道壹 Trader

#特朗普就职百日 $BTC

💦 What is "Liquidity"? (1) 🤔
- Is M2 a liquidity indicator? Can M2 guide trading?

Follow X @cryptodaoyi

TL:DR
🔵 M2 (Broad Money Supply) is a stock of funds and does not reflect demand; it has not shown a strong correlation with risk assets over the long term, making it unsuitable as an indicator for liquidity trading.
🟡 Fed Net Liquidity is the total of bank reserves and high-powered money, directly affecting institutional financing and leverage. It has shown a high positive correlation with U.S. stocks and #BTC over the long term, making it more suitable for tracking macro liquidity as a trading indicator.
🔴 Bitcoin Weekly Price
————
💡 Interesting Insight:
The Fed's net liquidity indicator has only failed once in the past 5 years:
During the U.S. election = 14 weeks of Trump's trading peak
Net liquidity vs U.S. stock/BTC price divergence
So we can draw a preliminary conclusion:
1) In the short term: Major political events > Macro liquidity
2) In the medium to long term: Any divergence from macro liquidity represents a trading opportunity.
I.e., the divergence between asset prices and macro liquidity during the election period has already sown the seeds for the significant correction of risk assets this time.
3) Since March, net liquidity has rebounded, which may indicate that risk assets should undergo a round of correction. To what extent can this correction go?
This brings us to the Fed's balance sheet and U.S. Treasury...

💡Federal Reserve whistleblower Nick Timiraos's FOMC outlook:

Tonight, the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged, but will not adopt a dovish stance.
The market still harbors hopes for rate cuts, and there is a risk of adjustment in the US stock market.

Trading logic and judgment on US stock market trends
• The dot plot remains hawkish, providing no timeline for rate cuts.
• JPow's press conference does not avoid concerns about inflation, overall leaning towards "patient observation + vigilance on inflation."
• The market has already priced in the expectation of a rate cut in September or earlier (FedWatch: 90% chance of a 25BP cut), and may face a "hawkish slap in the face" after tonight.
• The probability of a short-term pullback in US stocks is high, especially for technology stocks (Nasdaq) which carry higher risks.
• The BTC futures gap has been filled, and it is not suitable to chase the highs! $BTC
#美联储FOMC会议

📊BTC<Spot Aggregate Order Book> Structure
- Currently, the buy order of $BTC lacks tiered support and has not formed a buy wall.

On the left side are buy orders (Bids), and on the right side are sell orders (Asks).

Order Depth:
Buy orders (within ±0.01% range) only amount to about $461K
Sell orders reach up to $7.07M

Severe imbalance between buy and sell orders
Buy order depth is extremely shallow, with only Bitfinex posting a $461K buy order, and other exchanges basically have no posted orders. Bitfinex has always been a “whale market,” and this buy order may be defensive rather than an aggressive buildup.
Sell orders exceed $7M, with the heaviest orders on Coinbase, Bybit, and Kraken. Sell orders are concentrated in the $95K - $110K range, with more orders posted as the price goes higher.

Feel free to follow x @cryptodaoyi

👉 Bulls lack a protective layer, and bears may break through price support at any time.
Again, the first support on the daily chart is below 92K, with strong support at 89.2K.

#加密市场回调

💡Understand the intentions of Wall Street institutions through BTC & ETH futures

Spying on the attitudes of institutions towards Bitcoin and Bitcoin, there is a huge difference
Institutions are willing to hold BTC futures contracts 😎
And ETH has been arbitraged 😭

Welcome to follow X @cryptodaoyi

Futures data is the options data of CME - "Chicago Mercantile Exchange"
It is currently the futures market with the largest BTC trading volume$BTC
One of the core tools that Wall Street has used to dominate the crypto market since this bull market cycle
In fact, this is more important than ETFs!
Because there are still a large number of retail investors in ETF shares
By the end of last year, more than 94% of BlackRock's BTC ETFs were still small retail investors
And the average account amount was only $14,000
And CME futures are basically a place for institutional leverage/hedging/arbitrage

📊Focus on the blue line in the figure - the premium rate of futures to spot!
The Premium level represents the buying of future contracts by institutions
There is a huge difference between BTC and ETH! No comparison, no harm

BTC: Overall more stable, maintaining an upward fluctuation between 0.52–0.64%.
Premium rises at a steady rate and is relatively stable. There is strong spot support. Institutions slowly build a long structure and are willing to hold positions steadily. And its premium is a leading indicator of BTC spot prices! It also proves that BTC prices are dominated by cme rather than CEX spot

