[Bitcoin is soaring, altcoins are revelling! The crypto market is in the midst of a small spring, is the bull market back or is it just a kite flying high in the sky? ]
Haha, the cryptocurrency market these days is like a roller coaster ride, which has made everyone's heartbeat fly! This wave of Bitcoin's rise is indeed interesting, just like the "leader" in the crypto market. As long as it exerts its strength, the altcoins behind it (that is, Bitcoin's younger brothers) will follow and get excited. You see, Bitcoin is like ordering a large round of drinks in a bar, and everyone is starting to revel. The altcoins were originally lying in the corner drinking plain water, but when they saw the big brother take action, they also followed the table to drink high-end wine, and the price also soared.
However, whether the bull market is really back is a bit like staring at a kite in the sky. How high it can fly depends on the wind. Bitcoin drives altcoins, which is more of a boost to market confidence, and the recent good news from some large institutions and countries has added fuel to the market. Don't forget that the volatility of the crypto market is still large, and it is common to stand guard at high positions if you are not careful.
As for the comparison with A-shares, it feels a bit like the comparison between Big Brother and young people. A-shares are a bit like business men in suits, steady and steady, with small daily fluctuations, following the rhythm of "working and slacking off". The crypto market is young people wearing trendy brands and covered with tattoos, with hot tempers, emotions that come and go, and jumping up and down every day. Although it is exciting occasionally, it is also easy to fall.
In short, the current crypto market is more like a small spring. Whether it can really enter a big bull market depends on the subsequent market sentiment, policy support and macroeconomic trends. It's okay to have a good time in the short term, but you have to stay rational in the long run.
Without considering other structural problems, from a purely technical financial perspective, if we really want to release a large amount of money, we should only have the financial conditions to do so when the interest rate differential between China and the United States is zero. Because when the interest rate differential between China and the United States is negative, that is, when the interest rate in the United States is still higher than that in our country, there will still be a large amount of funds that tend to hold US dollars to earn high interest returns rather than convert them into RMB. So in this case, if you do a large amount of money release, the United States will definitely seize this opportunity and suddenly raise interest rates again, absorbing the funds released again and flowing to the United States.
Once the money is really released, after the asset prices of the real estate market and stock market are pushed up, a large amount of funds that have been untied will take the opportunity to sell, and then continue to choose to go to the United States. Therefore, before the interest rate differential has narrowed to zero, advocating for a large amount of money release is actually advocating for others to do the wedding dress. Although the stimulus of large-scale money release will raise domestic asset prices, due to the fact that the United States is raising interest rates at the same time internationally, the money release will bring greater capital outflow pressure, which will eventually be transmitted to the RMB exchange rate, forming a strong depreciation pressure. In fact, to put it bluntly, it is necessary to strike a balance between the exchange rate and asset prices. If we do a large-scale money release, we will choose to protect assets and give up the exchange rate. However, once the exchange rate is lost, how can we protect the assets?
If we release a large amount of money, the property market will rise again, and the economy may be active in the short term, but the exchange rate may have to depreciate significantly. After the depreciation, the US dollar is equivalent to a disguised appreciation. The prices of imported goods in the United States have fallen sharply, their inflation crisis has been resolved, and our property market bubble has become larger. This is equivalent to the risk being transferred from the United States to us.
The distribution system and the currency issuance system are currently very beneficial to big capital, which is equivalent to leaving them a backdoor in a targeted manner. If this loophole is not blocked, the effect of large-scale money release will definitely be half the effort with twice the results. Even if more money is released, the money will not reach the hands of the resident sector in the end. It may promote economic development in the short term, but it will definitely have a negative impact in the medium and long term. Because it cannot solve any fundamental problems, it will aggravate the current structural contradictions.
"Such a handsome founder was arrested" Pavel Durov
Impact on the TON ecosystem
Short-term negative impact: As a key figure behind TON, Durov's legal troubles have put a short-term freeze on the TON ecosystem, and the future direction and stability have become a problem. The market also doubts whether TON's decentralization is true, and everyone will pay attention to whether the project is too dependent on the founder.
Increasing regulatory pressure: Once Durov was arrested, the government set its sights on TON. Encrypted chat and decentralized platforms became the focus of attention, especially for fear that they would be used for bad things. Now, other countries may also join in the fun and investigate TON, which will increase the pressure of compliance.
If you are a spot investor, it is recommended that you operate once every 7 days or more and check the market once a day. Because only long-term investors can make money.
2. If you are a low-leverage investor with a leverage of no more than 3 times, it is recommended that you operate once every 3 days or more and check the market every 8-12 hours. Because the probability of a 30% drop in one day is not high now, you can make a lot of money by looking at the trend.
3. If you are a medium-leverage investor with a leverage of 3-10 times, it is recommended that you operate at most once a day and check the market every 1-2 hours. Because you can make a lot of money by catching the trend.
4. If you are a high-leverage trader with a leverage of 10-30 times, it is recommended that you operate no more than 3 times a day and check the market every 10-30 minutes. Because the handling fee will be higher if the number of operations is too many, and fewer operations can guarantee sleep, and can only make short-term quick money, and it is very likely to burst the position if the fluctuation is too large.
5. If you are a high leverage trader with leverage between 30-125 times, I suggest you transfer your coins to me. I will tell you how I went from a fortune of tens of millions to a ruined family in the past 10 years because of cryptocurrency speculation. Because no matter how much you earn now, it will not belong to you in the end.
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I've talked about this topic before Today, let’s talk about it from a different perspective.
There is no indication in nature that kindness is competitive. The lion is kind and if it doesn't eat the antelope, it will starve to death. Monkeys are kind and will not hurt their own kind to compete for the title of monkey king, otherwise their genes cannot be passed on.
