luck and 10% trading skills. You need to use that 70% of your mentality to gain insight into market trends, and with the help of 20% of luck and 10% of trading skills, you can capture opportunities in the market and achieve profit growth. #圣诞行情预测
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Many people have not mentioned the differences between bull and bear markets: In a bear market, prices often rise rapidly first and then slowly decline. In contrast, during a bull market, prices may suddenly drop, but then gradually recover. Before a bear market arrives, there is a constant stream of negative news globally, yet prices often rise. On the eve of a bull market, despite frequent negative news, there are occasionally positive updates. In a bear market, some cryptocurrencies experience severe price fluctuations, alternating between rises and falls. In a bull market, most cryptocurrencies' prices continue to climb. The characteristic of a bear market is that, within one to two years, the value of most altcoins may evaporate by more than 90%. Currently, altcoins have already fallen by 90%, and they may continue to decline in the future. Only a few promising cryptocurrencies can survive a bear market and shine in the next bull market. During a bear market, there are more bearish candles than bullish ones on the candlestick chart, reflecting that prices mainly fluctuate and decline. Retail investors find it difficult to profit and are mostly in a state of loss. The characteristic of a bull market is that trading volume and market activity continue to increase. There are more bullish candles than bearish ones on the candlestick chart, prices rarely drop, and most retail investors can make a profit, with losses being less frequent.
Many people have not mentioned the differences between bull and bear markets:

In a bear market, prices often rise rapidly first and then slowly decline. In contrast, during a bull market, prices may suddenly drop, but then gradually recover.

Before a bear market arrives, there is a constant stream of negative news globally, yet prices often rise.
On the eve of a bull market, despite frequent negative news, there are occasionally positive updates.

In a bear market, some cryptocurrencies experience severe price fluctuations, alternating between rises and falls. In a bull market, most cryptocurrencies' prices continue to climb.

The characteristic of a bear market is that, within one to two years, the value of most altcoins may evaporate by more than 90%. Currently, altcoins have already fallen by 90%, and they may continue to decline in the future. Only a few promising cryptocurrencies can survive a bear market and shine in the next bull market. During a bear market, there are more bearish candles than bullish ones on the candlestick chart, reflecting that prices mainly fluctuate and decline. Retail investors find it difficult to profit and are mostly in a state of loss.
The characteristic of a bull market is that trading volume and market activity continue to increase. There are more bullish candles than bearish ones on the candlestick chart, prices rarely drop, and most retail investors can make a profit, with losses being less frequent.
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First, the interest rate cut cycle is still ongoing. Although the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts have decreased, the United States is still in an interest rate cut cycle, and this has not changed. Second, a strong economy is key. More importantly, the U.S. economy remains very strong. As long as the economy maintains its strong momentum and corporate revenue is good, the market will naturally perform well. After all, an economic recovery means increased corporate profits, which will naturally lead to more abundant liquidity. Overall, there is actually no need for excessive concern. Although the Federal Reserve has reduced the number of rate cuts, market liquidity has not been weakened; rather, it may become more abundant due to the strong performance of the economy. #比特币市场波动观察
First, the interest rate cut cycle is still ongoing. Although the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts have decreased, the United States is still in an interest rate cut cycle, and this has not changed.
Second, a strong economy is key. More importantly, the U.S. economy remains very strong. As long as the economy maintains its strong momentum and corporate revenue is good, the market will naturally perform well. After all, an economic recovery means increased corporate profits, which will naturally lead to more abundant liquidity.
Overall, there is actually no need for excessive concern. Although the Federal Reserve has reduced the number of rate cuts, market liquidity has not been weakened; rather, it may become more abundant due to the strong performance of the economy. #比特币市场波动观察
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Every time Bitcoin falls, some people worry that the bull market is over. But judging from the current price level of Bitcoin, a 10,000-point correction is actually just a small fluctuation. From the highest point, it has only fallen by 10%. In a bull market, a 10% correction is a common phenomenon. One of the characteristics of a bull market is frequent pin-points and dives, but the overall trend is that the price of the currency continues to rise. A short squat is to jump higher next time. #市场调整後的机会?
Every time Bitcoin falls, some people worry that the bull market is over.
