📊Result of inflation in the USA and the reaction of crypto
Fresh data on inflation (CPI) in the USA came out slightly above expectations — +3% year-on-year. This means that the Fed is unlikely to rush to lower rates, as the target is still a stable 2%.
🔥At first glance, the figure is not critical, but for the market, it is a signal — cheap money will not be available for now. This means that liquidity is limited, and risk assets like crypto feel the pressure.
💡On the other hand, prolonged high inflation undermines confidence in the dollar. And some investors traditionally seek an "alternative" during such periods — in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
📈As a result — the market reaction may be mixed: • in the short term — a correction is possible, • but in the medium term — an increase in interest in crypto as a protective asset.
So let's keep an eye on the Fed's rhetoric — it will determine the direction of the next impulse 🚀
🪙We observe a similar picture with ETH as with BTC — a local uptrend is forming. Therefore, updating the local high around 4100 is just a matter of time.
✔️The key level of 3800 has been successfully held: the candle from October 10 closed above this mark, and the recent dip below was merely a retest of the left shadow.
The main liquidity for Ethereum is concentrated around 4300, where serious resistance is present.
I am opening a long position at the current prices, additionally placing a limit order at $3850.
🪙We are observing a confident consolidation above 110 thousand BTC.✔️ As planned in this scenario - I am opening a long position. A local uptrend is currently forming: the lows are rising, and judging by the structure, we will soon update the local maximum.
The main target is the area of 115–116 thousand, where a large amount of liquidity is concentrated (the stop losses of short sellers are on the right side of the volume scale).
I am entering at current prices partially, and for the second part, I am placing a limit order at 108 thousand.
Let's analyze the situation with FIL/USDT - once a very promising project. I used to trade it often.
Currently, we are observing a large shadow of purchases, but there is no confirmation of these purchases yet - I wouldn't get into it if I were you.
Only in the case of a return to 2-3 $ and trading within this range will there be a chance to reach 5-6 $ and above. But, I repeat, confirmation is needed - and that will be the return to 2-3 $.
⚠️So I highly recommend against getting into this asset right now!
I will only start thinking about medium-term positions downwards after a confident consolidation of the price below 100,000. Until that happens, it's too early for me to talk about shorts.
Yes, I understand — many are waiting for a decline. After the market was shaken up on October 10 and dropped everything by several percent, most have come to believe that from here on it’s only down.
But let's look at it objectively: BTC is still trading above 100,000. That in itself is a signal that things are not so simple.
And if everyone is expecting one direction, often everything happens the other way around ✔️
Every word he says, every post — and the market instantly goes crazy. Sometimes it soars to the sky, sometimes it collapses without warning. 🕯
And all of this looks too precise to be a coincidence. Movements happen just in time, as if someone knows the script in advance.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump himself and his entourage are profiting from this volatility 💵 He clearly understands when and what to say to swing the market in the right direction.
And the most interesting thing — we still have to endure this show for at least three more years. 🚩
🪙At the moment, we are facing a dual situation. Yesterday we saw a good rise, but it was quickly pushed back down. On the daily chart - an unpleasant shadow of sales, the volume is present, but we did not go below 107 thousand. As long as we stay above 107 thousand - the chance for a reversal is still there.
We have two possible outcomes:
1️⃣We go back to 110 thousand and consolidate there. In this scenario, I will consider going long with targets around 115–116 thousand.
2️⃣We go below 107 thousand and trade there for some time, with a subsequent drop to 100 thousand and possibly lower. In this case, I will consider going short, but the main thing is to wait for confirmation.
I don't see any sense in writing about altcoins for now: wherever Bitcoin goes - the other coins will follow. Once the direction of BTC movement becomes clear, I will touch on the analytics for top altcoins.
It's good that I closed my longs on time yesterday - it wouldn't have been pleasant now 😁😁
🪙For BTC, we see a retest of the 107k zone. I previously mentioned that it would be quite logical to retest after breaking through.
📊The sales volumes were not large, and I believe that for now, there is no sense in pushing further. Many shorts have heavily accumulated in the 115-116k zone.
⚠️Even if we go down with an update to 100k, first we need to get rid of the excess passengers.
🤑I'm going long on XRP with targets around $2.6+- We see a break of the locally descending trend, which is already a good signal for growth. It's quite logical to test the area of $2.6 of the local high and there we will see what the reaction will be.
🤑On LINK, we see a vigorous reaction from the buyer after retesting the shadow and a strong level at $15.6. It is quite expected that we will go even higher to $20.5-21$, but there I believe we will encounter resistance in the form of a bearish trend and will retreat. Overall, the area around $20.5 serves as strong resistance.
🤑There are no special changes regarding SOL - everything is happening as planned, and for now, we are trading in a narrow range. The only thing is that we slightly pierced the level of 180$, but insignificantly, and the main thing is that we held above. We are currently consolidating above the level of 0.38 and then waiting for the mark of 200–208$, which will open the way for further growth.
🪙Regarding BTC, we see that we have finally been pushed above 110k — this is precisely the signal I was expecting over the weekend, but it happened a bit later. After retesting the shadow from October 10, there is a rather vigorous response from buyers and a consolidation above the key level at 107k. It would be quite logical to retest this zone again and then continue the growth to 116k.
Moreover, many are still convinced of a further decline and the beginning of a 'bear market', despite the fact that BTC is still holding above 100k. It is quite reasonable to liquidate their positions.
✔️This week, in my opinion, is expected to be bullish!
🪙I like how the week closed for ETH — the second candle in a row with a buying shadow. This is quite a good signal of interest from the buyer. And most importantly — the level of 0.38 was held. As a rule, when it is held, the growth continues further. Right now, the most important thing is to consolidate above 4130 (the level of 0.23 is there).
On the three-day candle, it is visible that after the retest of the shadow from October 10, we again left a buying shadow, and the new three-day candle has already pushed us above 4000. As far as I can see, everything indicates further growth this week.
✔️I am keeping my trade open, I have already moved the stop to breakeven.