💥BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF market value exceeds gold ETF
-iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) asset management scale (AUM) has exceeded US$33.2 billion, surpassing the US$32 billion of iShares Gold Trust (IAU) which has been operating for nearly 20 years. #BTC #XAUUSD❤️
-Today, the US dollar index is close to 107; under the expectation of a strong dollar, US Treasury yields remain high, which is a strong suppression on safe-haven assets such as long bonds and gold. The market's appetite for risky assets (US stocks & Crypto) will maintain the shoe landing - after Trump takes office (January 20). https://x.com/funky_tooth/status/1857015191067574450

Short-term volatility risk this week ⚠️
TL;DR Twitter: @funky_tooth
+The surge in commodities puts pressure on inflation
+Further "expectation management" will be done in the speech of New York Fed officials on Tuesday
+The market will fluctuate 1-3 days before the release of PCE data on Friday
+It will suppress BTC and ETH from breaking ATH during the week
+The US stock and crypto markets can consider options to go long on volatility

📈 US dollar index (DXY): rose to about 103.00 (+0.09%) The strengthening of the US dollar indicates that the market's expectations for a global monetary easing cycle have increased, especially expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank.
💰 Commodity prices:
Gold: $2353.46/oz (+0.83%)
Silver: $31.74/oz (+4.58%)
Crude oil (WTI): $78.75/bbl (+1.22%)
Crude oil (Brent): $83.12/bbl (+1.25%)
+Commodity prices have risen sharply under the conditions of a strong dollar. This includes market expectations for interest rate cuts this year, but increases inflation expectations. This puts pressure on US stocks in the short term.
📉 US Treasury yields:
10-year US Treasury yields: 4.47%, down slightly (-0.14%)
+The decline in US Treasury yields reflects market concerns about the economic outlook and increased expectations of interest rate cuts. Weak employment data and commercial real estate defaults both indicate a weakening economy. The market still believes that a recession may occur after the mid-term cycle peak.
🔊 Fed officials' speeches:
On Tuesday, New York Fed President John C. Williams will deliver a speech. His previous stance was more hawkish, emphasizing the need to maintain tight monetary policy to ensure that inflation falls back to the 2% target. Therefore, it is expected that this speech will strengthen the management of market expectations and further suppress the market's overly optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.
📅 PCE data expectations:
PCE expected increase: 0.3%
Core PCE expected increase: 2.67-2.8%
📊 Importance of PCE data:
+ Publishing agency: PCE data is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of Commerce, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
+ Data collection: PCE data integrates sales data from a large number of companies, including actual sales data from retailers, manufacturers, and service providers.
+ Data coverage: PCE covers a wider range of goods and services.
+ Dynamic weight adjustment: The weight of the PCE price index is adjusted according to changes in consumer spending patterns.
Therefore, this PCE data is of great reference value for institutions to judge expectations of interest rate cuts in September.#BTC☀ #ETH