But judging from the current price level of Bitcoin, a 10,000-point correction is actually just a small fluctuation. From the highest point, it has only fallen by 10%. In a bull market, a 10% correction is a common phenomenon. One of the characteristics of a bull market is frequent pin-points and dives, but the overall trend is that the price of the currency continues to rise. A short squat is to jump higher next time. #市场调整後的机会?
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Although the market seems to be dominated by Bitcoin and many people have lost confidence in altcoins, I am still optimistic about the future of altcoins: This is just the beginning, and there are many potential positive factors between December and March that will drive the market up. Don't be influenced by the words of those bears, who always predict that the market will fall to $80,000 or $70,000, or predict that there will be a black swan event that will cause a super crash. Being so pessimistic in the bull market, I suggest you exit the market early. #加密市场盘整 Although altcoins have adjusted recently, they are expected to continue to rise after the adjustment. In this case, it is not recommended to chase those currencies that have already risen, but to focus on those strong currencies that have adjusted for a month or have experienced a plunge. These currencies have great opportunities. As for investment, it is the same sentence. Find a currency that makes you feel at ease, buy it at the right price, and ensure that there is enough cost-effectiveness and confidence. This is the most suitable investment method for ordinary people.
Although the market seems to be dominated by Bitcoin and many people have lost confidence in altcoins, I am still optimistic about the future of altcoins:
This is just the beginning, and there are many potential positive factors between December and March that will drive the market up. Don't be influenced by the words of those bears, who always predict that the market will fall to $80,000 or $70,000, or predict that there will be a black swan event that will cause a super crash. Being so pessimistic in the bull market, I suggest you exit the market early.
#加密市场盘整
Although altcoins have adjusted recently, they are expected to continue to rise after the adjustment. In this case, it is not recommended to chase those currencies that have already risen, but to focus on those strong currencies that have adjusted for a month or have experienced a plunge. These currencies have great opportunities.
As for investment, it is the same sentence. Find a currency that makes you feel at ease, buy it at the right price, and ensure that there is enough cost-effectiveness and confidence. This is the most suitable investment method for ordinary people.
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Many novice investors still have a superficial understanding of bull markets and often make seemingly profound comments. Every time a bull market begins, there are always those who claim 'this time it's different,' citing the surge in the number of cryptocurrencies in the market. However, in every bull market, at least 90% of coins will experience a rise, but only high-quality coins can maintain their elevated positions for longer, while those with mediocre popularity may only shine for a short time. We need to recognize that the purpose of the main players in driving up coin prices is not to make everyone wealthy, but to attract more investors to participate, thereby realizing their profits. Sometimes, a few billion dollars may sound like a huge amount, but to market controllers, this is not the true wealth in their eyes.
Many novice investors still have a superficial understanding of bull markets and often make seemingly profound comments. Every time a bull market begins, there are always those who claim 'this time it's different,' citing the surge in the number of cryptocurrencies in the market. However, in every bull market, at least 90% of coins will experience a rise, but only high-quality coins can maintain their elevated positions for longer, while those with mediocre popularity may only shine for a short time. We need to recognize that the purpose of the main players in driving up coin prices is not to make everyone wealthy, but to attract more investors to participate, thereby realizing their profits. Sometimes, a few billion dollars may sound like a huge amount, but to market controllers, this is not the true wealth in their eyes.
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The belief of the bulls is: The bull market has arrived, and the market trend will only be a volatile upward movement. Even if there are declines, there will be a quick rebound. Once you exit the market, it will be difficult to re-enter. The market gradually pushes up the bottom in this anxious state, leading to a continuous rise. Therefore, the earlier you fully invest, the better. The viewpoint of the bears is: Bitcoin continues to rise, but altcoins seem to be bleeding, and the prices of altcoins are already quite high. As long as Bitcoin has a slight pullback, altcoins are likely to continue to plummet. Therefore, choosing to short at high positions is advisable, and there is no need to rush to fully invest, as there will be opportunities to acquire at lower prices in the future. #市场全线看牛? Are people leaning towards bulls or bears?
The belief of the bulls is: The bull market has arrived, and the market trend will only be a volatile upward movement. Even if there are declines, there will be a quick rebound. Once you exit the market, it will be difficult to re-enter. The market gradually pushes up the bottom in this anxious state, leading to a continuous rise. Therefore, the earlier you fully invest, the better.
