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$BTC
Once again breaking the 100,000 mark!
Just as I said back then, over 10,000 BTC is the bottom!
The big moment has arrived as expected!
Once again breaking the 100,000 mark!
Just as I said back then, over 10,000 BTC is the bottom!
The big moment has arrived as expected!
The current market is in the brewing stage before an explosion. The longer the consolidation lasts, the more intense the subsequent market explosion will be, and the increase will be more astonishing.
A massive market is about to start, and the bears will soon feel the real impact!
There is no need to panic in the face of consolidation; its essence is to eliminate those indecisive retail investors.
In order for Bitcoin to reach higher levels, the operators must consolidate the foundation through repeated fluctuations.
Ultimately, $74,501 is expected to become an unbreakable bottom. Once the foundation is solidified, Bitcoin is expected to strongly break through the $100,000, $200,000, and even $300,000 thresholds!
A massive market is about to start, and the bears will soon feel the real impact!
There is no need to panic in the face of consolidation; its essence is to eliminate those indecisive retail investors.
In order for Bitcoin to reach higher levels, the operators must consolidate the foundation through repeated fluctuations.
Ultimately, $74,501 is expected to become an unbreakable bottom. Once the foundation is solidified, Bitcoin is expected to strongly break through the $100,000, $200,000, and even $300,000 thresholds!
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The various bearish factors in the first half of the year have basically been released, and the market is expected to gradually warm up in the second half.
From the trend, this definitely does not look like a bear market. If it were a real bear, the market index would have fallen to 40,000 or 50,000 long ago, instead of occasionally surging to 90,000 or 100,000. This is actually the later stage of a bull market; it's just that this time, almost all small-cap coins have been wiped out.
There are too many projects, and capital cannot comprehensively uplift them, so it can only rotate selectively. Last year it was the AI sector, the year before it was inscriptions, and this year will likely follow a similar rhythm, with batch speculation being a common tactic of the main players.
From the trend, this definitely does not look like a bear market. If it were a real bear, the market index would have fallen to 40,000 or 50,000 long ago, instead of occasionally surging to 90,000 or 100,000. This is actually the later stage of a bull market; it's just that this time, almost all small-cap coins have been wiped out.
There are too many projects, and capital cannot comprehensively uplift them, so it can only rotate selectively. Last year it was the AI sector, the year before it was inscriptions, and this year will likely follow a similar rhythm, with batch speculation being a common tactic of the main players.
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Ethereum's official announcement claims to have just completed the largest upgrade in history,
however the market seems unconvinced, with the coin price remaining stable,
even gas fees continue to hover around 1...
however the market seems unconvinced, with the coin price remaining stable,
even gas fees continue to hover around 1...
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The Future Potential Narrative of Stablecoins
Stablecoins like USDT and USDC have seen a continuous growth in market capitalization, reflecting the real demand for them in the market. Investors, whether bullish or bearish, choose to hold stablecoins while waiting for a more suitable entry point.
This is a kind of market consensus psychology that, once activated, can erupt like a torrent, making it difficult to contain.
Stablecoins like USDT and USDC have seen a continuous growth in market capitalization, reflecting the real demand for them in the market. Investors, whether bullish or bearish, choose to hold stablecoins while waiting for a more suitable entry point.
This is a kind of market consensus psychology that, once activated, can erupt like a torrent, making it difficult to contain.
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Let me analyze this. The large funds coming in from outside are either buying BTC or buying ETH.
But if they are buying BTC, it's basically impossible to hit a landmine, and instead, they are very likely to have made a substantial profit.
So from the process of elimination, that "unlucky guy" is likely to have rushed into Ethereum!
But if they are buying BTC, it's basically impossible to hit a landmine, and instead, they are very likely to have made a substantial profit.
So from the process of elimination, that "unlucky guy" is likely to have rushed into Ethereum!
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Update on May 3
The next key date is May 7, as two significant events will occur on this day:
1. Ethereum Major Upgrade
2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Meeting
Both of these factors could have a significant impact on the market and can be seen as key signals for the entire market in May.
If Bitcoin intends to continue its upward momentum, it is very likely to start ahead of the official announcement of favorable news. Therefore, last night Bitcoin once touched 97,895, and Ethereum also briefly broke through 1,870, and is currently still fluctuating near the pressure zone of the daily and 4-hour charts (around below 1,850).
From the data, the shorts have basically been cleared, and the bulls have become the obvious main force.
The next key date is May 7, as two significant events will occur on this day:
1. Ethereum Major Upgrade
2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Meeting
Both of these factors could have a significant impact on the market and can be seen as key signals for the entire market in May.
If Bitcoin intends to continue its upward momentum, it is very likely to start ahead of the official announcement of favorable news. Therefore, last night Bitcoin once touched 97,895, and Ethereum also briefly broke through 1,870, and is currently still fluctuating near the pressure zone of the daily and 4-hour charts (around below 1,850).
From the data, the shorts have basically been cleared, and the bulls have become the obvious main force.
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A friend recently asked: Has Bitcoin entered a reversal phase?
Here is a unified answer: Not yet. It's not a reversal, but it may face further pressure. Due to the market's decreasing expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and even beginning to question whether there will be a rate cut in June, overall liquidity has not improved and may actually tighten further, especially against the backdrop of the U.S. increasing bond sales.
Currently, Bitcoin's rise is more driven by the correlation with the U.S. stock market. However, overall, the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market remains weak, particularly in the altcoin sector, which still lacks vitality.
Here is a unified answer: Not yet. It's not a reversal, but it may face further pressure. Due to the market's decreasing expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and even beginning to question whether there will be a rate cut in June, overall liquidity has not improved and may actually tighten further, especially against the backdrop of the U.S. increasing bond sales.