But in human society, kindness has been praised since ancient times. Why? Because humans are not a species that competes alone. In fact, it can also be seen in other species that require cooperation. For example, elephants, killer whales In fact, when monkeys were fighting for the throne, they also stopped at the right time.
Wan Weigang said: Trusting others, even if it is credulity, is not a value that should be punished. What is even more terrifying is distrust.
The economic logic of trust is lower transaction costs If everything requires a credit intermediary Or you need to repeatedly confirm trust issues, or you need guarantees, Then the transaction cost will be very high In other words, trust can make cooperation smoother.
Singapore is a society with strong trust Singapore is small. If I find A to meet B and then do business with B's friend C, We always take A and B to share the money. This way no one has to be on guard against anyone.
The more turbulent the time, the more confused we are. The more you need to make a decision, the more confused you become. The more helpless you are, the more confused you become. Why?
Because confusion comes from lack of information. More information is only needed in the above cases If we do the same things every day, Then there is no need for new information, so there is no confusion.
But in this turbulent era, the outside world forces us to make decisions. The information is not ready for us. How to do it?
Let me give you a more specific example. If you have just arrived in Shanghai by high-speed train, after you walk out of Hongqiao Railway Station,
We seem to be rewarding high emotional intelligence. So what exactly is high emotional intelligence? Many people can't explain it clearly. When we don't understand the specific definition of a concept We are not qualified or even worthy to use this concept. It’s like you say you want to eat KFC, but you don’t even know what KFC is, so the KFC you’re talking about may not be the real KFC. Let me tell you my understanding First, the literal meaning: High self-emotional management skills So here comes the question When do we need to manage our emotions? When I'm alone, isn't it good for me to just follow my heart?
According to fo, most of the suffering of human beings comes from desire. But desire is endless After eating, I want to wear warm clothes Dress warmly and want to drive I want to go to heaven now that I have a car I want to go to Mars.
But this desire is the driving force behind human progress. Without this desire, we would probably be monkeys now. From a personal perspective, Those who are content with the status quo are mediocre Only those who are unwilling to give up can create greater achievements.
Yes, I said "possibly" This is a necessary but not sufficient condition.
If you are just unwilling, but your ability cannot keep up Or maybe you are too unwilling to accept it.
I am often asked what kind of business I can do. I usually answer: There are too many profitable businesses The key is what you can do
We usually discover some possible business opportunities randomly. But it's just a "maybe" You have to try
In fact, the market changes very quickly and is also very complex It is difficult for us to succeed by conceiving a business model directly from our brains. Test and iterate "From 0 to 1" is about how to start a business and find projects I'll tell you a simple idea If you are interested, read this book
The most important thing about a project is not what kind of business it can do. What competition will you face? you think
First, let me tell you three things not to do: 1. I will never go home even if I die. People must be ruthless and not retreat when they encounter difficulties. They must move forward first. 2. No matter how poor you are, don’t do bad things. Be a kind person. If you do bad things, God will punish you. If you do good things, even if God doesn’t hang you, at least you can sleep at night. 3. Don’t sleep under a bridge. People should have backbone and never beg for food no matter how poor they are.
Three things to do: 1. Be a person who gives to others: Even if I only have 800 yuan in my pocket, many valuable things do not require money. For example, you can enlighten others, even though I need enlightenment more at that time, which is called Dharma charity. For example, you can give others a smile, which is called facial charity. Financial charity is the lowest. Don't think you have nothing when you have no money.
Bodhisattvas fear the cause but not the result Bodhisattvas are afraid of causes, not consequences. If you have a tough question This is the result of the cause that was planted before. The cause has already been planted, and even Bodhisattvas cannot do anything about it. How do you think we can solve this problem?
So adjust your perspective and mindset You must accept the fruits of what you have sown. The only thing we can do is to plant new causes to change the results we get.
To be a person living in the future The present cannot be changed because it is the result of the past. This is not contradictory to "living in the present moment", but rather they are one and the same, one cause and one effect.
Only by satisfying the "three logical requirements" can you avoid working hard for several years before realizing that you are actually just enjoying yourself
The essence of business is value exchange Two keywords: “Value” and “Exchange”
What is self-congratulation? No value, or self-perceived value Then it is impossible to exchange
The most terrible thing about starting a business is self-entertainment Because this is persisting on the wrong path without knowing it There are two kinds of self-knowledge
The first one is that you can’t make any money at all This situation will make you suffer You won't be able to hold on. Then you will reflect and adjust your strategy
The second is to earn a small amount of money to make a living. This is the most terrible
What is the nature of arguing with a fool? It's my own competitive spirit But the problem is What's the point of arguing with a fool?
This is what I told myself What about me? Like most people, I like to teach others. I think I am better than others just because I read a few crappy books. So I like to chat with others So what is nagging? There is no point in repeating the same thing. The other party won't understand or listen to it.
Now that I think about it, I'm pretty stupid. Everyone has a different knowledge structure. What you tell him is just a piece of information. What is knowledge? What is information?
Teacher Wu Bofan often says: People who don't ask for help are generally great The general meaning is that as long as you don't ask for anything from others, It's all the same on a spiritual level. No matter what your background, identity, or how much wealth you have.
You will find that no matter who you are with or what you do, As long as you are too purposeful, Basically, it's not done well, or it's too awkward to interact with.
As long as you do not ask for anything, do not wait for anything, and do not rely on anything, You will feel relaxed. When you have no expectations, you have no worries This is also the central idea in Buddhism. When the four elements are empty, you can be free from suffering and attain happiness.