The viewpoint of the bears is: Bitcoin continues to rise, but altcoins seem to be bleeding, and the prices of altcoins are already quite high. As long as Bitcoin has a slight pullback, altcoins are likely to continue to plummet. Therefore, choosing to short at high positions is advisable, and there is no need to rush to fully invest, as there will be opportunities to acquire at lower prices in the future.
#市场全线看牛?
Are people leaning towards bulls or bears?
多头
51%
空头
49%
1623 votes • Voting closed
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Fluctuations in rise and fall are the norm in the market; there is no market that only rises without falling forever. If you cannot bear the risk of a pullback, do not invest all your funds or hold on to long positions stubbornly. Instead, focus on short-term trading and keep some cash on hand for safety! The market often magnifies your greed and desire, and then teaches you a lesson when emotions reach their peak, especially for those who frequently trade contracts. In the cryptocurrency space, finding a trading style that suits you is crucial. Choosing methods that align with your principles and strategies is the key.
Fluctuations in rise and fall are the norm in the market; there is no market that only rises without falling forever.
If you cannot bear the risk of a pullback, do not invest all your funds or hold on to long positions stubbornly. Instead, focus on short-term trading and keep some cash on hand for safety! The market often magnifies your greed and desire, and then teaches you a lesson when emotions reach their peak, especially for those who frequently trade contracts.
In the cryptocurrency space, finding a trading style that suits you is crucial. Choosing methods that align with your principles and strategies is the key.
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Late tonight, at 03:00 on the morning of the 19th, the results of the interest rate cut will be announced. If there are no accidents, the interest rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points. For January, it seems unlikely that the interest rate will be cut, but Trump may bring some variables after taking office. After the interest rate cut results are announced, it is recommended that you can clean up your contract positions appropriately, because after Trump takes office, the real altcoin season may be coming. Friends who hold spot coins should not be thrown off by market fluctuations. This may be an opportunity to make a hundred times the coin, hold it firmly! Stay calm!
Late tonight, at 03:00 on the morning of the 19th, the results of the interest rate cut will be announced. If there are no accidents, the interest rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points.
For January, it seems unlikely that the interest rate will be cut, but Trump may bring some variables after taking office.
After the interest rate cut results are announced, it is recommended that you can clean up your contract positions appropriately, because after Trump takes office, the real altcoin season may be coming. Friends who hold spot coins should not be thrown off by market fluctuations.
This may be an opportunity to make a hundred times the coin, hold it firmly! Stay calm!
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Let’s talk about the mentality of contract trading: Many people feel that they are in control of the contract, but in fact they are controlled by the contract. Their emotions fluctuate with the market, sometimes excited and sometimes frustrated. This mentality can easily lead to typical novice operations - chasing the rise and killing the fall. On impulse, they may increase their positions, often resulting in liquidation. What's more, some people use loans to play with contracts. I can responsibly say that from the moment you decide to take out a loan to sign a contract, you are doomed to fail. If you borrow money to enter the market, you have already lost mentally.
Let’s talk about the mentality of contract trading:
Many people feel that they are in control of the contract, but in fact they are controlled by the contract. Their emotions fluctuate with the market, sometimes excited and sometimes frustrated. This mentality can easily lead to typical novice operations - chasing the rise and killing the fall. On impulse, they may increase their positions, often resulting in liquidation. What's more, some people use loans to play with contracts.
I can responsibly say that from the moment you decide to take out a loan to sign a contract, you are doomed to fail. If you borrow money to enter the market, you have already lost mentally.
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Share two points of view: First, during a bull market, do not blindly chase after altcoins and air tokens. This is not their bull market; the so-called altcoin season is often self-deception. Just look at how many altcoins can break through their previous highs now? Second, many people are feeling anxious now. They chose to stay out during the bull market and now hesitate to buy in when entering the market—prices keep rising, and they become even more hesitant, resulting in a continuous decline in the purchasing power of their fiat currency. Investors in these two situations often do not have a deep enough understanding of the crypto market.
Share two points of view:
First, during a bull market, do not blindly chase after altcoins and air tokens. This is not their bull market; the so-called altcoin season is often self-deception. Just look at how many altcoins can break through their previous highs now?
