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#FOMC 's pricing for a 50bp cut to #faiz has risen 43% in just a few hours.

It's up from 17% less than 24 hours ago, no news to trigger it, but maybe someone has learned something?

The fact that the US Federal Reserve #Fed is in a blackout period means that there is no statement from Fed officials on the outlook for monetary policy.
Going into the blackout, Fed officials played as if they had made a gain other than 25bp.
And now, the possibility of a 50bp rate hike has increased. It's not uncommon for 'news leaks' to come if the Fed (with Powell or his encouragement) sees that something has changed and that there needs to be a bigger cut.

Kamala Leads #Harris , Donald #Trump 47% to 42%, According to Comprehensive Poll After Televised Presidential Debate - REUTERS/IPSOS POLL

JPMorgan expects #Fed to cut rates by 50bp next week

I previously reported that Citi had downgraded its call for a 50bp rate cut next week to 25bp. Analysts there are expecting 50bp in November and December

JP Morgan is sticking with its 50bp rate cut forecast next week:

The #Enflasyon report could push some #FOMC members to cut rates by 25bp. We still see a compelling case for a 50bp move.

JPM quote:
focus shifts to labor market weakness, JPM Asset Management expects 25 basis point rate cut next week:

"Inflation is now at room temperature, there really is no significant inflation problem"CPI result "does not warrant any drastic action by the Fed and I would be happy to see 25 basis points next week"

Citigroup lowered its forecast of a 50 basis point cut to 25 basis points ahead of the September inflation data from #faiz .

Citigroup now forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in September ahead of the CPI (and the US jobs report last Friday), down from 50 basis points. #Enflasyon data did not support a 50 basis point cut
While their expectations for September have softened a bit, they are expecting a 50 basis point cut in November and December.

#Fed to cut #faiz rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining three policy meetings this year - Reuters poll

92 of 101 economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut next week
65 of 95 economists expect three 25 basis point rate cuts over the rest of the year
54 of 71 economists say the Fed is 'unlikely' to cut 50 basis points at any meeting

On the final front, five other economists believe a 50 basis point rate cut this year is 'very unlikely'. Thirteen, meanwhile, say it is 'likely' and four say it is 'very likely' the Fed will make a big move.

The poll shows a clear expectation that the Fed will cut only 25 basis points at its meeting next week. And for the year itself, there is a stronger belief in three rate cuts after this narrative took hold in August (as seen in the visual above).

For the US #enflasyon data to be announced today, the institutions' estimates are as follows:

#Harris 's performance was found to be more successful than #Trump 's, in general, Trump, who was 6 points ahead in the betting before the debate, is now neck and neck with Harris.

Markets also seem to find Harris' performance positive in the Trump Harris debate.
Bonds fall, Euro rises

#bitcoin Second batch of short positions added at 57500, I will add #short little by little as it increases and write it down.

#Trump and #Harris will begin their debates on ABC News at 04:00 in the morning (UTC +3). According to Polymarkets data, Trump appears to be ahead by 6 points in the presidential race before the debate.

#bitcoin 56450 added the first batch of #short positions, I will add #short little by little as it increases. Do you want me to open a short on #lunc ?

Changpeng Zhao Banned for Life by #Binance

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, known by the alias #CZ , has been given a lifetime ban from the company.

Initial reports suggested a three-year ban, but recent updates from Axios have confirmed a permanent ban. The decision prevents CZ from returning to any leadership role at Binance.
Zhao faced multiple charges related to Binance’s US operations, leading him to step down as CEO in November 2023 and be replaced by Richard Teng. In May 2024, Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison for financial crimes, contrary to expectations of a longer sentence.
The charges against Zhao included offering unregistered securities, market manipulation, and failing to comply with anti-money laundering regulations. Binance remains the largest cryptocurrency exchange globally, but has faced significant regulatory issues. CZ’s resignation was seen as part of a deal with US authorities, and a lifetime ban was a key condition of the deal.

Zhao was previously Binance’s sole director. Following his departure, the company now has a seven-member board of directors, including two external members appointed by the DOJ to ensure regulatory compliance.
CZ has stated that he has no plans to lead any company in the future and will focus on investing in emerging technologies, particularly blockchain and artificial intelligence. Following a $50 million fine and a prison sentence, Zhao will be released on September 29. With his lifetime ban from Binance, the industry will be closely monitoring his future investment choices.
Under CZ’s leadership, Binance has emerged as the world’s top crypto exchange. The industry now waits to see how Binance will fare in his absence.

#Trump : US to be leader in #kripto money

Important topics from Republican Party candidate Trump's speech:

For every new regulation, he will easily end 10 regulations

"US to be leader in cryptocurrency"

He says there will be no tax on Social Security benefits
Corporate tax rate for goods manufactured in the US will be lowered to 15%

Tariffs will be increased on products from other countries

He says the initial tariffs have no inflationary effect

We will lower mortgage interest rates to 3% - perhaps even lower

A sovereign wealth fund will be created that will benefit the US people

He will build extraordinary national projects

The Wealth Fund will pay down the national debt

After yesterday's Jolts data, expectations for a 50 basis point #faiz reduction seem to have increased moderately.

According to CME data, traders' expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut have increased to 41%, while a 25 basis point reduction is at 59%.

While the probability of a 50 basis point reduction is at 35% on betting sites, 62% think there will be a 25 basis point reduction.

Everything will become clear with Friday's non-farm payrolls data. Markets react very strongly to the data.

According to Bloomberg; Bets on a 50-Point Cut of #Fed to #Faiz This Month Seem to Rise. Interest rate option traders have increased their bets that the Fed will start its rate-cutting cycle this month with a half-point cut, reflecting growing speculation that policymakers will move aggressively to prevent the economy from stumbling. Options tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate show open interest, or the amount of positions held by investors, rising in a series of call contracts set to expire on Sept. 13, five days before the central bank’s post-meeting announcement