Currently, Bitcoin's rise is more driven by the correlation with the U.S. stock market. However, overall, the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market remains weak, particularly in the altcoin sector, which still lacks vitality.
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Musk has left the White House, but the so-called 'efficient team' he left behind is a complete mess. Almost every day, explosive scandals are exposed, yet not a single person has been formally prosecuted. Is it really true that in this 'political swamp' of Washington, no one is guilty? Various rumors are rampant. The MAGA movement, like all large grassroots movements, relies more on symbols, slogans, and passionate mobilization; the facts and truths seem to be of little importance. Some media report that Musk's so-called 'cost-saving' measures do not come close to compensating for the damage he has caused. For example, after his massive layoffs, the recent frequency of space accidents at the U.S. space agency has already been enough to cause social upheaval.
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[Bitcoin Tonight's Trend Prediction: Breaking 97,000 USD, Next Stop 100,000?]
Yesterday, Bitcoin successfully broke through the 97,000 USD mark, setting a new recent high, and the entire market was abuzz. But the key question is: can we see 100,000 USD tonight?
From a technical perspective:
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin has continuously broken through highs with no significant divergence, still in a strong upward channel.
Although the RSI is in the overbought zone, there is no obvious reversal, indicating that the strong will remain strong.
After a quick rebound from 95,000 on the hourly chart, it indicates that buying interest below is very strong, and the market makers do not want the price to drop too much.
On the capital and emotional front:
The on-chain premium rate of USDT continues to expand, indicating that off-market funds are continuously flowing in;
From a technical perspective:
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin has continuously broken through highs with no significant divergence, still in a strong upward channel.
Although the RSI is in the overbought zone, there is no obvious reversal, indicating that the strong will remain strong.
After a quick rebound from 95,000 on the hourly chart, it indicates that buying interest below is very strong, and the market makers do not want the price to drop too much.
On the capital and emotional front:
The on-chain premium rate of USDT continues to expand, indicating that off-market funds are continuously flowing in;
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The key point of this message is not to announce an imminent interest rate cut, but to convey a signal: if four rate cuts are ultimately not realized, the consequences will be very serious.
The market has already priced in the expectation of four rate cuts.
The market has already priced in the expectation of four rate cuts.
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【May Day Spell? Bitcoin During the Holiday】
2019: Rise
2020: Rise
2021: Rise
2022: Fall (the only time)
2023: Rise
2024: Rise
2025: Will it continue to rise?
Can history repeat itself, or will it be broken this time?
The May Day market is about to be revealed, what are your thoughts?
2019: Rise
2020: Rise
2021: Rise
2022: Fall (the only time)
2023: Rise
2024: Rise
2025: Will it continue to rise?
Can history repeat itself, or will it be broken this time?
The May Day market is about to be revealed, what are your thoughts?
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In a bear market, retail investors often do not actually incur losses—because most people do not enter the market at all.
However, in a bull market, it is the retail investors who end up losing money. The reason is that they are accustomed to pyramid-style averaging down: investing 10,000 yuan when ETH is at 3,000 points, and when it rises to 3,500 points, they feel bullish and increase their investment to 50,000 yuan; when it hits 4,000 points, they are even more excited and suddenly increase their investment to 200,000 yuan. As a result, when the market pulls back from 4,000 points to 3,500 points, they see a significant loss on their account.
However, in a bull market, it is the retail investors who end up losing money. The reason is that they are accustomed to pyramid-style averaging down: investing 10,000 yuan when ETH is at 3,000 points, and when it rises to 3,500 points, they feel bullish and increase their investment to 50,000 yuan; when it hits 4,000 points, they are even more excited and suddenly increase their investment to 200,000 yuan. As a result, when the market pulls back from 4,000 points to 3,500 points, they see a significant loss on their account.
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The opportunity that truly warrants a significant investment in Bitcoin occurs approximately once every 1410 days.
Looking back at Bitcoin's history, as of now, the monthly oversold signal has only appeared three times:
1. The first time was in 2015, with a price of about $152;
2. The second time appeared in 2019, dropping to about $3,670;
3. The third time occurred in 2022, bottoming out around $18,183.
The intervals between the three occurrences were 1520 days and 1300 days respectively. Based on this cycle, the next similar opportunity is likely to fall between September 2026 and January 2027.
Looking back at Bitcoin's history, as of now, the monthly oversold signal has only appeared three times:
1. The first time was in 2015, with a price of about $152;
2. The second time appeared in 2019, dropping to about $3,670;
3. The third time occurred in 2022, bottoming out around $18,183.
The intervals between the three occurrences were 1520 days and 1300 days respectively. Based on this cycle, the next similar opportunity is likely to fall between September 2026 and January 2027.
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MicroStrategy essentially relies on continuously buying Bitcoin, yet its market value has already surpassed that of BNB.
It seems that this company only needs three people:
A CEO, specifically responsible for endorsing Bitcoin
A CFO, responsible for continuously purchasing Bitcoin
A CTO, to maintain the image of 'we are still doing enterprise software'.
On the Binance side, they have to constantly fine-tune business strategies to align with market trends, continuously expand recruitment to cope with multi-line development, and handle various trivial matters, just to barely keep up with MicroStrategy's market value performance.
It seems that this company only needs three people:
A CEO, specifically responsible for endorsing Bitcoin
A CFO, responsible for continuously purchasing Bitcoin
A CTO, to maintain the image of 'we are still doing enterprise software'.
On the Binance side, they have to constantly fine-tune business strategies to align with market trends, continuously expand recruitment to cope with multi-line development, and handle various trivial matters, just to barely keep up with MicroStrategy's market value performance.
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