Second, many people are feeling anxious now. They chose to stay out during the bull market and now hesitate to buy in when entering the market—prices keep rising, and they become even more hesitant, resulting in a continuous decline in the purchasing power of their fiat currency.
Investors in these two situations often do not have a deep enough understanding of the crypto market.
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Investing often goes against our instinctive reactions. Think about this: if your principal is $10,000, you might rush to withdraw when you make a profit of $1,000 or even $2,000, but if you lose $2,000, you might hold on and not sell, or even increase your position. Why? Liquidation often occurs because of this mindset of greed and unwillingness to accept loss..#BTC再创新高
Investing often goes against our instinctive reactions. Think about this: if your principal is $10,000, you might rush to withdraw when you make a profit of $1,000 or even $2,000, but if you lose $2,000, you might hold on and not sell, or even increase your position. Why? Liquidation often occurs because of this mindset of greed and unwillingness to accept loss..#BTC再创新高
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Why do crashes frequently occur in bull markets? This is mainly because the market needs to be drastically cleaned. In a bull market, retail investors have a strong willingness to hold shares and are very sticky. If they do not crash, it is difficult to clean them out of the market. Sometimes, continuous crashes are even required to force most retail investors to sell and leave. Some people may ask, why do we need to clean retail investors? Isn't it good for everyone to make money together in the currency circle? In fact, this is not the case. In the absence of new capital inflows, if retail investors are not cleaned, the main force will need to pay a huge capital cost when raising the price of the currency. Because in the process of pulling up, once retail investors make a profit, they will choose to leave the market, which will greatly increase the resistance of the main force to pull up, as if the main force is "carrying the sedan chair" for retail investors. If retail investors are cleaned out by means such as crashes, when retail investors cut their losses and leave the market, the main force can not only make a profit, but also help to further raise the price of the currency in the later stage.
Why do crashes frequently occur in bull markets?
This is mainly because the market needs to be drastically cleaned.
In a bull market, retail investors have a strong willingness to hold shares and are very sticky. If they do not crash, it is difficult to clean them out of the market. Sometimes, continuous crashes are even required to force most retail investors to sell and leave.
Some people may ask, why do we need to clean retail investors?
Isn't it good for everyone to make money together in the currency circle?
In fact, this is not the case. In the absence of new capital inflows, if retail investors are not cleaned, the main force will need to pay a huge capital cost when raising the price of the currency. Because in the process of pulling up, once retail investors make a profit, they will choose to leave the market, which will greatly increase the resistance of the main force to pull up, as if the main force is "carrying the sedan chair" for retail investors.
If retail investors are cleaned out by means such as crashes, when retail investors cut their losses and leave the market, the main force can not only make a profit, but also help to further raise the price of the currency in the later stage.
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Don't rush to predict when the bull market will end, unless all sectors in the market have rotated through. Unless faced with a significant black swan event, the market will not experience a sudden sharp decline; the flames of the bull market are still burning. #BTC持续刷新高点
Don't rush to predict when the bull market will end, unless all sectors in the market have rotated through. Unless faced with a significant black swan event, the market will not experience a sudden sharp decline; the flames of the bull market are still burning. #BTC持续刷新高点
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To succeed in a bull market, the key lies in the following points: First, focus on quality assets and do not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations. Second, act according to a predetermined plan and avoid blindly following the crowd. Third, enhance your sensitivity to the market and seize core investment opportunities. Remember, a bull market is often a feast for the few, and rationality, discipline, and execution are the keys to winning.
To succeed in a bull market, the key lies in the following points:
First, focus on quality assets and do not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations. Second, act according to a predetermined plan and avoid blindly following the crowd. Third, enhance your sensitivity to the market and seize core investment opportunities.
Remember, a bull market is often a feast for the few, and rationality, discipline, and execution are the keys to winning.
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Conduct a small survey: Are you currently still buying BTC and ETH?
Conduct a small survey:
Are you currently still buying BTC and ETH?