ETH: It is very miserable. The premium trend rises and falls sharply, and fluctuates violently. It reflects the lack of buying support in the market. Institutions took a bite of meat and quickly closed their positions and poured it on 😆 It is dominated by CEX spot/perpetual. Therefore, institutions react passively and do futures and cross-product arbitrage. If retail investors do not fomo, institutions will not buy. If retail investors rush, institutions will arbitrage and pour it on

😘 According to the data as of noon today, the BTC futures premium is maintained very well, institutions are bullish on futures, and their willingness to hold is stable
$ETH
#Strategy增持比特币

This wave of low IV is too tempting: The quieter the market, the more greedy one should be

Recently, the 7-day implied volatility (IV) trend of BTC shows a clear periodic fluctuation pattern — peaks usually occur at the beginning and end of the month, which is highly synchronized with structural market events and macro rhythms.

Welcome to follow X @cryptodaoyi

Currently, BVIV7D (Bitcoin 7-day IV) is at 44.02, far below the mid-term historical average (55-65). This provides a highly attractive risk-reward ratio for long Vega (volatility) strategies.

Core strategy: Position during low IV and wait for periodic bursts
Last night, two sets of options combination strategies were executed:

Short-term Straddle/Strangle: Event-driven speculation targeting this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and Powell's (JPow) potential hawkish statements.

Mid-term IV long: Betting on a peak in volatility again in early June, with catalysts including:

Continuous deterioration of U.S. economic data

U.S. stocks may enter a main downward wave (C wave)

The operational goal is clear: control Theta decay while speculating on IV expansion.

The current IV structure signals very clearly: Don't fall asleep in low volatility; real opportunities hide when the market is calm $BTC #加密市场回调

💥BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF market value exceeds gold ETF
-iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) asset management scale (AUM) has exceeded US$33.2 billion, surpassing the US$32 billion of iShares Gold Trust (IAU) which has been operating for nearly 20 years. #BTC #XAUUSD❤️
-Today, the US dollar index is close to 107; under the expectation of a strong dollar, US Treasury yields remain high, which is a strong suppression on safe-haven assets such as long bonds and gold. The market's appetite for risky assets (US stocks & Crypto) will maintain the shoe landing - after Trump takes office (January 20). https://x.com/funky_tooth/status/1857015191067574450

Short-term volatility risk this week ⚠️
TL;DR Twitter: @funky_tooth
+The surge in commodities puts pressure on inflation
+Further "expectation management" will be done in the speech of New York Fed officials on Tuesday
+The market will fluctuate 1-3 days before the release of PCE data on Friday
+It will suppress BTC and ETH from breaking ATH during the week
+The US stock and crypto markets can consider options to go long on volatility

📈 US dollar index (DXY): rose to about 103.00 (+0.09%) The strengthening of the US dollar indicates that the market's expectations for a global monetary easing cycle have increased, especially expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank.
💰 Commodity prices:
Gold: $2353.46/oz (+0.83%)
Silver: $31.74/oz (+4.58%)
Crude oil (WTI): $78.75/bbl (+1.22%)
Crude oil (Brent): $83.12/bbl (+1.25%)
+Commodity prices have risen sharply under the conditions of a strong dollar. This includes market expectations for interest rate cuts this year, but increases inflation expectations. This puts pressure on US stocks in the short term.
📉 US Treasury yields:
10-year US Treasury yields: 4.47%, down slightly (-0.14%)
+The decline in US Treasury yields reflects market concerns about the economic outlook and increased expectations of interest rate cuts. Weak employment data and commercial real estate defaults both indicate a weakening economy. The market still believes that a recession may occur after the mid-term cycle peak.
🔊 Fed officials' speeches:
On Tuesday, New York Fed President John C. Williams will deliver a speech. His previous stance was more hawkish, emphasizing the need to maintain tight monetary policy to ensure that inflation falls back to the 2% target. Therefore, it is expected that this speech will strengthen the management of market expectations and further suppress the market's overly optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.
📅 PCE data expectations:
PCE expected increase: 0.3%
Core PCE expected increase: 2.67-2.8%
📊 Importance of PCE data:
+ Publishing agency: PCE data is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of Commerce, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
+ Data collection: PCE data integrates sales data from a large number of companies, including actual sales data from retailers, manufacturers, and service providers.
+ Data coverage: PCE covers a wider range of goods and services.
+ Dynamic weight adjustment: The weight of the PCE price index is adjusted according to changes in consumer spending patterns.
Therefore, this PCE data is of great reference value for institutions to judge expectations of interest rate cuts in September.#BTC☀ #ETH