有,刚才还在买
36%
没买了,拿着现货没动
43%
在逐渐出货
21%
58 votes • Voting closed
See original
Think about it, every time the market has a new trend and new opportunities arise, have you missed a good chance due to your previous greed, and now feel heartbroken when you think back? So, we need to learn from our lessons and not let greed become a stumbling block again. Friends, broaden your perspective a bit. The next four years will be a real policy dividend period in the cryptocurrency field. As long as you have enough patience, are willing to invest time, and steadily lay the groundwork, then wealth growth is indeed just around the corner. Remember, haste makes waste; don't be anxious or impatient, take steady steps towards the road to financial freedom.
Think about it, every time the market has a new trend and new opportunities arise, have you missed a good chance due to your previous greed, and now feel heartbroken when you think back? So, we need to learn from our lessons and not let greed become a stumbling block again.
Friends, broaden your perspective a bit. The next four years will be a real policy dividend period in the cryptocurrency field. As long as you have enough patience, are willing to invest time, and steadily lay the groundwork, then wealth growth is indeed just around the corner.
Remember, haste makes waste; don't be anxious or impatient, take steady steps towards the road to financial freedom.
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The rise of altcoins can be seen as a combination of Bitcoin's breakthrough and Ethereum's trend. Bitcoin leads the market's movements, while Ethereum drives the market's preference for risk assets. When Ethereum breaks through the 2021 high, that will be the real sign that the altcoin season has begun: 1. Ethereum's rise drives the strong performance of mainstream assets; 2. Only after mainstream assets rise will funds gradually shift towards those high-risk altcoins. This creates a clear transmission path: starting with Bitcoin, passing through Ethereum, and ultimately igniting the altcoin season. #山寨季何时到来?
The rise of altcoins can be seen as a combination of Bitcoin's breakthrough and Ethereum's trend.
Bitcoin leads the market's movements, while Ethereum drives the market's preference for risk assets.
When Ethereum breaks through the 2021 high, that will be the real sign that the altcoin season has begun:
1. Ethereum's rise drives the strong performance of mainstream assets;
2. Only after mainstream assets rise will funds gradually shift towards those high-risk altcoins.
This creates a clear transmission path: starting with Bitcoin, passing through Ethereum, and ultimately igniting the altcoin season. #山寨季何时到来?
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To be honest, the essence of investing lies in: even the best coin will lose money if you buy at a high price and sell at a loss during a correction; conversely, even a coin that is looked down upon can make you money as long as you buy at a low price and sell at a high price. #AVA突破3美元
To be honest, the essence of investing lies in: even the best coin will lose money if you buy at a high price and sell at a loss during a correction; conversely, even a coin that is looked down upon can make you money as long as you buy at a low price and sell at a high price. #AVA突破3美元
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The craze for altcoins often erupts after Bitcoin surges. We can divide this process into three stages: First Stage: Bitcoin Reigns Supreme Expected Time: From Bitcoin halving in 2024 to early 2025. During this stage, Bitcoin will become the focus of the market, with funds primarily chasing 'digital gold,' while altcoins remain relatively quiet. Second Stage: Ethereum Leads the Smart Contract Wave Expected Time: First half of 2025. At this time, institutional funds begin to shift towards smart contract and infrastructure assets, and platforms like Ethereum will welcome their spring. Third Stage: A Tangle of Frenzy and Panic Expected Time: Mid-2025 to the end of the year. With a massive influx of retail investors, the market will see various 'meme coins' competing to shine, with rapid capital flow. In this stage, discerning real opportunities from potential traps becomes especially crucial. Are you ready to embrace this crazy altcoin bull market?
The craze for altcoins often erupts after Bitcoin surges. We can divide this process into three stages:
First Stage: Bitcoin Reigns Supreme
Expected Time: From Bitcoin halving in 2024 to early 2025. During this stage, Bitcoin will become the focus of the market, with funds primarily chasing 'digital gold,' while altcoins remain relatively quiet.
Second Stage: Ethereum Leads the Smart Contract Wave
Expected Time: First half of 2025. At this time, institutional funds begin to shift towards smart contract and infrastructure assets, and platforms like Ethereum will welcome their spring.
Third Stage: A Tangle of Frenzy and Panic
Expected Time: Mid-2025 to the end of the year. With a massive influx of retail investors, the market will see various 'meme coins' competing to shine, with rapid capital flow. In this stage, discerning real opportunities from potential traps becomes especially crucial.

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